Evaluation of wave impact loads on caisson breakwaters based on joint probability of impact maxima and rise times

When waves break against seawalls, vertical breakwaters, piers or jetties, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer is always spectacular and perpetually unrepeatable but can also be very violent and affect the stability and the integrity of coastal structures. Over the last 15 years, increasing awareness of wave-impact induced structural failures of maritime structures has emphasised the need for a more complete approach to dynamic responses, including effects of impulsive loads. At the same time, movement of design standards toward probabilistic approaches requires new statistical tools able to account for uncertainties in the variability of wave loading processes. This paper presents a new approach to the definition of loads for use in performance design of vertical coastal structures subject to breaking wave impacts.     

波高与风速联合概率分布研究

基于copula函数论述了两变量的联合概率分布方法.此方法的主要优点是边缘分布可由不同的分布函数构成,变量间可具相关性.以粤东汕尾海域极值波高与相应风速为研究实例,经分析获得以下结果:(1)优选的极值波高和风速可分别由P-Ⅲ型和GEV 分布表示:(2)拟合优度检验指标表明二者的最优连接函数为Archimedean co...     

耿贝尔逻辑模型在极值风速和有效波高联合概率分布中的应用

首先介绍了耿贝尔逻辑模型，采用该模型对南海海域的涠州岛海洋站的风速和有效波高实测数据进行了分析，结果表明耿贝尔逻辑模型较好地描述了年极值风速和有效波高两随机变量的联合分布；采用得到的极值风浪联合概率分布推算了不同重现期的极值风速和波高，表明考虑风速和波高相关性对设计荷载的确定有显著影响。由于耿贝尔逻辑模型具有函数结构简单，参数估计方便，因此有望成为极值风速和波高联合分布的较理想概率模型。     

Sediment transport by sea ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas: Increasing importance due to changing ice conditions?

Sediment-laden sea ice is widespread over the shallow, wide Siberian Arctic shelves, with off-shelf export from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas contributing substantially to the Arctic Ocean's sediment budget. By contrast, the North American shelves, owing to their narrow width and greater water depths, have not been deemed as important for basin-wide sediment transport by sea ice. Observations over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves in 2001/02 revealed the widespread occurrence of sediment-laden ice over an area of more than 100,000 km² between 68 and 74°N and 155 and 170°W. Ice stratigraphic studies indicate that sediment inclusions were associated with entrainment of frazil ice into deformed, multiple layers of rafted nilas, indicative of a flaw-lead environment adjacent to the landfast ice of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. This is corroborated by buoy trajectories and satellite imagery indicating entrainment in a coastal polynya in the eastern Chukchi Sea in February of 2002 as well as formation of sediment-laden ice along the Beaufort Sea coast as far eastward as the Mackenzie shelf. Moored upward-looking sonar on the Mackenzie shelf provides further insight into the ice growth and deformation regime governing sediment entrainment. Analysis of Radarsat Synthetic Aperture (SAR) imagery in conjunction with bathymetric data help constrain the water depth of sediment resuspension and subsequent ice entrainment (>20 m for the Chukchi Sea). Sediment loads averaged at 128 t km^–2, with sediment occurring in layers of roughly 0.5 m thickness, mostly in the lower ice layers. The total amount of sediment transported by sea ice (mostly out of the narrow zone between the landfast ice edge and waters too deep for resuspension and entrainment) is at minimum 4×10⁶ t in the sampling area and is estimated at 5–8×10⁶ t over the entire Chukchi and Beaufort shelves in 2001/02, representing a significant term in the sediment budget of the western Arctic Ocean. Recent changes in the Chukchi and Beaufort Sea ice regimes (reduced summer minimum ice extent, ice thinning, reduction in multi-year ice extent, altered drift paths and mid-winter landfast ice break-out events) have likely resulted in an increase of sediment-laden ice in the area. Apart from contributing substantially to along- and across-shelf particulate flow, an increase in the amount of dirty ice significantly impacts (sub-)ice algal production and may enhance the dispersal of pollutants.     

