1955-2005年中国极端气温的变化

利用1955-2005年中国234站逐日最高、最低气温资料,通过计算趋势系数等,研究了中国年、季极端气温变化趋势的时空特征。结果表明：空间分布上,我国年和四季的极端低温均表现出稳定的增温趋势;年、春季和夏季极端高温在黄河下游地区出现了较明显的降温趋势,而在华南地区增温趋势较显著;时间演变上,无论年还是四季,极端低温的增温幅度明显大于极端高温的增幅;极端气温在四季均有增温趋势,尤其以冬季的升温最明显;年极端高温和低温的年代际变化基本一致。     

Spatial asymmetry of temperature trends over India and possible role of aerosols

Dissimilarities in temperature trends in space and time over the Indian region have been examined to look for signatures of aerosols’ influence. Separate temperature time series for North and South India were constructed for dry (November–May) and wet (June–October) seasons. Temperature trend for the entire period 1901–2007 and different subperiods of 1901–1950, 1951–1990, 1971–2007, and 1991–2007 have been examined to isolate the aerosol and other greenhouse gas influences on temperatures. Maximum (daytime) temperatures during dry season corresponding to North and South India show significant warming trend of 0.8 and 1.0?°C per hundred years during the period 1901–2007, while minimum temperature shows nebulous trend of 0.2 and 0.3?°C per hundred years over North and South India, respectively. During the wet season, maximum temperature shows nearly half of dry season maximum temperature warming trend. However, asymmetry is observed in dry season maximum temperature trend during post-industrial period 1951–1990 wherein the North/South India shows decreasing/increasing trends, while during the recent period 1991–2007 trends are uniformly positive for both the regions. Spatial and temporal asymmetry in observed trends clearly point to the role of aerosols in lowering temperature trends over northern India. Atmospheric aerosols could cause a negative climate forcing that can modulate the regional surface temperature trends in a significant way. As this forcing acts differentially on day and night temperatures, trends in diurnal temperature range (DTR) provide a direct assessment of impacts of aerosols on temperature trends. Time series of diurnal temperature range for dry and wet seasons have been examined separately for North and South India. Over North India, the DTR for dry season has increased gradually during the period 1901–1970 and thereafter showed decreasing trend, while trends in temperature range over Southern India were almost opposite in phase with North India. The aerosol and greenhouse gases seem to play an important role in the spatial and temporal variability of temperature range over India.     

Development of temperatures in the Kingdom of Bahrain from 1947 to 2005

A new look is focused in this study on the analysis of mean temperatures for Bahrain, as observed at its International Airport for the 59 years extending from 1947 to 2005. The temporal trends indicate significant warming of the dry-season temperatures of 0.166°C decade^?1. In particular, the summer months of May to July and October demonstrate statistically significant trends of 0.172 to 0.247°C decade^?1. There is a tendency for the wet season months to show both decreases and increases in their temperatures though the temporal trends are not significant. The decade of 1991-2000 emerged as a period of conspicuous warming as well as increase in the occurrence of unusual mean temperatures and the number of months per year with above-average temperature. No significant trend in intraannual and intraseasonal temperature variabilities is discerned, but the wet season shows predominantly higher within-season variability in temperatures as compared to the dry season. Further analyses have been carried out on the available extreme temperature data for the period 1981-2005 in an attempt to search for a possible source of climatic and/or non-climatic factors, such as intensifying desertification and rapid urbanization. By and large, the rates of diurnal temperature ranges have increased due to significantly higher rates of increasing maximum in comparison to increasing minimum temperatures. The warming rate of the overall dry season during the day is seven times that during night. However, the nocturnal temperature for the overall wet season has warmed significantly at a rate more than three times that of the overall dry season. There is a sufficient evidence that sources of rapid urbanization around the area of records seem to be a major contributor to the observed rates of temperature. Both the urbanization and the effect of the large water body of the Gulf surrounding the Island of Bahrain seem to have offset the effect of desertification on temperature changes.     

