舟山北部海域海底淡水资源研究

利用舟山北部海域2009年完成的高分辨率单道地震测量成果,结合前人调查资料和邻近的上海长江三角洲陆地地区水文地质资料,对地震资料进行了解译和综合分析研究,查明了海底第四纪松散沉积物分布规律,初步圈定了早更新世时期的长江古河道和钱塘江占河道位置.结果揭示在调查区西部钱塘江口北侧、嵊泗列岛和"嵊泗二井"以北、嵊泗东北部海域...     

发扬李四光地震预报的科学思想

李四光教授关于地震地质工作中地震预报方面的重要观点和思想主要包括:地应力变化与地震密切相关;地震活动带中也存在相对安全的地区(“安全岛”理论);地震地质调查是地震预报的基础;地震是可以预测的,地应力的变化过程是地震预报的关键.他的“安全岛”理论及地震预报思想至今仍有着十分重要的理论意义和现实意义.     

谈谈地震台站的电源建设

本文针对地震台站数字化监测仪器常因交流电源供给问题而发生故障进行了讨论 ,认为造成这种现象的主要原因是电压波动范围大、供电线路的突然通断等。提出安装一台交流参数稳压电源 ,配备一台不间断电源等解决方案。     

杭州湾北部海底天然气的浅地层剖面测量调查

利用浅地层剖面测量,对杭州湾北部地区的海底浅层天然气进行了调查与分析。探测结果呈现空白与幕状屏蔽、柱状扰动,顶界面不规则、两侧相位下拉等特征,显示该区域存在大量浅层天然气。分析结果表明：调查区域内的海底天然气整体埋藏较浅,深度通常在15~25m之间,赋存于中全新统砂层中,为甲烷型生物气,气体压力不大,属自生自储类型。圈划出了海域浅层气分布范围。成果可为未来海洋工程建设和浅层气灾害防治提供依据。     

关于在地震预报中遇到的几个问题的探讨

地震台站工作人员 ,在进行观测资料分析、地震预报研究过程中 ,往往会遇到的几个问题 :1、手段单一 ,对于前兆现象无法全面表述。 2、如何识别异常与地震之间的关系。 3、如何兼顾点和面的关系。     

我国海底地貌研究进展及其在东海近海的新发现、新认识

在分析海底地貌学国内外研究现状基础之上,综述我国海底地貌的最新研究进展和发展历程,探讨今后我国近海地貌的研究发展方向:我国现代海底地貌学研究虽然起步较晚,但总的趋势是随着测量技术的不断更新,由宏观向微观、从大的地貌类型向特定的地貌体、从形态特征到地貌过程的研究,并着重研究人类活动与地貌过程的响应关系。针对"908专项"在我国近海海域的调查成果,着重介绍其在我国东海近海海域地形地貌研究中的新发现、新认识:长江口外古潮流沙脊群可分为堆积型、侵蚀—堆积型和侵蚀型潮流沙脊群3种类型;在福建闽江口近岸的马祖列岛和白犬列岛之间发现多条呈SW—NE走向、条带状分布的潮流沙脊,面积约200 km2,水深在15～30 m;在东海陆架沙脊区与金门岛外发现2处新的海底礁石。这些全新的发现和认识对于我国近海海底地貌的研究将起到丰富和推动作用。     

南中国海存在天然气水合物的地球物理证据

以多道高分辨率地震数据为基础,分析了天然气水合物地震识别的关键技术,即地震成像与地震反演.地震成像结果显示南中国海可能具有含天然气水合物地层的地震反射特征,包括似海底反射(BSR)、振幅空白带、BSR与沉积地层斜交等天然气水合物存在的标志性特征,是南中国海域存在天然气水合物的定性地球物理证据;而地震反演结果则揭示该研究区存在地层速度结构异常,是南中国海存在天然气水合物的定量地球物理证据.     