Discrete elementmodeling of ice loads on ship hulls in broken ice fields

Ice loads on a ship hull affect the safety of the hull structure and the ship maneuvering performance in ice-covered regions. A discrete element method （DEM） is used to simulate the interaction between drifting ice floes and a moving ship. The pancake ice floes are modelled with three-dimensional （3-D） dilated disk elements considering the buoyancy, drag force and additional mass induced by the current. The ship hull is modelled with 3D disks with overlaps. Ice loads on the ship hull are determined through the contact detection between ice floe element and ship hull element and the contact force calculation. The influences of different ice conditions （current velocities and directions, ice thicknesses, concentrations and ice floe sizes） and ship speeds are also examined on the dynamic ice force. The simulated results are compared qualitatively well with the existing field data and other numerical results. This work can be helpful in the shil3 structure design and the navigation securitv in ice-covered fields.     

大连港集装箱码头后方堆场荷载统计分析和概率模型

为了解我国北方港口集装箱码头集装箱堆场荷载的情况,选择大连港集装箱码头进行集装箱荷载调查和统计分析。采用不平稳随机场模型,建立集装箱堆场的局部荷载模型和整体荷载模型,确定集装箱荷载的统计参数。研究表明:大连港集装箱码头50 a设计基准期的局部荷载最大值服从极值I型分布,平均值、标准差和变异系数分别为86 040.76 kg、24 199.05 kg和0.281 3;50 a设计基准期的整体荷载最大值也服从极值I型分布,平均值、标准差和变异系数分别为1 726.8 kg/m2、185.13 kg/m2和0.107 2。就重型集装箱而言,现行港口荷载规范规定的集装箱箱角荷载偏低,用于整体计算的荷载较高。     

波浪概率模型试验方法研究

目前常用的确定性模型试验不能满足海岸工程结构可靠度设计的要求。针对设计波高、周期、作用方向和水位四个水动力因素的不确定性,提出了波浪概率模型试验及其分析方法,供实验室物理和数学模型实验应用。     

辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计的海冰参数选取

海冰参数的合理取值是海洋工程海冰灾害风险评估的重要内容。利用1950—2018年的冰情等级(5个等级)数据,进行了1950—2018、1950—1990、1991—2018三种情景下的回归分析,确定了不同时期的冰情等级概率分布密度函数。利用鲅鱼圈雷达观测站2002—2017年的海冰现场实测资料,分别对鲅鱼圈附近海域一般冰厚、最大冰厚、最小冰厚进行概率分布拟合。基于上述概率分布结果,给出不同冰情等级的重现期,进而对海冰作业条件给出的设计参考值进行评价。结果表明:1990年以后2级、3级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变小,4级、5级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变大,规范给出重现期范围已不能代表辽东湾冬季海冰情况。本研究成果可为辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计提供重要数据支撑。     

On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.     

海洋立管综合环境条件设计标准研究

首先用有限单元法推导海洋输液立管在外界环境荷载条件下的侧向振动微分方程。对渤海某海区的15次风暴过程作了抽样分析，得到以波高为主时的波高、流速序列和以流速为主时的波高、流速序列，并对其进行了Weibull、Gumbel、Lognormal等适线分析，以确定各序列的最优分布形式及相应的特征值。用重点抽样法进行随机模拟得到联合概率为百年一遇的波高的流速。针对线海固定式平台铰接的海洋输液立管，以最大应力为控制条件确定其联合设计标准，并与其它方法作了比较，得到一些有益的结论。     

辽东湾JZ20—2海域海冰参数的概率分布

基于辽东湾JZ2 0 2海域 1996 2 0 0 0年 4个冬季的海冰定点观测资料和海冰数值模拟结果 ,对该海域的平整冰厚、冰速、冰向和压缩强度等海冰参数进行了概率分析 ,确定了各自的分布参数 ,并对冰速和冰向进行了联合概率分析。结果表明 :冰厚和冰速分别服从对数正态分布和瑞利分布 ,海冰压缩强度服从正态分布。计算结果可用于JZ2 0 2海域海洋结构可靠性设计和疲劳累积损伤分析的海冰参数 ,也可作为其邻近海域的参考资料     

