Characterization of volcanic thermal anomalies by means of sub-pixel temperature distribution analysis

The simultaneous solution of the Planck equation (involving the widely used “dual-band” technique) using two shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands allows for an estimate of the fractional area of the hottest part of an active lava flow (f _h) and the background temperature of the cooler crust (T _c). The use of a high spectral and spatial resolution imaging spectrometer with a wide dynamic range of 15 bits (DAIS 7915) in the wavelength range from 0.501 to 12.67 μm resulted in the identification of crustal temperature and fractional areas for an intra-crater hot spot at Mount Etna, Italy. This study indicates the existence of a relationship between these T _c and f _h extracted from DAIS and Landsat TM data. When the dual band equation system is performed on a lava flow, a logarithmic distribution is obtained from a plot of the fractional area of the hottest temperature vs. the temperature of the cooler crust. An entirely different distribution is obtained over active degassing vents, where increases in T _c occur without any increase in f _h. This result indicates that we can use scatter plots of T _c vs. fh to discriminate between different types of volcanic activity, in this case between degassing vents and lava flows, using satellite thermal data.     

Prophet时序预测模型在电离层TEC异常探测中的应用

提出一种基于Facebook 开源的Prophet预测模型进行电离层TEC异常识别的新方法。 首先, 对比分析了该方法与传统时间序列预测方法(ARIMA模型等)预测电离层TEC建模背景值的精度, 以及与经典电离层TEC异常识别方法(滑动四分位法)提取前面对应一致的电离层TEC背景值的精度。 结果表明, Prophet预测模型预测建模背景值的精度要明显优于其他方法, 且预测的建模精度比ARIMA模型等方法高2.55倍左右, 比滑动四分位法高10.74倍左右。 同时, 在最佳预测建模区间时, 其精度值大小比较依次为RMSE_IQR=10.5841>RMSE_ARIMA=3.2780>RMSE_Prophet=0.8469, 说明传统探测法预测建模背景值时具有较大的不足。 随后, 以2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震为例, 利用该方法分析了电离层TEC异常扰动情况, 并对比验证了该方法的有效性和准确性。 实验结果表明: 在震前第10 d和第2 d电离层TEC发生较为明显的负异常, 第7 d电离层TEC发生较为明显的正异常。 对比实验表明, Prophet预测模型的有效性和准确性明显优于滑动四分位法。     

Lightning activity and precipitation structure of hailstorms

By using the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning location data from the lightning detection network of He- nan Province, surface Doppler radar data and standard orbit data of PR, TMI and LIS on TRMM satellite, the spatial and temporal characteristics of CG lightning flashes in 10 severe hailstorms are analyzed. The results show that the percentage of CG lightning in these hailstorms is high with an average value of 45.5%. There is a distinct increase in CG flash rate during the rapid development stage of hailstorms. The hailstone falling corresponds to an active positive flash period, and the increase of CG flash rate is generally accompanied with a decrease of –CG flash rate. The flash rate declines rapidly during the dissipating stage of hailstorms. The precipitation structure and lightning activity in two typical hail- storms are studied in detail. It is found that strong convective cells with reflectivity greater than 30dBZ mainly are situated in the front region of hailstorms, whereas the trailing stratiform region is in the rear part of the hailstorms. The maximum heights of echo top are higher than 14 km. Convective rain con- tributes much more rainfall to the total than stratiform rain, and the convective rain takes about 85% and 97% of the total in the two cases, respectively. Total lightning in the hailstorms is very active with the flash rate up to 183 fl/min and 55 fl/min, respectively. The results also indicate that most lightning flashes occurred in the echo region greater than 30 dBZ and its immediate periphery. The probability of lightning occurrence is 20 times higher in the convective region than in the stratiform region. The result suggests that the lightning information is helpful to the identification of convective rain region. The linear relationship between flash rate and ice water content is disclosed primarily.     