中国东部海域地质特征及一些重要大地构造界线在海区延伸的地质地球物理证据

本文通过对中国东部海域地质地球物理资料进行综合分析,特别是近十年来海洋区域地质调查最新采集的地球物理资料,梳理了研究区基础地质特征,探讨了陆区大地构造单元在海区的延伸。研究表明:渤海和北黄海为典型的华北型基底并发育华北型沉积盖层;南黄海为典型的扬子型基底并发育扬子型沉积盖层;东海陆架为华夏型基底,东部很可能发育晚古生代沉积盖层,其上叠置了晚三叠世以来沉积盖层。下扬子地块西侧通过左旋走滑的郯庐断裂带,东侧通过右旋走滑的朝鲜西缘断裂带揳入华北地块中,朝鲜西缘断裂带兼具走滑和俯冲带性质。整个朝鲜半岛无论从变质基底和沉积盖层来看都类似于华北地块。扬子地块在北侧和东侧都发育“鳄鱼嘴”式构造,扬子地块的下地壳向北、向东俯冲于华北地块之下,而上地壳则仰冲于华北地块之上。江绍结合带表现为宽50~70 km的NE向高磁异常条带,进入杭州湾后走向转为近EW向,经舟山群岛、大衢山岛及附近岛屿,过东海陆架虎皮礁凸起向东进入日本九州岛。虎皮礁凸起的岩石很可能类似于大衢山岛,为一套俯冲增生杂岩。     

大陆板内地震的发震机理与地震预报——以汶川地震为例

大陆板内地震主要产于新生代厚壳造山带或高原,在平面上呈弥散状分布,在剖面上震源沿中地壳成层分布,为浅源地震.盆山活动断层系统呈规律性组合,盆山挤压边界为逆冲型压性发震断层;盆山走滑转换边界为走滑型扭性发震断层;造山带内部主要是伸展型张性发震断层.大陆板内地壳分层流变作用制约了板内地震的构造物理过程.大陆下地壳韧性流层为地震活动提供了热能,热软化和热融化介质发生缓慢的韧性流动,是孕震构造;中地壳韧-脆性剪切带发生热-应力转换,聚积应力和应变,为蕴震构造;当下地壳流动在中地壳积累的应变超过上地壳特定构造部位介质的应力-应变极限时,上地壳形成脆性发震断层,产生地震.震源出现在上地壳脆性断层与中地壳脆-韧性剪切带的交汇部位,青藏高原的震源深度通常为12～35 km.目前地震预报是世界科学难题,然而,大陆动力学和板内地震的理论突破可能为短临预报提供了新思路.如果大陆下地壳热动力作用是中地壳产生地震和上地壳发生地震的根源,那么上地壳脆性断层活动会释放出地壳深部的热流体和热气体,引起局部的地温异常、水文异常和大气异常.建议从大气到地表再到地下系统地监测活动断层带及邻区的地下水、地表水、大气的温度异常和成分变化,结合观测下地壳流层厚度、地应力-应交变化、重力异常、磁异常、地电异常等,综合评价地壳活动性和发震可能性.2008年5月12日发生的里氏8.0级汶川地震处于龙门山造山带与四川盆地的构造边界上,是典型的大陆板内地震,震源处于映秀-北川断层上,震源深度为12 km.350 km长的地表破裂带呈右行左阶雁行排列在具有逆冲和右行走滑性质的汶川-茂县-青川、映秀-北川和江油-都江堰3条断层带上.下地壳的韧性流动伴随中地壳韧-脆性剪切带应力和应变的积累,产生上地壳脆性活动断层,并控制地表破裂带和滑坡的分布.     