基于大气海洋多变量与海冰时序特征的北极海冰范围预测研究

随着全球气候变暖加剧,北极地区的大气海洋环境剧烈变化,导致海冰变化更加不稳定,使得海冰预测的难度增大。本研究选择海表温度、2 m平均气温、二氧化碳浓度为大气海洋变量,海冰范围距平为时序特征参数,将上述参量作为北极海冰范围 （Sea Ice Extent,SIE） 的预测要素,建立了面向SIE的多变量长短期记忆 （Long Short Term Memory,LSTM） 神经网络模型,对比分析了2015－2021年不同时间序列预测模型的预测结果。结果显示：本研究所构建模型的RMSE、MAE、MAPE分别为0.353×106 km2、0.261×106 km2和3.191%。相比于其他预测模型,结合大气海洋变量和时序特征参数后的LSTM模型预测结果误差更小,拟合效果更好,可以消除夏季海冰剧烈变化对预测效果的影响,提高海冰范围的预测精度,对北极航道的通航安全保障工作具有重要的研究与应用价值。     

南海北部海面风速概率分布特征

利用南海北部的浮标、石油平台观测的海面风资料,分析了0~200 km范围内,不同离岸距离站点的风速的概率分布特征。观测结果指出,各站平均风速一般最大值出现在冬季,最小值出现在夏季,具有明显的季节变化特征,并且平均风速随着离岸距离的增大也逐渐增大。对于离岸距离较近的区域（100 km以内）,海面风基本符合双参数的Weibull分布,但对于100 km以外的海面风速概率分布与Weibull分布存在明显差异,随着离岸距离的增大,平均风速和风速标准偏差也相应增大。风速平均值与风速标准偏差的比值较小时,Weibull分布的偏斜度基本为正值,当比值较大时偏斜度转为负值。随着离岸距离的增大,出现与Weibull分布不一致的情况越来越多,且与对应的Weibull分布相比,其偏斜度越小,风速概率分布越不能用Weibull分布进行较好拟合。     

螺旋桨对海冰切削作用的DEM-FEM耦合分析

当船舶在冰区航行时,螺旋桨会与海冰相互碰撞并导致桨叶的变形和损坏,进而影响船舶的航行安全。为研究海冰与螺旋桨的相互作用过程,采用离散元(DEM)—有限元(FEM)耦合方法构建海冰—螺旋桨切削模型。海冰和螺旋桨模型分别采用具有黏结—破碎特性的球体离散单元和8节点六面体有限单元构造。基于该DEM-FEM耦合模型讨论了不同切削深度下,螺旋桨所承受冰载荷的特点和规律;最后,研究了螺旋桨切削海冰过程中进速系数、推力系数、扭矩系数之间的对应关系,并讨论了海冰—螺旋桨相互作用过程中冰压力、Mises应力和变形的分布特点。以上研究可为寒区船舶安全航行和螺旋桨设计提供有益的参考。     

海洋环境要素计算不确定性分析

海洋环境要素(如风、浪、流、周期等)极值参数的准确推算在海洋工程设计中具有重要意义。由于极值计算时存在的不确定性因素,导致不同模式、样本的组合会导致极值计算结果产生明显差异。使用南海长期波浪资料,对环境要素计算时存在的统计模型不确定性、取样不确定性和参数求解方法的不确定性等进行了系统的研究和比较,最终对极值理论总体不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,采用复合极值分布并扩大样本数量的方法,可有效减小极值预测的不确定性及海洋结构物设计阶段的风险。     

Sea ice evolution and internal wave generation due to a tidal jet in a frozen sea

