Geomorphology and sedimentary/biosedimentary structures of the intertidal environment along the coast of Kuwait,north-western Arabian Gulf

The coast of Kuwait can be divided into nine intertidal geomorphological subunits, of which four are found along the northern muddy shoreline and five along the southern sandy shoreline. In the north the coast is characterized by wide intertidal mudflats, bounded landward by an extensive coastal sabkha which is partly covered by sand drifts. The upper part of the intertidal environment is covered with a mixture of aeolian sands and muddy sediments of marine origin. A number of shallow tidal channels dissect the intertidal flats and small sand bars occur near the low water line. In contrast, the southern shore is characterized by relatively steep sandy beaches fronted by narrow to moderately wide rocky intertidal platforms which are partly covered by sand, bioherms, skeletal debris and algal mats. In some areas the rocky surface is dissected by numerous small gulleys and shallow channels. Multiple sand bars lying either parallel or diagonal to the shoreline are developed near the low water line. This southern intertidal environment is bounded landward by a sandy berm and a wave-cut cliff.Ripple marks are developed almost parallel to the shoreline, showing different flow directions. Energy levels are moderate to high along the southern shore, but low along the northern shore. In the south, waves induced by winds blowing mostly from the north-east and south-east form the dominant energy source, whereas tidal and wind-driven currents are the only tangible process acting along the northern shore.     

Coastal morphology and beach stability along Thiruvananthapuram,south-west coast of India

Shoreline changes are largely dependent on coastal morphology. South-west coast of India is a high energy coast characterised by monsoon high waves, steep beach face and medium-sized beach sand. Waves are generally from west and west south-west during rough monsoon season and from south-west during fair weather season. Shoreline change along this coast is studied with reference to coastal morphological features. Various morphological features, modifications and chronological positions of shoreline are analysed with the information derived from multidated satellite imageries, toposheets and GPS shoreline mapping along with extended field survey. Image processing and GIS techniques have been used for the analysis of data and presentation of results. Sediment accumulation on the leeward side of artificial structures such as harbour breakwaters and groynes is used as a sediment transport indicator. Artificial structures such as seawalls, groynes and harbour breakwaters modify morphology. Shoreline south of headlands/promontories and breakwaters are stable or accreting due to net northerly longshore sediment transport while erosion tendency is observed on the north side. Lateritic cliffs fronting the sea or with seasonal beach undergo slumping and cliff edge retreat as episodic events. Spits adjoining tidal inlets are prone to shoreline variations due to oscillations of inlet mouth. Interventions in the form of inlet stabilization and construction of coastal protection structures trigger erosion along adjoining coasts. Seawalls constructed along highly eroding coasts get damaged, whereas those constructed along monsoon berm crest with frontal beaches for protection against monsoon wave attack are retained. Fishing gaps within seawalls are areas of severe temporary erosion during rough monsoon season. Accretion or erosion accompanies construction of harbour breakwaters in a stable coastal plain. Close dependence of shoreline changes on morphology necessitates detailed understanding of impacts on morphology prior to introducing any intervention in the coastal zone.     

Nature and stability of atoll island shorelines: Gilbert Island chain,Kiribati, equatorial Pacific

Islands rimming Pacific atolls typically form narrow, low‐lying lands that are commonly perceived to be particularly vulnerable to global changes such as sea‐level rise. As these, low islands form the only habitable land for many island nations, understanding the character of shorelines, and the rates and controls that operate to bring about changes, is an issue of central importance. The purpose of this study is to unravel the characteristics of coastal change on atoll islands of the Gilbert Island chain of the equatorial Pacific nation of Kiribati, especially as they relate to autogenic shoreline processes and El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. Integration of field observations, differential global positioning system data, historical aerial photographs and ultra‐high resolution remote sensing images demonstrates the nature, spatial patterns and rates of change from 17 islands on Maiana and Aranuka atolls. The results illustrate that, between 2005 and 2009, ca 50% of the shorelines on these islands displayed a discernable shift in position; some shorelines were accretionary (at net rates up to ca 8 m year^?1) and others were erosional (up to ca 18 m year^?1). Long‐term net rates of change on Maiana between 1969 and 2009 were lower than short‐term net rates measured between 2005 and 2009. Both short‐term and long‐term observations illustrate some of the greatest change occur near terminations of the largest, north–south oriented islands, associated with longshore movement of coarse sand and gravel. Direct hits by tropical depressions and marked seasonality, factors interpreted as being essential in island growth and shoreline dynamics elsewhere, do not directly impact these equatorial atolls and can be eliminated as fundamental controls on shoreline dynamics. Similarly, observations over four years suggested that shoreline variability probably is not influenced directly by marked sea‐level change, although a recent increase in the rates of shoreline change could reflect instability related to the cumulative effect of a long‐term increase in the rate of sea‐level rise. Within this framework of global change, local anthropogenic effects, autogenic shoreline processes and El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐influenced wind and wave variability control many aspects of these dynamic shorelines. These results provide quantitative insights into the character and variability of rates of shoreline change, information essential for evaluating and mitigating the vulnerability of island nations such as Kiribati.     

