Northridge, California, earthquake of 1994: density of red-tagged buildings versus peak horizontal velocity and intensity of shaking

The 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred underneath a densely populated metropolitan area, and was recorded by over 200 strong motion stations in the metropolitan area and vicinity. This rare coincidence made it an ideal case to study, in statistical sense, the correlation of damage to structures with the level of strong shaking, in particular with respect to (1) instrumental characteristics of shaking and (2) the reported site intensity scale. In this paper, statistics for the incidence of red-tagged building in 1 × 1 km² blocks in San Fernando Valley and Los Angeles is presented and analyzed, as function of the observed peak ground velocity or the local intensity of shaking. The ‘observed’ peak velocity is estimated from contour maps based on the recorded strong motion. The intensity of shaking is estimated from the published intensity map and from our modification of this map to make it more consistent with observed high damage to buildings in some localized areas. Finally, empirical scaling equations are derived which predict the average density of red-tagged buildings (per km²) as a function of peak ground velocity or site intensity of shaking. These scaling equations are specific to the region studied, and apply to Wooden Frame Construction, typical of post World War II period, which is the prevailing building type in the sample studied. These can be used to predict the density of red-tagged buildings per km² in San Fernando Valley and in Los Angeles for a scenario earthquake or for an ensemble of earthquakes during specified exposure, within the framework of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Such predictions will be useful to government officials for emergency planning, to the insurance industry for realistic assessment of insured losses, and to structural engineers for assessment of the overall performance of this type of buildings.     

1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge, California, earthquakes: did the zones with severely damaged buildings reoccur?

This paper compares the distribution of damage from the San Fernando, 1971, and Northridge, 1994, earthquakes. Both events had similar size, occurred on blind thrust faults beneath the densely populated San Fernando Valley of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, and hence offer a rare opportunity to compare the effects of the two earthquakes. In a previous study of the distribution of red-tagged (‘unsafe’) buildings and of breaks in the water distribution system caused by the Northridge earthquake, the authors discovered that buildings were damaged less where the soil response was not linear (as indicated by the breaks in the water pipes), except in localized areas of very severe shaking (peak ground velocity exceeding 150 cm/s). The study in this paper shows that the same applies to the damage caused by the San Fernando earthquake, and that the areas with severely damaged buildings (so called ‘gray zones’) for both earthquakes overlapped. This reoccurrence of damage within the same area is interpreted to result from some specific properties of local soil and geology. These properties are not fully understood at present, but should be explored to provide a basis for a new tool for forecasting microzonation maps, and reducing future seismic hazard.     

Nonlinear soil response as a natural passive isolation mechanism-the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

The spatial relationship between areas with severely damaged (red-tagged) buildings and areas with large strains in the soil (indicated by reported breaks in the water distribution system), observed during the 1994 Northridge earthquake, is analysed. It is shown that these areas can be separated almost everywhere. Minimal overlapping is observed only in the regions with very large amplitudes of shaking (peak ground velocity exceeding about 150 cm s⁻¹). One explanation for this remarkable separation is that the buildings on ‘soft’ soils, which experienced nonlinear strain levels, were damaged to a lesser degree, possibly because the soil absorbed a significant portion of the incident seismic wave energy. As a result, the total number of severely damaged (red-tagged) buildings in San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles and Santa Monica may have been reduced by a factor of two or more. This interpretation is consistent with the recorded peak accelerations of strong motion in the same area. It is concluded that significant reduction in the potential damage to wood frame single family dwellings may be expected in areas where the soil experiences ‘large’ strains (beyond the linear range) during strong earthquake shaking, but not significant differential motions, settlement or lateral spreading, near the surface.     

Peak velocities and peak surface strains during Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994

We present contours of the largest horizontal and vertical recorded peak velocities of strong ground motion during the Northridge, California, earthquake. Above the fault, the horizontal peak velocities exceeded 100 cm/s. The vertical velocities were larger than 20 cm/s. We also present contours of peak horizontal and vertical strain factors. Through most of the San Fernando Valley and the Santa Susana Mountains, the horizontal surface strain factor was larger than 10⁻³. The largest horizontal strain factor computed was for the Rinaldi Receiving Station ∼10^−2·2. The corresponding vertical strains were >10^−3·25 and 10⁻¹³, respectively. Through most of the Los Angeles Basin the horizontal peak surface strain factors were between 10^−3·75 and 10⁻³.     