Generation of electrostatic emissions by lightning-induced whistler-mode radiation above thunderstorms

Data from two separate thunderstorm sounding rocket experiments – Thunderstorm-II (T-II), which involved two rockets, and Thunderstorm-III (T-III) – are compared. In both cases, the sounding rockets over-flew active storm cells, but the bottomside of the ionosphere had a lower density and was much more structured for the first experiment than for the second. Electric field measurements on the flight through a structured ionosphere (T-II) show a triggered emission that has a height variation with altitude that seems to track the lower hybrid resonance frequency (LHR). Theories and other experimental data are presented supporting the concept that LH waves can be stimulated by intense whistlers when density gradients are present, and we interpret these T-II data in just such a context. We believe these emissions may be responsible for the irregularities causing the remote-sensing phenomenon called explosive spread F. The T-III flight had no such height-dependent emissions, which we attribute to the smoothness of the medium during that flight. Curiously, long-lasting emissions also occurred during T-III, but at frequencies that were constants with height and harmonics of the cut-off frequency for the earth-ionosphere wave guide. To our knowledge, there is no existing theory against which to test the T-III emissions.     

On the interpretation of near-bottom water temperature anomalies

A positive water temperature anomaly of 0.11°C and an inverse gradient of potential temperature of 1.5 × 10^?2°C/m has been measured at the TAG hydrothermal field in the rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at latitude 26°N by means of a thermistor array towed between 2 and 20 m above the seafloor. This anomaly appears to be associated with hydrothermal discharge from the oceanic crust. The temperature data are interpreted in terms of (1) a steady, turbulent thermal plume rising in a homogeneous, neutrally buoyant medium, and (2) turbulent diffusion in the ocean-bottom boundary layer. The calculations indicate that the thermal output of the TAG anomaly area is of the order of several megawatts, which is of the same order of magnitude as some continental geothermal systems. The thermal output from the TAG anomaly area represents a significant fraction of the total heat loss resulting from the generation of new lithosphere at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 26°N.     

Sea surface temperature anomalies driven by oceanic local forcing in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly events in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) were investigated through wavelet analysis and numerical modeling. Wavelet analysis was applied to recognize the main spectral signals of SST anomaly events in the BMC and in the Drake Passage as a first attempt to link middle and high latitudes. The numerical modeling approach was used to clarify the local oceanic dynamics that drive these anomalies. Wavelet analysis pointed to the 8–12-year band as the most energetic band representing remote forcing between high to middle latitudes. Other frequencies observed in the BMC wavelet analysis indicate that part of its variability could also be forced by low-latitude events, such as El Niño. Numerical experiments carried out for the years of 1964 and 1992 (cold and warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases) revealed two distinct behaviors that produced negative and positive sea surface temperature anomalies on the BMC region. The first behavior is caused by northward cold flow, Río de la Plata runoff, and upwelling processes. The second behavior is driven by a southward excursion of the Brazil Current (BC) front, alterations in Río de la Plata discharge rates, and most likely by air-sea interactions. Both episodes are characterized by uncoupled behavior between the surface and deeper layers.     

Forecasting the energy produced by a windmill on a yearly basis

The objective of this article is to study as extensively as possible the uncertainties affecting the annual energy produced by a windmill. In the literature, the general approach is to estimate the mean annual energy from a transformation of a Weibull distribution law. Then the issue is reduced to estimating the coefficients of this distribution. This is obtained by classical statistical methods. Therefore, the uncertainties are mostly limited to those resulting from the statistical procedures. But in fact, the real uncertainty of the random variable which represents the annual energy cannot been reduced to the uncertainty on its mean and to the uncertainties induced from the estimation procedure. We propose here a model, which takes advantage of the fact that the annual energy production is the sum of many random variables representing the 10?min energy production during the year. Under some assumptions, we make use of the central limit theorem and show that an intrinsic uncertainties of wind power, usually not considered, carries an important risk. We also explain an observation coming from practice that the forecasted annual production is always overestimated, which creates a risk of reducing the profitability of the operation.     

