风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式

以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。     

Multivariate analysis for ordination and comparison of size of Artemia cysts

ThisresearchwasfundedbyNaturalScienceFoundationofFujianProvince.INTRODUCTloNBrineshrimpsaredistrbutedwidelyintheworld.Morethan35ohabitatshavebeenidenti-fiedsofar(VanhaeckeandSorgeloos,198O).Longadaptationtothenarrowbiotopscharacter-izedbyhighsalinityofsaltlakes,lagoonsandsaltfarms,thestrainhasdevelopedinherentcharac-terssuchascystsize,growthrateandtoleranttothehightemperature,etc.Thereforethecystbiometricshasoftenbeenusedinthespeciesidentification,asitisalsoeasyfordatagatheringwhencarr…     

The joint long-term distribution of design environmental factors for offshore structures Multivariate probabilities and simulating method

With the development of ocean engineering, it is one of the most important factors which determine the structural safety, cost and suitable forms of engineerings to select the ocean environmental design criteria. Owing to the complexity , variation and randomness of ocean environmental conditions, the commonly used methods for determining design criteria cannot consider the joint occurring probabilities of several environmental factors ,therefore, lead to overestimate design criteria of them and result in an unnecessary overspend invest in engineering. On the basis of the measured and hindcasting data and the multi-demension joint probability theory, this paper presented the study of the joint loads of wind , wave and current on the offshore structures and its responsible joint probability level with the application of random simulation techniques, and presented the joint design criteria of environmental loads for the realistic design of engineerings.     

Multivariate statistical analysis for characterization of sedimentary facies of Tarakan sub-basin,North Kalimantan

A study of sediment dynamics has been conducted on the Tarakan sub-basin, North Kalimantan, Indonesia using multivariate analysis. Multivariate statistical techniques can be used to determine sediment with similar characteristics and be a good proxy to recognize sedimentary facies and depositional environment. These methods have been applied to characterize the sedimentary facies at Tarakan sub-basin. A total of 23 samples were taken from several locations on the different depths of 56–2554?m that represent varieties of environment. The study is interpreted using compositional data analysis associated with a grain size trend analysis (GSTA), principal component analysis (PCA), and cluster analysis (CA). The GSTA value showed the dominance of poorly sorted silt indicating that the sediment is mostly deposited in low-energy depositional. The CA and the PCA determined three distinct sedimentary facies: shelf facies, upper bathyal facies, and lower bathyal facies. The facies were grouped as similar sediment and depositional environment. Sedimentological variables applied in the characterization were described to be an important tool for the interpretation of depositional environments – indirectly showing hydrodynamic energy.     

大型多元统计软件PRIMER的方法原理及其在底栖群落生态学中的应用

本文阐述大型多元统计分析软件 PRIMER的原理及其在底栖生态学中的应用。PRIMER是处理生态和环境多元数据的重要数值分析工具 ,本文从实用的角度对其中包括的技术方法和相应的子程序如 :等级聚类 (CLUSTER)、非度量多维标度 (MDS)、主分量分析 (PCA)、相似性分析检验(ANOSIM)、相似性百分比分析 (SIMPER)、生物 -环境连接的逐步分析和相关检验 (BIOENV/BVSTEP)等作了较为系统的介绍。     

纵横加筋圆锥壳振动特性多变量分析

为了全面掌握纵横加筋圆锥壳结构参数与其振动特性之间的关系,采用有限元软件ANSYS对纵横加筋圆锥壳进行参数化建模,并基于设计变量全组合数据,采用相关性分析、主效应分析和主成分分析方法,对纵横加筋圆锥壳结构参数与结构第一阶总体弯曲模态频率、激励力处的加速度响应总级以及结构质量之间的关系进行研究,得到了各结构参数与目标量之间关系的定量描述。为正确理解纵横加筋圆锥壳结构参数与振动特征量之间的关系提供了数据支撑,同时为此类结构的工程设计提供了参考依据。     

一种预测聚合物驱开发动态的模型

在分析聚合物驱与水驱驱替机理差异的基础上,对水驱预测的经验公式进行改进,建立了适用于聚合物驱的预测模型。预测模型可考虑聚合物溶液黏度、注入PV数及最大残余阻力系数等参数对聚合物驱效果的影响。预测模型预测大庆喇南和喇北东块的聚合物驱含水率曲线与实际含水动态吻合,预测提高采收率误差小于8%,结果可靠。预测模型所需参数简单、计算简便,可用于聚合物驱动态预测、效果评价及潜力分析。     