On the reoccurrence of site specific response

The period and amplitude variations of local peaks in the Fourier amplitude spectra of free-field strong ground motion recorded at five stations in San Fernando Valley of metropolitan Los Angeles, California, are described, searching for peaks that reoccur during different earthquakes. The data suggest that some local peaks reoccur (about 50% of the time), during shaking by small local earthquakes (peak ground velocities, v_max<10–20 cm/s). During large strong motion amplitudes (v_max>20 cm/s), these peaks are shifted towards longer periods (by nonlinear response of soils) or disappear. The data also suggest that densification and settlement of soil, minutes and hours following the strong shaking may contribute towards fluctuations in the effective stiffness of the shallow surface layers.     

Damage distribution during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake relative to generalized categories of surficial geology

The spatial distributions of severely damaged buildings (red-tagged) and of breaks in the water distribution system following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (M_L = 6·4) are investigated relative to the local characteristics of surficial geology. The pipe breaks are used as an indicator of nonlinear soil response, and the red-tagged buildings as indicator of severe shaking. The surficial geology is described by several generalized categories based on age, textural character and thickness of the near surface layer. Two regions are studied: the San Fernando Valley and Los Angeles-Santa Monica. The analysis shows that there is no simple correlation between damage patterns and surficial geology. Single family wood-frame buildings were damaged less when built on fine silt and clay (0–3 m thick) from the late Holocene.     

Observations and estimation of long-period strong ground motion in the los angeles basin

While the accurate estimation of ground-motion amplitudes across the entire frequency band of engineering interest is not possible at the present time, the excitation and propagation of long-period strong-ground motion can be understood with existing seismological methodology. In the Los Angeles Basin, the long-period strong ground motion excited by the San Fernando earthquake is dominated by the presence of surface waves, whose gross amplitude and frequency content are easily attributable to physical properties of the earthquake source and source-station propagation paths. Observed measures of the long-period strong ground motion of the Kern County earthquake relative to the San Fernando earthquake at two sites in the Los Angeles Basin which recorded both shocks can be predicted with considerable accuracy by a simple earthquake source model. This source model is extrapolated to represent the maximum credible earthquake likely to affect the Los Angeles area, taken to be a repeat of the Fort Tejon (1857) earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The measures of long-period strong ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin estimated for it agree well with the comparable measures of Earthquake A-2, intended to represent the same situation. For the purpose of aseismic design of long-period structures, Earthquake A-2 is a reasonable, if not all inclusive, estimate of the long-period strong ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin generated by a magnitude 8+ earthquake along the San Andreas fault north and east of Los Angeles.     

Faulting, shallow seismicity and seismic hazard analysis for the Costa Rican Central Valley

Faulting, shallow seismicity (0–30 km), and seismic hazard of the Costa Rican Central Valley were analyzed. Faults in the study area are oriented northwest or northeast. There is an active fault system in the south flank of the Central Volcanic Ridge and another in the north flank of the Talamanca Ridge. Faults of these systems have generated 15 destructive earthquakes in the area during the last 228 years all of them shallow and their locations show one cluster near the Poas Volcano and another southward the Central Valley. These earthquakes have damaged cities of the Central Valley, two of them destroyed Cartago city and almost 1000 people were killed. Regarding recent seismicity, there are three main seismic sources at the Central Volcanic Ridge: Irazu, Bajo de la Hondura and Poas and other three in the Talamanca Ridge: Puriscal, Los Santos and Pejibaye.A seismic hazard map for the Metropolitan Area of San José has been elaborated, based on local tectonic and seismic information. The area for the hazard computation covers an area of 20×15 km² and includes the zone where the most population and socioeconomic activities are concentrated. The computation analysis are based on areas zones and faults, each one characterized by recurrence parameters, geometry, minimum and maximum magnitude and source depth. A recent local spectral attenuation model, which includes relations for shallow crustal sources and subduction zone earthquakes, has been applied in this study. The seismic hazard results are presented in terms of contour plots of estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for bedrock conditions for return period of 50, 100 and 500 years. In the Central Park of San Jose City the following PGA values were found: 0.29g for 50 years, 0.36g for 100 years, and 0.53g for 500 years.     