Statistical properties of the temperature, relative humidity, and net solar radiation in the Blue Nile-eastern Sudan region

This paper presents the results of the first stage of an ongoing project of evaluating the spatial and temporal variability of soil water as fundamental factors for vegetation regeneration in the arid ecosystems in the Blue Nile-eastern Sudan. The specific aim of the present study is to understand the temporal and spatial variations of the major climate variables in the region and discuss its relevance to regional climate variability and changes. In this case, we systematically analyze the major climate variables (maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, and net solar radiation). To evaluate the different characteristics of the climate variables, Mann–Kendall method, two-phase regression scheme, and wavelet transform technique are used; each method has its own strength and weakness, and the results of the three methods complement each other. The results show that the annual and seasonal maximum temperatures are increasing significantly. The annual minimum temperature and minimum temperature in dry seasons are decreasing. The minimum temperature in rainy season is increasing with a smaller rate as compared with the increase of maximum temperature in the season. The difference between maximum and minimum temperature is increasing in all the seasons. Net solar radiation in the region shows a significant increasing trend in all seasons, which corresponds well with the changes of maximum temperature. Besides, significant decreasing trends can be identified for relative humidity in all the seasons.     

Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China

On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend. All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α?=?0.05 for the minimum temperature time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.     

中国近四十年最高最低温度变化

利用中国１９５１－１９９０年的实测资料，在剔除测站迁移和城市化热岛效应对气候变化趋势的可能影响之后，研究了中国最高温度、最低温度的时空变化趋势特点。结果表明，最高温度在９５°Ｅ以西及黄河以北地区普遍呈增温趋势，而在东部黄河以南却呈降温趋势；最低温度在全国普遍呈增温趋势，在高纬度地区增暖最明显。这种变化使得日较差表现出明显的减少趋势。虽然最高、最低温度变化的准周期性规律是一致的，但它们的线性变化趋势却呈现出明显的不对称性。最低温度的显著升高反映了近４０ａ中温室效应持续加强的迹象。进一步的分析表明，最高最低温度变化是与日照条件及大气水分条件相关联的     

Trends, stability and stress in the Colombian Central Andes

Mountain ecosystems have been projected to experience faster rates of warming than surrounding lowlands. These changes in climatic conditions could have significant impacts on high-altitude Andean environments, affecting the quality and magnitude of their economic and environmental services. Even though long-term data in these regions are limited, it is important to identify any discernible long-term trends in local climatic conditions. Time series of several variables were analyzed to detect statistically significant long-term linear trends that occurred over recent years in a páramo ecosystem of the Colombian Central Andes. Records included cloud characteristics, sunshine, rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and relative humidity. Conditions of atmospheric stability were also explored. Total sunshine exhibited decreasing trends ranging from ?3.7 to ?8.5% per decade at altitudes around the pluviometric optimum. The strongest changes in sunshine occurred during the December-January-February season. Mean relative humidity observed at altitudes around and below this threshold showed increasing trends of +0.6 to +0.7% per decade. Annual rainfall and mean relative humidity above the optimum showed decreasing trends ranging from ?7 to ?11% per decade and from ?1.5 to ?3.6% per decade, respectively. Minimum temperatures on the coldest days and maximum temperatures on the warmest days exhibited increasing trends at all altitudes ranging from +0.1 to +0.6, and from +0.2 to +1.1°C per decade, respectively. Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures at higher altitudes were significantly greater than those observed in average at lower altitudes. The strongest changes in minimum temperatures, particularly, occurred during the December–January–February and June–July–August dry seasons. All these changes suggest that atmospheric conditions in the area are shifting from statically unstable conditions to conditionally unstable or statically stable conditions. Observed historical trends indicate that climate impacts and other human activities have stressed these unique and fragile environments.     

The twentieth century contiguous US temperature changes indicated by daily data and higher statistical moments

The daily surface air temperature data are used to assess the climate changes of the contiguous United States during the period of 1901 to 2000. The assessment is made through the first four statistical moments of the daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature anomalies, the linear trends of the moments, and the changes of the anomalies?? probability density functions. The results on the first moment, i.e., the mean, are compared with the existing ones in terms of intra-annual means and their linear trends. Our first moment results agree with known ones and demonstrate a decrease from the 1930s to the 1960s and an increase from the 1970s to 2000. The temperature fluctuation is the smallest in the 1960s among the decades from 1931 to 2000. The trends of the higher (second-, third- and fourth-order) moments of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures are calculated for the periods 1901?C2000, 1910?C1945, 1946?C1975, and 1976?C2000. The results show a decreasing trend of the second- and third-order moments of all the temperatures. The fourth-order moments of the mean and maximum surface air temperatures have increasing trends, but that of the minimum surface air temperature has a decreasing trend. The seasonal histograms of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures are calculated for the three periods 1910?C1945, 1946?C1975, and 1976?C2000 for the stations which have the largest trend of maximum daily surface air temperature. An obvious change has been identified in the probability density functions. Among the changes of statistical parameters, the ones for the minimum temperature are larger than those for the maximum and mean temperatures.     