Shoreline change rate estimation and its forecast: remote sensing,geographical information system and statistics-based approach

The present study indicates that coastal geomorphology is controlled by the natural processes and anthropogenic activities. The changes in shoreline positions of Udupi coast, western India, are investigated for a period of 98 years using multi-dated satellite images and topographic maps. The study area has been divided into four littoral cells and each cell into a number of transects at uniform intervals. Further, past shoreline positions have been demarcated and future positions are estimated for 12 and 22 years. The shoreline change rate has been estimated using statistical methods—end point rate, average of rates and linear regression—and cross-validated with correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error (RMSE) methods. Resultant changes from natural processes and human interventions have been inferred from the estimated values of the back-calculated errors. About 53 % of transects exhibit ±10 m RMSE values, indicating better agreement between the estimated and satellite-based shoreline positions, and the transects closer to the cell boundaries exhibit ~57 % uncertainties in shoreline change rate estimations. Based on the values of correlation coefficient and RMSE, the influence of natural processes and human interventions on shoreline changes have been calculated. The cells/transects dominated by natural processes record low RMSE values, whereas those influenced by human interventions show lower correlation coefficient and higher RMSE values. The present study manifests that the results of this study can be very useful in quantifying shoreline changes and in prediction of shoreline positions.     

三峡库区小溪隧道口危岩稳定性评价与防治

小溪隧道进口危岩位于重庆市涪陵区乌江西岸,岸坡陡峻。陡崖脚泥岩风化凹进形成崖腔,陡崖顶有阶梯状陡坎,在构造裂隙、软弱陡崖基座、卸荷裂隙带等因素的控制下,稳定性极差。作者采用地质分析和量化分析方法对危岩作了稳定性评价。危岩破坏形式有坠落、倾倒和滑塌3种。随着软弱基座差异性风化的进一步发展、崖腔进一步扩大、卸荷裂隙逐渐连续贯通,危岩体将失去稳定产生崩塌。采用支撑、锚固、拦石、排水、少量危石清除相结合的综合防治措施,是行之有效的。通过3个水文年的监测显示,本区工程在经历多个雨季后,每个监测点都是稳定的,危岩整治效果明显,防治措施起到了良好作用。     

Coastal changes along the coast of Vere, Jamaica over the past two hundred years: data from maps and air photographs

Analysis of air photographs and maps indicates complex patterns of shoreline changes along the south coast of Vere, Jamaica, between the mouths of the Rio Minho and Milk River. These include up to half a kilometre of shore-normal coastal recession between 1941 and 1991, the largest known shoreline change in Jamaica over the past 60 years. Previously, the coastline had been prograding seawards from a low cliff cut into the Rio Minho alluvial fan, in the process constructing a shore-parallel ridge and lagoon complex. The cliff itself is evidence of earlier coastal erosion. Maps published in 1804 and 1885 confirm the mobility of this coastline in historical times. They suggest that the more easterly complex of shore-parallel lagoons was constructed prior to about 1880, while the more recent, westerly beach ridges developed, at least partly, from progressive destruction of the lagoon complex, following a change in orientation of the Rio Minho mouth in the late 19th Century. Photographs of 1999 indicate the onset of accretion, probably resulting from the gradual onshore movement of massive quantities of sediment deposited off the Rio Minho mouth during the extreme flood event of 1986 and several lesser events in 1988 and the 1990s.     

