Risk analyses for dry snow slab avalanches released by skier triggering

Since human triggering is responsible for about 90 % of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America, risk analysis is very important for skier triggering of avalanches. The depth to the weak layer and the slope angle are two key measureable quantities prior to dry slab avalanche release. Both are important in risk analysis. The probability of avalanche release dramatically increases as the slope angle increases above 25°. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase rapidly if an avalanche releases. Simple risk analyses for skier triggering were done for both slope angle and slab depth. The slab depth analysis showed there is a range of about 0.6–1.0 m for which the risk of death is highest. For slope angles, the range with highest risk was shown to be 33°–45° within the known range (25°–55°) for skier-triggered avalanches.     

Effects of Release Conditions Uncertainty on Avalanche Hazard Mapping

Dynamical models for calculating snow avalanche motion have gained growingimportance in recent years for avalanche hazard assessment. Nevertheless, inherentuncertainties in their input-data specification, although well acknowledged, areusually not explicitly incorporated into the analysis and considered in the mappingresults. In particular, the estimate of avalanche release conditions is affected bystrong uncertainties when associated to a return period. These sources of error arenormally addressed through sensitivity analysis or conservative parameters estimate.However, each of these approaches has limitations in assessing the statistical implications of uncertainties.In the present paper the problem of release scenarios randomness is looked at following a Monte Carlo procedure. This statistical sampling-analysis method allows the evaluation of the probability distributions of relevant variables for avalanche hazard assessment – such as runout distance and impact pressure – once the release variables – essentially releasedepth and release length – are expressed in terms of probability distributions, accounting explicitly for inherent uncertainties in their definition. Both the theoretical framework of this procedure and its application to a real study case are presented. As initial step of this research in the present work the attention is mainly focused on flowing avalanches descending on open slopes. Therefore, the one-dimensional version of VARA dynamic models is usedfor avalanche simulations.     

Deterministic strong ground motion study for the Sitamarhi area near Bihar–Nepal region

We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.     

Large-scale assessment of avalanche and debris flow hazards in the Sakhalin region,Russian Federation

We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.

     

雪崩灾害防治研究进展及展望

雪崩是冰冻圈内主要的自然灾害之一,严重威胁高寒山区内的交通廊道、能源输送和通信干线、矿区、牧区、旅游区等安全并造成基础设施毁坏和人畜死伤,阻碍山区社会经济的可持续发展。随着气候变化和人类活动不断向高寒山区扩展,暴露在雪崩危险之下的人口及基础设施日趋增多,雪崩的风险显著增强。为保障山区的社会经济可持续发展,对雪崩灾害防治管理需求不断增加。在梳理我国1960年以来主要雪崩研究进展基础上,结合世界各地雪崩研究成果,总结了雪崩的影响因素和区域规律、雪崩的形成与运动机理、雪崩监测预警、雪崩风险评估和雪崩工程防治等方面的进展和亟须研究的前沿问题以及科学难点。同时本文论述了气候变化对雪崩活动的影响,以及人类活动与雪崩活动之间的相互影响,展望了未来雪崩防灾减灾的需求并提出对策,推动雪崩防灾减灾研究。     

Research progress and prospect of snow avalanche disaster prevention and control北大核心CSCD

Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard in the cryosphere. It seriously threatens transportation corridors, energy transmission and communication lines, mining and touristic areas in the cold mountainous regions and often causes the destruction of infrastructure and human casualties, hindering the sustainable development of society and economy in mountainous areas. Under climate change and the expansion of human activities to alpine mountains, more population and infrastructure will expose to the risk of avalanches. In order to ensure the sustainable development in mountainous areas, the demand for the prevention and management of avalanche disasters is increasing. Based on the review of the main avalanche research progress in China since 1960 and the avalanche research results all over the world, this paper summarized the progress on the influencing factors and regional distribution of avalanche activities, avalanche formation and movement mechanism, avalanche monitoring and early warning, avalanche risk assessment and engineering prevention, as well as the frontier problems and scientific difficulties that need to be studied. In addition, the impact of climate change on avalanche activities and the interaction between human activities and avalanche activities are discussed. By looking forward to the future needs of avalanche disaster prevention and reduction, including the countermeasures, the research on avalanche in China is promoted. © 2022 by the Author(s).     

Avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas

An innovative methodology to perform avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas is herewith presented and discussed. The method combines GIS tools, computational routines, and statistical analysis in order to provide a “semi-automatic” definition of areas potentially affected by avalanche release and motion. The method includes two main modules. The first module is used to define zones of potential avalanche release, based on the consolidated relations on slope, morphology, and vegetation. For each of the identified zones of potential release, a second module, named Avalanche Flow and Run-out Algorithm (AFRA), provides an automatic definition of the areas potentially affected by avalanche motion and run-out. The definition is generated by a specifically implemented “flow-routing algorithm” which allows for the determination of flow behaviour in the track and in the run-out zone. In order to estimate the avalanche outline in the run-out zone, AFRA uses a “run-out cone”, which is a 3D projection of the angle of reach α. The α-value is evaluated by statistical analysis of historical data regarding extreme avalanches. Pre- and post-processing of the AFRA input/output data is done in an open source GIS environment (GRASS GIS). The method requires only a digital terrain model and an indication of the areas covered by forest as input parameters. The procedure, which allows rapid mapping of large areas, does not in principle require any site-specific historical information. Furthermore, it has proven to be effective in all cases where a preliminary cost-efficient analysis of the territories potentially affected by snow avalanche was needed.     

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots

Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km² was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.     

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.     

Avalanche hazards and mitigation in Austria: a review

At all times natural hazards like torrents or avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructures in the Austrian Alps. Since 1950 more than 1,600 persons have been killed by avalanches in Austria, which is on average approximately 30 fatalities per year. In particular, the winter periods 1950/1951 and 1953/1954 stand out with more than 100 fatalities. Those events led to an increase of avalanche control programmes in the following decades. While from the 1950s to the 1970s emphasis was placed on permanent measures (technical structures, afforestations, hazard zoning ...) additional programmes such as avalanche warning and forecasting have supplemented avalanche control measures in the last decades. Current research is focused on avalanche simulation, risk management and the influence of the forest on avalanche formation. An important area of future research is to develop improved methods for avalanche forecasting and to intensify the investigation of the dynamics of avalanches.     

Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie,Québec,Canada

Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard for road users and infrastructure in northern Gaspésie. Over the past 11 years, the occurrence of nearly 500 snow avalanches on the two major roads servicing the area was reported. No management program is currently operational. In this study, we analyze the weather patterns promoting snow avalanche initiation and use logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probability of avalanche occurrence on a daily basis. We then test the best LR models over the 2012–2013 season in an operational forecasting perspective: Each day, the probability of occurrence (0–100%) determined by the model was classified into five classes avalanche danger scale. Our results show that avalanche occurrence along the coast is best predicted by 2 days of accrued snowfall [in water equivalent (WE)], daily rainfall, and wind speed. In the valley, the most significant predictive variables are 3 days of accrued snowfall (WE), daily rainfall, and the preceding 2 days of thermal amplitude. The large scree slopes located along the coast and exposed to strong winds tend to be more reactive to direct snow accumulation than the inner-valley slopes. Therefore, the probability of avalanche occurrence increases rapidly during a snowfall. The slopes located in the valley are less responsive to snow loading. The LR models developed prove to be an efficient tool to forecast days with high levels of snow avalanche activity. Finally, we discuss how road maintenance managers can use this forecasting tool to improve decision making and risk rendering on a daily basis.     

Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment using Copula modeling technique

A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are independent. In this paper, a general approach is proposed to consider the possible dependence among hazard elements. Part of the Seattle, WA area was selected to evaluate the competence of the presented method. A total of 357 slope failure events and their corresponding topography and geology data were included in the study to develop and test the model. Based on the results, the mean success rates of the presented model in predicting landslide occurrence are 90 % in hazardous area and 12 % in safe locations on average, while these success rates are 63 and 44 % when these hazard elements were treated as mutually independent.     

