Quaternary intraplate deformation in the southeastern Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina

Neogene strain from the subducting Nazca plate is widely distributed in theAndean foreland as a result of flat-lying subduction beneath central westernArgentina (28^°–33^°S latitude). This fact is indicated byuplifted basement blocks bounded by reverse faults as far as 600 kms eastof the Chilean trench axis. Some deformation in the southern Sierras deCórdoba (southeastern Sierras Pampeanas) indicates significantdisplacements during Quaternary and even late Holocene time. Thisregion has low to moderate seismicity characterized by earthquakemagnitudes 6.7 with no associated noticeable surface ruptures.This paper presents information recently gathered on the most conspicuousregional structures of the area (El Molino, Sierra Chica and Las Lagunasfaults). The last movement along the El Molino fault thrust basement rocksover organic-rich (0.8–1.3 ka) sediment and fault relationships suggestprevious Quaternary displacements. Along the Sierra Chica fault,Precambrian basement has been thrust a minimum of 13.5 m overPleistocene conglomerates, and faulting also affects latePleistocene-Holocene fluvial sediments. The Las Lagunas fault has beenregarded as the source of the 1934 Ms 5.5 and 6.0 earthquakes, whichheavily damaged the nearby village of Sampacho. The faulted surface isburied under Holocene loess, but its trace is expressed as a 24-km-longrectilinear scarp, despite continuous modification due to land use.Although we lack detailed information on probable rupture lengths duringlarge Sierras Pampeanas thrust earthquakes, some preliminary considerationsare made for the regional seismic hazard of these structures. The geologicevidence described here identifies these faults as possible sources of strongearthquakes in the future.     

Electrical imaging of an alluvial aquifer at the Antinaco-Los Colorados tectonic valley in the Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina

The Antinaco-Los Colorados valley is a wide N–S tectonic depression, located between the Sa. de Velazco and the Sa. de Famatina, both ranges belonging to the Sierras Pampeanas thick-skinned deformation province in Argentina. From previously reported magnetotelluric (MT) data, it is known that the thickness of the sedimentary sequences may reach up to 8 km in the central zone of this basin. In particular, the Quaternary-to-recent alluvial filling contains an aquifer complex of great importance for this semiarid zone providing water for irrigation and also for human consumption. To obtain information about the electrical structure of the alluvial cover, 17 vertical electric soundings were carried out along an E–W traverse profile extending from one side of the valley to the other. A geoelectrical model is proposed taking into account complementary hydrogeological and geophysical information. In this model, the various layers which could contain fresh water are identified and the level of the water table inferred from the model is almost coincident with that observed from existing wells in the surveyed zone.     

Shear wave velocity modelling in crustal rock for seismic hazard analysis

P-wave velocity data along with the thickness of sedimentary and crystalline layers within bedrock were collected from all global regions and presented in the Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0, published in 2001. This well-organised database provides invaluable potential contributions towards future seismic hazard modelling, particularly for stable continental regions (SCRs), where there is a scarcity of representative strong motion records for conventional modelling purposes. The P-wave velocity information presented in CRUST2.0 has been converted herein to S-wave velocity information. The latter is especially important for purposes of seismic hazard modelling. The value of the CRUST2.0 model has therefore been greatly enhanced by the important findings presented and further developed in this paper. By making the best use of available information on crustal conditions, the amplification behaviour of seismic waves affecting a region, an area or a site for any given earthquake scenario may be predicted. The developed methodology, which is intended for worldwide applications, has been illustrated by case studies in which model S-wave velocity profiles were developed for different geological regions within North America. The model profiles were found to be in excellent agreement with field measurements reported for each respective region.     

地震前兆形变场研究

假设在均匀弹性介质半空间中，存在一单一力源F^→，通过求解弹性静力学方程，得到地球表面位移解3个分量（u、v、w)的解析表达式。讨论了理论垂直形变场的基本特征。力的大小是决定形变幅度的基本因素，力越大，形变幅度亦越大，反之，则越小。力源深度h越大，形变幅度越小，影响范围越大，反之，形变幅度大，影响范围小。力源倾角为正时（向下），形变中心区下降，倾角为负（向上）时，形变中心区隆起。力的方位角是决定形变场图像形态的重要因素。利用大同地区（1984－1987年）和张北地区（1984－1991年）水准测量资料反演这二个地区震前力学参数，结果表明，力源中心与实际震中位置相差小于40km，力的方位角近于水平，理论形变图与实测形变图基本相似。     

Patterns of significant seismic quiescence on the Mexican Pacific coast

Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, M_w = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, M_w = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, M_w = 8.0, and M_w = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, M_w = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.     