A generalized geo-hazard warning system

An automated geo-hazard warning system is the need of the hour. It is integration of automation in hazard evaluation and warning communication. The primary objective of this paper is to explain a geo-hazard warning system based on Internet-resident concept and available cellular mobile infrastructure that makes use of geo-spatial data. The functionality of the system is modular in architecture having input, understanding, expert, output and warning modules. Thus, the system provides flexibility in integration between different types of hazard evaluation and communication systems leading to a generalized hazard warning system. The developed system has been validated for landslide hazard in Indian conditions. It has been realized through utilization of landslide causative factors, rainfall forecast from NASA??s TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and knowledge base of landslide hazard intensity map and invokes the warning as warranted. The system evaluated hazard commensurate with expert evaluation within 5?C6?% variability, and the warning message permeability has been found to be virtually instantaneous, with a maximum time lag recorded as 50?s, minimum of 10?s. So it could be concluded that a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning has been developed and implemented. Such a handy system could be very useful in a densely populated country where people are unaware of the impending hazard.     

A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures

It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic, geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and, of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature, defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4–5, 1994; July 7–8, 1996; April 27–30, 2000; October 13–16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity–duration plot, the critical limit is described by the equation: I=19D^−0.50 (where I=rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D=rainfall duration expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI–D diagram the triggering thresholds are given by the equations NI=0.76D^−0.33 and NI=4.62D^−0.79 (where NI=normalised intensity with respect to the annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA]×100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is discussed. Finally, the diagram NI–NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression: NI=−0.09ln[NCR]+0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA]×100). The application of the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslide-prone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is described.     

基于ARCGIS的矿山开采沉陷灾害预警系统

为了实现与环境协调的矿产资源开采,提出建立并开发了矿山开采沉陷灾害预警系统。以美国大型软件ARCGIS为开发平台,采用ARCMap Object开发方法开发了矿山开采沉陷灾害预警系统;建立了该系统计算参数的位移反分析模型,引入单纯形优化方法,编制了系统计算参数的位移反分析模块;进行了实例计算分析。第1个实例分析了某工作面开采引起的地表沉陷灾害,并与CXYJ2001的计算结果对比,验证了系统的计算可靠性,并展示了系统的功能。第2个实例是对江苏姚桥煤矿开采方案引起的地表沉陷灾害预警分析,优化了开采方案。研究表明,系统是实现与环境协调的矿产资源开采的重要辅助手段。最后,介绍了进一步工作的方向。     

煤矿突水监测预警系统中的关键技术

开展煤矿水害预警监测是实现煤矿安全开采、减少水害损失的关键。通过对煤矿突水监测预警系统研究和发展现状的分析,结合部分矿井的监测实践,指出煤矿突水监测预警系统中的关键技术是监测参数的选择、监测设备的稳定性与精确度、监测地点的选择与钻孔布置、预警阈值及报警设置等4个方面,提出了煤矿突水监测预警系统优化和完善的思路。     

The human component in flood warning and flood response system

The disign of flood warning — flood response systems is often performed as part of the overall engineering analysis of flood damage mitigation schemes. However, an important part of the flood response component of such systems is human perception of the flood hazard and its implication for the responses undertaken. This human dimension is examined from three viewpoints, the perception of the flood, the issues in the warning dissemination process, and the implications for the actions undertaken by individual flood plain occupants in response to a warning. Evidence is provided to show how the human characteristics of the flood plain occupants can signigicantly affect the benefits derived from a flood warning — flood response system. The importance of these non-engineering aspects of the problem leads to recommendations for closer collaboration between traditional technical experts and social scientists. The cooperation should extend beyond the assessment of the reduction in flood damages expected from a particular flood warning scheme into actual design of the dissemination process and response mechanisms.     

GIS-PModflow联合系统在松嫩平原西部潜水环境预警中的应用

针对松嫩平原西部地下水潜水位变化对环境产生影响的现状,运用GIS-PModflow联合系统确定了地下水环境预警警戒线,采用以不至于发生土壤盐碱化的潜水临界水位作为上警戒线值,以潜水开采极限深度作为下警戒线值。在对系统模型概化的基础上,进行了潜水位的数值模拟和预报。利用GIS空间分析方法对图像数据进行栅格叠加和属性判断,通过对预报水位与警戒水位对比,进行水环境预警。结果表明,研究区2015年的警情较1999年增加,且以灌溉后潜水位上升引起的土壤次生盐渍化的警情为主。