盘锦高七井水温前兆异常特征分析

介绍了盘锦高七井水温测点的基本情况,对高七井水温自1997年1月1日至2008年12月31日的观测资料进行了研究,总结分析了该测点记录到的一些地震前后的水温异常变化特征.研究结果表明,高七井水温前兆异常变化,既有趋势性的,也有短临异常.     

South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and air-sea interactions: stochastic models

Data on the South Atlantic monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are analysed using the maximum-entropy method. It is shown that the Markov first-order process can describe, to a first approximation, SSTA series. The region of maximum SSTA values coincides with the zone of maximum residual white noise values (sub-Antarctic hydrological front). The theory of dynamic-stochastic climate models is applied to estimate the variability of South Atlantic SSTA and air-sea interactions. The Adem model is used as a deterministic block of the dynamic-stochastic model. Experiments show satisfactorily the SSTA intensification in the sub-Antarctic front zone, with appropriate standard deviations, and demonstrate the leading role of the abnormal drift currents in these processes.     

清真寺浅井水温异常与龙门山断裂带中段地震活动

对四川省北川县清真寺内水井水温( 地热) 连续观测所反映的地震活动信息作了讨论。该井水温受气象因素影响不大, 水温测值稳定, 出现突升突降与附近 M≥4 级地震活动有较好的对应。     

Direct interpretation of self-potential anomalies produced by a vertical dipole

In the present paper a new method is proposed for the quantitative interpretation of self-potential anomalies which are produced by a vertical dipole. First the mathematical expression of the wavenumber spectrum of the self-potential anomaly is deduced. It is pointed out that at relatively high wavenumbers the behavior of the amplitude spectrum is controlled by the closer to the surface pole at depth h. On the other hand, the “width” of the amplitude spectrum depends on the depth h and the dipole length L.Making a proper mathematical transformation of the amplitude spectrum, and applying the least squares method, it is possible to calculate the depth to the upper pole. The dipole length may then be calculated, by solving numerically a characteristic algebraic equation, as long as the “width” of the amplitude spectrum has been previously defined.The proposed method is applied on a well known self-potential profile from Greece. The calculated parameters of the polarized body are in good agreement with real data. Experimentation with synthetic models in which random noise was introduced, showed that this method gives reliable results if the noise amplitude is not more than 20% of the signal amplitude. It is clearly more efficient than the methods which are based on the model of the point pole or the dipole with a small length. It can also give good results if the horizontal extensions of the polarized body are not more than a few tenths of the depth of the upper pole. If the polarized body is tilted, the depth of the upper pole can be calculated with satisfactory accuracy.The direct interpretation method which is proposed in the present paper, may be useful in mineral exploration, and particularly if the target of interest is the detection of massive sulfide mineralization.     

Seasonality and anomalies of sea surface temperature off the coast of Nayarit, Mexico

Sea surface temperature (SST) harmonic and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses covering 18 years were performed for the area located from 114° to 105° W and from 18° to 25° N. The results indicate that the influence of the annual signal predominates over the semi-annual signal, and the closer to the coast, the stronger the annual harmonic. Several interannual anomalies arose that are connected with the main global indexes, especially the Oceanic Niño Index. Pearson correlations between the first temporal mode of the SST and regional rainfalls in Nayarit indicate that maximum correlations (r?>?0.7) are observed when there is a +1-month lag between the series. However, this result indicates that SST is delayed with 1 month after rainfall occurrence, which shows that the dominant influence in this relationship is not the SST forcing.     

The impact of remote temperature anomalies on the strength and position of the Gulf Stream and on coastal sea level variability: a model sensitivity study

Ocean Dynamics - A regional numerical ocean model of the Gulf Stream (GS) and the US East Coast was used to conduct sensitivity experiments of the dynamic response to temperature anomalies...     