地震重点监视防御区县级行政单元地震危险性的差异统计及其分类管理的建议

本文利用GIS技术,将全国地震重点监视防御区(重防区)县级行政单元边界分别与中华人民共和国地震动峰值加速度图和中国及邻区地震区带和潜在震源区划分图叠加,对各县分别计算了如下4个地震危险性指标:(1)县境内最高地震动峰值加速度等级;(2)县境内面积比例最大的地震动峰值加速度等级;(3)县境内最高潜在震源区震级上限等级;(4)县境内面积比例最大的潜在震源区震级上限等级.通过分类统计全国重防区县级行政单元的地震危险性分布,得到的结论是:虽然同为重防区但各地的地震危险性相差巨大.据此,建议根据地震危险性的不同在重防区采取如下措施:第一,不论是何种类型的重防区,均应按中国地震动参数区划图对新建工程做抗震设防,对已有建筑做抗震加固;第二,位于高地震危险性的区域,特别是位于具7级以上潜在地震危险的重防区,要加强与防灾有关的应急准备、城市规划、地震监测预报、地震应急响应等专门措施.     

基于地震数据子集的波形反演思路、方法与应用

地震数据与地下介质物性参数之间的复杂关系,决定了地震全波形反演在理论方法上面临着强烈的非线性难题.地下不同物性参数的不同分量在地震数据上具有不同的表现,勘探的不同阶段对地下介质模型的精度也具有不同的要求,这就决定了在地震全波形反演过程中不必时刻追求地震数据全部信息的匹配,部分信息的匹配就有可能解决现阶段的某些问题,还可以一定程度上规避匹配全部地震信息所遇到的强烈非线性难题.基于这样的考虑,我们提出了利用地震数据子集进行波形反演的思路,给出了统一的反演方法,并通过基于包络数据子集以及反射波数据子集的波形反演的理论模型与实际资料反演试验,证明了所提出的波形反演思路和方法的正确性.     

北京平原西北部地壳浅部结构和隐伏活动断裂——由地震反射剖面揭示

已有地质和地球物理研究结果表明,北京平原区存在有多条第四纪隐伏活动断裂和隐伏盆地.为了研究该区的地壳浅部结构、断裂的空间展布、断裂活动性以及深浅构造关系,2006年,在北京平原的西北部地区完成了1条60次覆盖的中深层地震反射剖面和跨断裂的浅层地震反射剖面.结果表明,沿剖面结晶基底埋深约为3～6 km在结晶基底以上,地震反射剖面揭示了一套连续性较好的强反射震相,应是新生代、中生代和古生代的沉积岩系;在结晶基底之下,为一系列横向连续性较差、能量较弱的短小反射事件,可能代表了变质程度较高的结晶变质岩系或不成层的其他岩体.中深层和浅层地震剖面揭示的断裂具有上下一致的对应关系和明显的第四纪活动,对本区地堑-地垒状盆岭构造和新生代地层厚度具有重要的控制作用.本项研究不仅可进一步提高对北京地区新构造活动的认识,而且研究中所采用的方法技术对其他地区的深浅构造探测研究也有借鉴意义     

基于声学全波形反演的油气藏地震成像方法

岩性油气藏在我国天然气勘探开发中占有非常重要的位置,其分布区域的成像是合理布设井位,提高钻井成功率的关键之一.本文首先基于地下介质的声学近似和波场回传理论,利用频率域单程声波方程延拓计算地震波场,进行全波形反演,获得地层密度和体积模量的定量成像,并依据油气藏物性特征和流体饱和多孔介质岩石物理模型,简要讨论了孔隙度和饱和度与密度及体积模量的关系,明确了地震油气藏成像新概念.在此基础上,定义了基于流体体积模量和孔隙度的成像函数,进行油气藏成像.理论模型计算表明该方法是可行的.通过对西部地区某气田二维地震数据处理,实现了致密砂岩气藏成像,钻井结果证实了气藏区域成像位置的准确性和方法的有效性.     