Characteristics and mitigation of the snow avalanche hazard in Kaghan Valley,Pakistan Himalaya

Snow avalanche hazards in mountainous areas of developing countries have received scant attention in the scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to describe this hazard and mitigative measures in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan Himalaya, and to review alternatives for future reduction of this hazard. Snow avalanches have long posed a hazard and risk to indigenous populations of the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya mountains. Land use intensification due to population growth, new transportation routes, military activity and tourism is raising levels of risk. The history of land use in the study area is such that investigations of avalanche hazard must rely on different theoretical bases and data than in most industrialised countries. Despite the intensive use of valley-bottom land which is affected by avalanches, a number of simple measures are currently employed by the indigenous population to mitigate the hazard. Out-migration during the winter months is the most important one. During the intensive use period of summer avalanche-transported snow provides numerous resources for the population. In Kaghan the avalanche hazard is increasing primarily as a result of poorly located new buildings and other construction projects. The large scale of avalanche activity there rules out any significant improvement or protection of the currently difficult winter access. Instead, future mitigation of the hazard should focus on protecting the small number of winter inhabitants and minimising property damage.     

Characteristics and numerical runout modelling of a catastrophic rock avalanche triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake in the Wenjia valley,Mianzhu, Sichuan,China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered more than 100 rock avalanches with volumes greater than 10 million cubic metres. The rock avalanche with the longest runout amongst these destructive landslides occurred in the Wenjia valley, Mianzhu, Sichuan, China. The landslide involved the failure of about 27.5 million cubic metres of sandstone from the source area. The displaced material travelled about 4,170 m with an elevation descent of about 1,360 m, equivalent to a fahrböschung of 16.9° and covered an area of 1.5 million square metres, with the final deposited volume of approximately 49 million cubic metres. The catastrophic event destroyed the village of Yanjing, killed 48 people and buried some houses at the mouth of the Wenjia valley. On the basis of a detailed field investigation, we introduce basic characteristics of the rock avalanche and find that the rock avalanche resulted in two run-ups and a superelevation along the runout path, and downslope enlargement due to the entrainment of path materials. A numerical model (DAN3D) is used to simulate the post-failure behaviour of the rock avalanche. By means of trial and error, a combination of the frictional model and Voellmy model is found to provide the best performance in simulating this rock avalanche. The simulation results reveal that the rock avalanche had a duration of about 240 s and an average velocity of 17.4 m/s.     

高速远程冰-岩碎屑流研究进展

冰-岩碎屑流是高寒山区陡峭山体斜坡区冰崩、岩崩或滑坡解体后形成的冰屑、岩块和土颗粒混合体高速流动现象.由于裹挟了冰屑,冰-岩碎屑流具有超强的运动性,屡屡引发震惊世人的灾难性事件,是全球气候变暖大背景下地质灾害研究的热点与前沿问题.通过对近40余年来的研究进展进行梳理和评述,指出了冰-岩碎屑流的概念由来和主流定义方法,阐述了其成因机制的气候敏感性,结合典型实例论述了区域发育特征,重点分析了运动特征、减阻机理和冰屑影响机制.冰-岩碎屑流的超强运动性被认为与低摩擦冰减阻机理、摩擦热融减阻机理、侧限约束减阻机理密切相关.冰屑作为材料组分和融水来源,能够降低界面摩擦、改变冰-水-岩相互作用,进而形成复杂的热-水-力耦合作用.今后应加强研究冰-岩碎屑流事件的成因机制和时空分布规律、运动特性和冰屑影响机制、过程演化观测与预警评估技术,以期揭示冰-岩碎屑流运动机理,为冰-岩碎屑流及链生灾害的科学减灾提供有力支撑.      

Numerical runout simulation of debris avalanches in the Faroe Islands, North Atlantic Ocean