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of tidal currents on sea ice in Spitsbergen fjords which may cause rapid decrease of the ice thickness due to erosion and melting of the ice. The effect was studied in-situ near the narrow channel connecting the Van Mijen Fjord and Lake Vallunden. The strong jet-like tidal currents in the strait driven by semidiurnal tide continue into the lake preventing ice freezing along a narrow strip during high tide and relatively warm weather. Understanding the formation of open water regions or regions with thin ice is important for the safe transportation on ice. We estimate conditions and representative time over which strong tidal current influences ice thickness along a narrow strip in solid ice. Changes of tidal phase and decrease in air temperature influence freezing of the strip in one-two days. While the tidal flow leaves the strait it overflows a shallow bar and generates internal lee waves propagating downslope and mixing the water. Tidal forcing of internal waves was measured using pressure gauges and by scanning of the ice surface during flood and ebb phases. Internal waves were measured using three types of CTD instruments and an ADCP current meter. The generation of wave packets occurs every tidal cycle when the current flows into the lake, but no generation occurs during the ebb phase of the tide because the currents over the bar slope are low. Parameters of internal waves are estimated. Model simulations confirm generation of internal wave train by the tidal current descending downslope.     

Nonlinear joint flexibility element for the modeling of jacket-type offshore platforms

A new nonlinear two-dimensional tubular joint element is developed in this study on the basis of flexibility equations and the interaction between the axial force and the in-plane bending moment in the joint. Empirical equations are used to define the joint yielding in the axial direction and the in-plane rotation. An elastic-perfectly plastic yield function is adopted to include the combined effects of axial loads and bending moments on the yielding of the joint. The element formulation is straightforward, and it can readily be implemented in nonlinear finite element programs. Verification studies are carried out for the element to prove its suitability for the modeling of tubular joints of offshore jacket structures. It is concluded that the nonlinear joint model that has been developed produces accurate results, verified against experimental data as well as against sophisticated multi-axial finite element joint models.     

渤海冰情与老虎滩水温的关系

本文对2000～2004年连续5年冬季老虎滩水温与渤海冰面积数据进行统计分析,得到渤海海冰面积与老虎滩水温的回归关系,对冬季海冰预报具有一定的参考意义。     

风浪波高和周期的联合概率密度分布

本文采用有代表性的44008美国国家浮标站2003年1～3月实测的海浪谱密度资料,选取三次大风过程进行风浪谱分析。通过对实测平均海浪谱与PM谱、JONSWAP谱及Torsethaugen谱的比较,得到PM谱拟和最好。然后用国际上最先进的随机波分析方法,根据协方差矩阵的循环嵌套技术,以实测平均谱与PM谱为靶谱,对随机波面进行模拟。得到由模拟波面统计的特征值及估计的谱与实测谱结果极为相近,谱峰及谱峰频率都基本一致。说明利用模拟波面研究海浪具有代表性,它可以反映实测海浪的特征。利用Longuet-Higgins(1983)模型计算波高-周期联合概率密度分布,得到变换高斯过程计算的波高、周期联合分布与实测情况基本相同,更好地描述了波高-周期联合概率密度分布。     

Hilbert变换在海浪波高与周期联合分布函数中的应用

Longuet-Higgins(1983)[1]导出了波高与周期的联合分布函数,此分布函数虽然与实际数据符合良好,但存在很大的缺陷,如:由此分布函数得出的波高分布为形式较为复杂的非Rayleigh分布,很难应用于工程计算中。孙孚(1988a)[2]应用射线理论导出了一种波高与周期联合分布,虽然弥补了Longuet-Higgins的一些缺陷,但推导过程过于复杂。本文在窄谱假定下通过应用Hilbert变换方法得出新的分布函数并与前两者比较,表明Hilbert变换的方法不但简便,而且完全克服Longuet-Higgins的不足,可以方便的应用于工程计算中。本文也为Hilbert变换的方法在工程中的应用提供了理论依据。