新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定

地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型是概率地震危险性分析的两个核心。在新版地震区划图中,依据板内地震活动空间不均匀性分布的特点,在概率地震危险性分析方法(CPSHA)中采用了由地震统计区、背景潜在震源区和构造潜在震源区构成的三级层次性潜在震源区模型,并构建了相应的地震活动性模型。本文在论述CPSHA方法及其地震活动性模型基本概念的基础上,重点介绍了新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的三级潜在震源区模型的构成、地震活动性假定和基本特点,同时,也对新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的重要参数确定思路、方法与结果进行了介绍。本文将为更好地认识与理解我国新版地震动参数区划图提供有益的参考。     

福建省历史强震目录的复核与评述

１９９５年出版的《中国历史强震目录》对１９８８年出版的《中国地震简目》所收录的福建历史强震目录作了全面的修订。增、删、改地震１６次,占原目录同一时段地震数的６１．５％。本文通过核查,分析地震史料,利用中国东部烈度衰减规律,参考现今闽台地震的实际烈度资料,并考虑台湾强震波及影响,对历史强震参数变动较大的１１次地震进行了复核与评述,认为其大部分地震参数的变动是需要商榷的。为此,对所增、删、改的地震分别     

川滇地区地震危险性数值分析

川滇地区地处我国南北地震带南段,近百年来地震活动性持续较高,该地区未来强震预测研究备受关注.本文根据该区域百年时间内发生的30次M_S＞6.5历史地震,结合区域地质背景及GPS观测数据等,建立区域有限元准三维弹性模型,通过反演给定区域特定时刻合理的初始应力场.在此基础上,综合考虑地震孕育阶段和震后调整阶段的动力学过程,以库仑-摩尔破裂准则作为判断地震发生的条件,模拟单次地震过程和历史地震序列的发展过程.同时,对于数值模拟中的不确定性成分,通过大量Monte Carlo随机试验得到5000种初始应力场模型,确保所有模型均能重现历史地震的发震过程,最终得到现今应力场状态,并据此计算地震危险性系数,将不同模型的计算结果进行概率统计,初步得到研究区域2017年九寨沟地震后的地震危险性概率分布.结果显示历史地震破裂区的危险性概率大幅降低,相对安全;而龙门山断裂带东北段发震概率高达30%,主要是受2008年汶川地震震后应力扰动的影响;龙门山断裂带西南段(包括汶川地震破裂区与芦山地震破裂区的中间区域)与鲜水河断裂带交界处发震概率约为15%~20%;另外滇西南龙陵瑞丽断裂带及澜沧江断裂带附近发震概率约为10%~15%,近年来滇西南地区小震频发,该地区地震危险性同样值得注意.

     

中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展

本文分析了中强地震活动地区的地震灾害特点,指出了加强中强地震活动地区地震区划的重要性,回顾了中强地震活动地区的地震活动性参数确定、潜在震源区确定、地震动衰减关系等方面的研究进展,并对主要技术环节的方法改进提出了建议。     

Seismic hazard in Buenos Aires,Argentina: A preliminary study on the effects of long‐distance earthquakes on tall buildings

The 2015 Illapel earthquake produced self‐evacuation of tall buildings in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, located 1280 km away from the epicenter. The ground motions in Buenos Aires due to the main event (M_w 8.3) and its aftershocks were registered by a new seismometer. The data collected allowed to estimate the maximum story drift ratios and top floor accelerations for tall buildings in Buenos Aires. The similarities between the response spectra and the Fourier amplitude spectra for the mainshock and its aftershocks show the influence that the dynamic properties of the 300‐m soil deposit have on the large acceleration amplification produced in these groups of buildings.     