Monitoring of the shoreline change using remote sensing and GIS: a case study of Al Hawasnah tidal inlet, Al Batinah coast, Sultanate of Oman

One of the most effective means of monitoring the cumulative effects of natural processes and human activities on the shoreline is to study the patterns of shoreline change over time. An attempt has been made to study the shoreline changes along Al Batinah, Sultanate of Oman, at the outlet of Wadi Al Hawasnah. The previous studies showed that Al Batinah coastline is generally stable except where coastal engineering structures like harbors, corniches, ports, and recharge dams are present. Remote sensing and GIS techniques are widely used in the coastal geomorphology because they provide the best sources to study the long-term shoreline changes. Rapid shoreline changes at the mouth of Wadi Al Hawasnah have been measured using proxy data derived mainly from satellite images from 2000 to 2005. The mouth of Wadi Al Hawasnah is now completely blocked after the construction of recharge dam at the upper stream of Wadi Al Hawasnah and Wadi Bani Umar in 1995. There has been no discharge to the sea after the construction of the dam. Furthermore, beach profiles of this area show erosion close to the south of the tidal inlet and accretion further south. The shorelines in the northwest of the tidal inlet remained stable.     

渤海湾西岸贝壳堤堆积与海陆相互作用*

渤海湾西岸淤泥质海岸已见两类砂体,滨外坝先形成于水下,而后随着海岸进积和在海洋动力作用下,逐渐出露于潮间带和陆地上; 另一种普遍出现的是具沿岸堤意义的贝壳堤,而且是在海岸进入弱侵蚀期即形成。研究发现,在海岸进积和海-陆相对稳定条件下,海岸线附近中潮坪-高潮坪受向岸风和波浪作用也可形成雏形贝壳堤砂体。目前研究区海岸上的贝壳堆积有3类,即:风暴潮堆积的沿岸堤型贝壳堤,主要堆积在中潮坪-高潮坪-滨海低平原上; 潮沟~潮汐河道型"贝壳堤",为潮汐河口湾顶或潮道外侧风暴贝壳堆积(自潮汐通道水下堆积延续到低地); 以及沿海低平原在大潮或风暴潮天气背景下出现的无序贝壳堆积。贝壳堤堆积既有风暴潮大浪瞬时、高能幕式堆积,又有大浪、向岸风综合作用下堆积的可能,贝壳测年及贝壳堤层序表明其形成是复杂的再堆积过程,不宜解释为海平面变化。在三角洲不均衡推进过程中,有可能形成不规则的海岸线,向岸风浪对不同地貌岸段的作用,可导致形成并非与现代海岸线平行的贝壳堤。贝壳堤术语的随意使用,已经造成海岸线变迁研究的简单化。严格使用沿岸堤的贝壳堤概念,可进一步划分三角洲叶瓣变迁,但是事件堆积必须剔除。将贝壳堤的研究与三角洲顶面泥炭测年相结合,可能更精确重塑海岸形成过程。     

Coastal geoindicators of environmental change in the humid tropics

The primary geoindicators appropriate for monitoring environmental changes in the humid tropics are transitory surface water levels, shoreline position, wetlands distribution, coral reefs, landforms, and sediment sequence and composition. Lateral zonations and temporal successions of vegetation also can be used as geoindicators of riverine and shoreline changes. All of these coastal geoindicators are sensitive to regional tectonic processes and anthropogenic alterations and they typically reflect significant changes in coastal conditions such as fluvial processes, coastal energy, water quality, relative sea level, and sediment supply. Where humid tropical coasts coincide with active tectonic margins, indicators of seismic activity are critical to understanding coastal changes associated with co-seismic subsidence or uplift, tsunamis, and liquefaction of coastal sediments. Coastal landforms and sedimentary deposits that record late Quaternary environmental changes include perched fluvial and marine terraces, delta-plain morphologies, crevasse-splay deposits, peats and other paleosols, beach ridges, mud capes, and mud volcanoes. Although these features and deposits typically reflect environmental changes spanning more than 100 years, they are relevant to modern processes, management of coastal lands and resources, and prediction of future conditions. In some regions of the humid tropics, large coastal areas are unaffected by hurricanes or typhoons. Nevertheless, these tropical coasts are vulnerable to other non-storm processes, such as El Niño events, tsunamis, and monsoons that increase water levels, and cause widespread flooding and beach erosion. The environmental and political significance of coastal geoindicators increases when they are integrated and applied to issues of human safety and health such as hazards mapping, risk assessment, and dispersion of contaminated sediments. However, to be relevant, those socio-environmental applications demand accurate predictions of future trends and rates of change.     