Long period microtremors, microseisms and earthquake damage: Northridge, CA, earthquake of 17 January 1994

Three studies of site amplification factors, based on the recorded aftershocks, and one study based on strong motion data, are compared one with another and with the observed distribution of damage from the Northridge, CA, earthquake of 17 January 1994 (M_L=6.4). In the epicentral area, when the peak ground velocities are larger than v_m≈15 cm/s, nonlinear response of soil begins to distort the amplification factors determined from small amplitude (linear) wave motion. Moving into the area of near-field and strong ground motion (v_m>30 cm/s), the site response becomes progressively more affected by the nonlinear soil response. Based on the published results, it is concluded that site amplification factors determined from small amplitude waves (aftershocks, small earthquakes, coda waves) and their transfer-function representation may be useful for small and distant earthquake motions, where soils and structures respond to earthquake waves in a linear manner. However in San Fernando Valley, during the Northridge earthquake, the observed distribution of damage did not correlate with site amplification determined from spectra of recorded weak motions. Mapping geographical distribution of site amplification using other than very strong motion data, therefore appears to be of little use for seismic hazard analyses.     

A comparative study of bridge damage due to the Wenchuan, Northridge, Loma Prieta and San Fernando earthquakes

A comparative study of selected bridge damage due to the Wenchuan, Northridge, Loma Prieta and San Fernando earthquakes is described in this paper. Typical ground motion effects considered include large ground fault displacement, liquefaction, landslide, and strong ground shaking. Issues related to falling spans, inadequate detailing for structural ductility and complex bridge configurations are discussed within the context of the recent seismic design codes of China and the US. A significant lesson learned from the Great Wenchuan earthquake, far beyond the opportunities to improve the seismic design provisions for bridges, is articulated.     

A Full Waveform Test of the Southern California Velocity Model by the Reciprocity Method

— We apply the reciprocity method (Eisner and Clayton, 2001a) to compare the full waveform synthetic seismograms with a large number of observed seismograms. The reciprocity method used in the finite-difference modeling allows for the use of high quality data observed from the earthquakes distributed over the wide range of azimuths and depths. We have developed a methodology to facilitate the comparison between data and synthetics using a set of attributes to characterize the seismograms. These attributes are maximum amplitude, time delay and coda decay of the magnitude of the displacement vector. For the Southern California Velocity Model, Version 1 (Magistrale et al., 1996), we have found misfits between data and synthetics for paths traveling outside of the sedimentary basins and the western part of the Los Angeles and San Fernando basins.     

Two-dimensional earthquake vibrations in sedimentary basins – SH waves

In this paper, long- and short-period vibrations in sedimentary basins are studied. First, two-dimensional, long-period vibrations of deep semi-circular basins for excitation by earthquake faults, which can be inside or outside the basin, are analyzed. Second, recurring intermediate peak frequencies of Fourier-spectrum amplitudes of recorded accelerations along the east–west axis of the San Fernando Valley during the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake are reviewed. It is shown that these intermediate frequencies cannot be associated with vibrations of the entire San Fernando basin because the frequency range of typical strong-motion recordings (0.04 to 15.0 s) is too narrow to include the long-period vibration of the whole basin. These intermediate vibrations are consistent with Kanai׳s one-dimensional models consisting of parallel layers and excited by vertically incident shear waves.     

The Northridge, California, earthquake of 1994: fire ignition by strong shaking

The Northridge earthquake contributed unprecedented detail and quality of data on strong ground motion and on its effects on man-made structures. About 110 fires have been attributed directly to the effects of this earthquake. Two hypotheses for the principal causative agents leading to fire ignition were examined: differential motion and strains in the soil, and inertial forces. The fire-ignition frequency is described with respect to: (1) simple measures of strain in the soil (via density of water pipe breaks, n), (2) occurrence of severely damaged buildings (via density of red-tagged buildings, N), (3) site intensity of shaking, (I_MM), and (4) inertial forces (via peak horizontal ground velocity, v_m). It is shown that the rate of fires (per unit area) ignited by earthquake shaking can be predicted by several empirical equations of comparable accuracy and in terms of common scaling parameters of strong ground motion.     

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.     

Hazard mapping of normalized peak strain in soils during earthquakes: microzonation of a metropolitan area

Seismic hazard maps of the Los Angeles metropolitan area are illustrated for normalized peak strain and for 50 years of exposure. The strain estimates are based on scaling in terms of peak ground velocity. The proportionality factor is the phase velocity with which the wave energy is propagating. A simplified seismicity model is used in which all earthquakes occur on faults represented by buried lines and in one zone of diffused seismicity. Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed. The same model was used in the 1980's to illustrate a method for microzoning of the same area for response spectral amplitudes. Maps of logarithms of normalized peak strain, cε_max, are presented for probabilities of at least one exceedance p = 0·99, 0·9, 0·5, 0·1 and 0·01. These can be used to construct site specific probability distribution functions of the normalized peak strain, cε_max. Such maps are useful for design of new and for retrofit of existing structures, sensitive to strain and differential ground motions (bridges, tunnels, pipelines, etc.).     

