天津地区表层土壤多环芳烃类污染物污染源辨析

利用因子分析法及离散点曲面张力样条函数插值法对天津地区表层土壤多环芳烃类污染物污染源的类型及空间分布进行分析,表明研究区不同土地利用类型的污染源大多以混合源（包括燃煤与原油渗漏）为主,其中污灌农田、普通农田、荒地和城市绿地中混合源所占比重依次为61.26%、69.35%、52.86%、64.45%。而各污染源在空间分布上与其所处地理位置、地理条件及该区域内人们的生活习性都比较符合。     

Complex P waveforms from a Gulf of Aden earthquake

Summary. It is shown that complex teleseismic P waveforms from a shallow earthquake in a tectonic area can be interpreted using a simple source model embedded in a plane layer velocity structure (with sea layer) whose details are based upon independent evidence. This gives hope that structural complexity in tectonic regions may not always make distant P -wave seismograms impossible to interpret, and that, instead, source complexity may be responsible for some of the many complex waveforms observed, even for earthquakes below magnitude m _b 5.5.     

Insights from a Simple Hotelling Model of the World Oil Market

This paper uses annual data on world oil price and consumption from 1965 to 2006 to calibrate a Hotelling model of optimal nonrenewable resource extraction. Numerical solutions are generated for various specifications of the elasticity of demand for both isoelastic demand and linear demand under each of two possible market structures: perfect competition and monopoly. Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, the model that best fits actual data is one of perfect competition with linear demand and a demand elasticity of −0.4. For the periods 1973–1981 and 1981–1990, the model that best fits actual data is one of monopoly with linear demand and demand elasticities of −0.8 and −0.7, respectively, suggesting that the market was strongly influenced by OPEC during this time. Under the model that best fits the most recent period (perfect competition with linear demand and demand elasticity −0.5), the real oil price (in 1982–1984 U.S.$) should fall in the range $60.87–$66.31/barrel over the years 2010–2030.

基于航空影像和LiDAR数据的海地地震滑坡识别研究

快速、准确地判别滑坡灾害范围对灾情评估与救灾指挥至关重要。将高分辨率航空影像和机载LiDAR数据相结合,能充分利用滑坡体的光谱特征、几何形态与空间结构特征,提高滑坡识别的准确度。该文以海地地震诱发的滑坡识别为例,介绍了面向对象的滑坡识别思路及方法;针对海地滑坡灾害特点,选择了相应的灾害特征,并经反复试验设定了特征参数阈值;针对面向对象分类过程中特征组合与选择这一瓶颈问题,以河流沉积物和滑坡判别为例,通过特征组合试验与对比分析,发现基于NDVI与坡度特征组合的分类结果明显优于单一特征及其它组合模式的分类结果。与最大似然分类法相比,该方法的分类结果更为准确、精度更高。     

不同碳源强化地下水中生物脱氮模拟试验研究

地下水中NO3^-N污染是普遍存在的环境问题,生物脱氮作用是去除该污染的主要机制,而生物脱氮菌群和营养碳源又是这种作用进行的主要限制性因子,该文应用这一理论将人工接种驯化并优势培养制备的生物脱氮菌剂,分别与不同种类不同配入量比的营养碳源物质一起施用,进行系列污染水体的生物脱氮模拟试验研究,以确定用于治理地下水中NO3－N污染的微生物菌剂和促进生物脱氮作用的营养碳源种类及其最佳配入量比值,探索修复治理地下水中大面积NO3－N污染的方法。     

A Simple Way to Model Nonsynchronous Generation of Oil and Gas from Kerogen

Many kinetic models for oil and gas generation use the same kinetics for generation of both oil and gas. In these models, gas is generated at precisely the same time as oil, despite agreement among geochemists that oil generation in nature largely precedes gas generation. Here we present a method for deriving separate kinetics for oil generation and gas generation from the available kinetics for total hydrocarbon generation. The method is based on published data in which oil kinetics are compiled separately from gas kinetics, but it is generalized to be applicable to any of the main kerogen types (I, IIa, IIb, or III), or to any mixtures of those types. Application of this new nonsynchronous model shows that the traditional synchronous models overpredict gas generation by about a factor of two within the oil window, and conversely severely underpredict late gas generation. The nonsynchronous model may predict gas generation several tens of million years later than does the synchronous model. The errors inherent in the synchronous models can be of significance in exploration decisions.     

Sources of recent tectonic stress in the Pannonian region:inferences from finite element modelling

We present the results of finite element modelling of the recent stress field in the Pannonian basin and surrounding Alpine orogenic belt. Our results show that the recent, predominantly compressive, stress regime in the Alpine–Pannonian–Carpathian–Dinaric system is governed by distinct tectonic factors. Of great importance is the deformation of crustal blocks with different geometries and rigidities in an overall convergent setting associated with the Africa–Europe collision. The most important stress source appears to be the counterclockwise rotation of the Adriatic microplate at the southwest boundary of the Pannonian basin. This plate tectonic unit has been interpreted as moving independently of both the European plate and the African plate. Additional boundary conditions—active shortening and compression in the Vrancea zone and the Bohemian Massif, and the effect of the immobile Moesian Platform—also significantly influence the modelling results. The incorporation of additional stress sources such as crustal thickness variation and the presence of two main fault zones separating the primary tectonic units in the study area have only locally important effects but improve the fit between the calculated results and the observed stress pattern.     

Sources of Uncertainty in Shear Stress and Roughness Length Estimates Derived from Velocity Profiles*

Shear stress is a fundamental parameter in many sediment transport expressions. It is commonly estimated from information contained in the velocity profile, specifically, shear velocity, u_*, and roughness length, z₀ Under ideal conditions, the functional relationship between elevation above the bed and flow velocity is log-linear, as expressed by the “law of the wall.” Unless the field data conform exactly to this ideal relationship, there is uncertainty in estimates of u_* and z₀. derived from velocity profiles. This uncertainty depends on the degree of scatter or deviation from the assumed log-linear model. Expressions are presented to quantify the error and to correct for it. Guidelines are suggested to minimize potential uncertainty, especially with regard to instrument deployment and velocity profile analysis. Calculation of confidence intervals around estimates of u_* and z₀, as proposed by Wilkinson (1984), is necessary and recommended.