Control of sea-water intrusion by salt-water pumping: Coast of Oman

A shallow alluvial coastal aquifer in the Batinah area of Oman, with sea-water intrusion that extends several kilometres inland, has been studied experimentally, analytically and numerically. The water table is proved to have a trough caused by intensive pumping from a fresh groundwater zone and evaporation from the saline phreatic surface. Resistivity traverses perpendicular to the shoreline indicated no fresh groundwater recharge into the sea. Using an analytical Dupuit-Forchheimer model, developed for the plain part of the catchment, explicit expressions for the water table, sharp interface location and stored volume of fresh water are obtained. It is shown that by the pumping of salt water from the intruded part of the aquifer, this intrusion can be mitigated. Different catchment sizes, intensities of fresh groundwater pumping, evaporation rates, water densities, sea level, incident fresh water level in the mountains and hydraulic conductivity are considered. SUTRA code is applied to a hypothetical case of a leaky aquifer with line sinks modeling fresh water withdrawal and evaporation. The numerical code also shows that pumping of saline water can pull the dispersion zone back to the shoreline.     

GIS Modelling of Sea-Level Rise Induced Shoreline Changes Inside Coastal Re-Rntrants – Two Examples from Southeastern Australia

Shoreline recession as a result of rising sea level has been recognised as a potential near-future hazard by a number of countries. However, the collection of high spatial resolution data, in particular elevation data, is often too costly and time consuming to be applied routinely for a detailed assessment of the potential physical and economic impacts of this hazard. Based on work undertaken for the Dutch Wadden Sea, a GIS-based coastal-behaviour model has been developed to formulate simple algorithms for simulating the potential physical impacts of rising sea level on the coastal environment, focussing here on coastal re-entrants. The GIS model developed is suitable for providing first estimates of potential shoreline change, based on readily available information. To enhance the suitability of such initial assessment, the GIS model output, that is the rate of shoreline change, has been analysed in greater detail using a spreadsheet-based hazard probability model. The advantage of using a combination of both models is a rapid assessment of the probability of shoreline changes, instead of a single impact zone, as modelled with the GIS. The hazard probability rates received from the spreadsheet model are returned to the GIS to be displayed as a grading of risk instead of a single impact zone. The model introduced in this paper has been applied to two field sites in southeastern Australia to model regional variations in shoreline response to rising sea level.     

塔中志留系下沥青砂岩段风暴沉积的砂体研究

塔中志留系下沥青砂岩段沉积砂体的类型有滨岸砂、浅海砂坝和陆棚砂3种类型，正常条件下沉积的滨岸砂体具低角度交错层理和少量波痕，呈现出由泥岩-粉砂岩-细砂岩-中细砂岩的反韵律变化特征。风暴作用下，滨岸砂体沉积呈正韵律，多由泥砾向上变化为粉、细砂，生物建造较少，具多方向的低角度板状交错层理、丘状层理。正常条件下沉积的陆棚砂体、浅海砂坝砂体岩性较均一，见交错层理，粒级变化不甚明显，多为粉、细砂岩，以反韵律为主。风暴作用下，砂体底部多具撕裂状泥砾，向上呈正韵律粒序演化，并具侵蚀面、槽状交错层理与丘状层理等特征。风暴作用下的滨岸沉积单砂体相对较厚，一般厚6～13m，宽约数十米，浅海砂坝和陆棚砂的单层砂体相对较薄，厚约3～8m，砂体规模较正常条件下沉积的砂体规模增大。此3类砂体在空间展布上极具规律性，垂向上砂体类型由下而上为滨岸砂-浅海砂坝-陆棚砂的交替演化序列；平面上由海洋向陆地方向砂体类型依次为陆棚砂体-浅海砂坝-滨岸砂体。     

Mapping erosion risk under different scenarios of climate change for Aveiro coast, Portugal

Several coastal zones are facing shoreline retreat problems, losing territory due to energetic sea actions, negative sediment transport balances and climate change phenomena. To deal with this problem, efficient tools are necessary to help decision-makers choose the right procedures to follow. These tools should assess, estimate and project scenarios of coastal evolution in a medium-to-long-term perspective. To perform reliable projections, as many variables as possible should be analysed, and the impact of each of these variables on the shoreline evolution should be understood. This study aimed to analyse three climate change phenomena that are considered the most important in a Portuguese west coast stretch (at Aveiro region). The considered phenomena are the wave height increasing due to storms, the wave direction changes and the sea level rise. A shoreline evolution numerical model, long-term configuration, developed to support coastal zone planning and management in relation to erosion problems was applied. This work defined a methodology for classification of risk areas, considering the uncertainty associated with different wave climate sequences on simulations. As a result, different risk maps according to considered climate change effects were obtained, defining areas of high, medium and low risk of territory loss due to erosion. A generalized erosion tendency and shoreline retreat were observed, particularly in the downdrift side of groins. The sea water level rise showed lower impacts in the shoreline evolution than wave direction changes, or wave height increasing, which presents the highest impact.     