Aseismic design implications of near-fault san fernando earthquake records

Near-fault records of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake contain severe, long duration acceleration pulses which result in unusually large ground velocity increments. A review of these records along with the results of available theoretical studies of near-fault ground motions indicates that such acceleration pulses may be characteristic of near-fault sites in general. The results of an analytical study of a building severely damaged during the San Fernando earthquake indicate that such severe, long duration acceleration pulses were the cause of the main features of the observed structural damage. The implications of such pulses on current aseismic design methods, particularly those used to establish design earthquakes, are examined for buildings located near potential earthquake faults. Analytical studies of the non-linear dynamic response of single and multiple degree-of-freedom systems to several near-fault records, as well as to a more standard accelerogram, indicate that at near-fault sites: (a) very large displacement ductilities may result for current levels of code design forces; (b) smoothed elastic design response spectra should reflect the larger ground velocities that may occur; and (c) peak inelastic response cannot reliably be inferred from elastic response predictions.     

Constraints from precariously balanced rocks on preferred rupture directions for large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault

We have compared near-fault ground motions from TeraShake simulations of M_w7.7 earthquake scenarios on the southern San Andreas Fault with precariously balanced rock locations. The TeraShake scenarios with different directions of rupture generate radically different ground motions to the northwest of the Los Angeles Basin, primarily because of directivity effects, and thus provide constraints on the ground motion and rupture direction for the latest (1690) large event on that section of the San Andreas Fault. Due to the large directional near-field ground motions predicted by the simulations, we expect the precariously balanced rocks to be located primarily in the backward rupture direction or near the epicenter. Preliminary results favor persistent nucleation at or slightly northwest of the San Gorgonia Pass fault zone for large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault.     

Possible strain events reflected in water levels in wells along San Jacinto fault zone,southern California

Water levels have been monitored in wells along the San Jacinto fault zone since 1977. The three largest earthquakes to occur within 30 km of the segment of the San Jacinto fault zone being monitored with continuous recorders showed magnitudesM of 4.5, 4.8, and 5.5. Two wells in Borrego Valley, 31 to 32 km southeast of theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980, showed anomalous spikes recording a probable strain event 88 hours before the earthquake. Two other wells 12 km northwest of the epicenter showed no water-level anomalies. No water-level anomalies preceded theM=4.8 earthquake near Anza on 15 June 1982. Anomalous water-level fluctuations occurred in a well near Ocotillo Wells, 13 km northeast of theM=4.5 earthquake on 22 March 1982, 19 to 23 days prior to the earthquake. Similar fluctuations in other wells have not been followed by sizable earthquakes. A simultaneous drop in water level occurred in four wells on 8 September 1982; this possible strain event was not associated with a sizable earthquake. The presumed strain events occur only in wells that show earth tides and may have been the result of creep on strands of the San Jacinto fault zone. Although water-level anomalies have occurred in only one or two wells prior to two out of three moderate (M=4.5–5.5) earthquakes, the simultaneous drop in water level on 8 September 1982 and the spikes in two wells before theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980 suggest that wells responsive to earth tides may detect strain events.     

地震烈度与地震动峰值的转换

本文以强震记录地面水平向平均峰值为基本数据,研究了在无条件、分别或同时考虑房屋层数和场地类别的前提下,地震烈度与地震动峰值的对应关系.并依据统计结果讨论了峰值均值随烈度的变化规律,给出了把烈度转换成地面峰速度、峰加速度或设计地震反应谱的建议方案.最后还讨论了把设计地震反应谱转换成地震烈度的方法,给出了建议的转换方案.      

Two-phase elasto-plastic seismic response of earth dams: applications

The model presented in the companion paper is validated in both the linear and nonlinear cases under steady-state single frequency harmonic and transient ground motions. The crest acceleration responses of the Santa Felicia earth dam subjected to the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and of the Long Valley earth dam subjected to the strongest of the 1980 Mammoth Lake earthquakes are computed and compared with the motions recorded at the site. Acceleration time histories for the solid and fluid phases in both horizontal and vertical directions, as well as stress-strain and pore water pressure-strain time histories for points along the height of the dam are presented. The ability of the model to simulate the occurrence of liquefaction in a dam is also demonstrated.