ON CHANGES OF CHINA’S MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN 1951-1990

Based on China's observational data in 1951-1990,after minimizing the possible biases caused by station relocation and urban heat island,the spatial and temporal distributions of trends for maximum and minimum temperatures are studied.The results show that increasing trends of maximum temperatures are in the areas west to 95°E,and north to the Huanghe (Yellow) River,while decreasing trends exist in eastern China south to the Yellow River.Minimum temperatures are generally increasing throughout China,with dominant warming trends at the higher latitudes.This resulted in very obvious decreasing trends in diurnal temperature ranges.The periodic cycles are consistent between the maximum and minimum temperatures,but asymmetric trends are very obvious.The significant increase of minimum(nighttime) temperatures reflects the evidence of enhancement of greenhouse effect.Further analysis shows that the changes of maximum and minimum temperatures are mainly related to sunshine duration and atmospheric water vapor content.     

1951～2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化

利用1951～2002年全国733个台站的月平均最高、最低气温资料,对我国年、季平均最高、最低气温变化趋势的空间分布状况和时间变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:近52年来,我国平均最高气温的变化特征呈现北方增暖明显、南方变化不明显或呈弱降温趋势;年平均最低气温全国各地基本一致,呈明显的变暖趋势;无论是年还是季,平均最低气温的增暖幅度明显大于平均最高气温的增幅;我国年平均日较差多呈下降趋势,并在我国北方地区尤为明显,各季平均日较差亦均呈下降趋势,并以冬季的下降幅度为最大;年平均最高气温和最低气温的变化在年代际变化上基本呈现较为一致的步伐,即52年来主要的变暖均是从20世纪80年代中期开始,均在90年代后期达到了近52年来的历史新高,近年来又略有回落.     

近46年来华东及周围地区最高与最低气温时空演变的气候特征

选用华东及周围地区157个气象观测站1960-2005年6~8月逐日最高、 最低气温资料, 利用分段线性突变检验、 EOF分解等方法, 分析了我国华东地区最高, 最低气温的空间分布及时间演变特征。结果表明： 高温主要出现在长江以南; 长江以北夏季气温分布受地形影响显著。最高气温分布具有良好的空间一致性, 主要受大尺度天气系统影响; 最低气温更多表现出局地变化特征; 华东夏季最高、 最低气温分布形态较为类似, 有“全区一致型”和“南北反向型”两种, 1980年是夏季气温的一个突变点。1980年以前, 最高、 最低气温都呈下降趋势; 1980年以后则呈升温趋势; 最高气温的演变以“高温-低温-高温”的年代际振荡为主, 极端高温主要发生在两个时段： 第一次在1960-1965年之间; 第二次在2000年以后, 而极端最低气温以升温趋势为主。     

1951—2010年大连市气温变化特征

利用1951—2010年大连市气温资料,采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率、Mann-Kendal1突变分析等方法对年和季平均气温、最高最低气温变化特征进行了分析和突变检验。结果表明：大连市年和季平均气温呈上升趋势,进入21世纪,升温趋势有所减缓;大连市年平均气温的增温速率为0.33/10 a,明显高于近50 a中国平均增温速率0.22/10 a,更高于近50 a全球平均0.13/10 a的增温速率。大连市平均气温的升高主要发生在春季和冬季;年平均最低气温的升温幅度大于年平均最高气温的升温幅度;年、季平均气温存在突变,突变始于1987—1990年前后,突变前后平均气温均值相差较大;年、季平均最高气温和最低气温大都存在突变,但秋季平均最高气温无突变。     

1951—2010年大连市气温变化特征

利用1951—2010年大连市气温资料,采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率、Mann-Kendal1突变分析等方法对年和季平均气温、最高最低气温变化特征进行了分析和突变检验。结果表明：大连市年和季平均气温呈上升趋势,进入21世纪,升温趋势有所减缓;大连市年平均气温的增温速率为0.33/10 a,明显高于近50 a中国平均增温...     