A New Model for Ice Forces on A Conical Structure

The ice force is an important factor to be taken into account for offshore structures in cold regions, and the calculation method of the ice force is meaningful for the offshore structure design. The cone is now used as an optimal ice-resistant structure because it can cause bending failure of the ice sheet. The interaction between an ice sheet and a conical structure is studied in this paper and Croasdale‘s model is modified based on field observations. The newly built model separates the ice sheet into the emersed part and the floating part, and the equilibrium analyses are canied out respectively. The bending moment distribution of the ice sheet is analyzed for the determination of the position of bending failure, which serves as a supplementary restraint. The analytic solution of the ice foree on a conical structure is obtained it is verified with the experimental data of previous researches.     

A multi-distribution approach to POT methods for determining extreme wave heights

Determination of extreme wave heights using a Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach is revisited. Firstly, the GPD-Poisson model is recalled. A double threshold is presented and justified, with objective tools for determining the high threshold. This model is then extended to other statistical distributions, namely the Weibull and Gamma distributions. Objective criteria (BIC and AIC) based upon likelihood are used to select the best-fitting distribution. This method is tested on two locations: the historical IAHR Haltenbanken dataset and a location at the entry of the Strait of Gibraltar. Finally, sensitivity analyses are carried out with respect to the high threshold and to the duration of the dataset to estimate the robustness of the approach presented.     

A New Model for Velocity Profiles in Estuarine Waters

Water motion in estuarine waters is the result of the action of various dynamic factors. Firstly, based on the hydro-dynamic characteristics in estuarine waters, neglecting the nonlinear effects of various flow hydrodynamic factors, the logarithm velocity profile of tidal current and the cubic velocity profile of Hansen and Rattray (1965) made for linear superposition at a sense of first order, a new model for velocity profile in estuarine waters is established. Then, by introducing the least square method combination of enumeration, the velocity profile data of wind-driven current measured in the laboratory and that observed at the North and the South Branches of the Yangtze Estuary are verified and compared with other formulas, all with satisfactory results. The results show that the new model not only considers the influences of various dynamic factors, such as tide, wind force, run-off and density pressure with high accuracy, but also provides reasonable boundary conditions on the bottom for hydrodynamics numerical simulation in estuarine waters. Thereby, the accuracy and credibility of numerical computation and prediction of water flow are improved. The research is theoretically important for the estuarine hydrodynamics.     

设计波高推算的一种新模型

考虑台风影响海域的设计波高,结合复合极值理论和最大熵原则,构造了1种新型的具有4个待定参量和1个台风频次参量的poisson-最大熵分布函数模型,并推导出求解参数的方程组,参数的数值解可通过年极值实测数据的期望、方差、偏度和峰度得到.以黄海某观测站26 a极值波高的实测数据为例计算了新模型中4个待定参量和多年一遇设计波高,并与传统常用计算方法得到的结果进行比较.比较表明,新模型相比传统方法具有一定的优势.     

The Effects of Industrial Pollution on the Development and Succession of Marine Fouling Communities II. Multivariate Analysis of Succession

Abstract. The successional stages of fouling communities from 3 sites located along a pollution gradient within Port Kembla Harbour (Australia) were compared quantitatively with those from Wollongong Harbour, a relatively unpolluted area located close by.
A multivariate classification of the data showed that the development of fouling communities in Port Kembla Harbour was very different from that in Wollongong Harbour, involving different types of species. In addition, the classification identified a secondary pattern in the data which showed that the species composition of the Port Kembla Harbour communities changed with time, independently of any seasonal effects.
A principal coordinate analysis of the data was able to further expand on these findings. It demonstrated that the succession of fouling communities in Port Kembla Harbour involved a process whereby one group of species (ascidians) was gradually replaced through time by a second group of different species (bivalves). In contrast, the communities in Wollongong Harbour were dominated by inhibitory interactions. The succession in this area mainly involved species (particularly bryozoans) which colonised during the initial stages of development and remained in the communities as they continued to develop.
Changes in the succession of fouling communities from Port Kembla Harbour were thought to be due to the loss of pollution sensitive species, such as bryozoans, from the environment. This was not attributed to the acute, toxic effects of the pollutants, but rather to more subtle and indirect effects.     