Absolute measurement ofD by means of a proton magnetometer

In a large coil with vertical axis the current is adjusted so thatZ=0. A smaller coil of a new type with four sets of cylindrical turns is placed with its axis horizontal. ThisD-coil is provided with a telescope pointing at a mark nearly in the magnetic meridian. A proton magnetometer sensor is placed in the common centre of the coils. Two series of readings are taken with theD-coil in the erect and inverted position respectively. Variations ofD, H, F, andD-coil current are recorded. A simple formula gives the mean value ofD.     

东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系

利用1951～2000年中国东北地区23个台站资料，对东北夏季气温的时空分布进行了研究，发现其变化除具有整体的一致性外，东北南部和北部的夏季气温在年际和年代际时间尺度都表现出很大不同，其中北部区域的夏季气温在1987～1988年间发生了一次显著的气候突变. 另外，剔除夏季气温全区一致变化的年份后，南北两区夏季气温与大气环流和海表温度的关系表明：突变前，影响北部和南部冷/热夏季的大气环流形势存在显著的不同，关键海域亦有很大差异：影响南部的为中纬度西太平洋和印度洋部分海域，影响北部的主要为ENSO事件；突变后，两区的夏季气温及相应大气环流和关键海区都趋于一致. 在整个分析时段内，北部夏季气温与东亚夏季风存在显著负相关，而南部的关系则不明显.     

气溶胶对雷暴云电过程影响的数值模拟研究

本文在已有的三维雷暴云起、放电模式中加入了一种经典的气溶胶活化参数化方案,结合一次长春雷暴个例,进行了雷暴云起放电数值模拟试验.研究显示气溶胶浓度改变对雷暴云微物理、起电及放电过程都有重要影响.结果表明：（1）污染型雷暴云中气溶胶浓度增加时,云滴数目增多,上升风速加强;云中冰晶与霰粒子数浓度增加但尺度减小;（2）相对于清洁型雷暴云,污染型雷暴云非感应起电过程弱,感应起电过程强,起电持续时间长;（3）污染型雷暴云中首次放电时间延迟,闪电持续发生的时间长,总闪电频次增加,正地闪频次增加明显.

     

Recent observations and research progresses of terrestrial gamma-ray flashes during thunderstorms

Terrestrial gamma-ray flashes(TGFs) are high-energy emissions in thunderstorms that were discovered first by satellite-based and then by ground-based gamma-ray detectors with photon energy up to tens of Me V. TGFs are a natural highenergy phenomenon associated with lightning discharges that frequently occur during thunderstorms. However, their production mechanisms and associated processes are still unclear. TGF studies have already been a research spotlight in the atmospheric electricity and hi...     

Parametric sensitivity analysis of precipitation and temperature based on multi-uncertainty quantification methods in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Sensitivity analysis(SA) has been widely used to screen out a small number of sensitive parameters for model outputs from all adjustable parameters in weather and climate models, helping to improve model predictions by tuning the parameters. However, most parametric SA studies have focused on a single SA method and a single model output evaluation function, which makes the screened sensitive parameters less comprehensive. In addition, qualitative SA methods are often used because simulations using complex weather and climate models are time-consuming. Unlike previous SA studies, this research has systematically evaluated the sensitivity of parameters that affect precipitation and temperature simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model using both qualitative and quantitative global SA methods. In the SA studies, multiple model output evaluation functions were used to conduct various SA experiments for precipitation and temperature. The results showed that five parameters(P3, P5, P7, P10, and P16) had the greatest effect on precipitation simulation results and that two parameters(P7 and P10) had the greatest effect for temperature. Using quantitative SA, the two-way interactive effect between P7 and P10 was also found to be important, especially for precipitation. The microphysics scheme had more sensitive parameters for precipitation, and P10(the multiplier for saturated soil water content) was the most sensitive parameter for both precipitation and temperature. From the ensemble simulations, preliminary results indicated that the precipitation and temperature simulation accuracies could be improved by tuning the respective sensitive parameter values, especially for simulations of moderate and heavy rain.