Variations and trends in annual and seasonal air temperatures in Greece determined from ground and satellite measurements

Summary The variations and trends in annual and seasonal air temperatures in Greece were examined on the basis of ground measurements for 25 stations during the period 1951–1993, and satellite measurements for the south eastern Mediterranean during the period 1979–1991. Data were smoothed using a 5-year running mean and were thereafter examined by regression analysis to define trends in the long duration time series. Data were also examined to detect abrupt changes and trends in the long duration annual, winter and summer series of mean maximum, mean minimum and mean temperatures. An overall cooling trend was detected for the majority of stations in winter over the entire period; the same cooling trend was also recognised for the annual and summer mean values, although a reverse warming trend was detected around the mid-70s at several stations. Satellite measurements indicate a slight warming trend, although this is not statistically significant. Considering the results of the regression analysis and the statistical tests applied to the 25 stations, it may be concluded that annual mean temperatures are dominated by an overall cooling trend, with the exception of stations in urban areas where urbanisation effects may have resulted in a warming trend. Summer temperatures, however, exhibit a warming trend roughly after 1975 at most stations.With 5 Figures     

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系

利用1951-2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气...     

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系

利用1951—2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60 a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气温和平均最低气温均为增温趋势;夏季气温日较差下降趋势明显,导致夏季昼夜温差减小;极端高温、低温的发生日数均呈下降趋势。极端气温与平均气温之间存在明显的相关性,且极端低温对平均气温影响更为明显。     

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80–2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20–2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971–2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (?0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (?0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011–2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of trends and variability in diurnal temperature ranges of Turkey

Summary Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in the diurnal temperature ranges (DTRs) of the 70 stations and the role of maximum and minimum temperatures on the year-to-year variability and the long-term trends of the DTRs in Turkey have been investigated for the period 1929–1999. The principal results of the study are as follows:(i) The daytime maximum temperatures have shown weak warming and cooling in comparison with significant warming of the night-time minimum temperatures in many regions of Turkey and in most seasons. (ii) The DTRs have significantly decreased at most of the urbanised and rapidly urbanising stations throughout the seasons except partly in winter, without showing an apparent north/south (west–east) and land/sea gradient. (iii) Annual and seasonal DTRs of some stations have shown significant increasing trends. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of significant increasing trends in the DTR series is geographically incoherent across the country in all seasons and annually, as compared with significantly decreased DTRs. (iv) Autumn and summer DTRs have decreased generally at a higher rate than in winter and spring. (v) Changes in the temperature regime of Turkey towards the more temperate and/or warmer climate conditions are most strongly related with the significant night-time warming in spring and summer. (vi) Magnitudes and signs of correlation coefficients and correlation patterns between the DTRs and the maximum and minimum temperatures have revealed that there is an opposite physical control mechanism on the year-to-year variability and the long-term variations and trends in the DTRs, particularly for the annual, spring and summer series. (vii) Significant increases of the night-time temperatures have most likely led to strong decreasing trends in the DTRs of most stations during the spring and summer seasons and annually and of some stations during winter and autumn. (viii) The asymmetric trends and the symmetric, but with different magnitude, trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures resulted in a significant decrease in the DTRs of many stations and are a considerable signal of ongoing changes in the climatic variability of Turkey.     

Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India

This study investigated the trends in rainfall and temperature and the possibility of any rational relationship between the trends over the homogeneous regions over India. Annual maximum temperature shows an increasing trend in all the homogeneous temperature regions and corresponding annual rainfall also follow the same pattern in all the regions, except North East. As far as monthly analysis is concerned, no definite pattern has been observed between trends in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, except during October. Increasing trends of maximum and minimum temperature during October accelerate the water vapor demand and most of the lakes, rivers, ponds and other water bodies with no limitation of water availability during this time fulfills the water vapor demand and shows an increasing trend of rainfall activity. This study shows there exists no direct relationship between increasing rainfall and increasing maximum temperature when monthly or seasonal pattern is concerned over meteorological subdivisions of India, however we can make a conclusion that the relation between the trends of rainfall and temperature have large scale spatial and temporal dependence.     

The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends

Regional changes in California surface temperatures over the last 80 years are analyzed using station data from the US Historical Climate Network and the National Weather Service Cooperative Network. Statistical analyses using annual and seasonal temperature data over the last 80 years show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns in trends of maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to trends of minimum temperature (Tmin). For trends computed between 1918 and 2006, the rate of warming in Tmin is greater than that of Tmax. Trends computed since 1970 show an amplified warming rate compared to trends computed from 1918, and the rate of warming is comparable between Tmin and Tmax. This is especially true in the southern deserts, where warming trends during spring (March?CMay) are exceptionally large. While observations show coherent statewide positive trends in Tmin, trends in Tmax vary on finer spatial and temporal scales. Accompanying the observed statewide warming from 1970 to 2006, regional cooling trends in Tmax are observed during winter and summer. These signatures of regional temperature change suggest that a collection of different forcing mechanisms or feedback processes must be present to produce these responses.