Impact of Armored Shorelines on Shore-Zone Fish Density in a Mid-Atlantic,USA, Estuary: Modulation by Hypoxia and Temperature

Anthropogenic modifications of estuarine environments, including shoreline hardening and corresponding alteration of water quality, are accelerating worldwide as human population increases in coastal regions. Estuarine fish species inhabiting temperate ecosystems are adapted to extreme variations in environmental conditions including water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen across seasonal, daily, and hourly time scales. The present research utilized quantitative sampling to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of shore-zone estuarine fish species in association with four unique shoreline types across a range of water temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions. Fish were collected from the intertidal and shallow subtidal region of four shoreline types, Spartina alterniflora marsh, Phragmites australis marsh, riprap, and bulkhead, in the summer and fall of 2009 and 2010. Analyses were performed to (1) compare mean fish density among shoreline types across all water conditions and (2) explore relationships of the complete fish assemblage, three functional species groupings, and two fish species (Fundulus heteroclitus and Menidia menidia) to unique shoreline/water conditions. Significantly greater mean fish densities were found along S. alterniflora shorelines than armored shorelines. Several metrics including fish density, species richness, and occurrence rates suggest S. alterniflora shorelines may serve as a form of refuge habitat during periods of low dissolved oxygen and high temperatures for various species, particularly littoral-demersal species including F. heteroclitus. Potential mechanisms that could contribute to a habitat providing refuge during adverse water quality conditions include tempering of the adverse condition (decreased temperatures, increased dissolved oxygen), predation protection, and increased foraging opportunities.     

Historical shoreline trend analysis and drivers of coastal change along the Ravenna coast,NE Adriatic

One of the most important aspects of coastal zone management is the analysis of shoreline dynamics. Over the last years, beaches of the Ravenna coast (NE Italy) experienced large modifications, in some places narrowing or even being completely lost, thus threatening tourism, coastal assets and nature. Coastal erosion has direct consequences for Ravenna tourist-based economy, which largely depends on the attraction provided by sandy beaches. In this study, long-term (>?50 years) coastal analysis was used to identify the sectors along the coast where the shoreline position has changed, either advancing or retreating. Shoreline changes were measured on GIS environment by means of Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) extension. Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) strategies were employed to examine shoreline variability and reveal erosional/accretional trends. The results show that significant shoreline changes affected the entire coastal region, with most of the study area under retreat, mainly in the most valuable tourist assets of the littoral. The effects were found to be worsened by impacts of land subsidence, presence of harbor infrastructure and deficit in sediment budget. A simple shoreline classification was performed over the DSAS results and cross-checked with local knowledge of the area. The measurement of erosion or accretion rates in each studied segment is found to be useful for land use planning and coastal management plans, especially regarding the prediction of future shoreline positions. Especially important is the potential of the classification to identify areas of significant position change, with current and future implications for the design of sustainable shoreline management and mitigation measures.     

Ecotone displacement trends on a highly dynamic barrier Island: Hog Island,Virginia

Aerial photographs, recording 12 positions of the shoreline and vegetation line over a 50-yr period, were used to investigate long-term ecotone displacement trends and the relationship between ecotone displacement and shoreline migration on Hog Island, Virginia. A robust regression modeling technique, originally developed for shoreline trend detection analyses, enabled examination of the direction, magnitude, and timing of changes in long-term ecotone displacement. Measurements were obtained at 277 shore normal transects spaced 50 m apart. The results show that long-term trends in ecotone displacement and shoreline movement are nonlinear for over three-fourths of the Hog Island coast. On average, the shoreline and vegetation line experienced reversals in 1972 and 1974, respectively. Rarely did the ecotones and shorelines move in tandem or synchronously. Concavity tests indicate that most of the shoreline and ecotone are currently moving seaward and the distance between the shoreline and vegetation line is decreasing through time. Evidence exists for a decennial time lag between the reversal of the shoreline and the ecotone and vice versa. The ecotone and shoreline trends apparently correspond to tidal inlet dynamics, individual storm events, storm climate, inherited topography (e.g., dune), and vegetation type.     