The Faroe Islands in the North Atlantic Ocean are susceptible to flow-type landslides in coarse-grained highly organic colluvium. Following several hazardous debris avalanche events, research work has been initiated to quantify landslide risk. A central task in this work is to predict landslide runout behavior. From numerical simulation of four debris avalanches, this study provides a first screening of which rheology and appertaining input parameters best predict runout behavior of debris avalanches in the Faroe Islands. Three rheologies (frictional, Voellmy, and Bingham) are selected and used for individual back analysis of the events in the numerical models BING and DAN3D. A best fit rheology is selected from comparing predicted and observed landslide runout behavior. General back analysis to identify the optimal input parameters for the chosen rheology is performed by cross validation, where each debris avalanche is modeled with input parameters from the three other events. Optimal input parameters are found from the model run producing the most accurate runout length and velocity. The Bingham is selected as the best fit rheology, a result differing from similar studies of coarse-grained landslides. A reason for why particularly the frictional rheology proves unsuitable is its tendency to produce too long runout lengths of the low-weight runout material, a result showing important limitations for using the frictional rheology in DAN3D. Optimal Bingham input parameters are τ _y ?=?980 Pa and μ _b ?=?117 Pa/s. However, future studies performed in 2D models are needed for precise parameterization before results can be used for landslide risk assessment.     

梅里雪山1991年和2019年雪崩事件重建及影响因素分析北大核心CSCD

梅里雪山雪崩多发,但缺乏系统监测和研究。1991年1月3日梅里雪山发生了造成中日联合登山队17名队员遇难的巨大雪崩事件。2019年安装在明永冰川末端附近的物候相机拍摄到临近梅里雪山明永冰川的一次雪崩事件。两次事件类型不同,这对我们进行雪崩预测预警有良好的指示作用。本研究以RAMMS(Rapid Mass Movement System)模型为手段,利用经验值和经验公式确定影响模拟结果的主要模型参数和积雪可能断裂深度,在优化分析的基础上,对两次雪崩事件进行重建,定量分析雪崩堆积量、堆积范围等。结果显示:1991年雪崩共持续了192s,雪崩体从海拔5730m处断裂,沿坡面崩塌而下最终堆积在海拔约5000m的冰川粒雪盆地区,形成面积为0.6km^(2),体积约67×10^(4)m^(3)的堆积体。2019年雪崩共持续了158s,雪崩流最大高度35.91m,最大速度79.34m·s,堆积量76.2×10^(4)m^(3),雪崩堆积范围与野外观测到的一致。两次雪崩事件发生地位于雪崩极高危险区和高危险区,在一定程度上验证了风险评估的准确性。研究结果可为梅里雪山地区未来潜在雪崩灾害的风险评估提供依据,为雪崩预测预警提供良好的参考。     

Non-Poisson probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The development of the new seismic hazard map of metropolitan Tehran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the non-Poisson recurrence time model. For this model, two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the non-Poisson probabilistic estimates of peak ground accelerations over bedrock for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. To carry out the non-Poisson seismic hazard analysis, appropriate distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were used for the seismotectonic provinces which the study region is located and then the renewal process was applied. In order to calculate the seismic hazard for different return periods in the probabilistic procedure, the study area encompassed by the 49.5–54.5°E longitudes and 34–37°N latitudes was divided into 0.1° intervals generating 1,350 grid points. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.30–0.32 and 0.16–0.17 g for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance, respectively, in 50 years for bedrock condition.     

Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.     

Avalanche Defence Strategies and Monitoring of Two Sites in Mountain Permafrost Terrain, Pontresina, Eastern Swiss Alps

Snow-supporting avalanche defence structures are increasingly being built at high altitudes in potential permafrost areas. Special construction methods and guidelines have been developed to ensure a minimal stability of the structures, which have a vital role in the protection of underlying settlements and transport infrastructure against snow avalanches. If the avalanche slopes are located on ice-rich permafrost terrain, as is the case in a steep avalanche gully above Pontresina (Eastern Swiss Alps), other means of protection must be used – such as deflection or retention dams – as construction on ice-rich sediments can be very problematic. Experimental snow-supporting structures were built in 1997 in order to test different types of structures and their foundations, to develop specially adapted construction methods and to monitor the long-term behaviour of the structures in moderately creeping frozen ground with volumetric ice contents under 20%. Snow-nets were found to be the most suitable type of protection against avalanches in this type of permafrost terrain due to their deformability and because they are well adapted to rock fall. The structures do not improve slope stability but contribute towards maintaining permafrost as they delay snow melt by modifying the spatial and temporal distribution of the snow cover. The results of the project described have led to a better understanding of permafrost-related avalanche defence problems.