Recognition of the zones of seismic hazard in Polish Coal mines by using a seismic method

In the Upper Silesian Coal Field the seismic hazard induced by mining operations in collieries is closely related to the rockburst hazard. A seismic method is used for premonitory recognition of the zones of seismic hazard. It takes advantage of the relationship between the velocity of propagation of seismic waves and the state of stress existing in the rock. It consists of the determination of the velocity field of artificially induced seismic waves in a studied fragment of the rock, and of locating the velocity anomaly. The position of the velocity anomaly zones and their intensity are the basis for estimating the seismic hazard in advance of mining works.     

Research on the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence in the Daduhe Drainage Area

This paper applies the Seismic Hazard Analysis method for the cities of China to research on the probability of earthquake occurrence in the Daduhe drainage area, where the cascade dam system is located. This research is based on the potential seismic source scheme of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China （2001）, and uses Poisson distribution as an earthquake occurrence model. Earthquake magnitude obeys truncated exponential distribution. The spatial distribution function of the potential seismic source zone is taken as the first-class spatial probability distribution, and the homogeneous probability distribution in the potential seismic source zone as the second-class spatial probability distribution. Considering the seismic intensity attenuation relationship of western China, we compute the occurrence probability of an earthquake around magnitude 6.0 （5.5 - 6.5）, 7.0 （6.5 - 7.5） and over 7.5 in the Daduhe drainage area, where 22 series cascade dams will be built. The results can be used for hydropower plant planning, hydropower dam site selection and seismic fortification.     

三河—平谷8.0级地震区地壳结构和活动断裂研究——利用单次覆盖深反射和浅层地震剖面

跨1679年三河—平谷8.0级地震区完成的单次覆盖深地震反射剖面和浅层地震反射剖面,揭示了三河—平谷地震区的地壳结构和断裂的深、浅构造特征.结果表明,该区地壳以TWT6~7 s左右的强反射带为界分为上地壳和下地壳,上地壳厚约18~21 km,下地壳厚约13~15 km.剖面揭示的地壳深断裂和浅部活动断裂具有上下一致的对应关系,其中,陡倾角的深断裂切割了下地壳和壳幔过渡带,向上延伸至上地壳,将地壳深部构造与浅部活动断裂联系在一起,这种深、浅共存的断裂构造体系是控制该区地震孕育和发生的重要因素,也是三河—平谷8.0级地震的深、浅构造背景.     

断层协调比方法在云南地区地震预测中的应用研究

采用断层协调比方法,对云南省内所有跨断层场地进行了计算,利用3倍标准差为阈值,统计分析协调比参数单测点单项异常、单测点和多测点准同步异常与云南省内M≥6地震的关系。结果表明多测点协调比准同步异常与云南省内M≥6地震有很好的对应关系,在研究时段内出现的14次准同步异常后的1～16个月统计范围内,均有M≥6地震发生,无一虚报,且对应地震集中分布于川滇菱形块体内,占比64%。因此,跨断层多测点协调比准同步异常可作为年度判定指标运用于日常数据跟踪分析。     

天山北部强震活动对区域应力扰动的分析以2012年伊犁M6.6地震和2017年精河M6.6地震为例

天山地区为典型地震活跃区, 为定量分析该构造活跃区强震对周边构造变形和地震活动的影响, 本文基于地震位错理论和岩石圈分层模型计算了天山北部近期发生的2012年伊犁和2017年精河两次M6.6地震对周围地壳形变和应力的影响。 计算结果显示伊犁地震和精河M6.6地震引起震中附近地表同震位移达数厘米, 地表同震应变量级约为10^-7; 对比天山北部地区年平均构造形变特征, M6.6强震释放了震中附近近十年的构造主压应变积累; 地震引起震中附近(80 km内)同震库仑应力变化大于1 kPa, 而距震中较远区域活动断层上库仑应力变化微弱。 结合天山北部现今地壳变形特征及区域地震分布, 初步推测两次M6.6地震的发生对震后余震有显著的触发作用, 而对区域后续微震活动的影响微弱。     

斐济地区深震相特征分析

在单台速报工作中,准确确定震源深度与确定其他参数相比难度更大一些。本研究对太原地震台记录的斐济地区中源、深源地震事件进行了详细分析,总结了该区震相特征规律,以此特征规律用于分析该地区地震,可以较准确地确定震源深度。