Simulation of shoreline change using AIRSAR and POLSAR C-band data

This paper presents a new approach for modeling shoreline change due to wave energy effects from remotely sensed data. The airborne AIRSAR and POLSAR data were employed to extract wave spectra information and integrate them with historical remotely sensed data such as aerial photography data to model the rate of change of the shoreline. A partial differential equation (PDE) of the wave conversion model was applied to investigate the wave refraction patterns. The volume of sediment transport at several locations was estimated based on the wave refraction patterns. The shoreline change model developed was designed to cover a 14-km stretch of shoreline of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia. The model utilized data from aerial photographs, AIRSAR, POLSAR, ERS-2, and in situ wave data. The results show that the shoreline rate of change modeled from the quasi-linear wave spectra algorithm has a significant relationship with one estimated from historical vector layers of aerial photography, AIRSAR, and POLSAR data. With the quasi-linear algorithm, an error of ±0.18 m/year in shoreline rate of change determination was obtained with C _vv band.     

Influence of sedimentary setting on the use of magnetic susceptibility: examples from the Devonian of Belgium

Bulk magnetic susceptibility measurements on sedimentological samples from all geological periods have been used widely in the last two decades for correlations and as a proxy for sea‐level variations. This paper explores the link between magnetic susceptibility, depositional setting and environmental parameters. These environmental parameters include distal–proximal transects, microfacies successions and fourth‐order trends on different carbonate platform types (platform, ramp, carbonate mound or atoll) during different Devonian stages (Eifelian, Givetian and Frasnian). Average magnetic susceptibility values over a distal–proximal‐trending facies succession vary markedly with depositional setting. On carbonate platforms, average magnetic susceptibility generally increases towards the top of shallowing‐upward sequences. On a distal–proximal transect, average magnetic susceptibility is intermediate for the deepest facies, decreases for the reef belts and increases to a maximum in the back‐reef zone. In ramps and atolls, magnetic susceptibility trends clearly differ; average magnetic susceptibility generally decreases towards the top of shallowing‐upward sequences and is highest in the deepest facies. The strong relationship between magnetic susceptibility, facies and sequences implies a strong environmental influence. However, the different responses in the different platform types suggest that sea‐level changes leading to variation in detrital input is not the only parameter controlling average magnetic susceptibility values. Other primary or secondary processes also probably influenced magnetic mineral distribution. Primary processes such as carbonate production and water agitation during deposition are probably key factors. When carbonate production is high, the proportion of magnetic minerals is diluted and the magnetic susceptibility signal decreases. High water agitation during deposition will also selectively remove magnetic minerals and will lead to low average magnetic susceptibility values. These parameters explain the lowest values observed on the reef platform, inner ramp and atoll crown, which are all in areas characterized by higher carbonate production and greater water agitation during deposition. The lowest values observed in the lagoon inside the atoll crown can be related to detrital isolation by the atoll crown. However, other parameters such as biogenic magnetite production or diagenesis can also influence the magnetic signal. Diagenesis can change magnetism by creating or destroying magnetic minerals. However, the influence of diagenesis probably is linked strongly to the primary facies (permeability, amount of clay or organic matter) and probably enhanced the primary signal. The complexity of the signal gives rise to correlation problems between different depositional settings. Thus, while magnetic susceptibility has the potential to be an important correlation tool, the results of this investigation indicate that it cannot be used without consideration of sedimentary processes and depositional environments and without strong biostratigraphical control.     

径向基神经网络模型在杭州湾北岸岸线变化中的应用

基于杭州湾北岸龙泉—南竹港弧形岸段实测岸滩断面与长江入海控制站大通站年输沙量资料,对杭州湾北岸岸线的变化及其趋势进行探讨。研究结果表明：受长江入海泥沙减少以及热带气旋和人类活动作用等影响,近10年来杭州湾北岸岸滩处于侵蚀状态。灰色关联分析进一步揭示,杭州湾北岸不同等深线的进退对长江入海泥沙减少的响应在时间尺度上有一定的滞后。同时,不同等深线的进退亦展现较强的相关性特征。鉴于此,利用大通年输沙量和不同等深线进退的耦合关系,进一步构建了基于长江入海泥沙和杭州湾北岸等深线变化的径向基神经网络岸线预报模型,其中模型输入向量为当年大通站年输沙量和杭州湾北岸-3m、-5m、-8m等深线距离大堤的位置,输出向量为次年0m岸线距离大堤的位置。经检验,构建的径向基神经网络岸线预报模型误差小于20%,可用以预报杭州湾北岸岸线的动态变化。     

Potential impacts of extreme storm surges on a low-lying densely populated coastline: the case of Dunkirk area, Northern France

Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.