A new method for determining threshold in using PGCEVD to calculate return values of typhoon wave height

In using the PGCEVD (Poisson-Gumbel Compound Extreme Value Distribution) model to calculate return values of typhoon wave height, the quantitative selection of the threshold has blocked its application. By analyzing the principle of the threshold selection of PGCEVD model and in combination of the change point statistical methods, this paper proposes a new method for quantitative calculation of the threshold in PGCEVD model. Eleven samples from five engineering points in several coastal waters of Guangdong and Hainan, China, are calculated and analyzed by using PGCEVD model and the traditional Pearson type III distribution (P-Ⅲ) model, respectively. By comparing the results of the two models, it is shown that the new method of selecting the optimal threshold is feasible. PGCEVD model has more stable results than that of P-Ⅲ model and can be used for the return wave height in every direction.     

大连地区一次极端天气的数值研究

利用常规资料、自动站资料以及中尺度数值模式(MM5V3.7),对2007年3月3日~5日大连地区出现的暴雨、雨凇、雪、大风、寒潮等多种灾害性极端天气进行了分析。结果表明:这次极端天气是由北上江淮气旋与北方冷空气共同作用造成的。利用MM5模式对造成这次极端天气的天气系统的发展和演变进行了诊断,表明:高、低空急流及其相应的次级环流在这次强天气过程中起了重要作用,低空急流的次级环流的上升支和高空急流入口区右侧的强辐散相重合,形成高空强负涡度、强辐散,低空强正涡度、强辐合和上升运动。与高空偏西急流相配合的强冷空气与低空东南急流引导的海上暖湿空气在辽东半岛交汇,激发不稳定能量的释放,从而进一步加强了上升运动。这种深厚的强上升气流是这次强天气发生的重要原因。     

Determination of the Angle of Shearing Resistance of Soils Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline

This article adopts Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) for prediction of Angle of Shearing Resistance(?) of soil. MARS is an adaptive, non-parametric regression approach. Percentages of fine-grained (FG), coarse-grained (CG), liquid limit (LL), and bulk density (BD) have been used as input variables of MARS. The developed MARS gives an equation for prediction of ? of soil. The results of MARS have been compared with Genetic Expression Programming (GEP), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models. These results demonstrate that the developed MARS can be used as a robust model for determination of ? of soil.     

A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…     

一种基于小波阈值的SAR图像降噪方法

由于SAR特殊的相干成像机理导致图像有斑点噪声,使得目标识别和特征提取造成困难。在小波变换阈值降噪法的基础上,提出一种改进的SAR图像降噪方法。先用新的阈值公式对图像进行小波分解,再对小波系数进行更为细致的处理,最后通过逆变换实现图像去噪和重建。实验结果表明,与传统方法相比,本方法更为有效地去除了SAR图像的噪声,并能保持图像的细节特征,有着良好的图像视觉解译效果。     

Distribution of Biological Activity in the Lower St Lawrence Estuary as Determined by Multivariate Analysis

Three stations located in the Laurentian Trough were investigated three times during the summer production maximum (in June-July 1990; COUPPB90-1 cruise). A range of multivariate analyses was carried out to extract major physical-biological features in a large data set covering the whole cruise. This study presents the advantages of combining conventional principal component analysis (PCA) with a three-way data analysis. PCA provides the centre of gravity of the different locations for each variable and each sample during the cruise without temporal information. Three-way data analysis produces the trajectory of the different site/time locations for each variable and each sample, and clarifies spatial and temporal relationships between variables. The results reproduce the main patterns of the lower St Lawrence Estuary during the summer plankton bloom and indicate an upstream movement of warm and less saline waters associated with surface production. Apparently these large changes at the surface are not reflected in the deeper layers. Cluster analysis suggests that autotrophic and heterotrophic activities are decoupled when production is low and are correlated only when production increases.     

A New Climate Response Model for the Orbital Tuning of Pleistocene Climate Reconstructions

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - This paper describes a new approach to orbital tuning for the adjustment of proxy-based paleoclimate chronologies; the approach involves the...