A two degree-of-freedom earthquake model with static/dynamic friction

Can a simple multi-block-spring model with total symmetry make interesting predictions for fault behaviour? Our model consists of a symmetric, slowly driven, two degree-of-freedom block-spring system with static/dynamic friction. The simple friction law and slow driving rate allow the state of this fourth order system to be described between slip events by a single variable, the difference in the stretch of the driving springs. This stretch difference measures the locked-in stress and is closely related to fault stress inhomogeneity. In general,smoothing is not observed. A spatially homogeneous stress state is found to almost always be unstable, in that the system tends toward an inhomogeneous state after many slip events. The system evolves either to a cycle that alternates between two types of earthquakes, or to a cycle with repeating but identical asymmetric earthquakes. One type of alternating earthquake solution is structurally unstable, which implies a great sensitivity to model perturbations. For this simple model, spatial asymmetry necessarily occurs, despite the symmetry in the model, thus suggesting that spatial structure in seismicity patterns may be a consequence of earthquake dynamics, not just fault heterogeneity.     

Granular Controls on Periodicity of Stick-Slip Events: Kinematics and Force-Chains in an Experimental Fault

It is a long-standing question whether granular fault material such as gouge plays a major role in controlling fault dynamics such as seismicity and slip-periodicity. In both natural and experimental faults, granular materials resist shear and accommodate strain via interparticle friction, fracture toughness, fluid pressure, dilation, and interparticle rearrangements. Here, we isolate the effects of particle rearrangements on granular deformation through laboratory experiments. Within a sheared photoelastic granular aggregate at constant volume, we simultaneously visualize both particle-scale kinematics and interparticle forces, the latter taking the form of force-chains. We observe stick-slip deformation and associated force drops during an overall strengthening of the shear zone. This strengthening regime provides insight into granular rheology and conditions of stick-slip periodicity, and may be qualitatively analogous to slip that accompanies longer term interseismic strengthening of natural faults. Of particular note is the observation that increasing the packing density increases the stiffness of the granular aggregate and decreases the damping (increases time-scales) during slip events. At relatively loose packing density, the slip displacements during the events follow an approximately power-law distribution, as opposed to an exponential distribution at higher packing density. The system exhibits switching between quasi-periodic and aperiodic slip behavior at all packing densities. Higher packing densities favor quasi-periodic behavior, with a longer time interval between aperiodic events than between quasi-periodic events. This difference in the time-scale of aperiodic stick-slip deformation is reflected in both the kinematics of interparticle slip and the force-chain dynamics: all major force-chain reorganizations are associated with aperiodic events. Our experiments conceptually link observations of natural fault dynamics with current models for granular stick-slip dynamics. We find that the stick-slip dynamics are consistent with a driven harmonic oscillator model with damping provided by an effective viscosity, and that shear-transformation-zone, jamming, and crackling noise theories provide insight into the effective stiffness and patterns of shear localization during deformation.     

COSMOGENIC NUCLIDES EXPOSURE DATING FOR BEDROCK FAULT SCARP: RECONSTRUCTING THE PALEOEARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE

The bedrock scarps are believed to have recorded the continuous information on displacement accumulation and sequence of large earthquakes. The occurrence timing of large earthquakes is believed to be correlated positively with the exposure duration of bedrock fault surfaces. Accordingly, cosmogenic nuclides concentration determined for the bedrock footwall can offer their times, ages, and slip over long time. In general, multiple sites of fault scarps along one or even more faults are selected to carry out cosmogenic nuclide dating in an attempt to derive the temporal and spatial pattern of fault activity. This may contribute to explore whether earthquake occurrence exhibits any regularity and predict the timing and magnitude of strong earthquakes in the near future. Cosmogenic nuclide ³⁶ Cl dating is widely applied to fault scarp of limestone, and the height of fault scarp can reach as high as 15~20m. It is strongly suggested to make sure the bedrock scarp is exhumed by large earthquake events instead of geomorphic processes, based on field observation, and data acquired by terrestrial LiDAR and ground penetration radar (GPR). In addition, it is better for the fault surface to be straight and fresh with striations indicating recent fault movement. A series of bedrock samples are collected from the footwall in parallel to the direction of fault movement both above and below the colluvium, and each of them is~15cm long,~10cm wide, and~3cm thick. The concentrations of both cosmogenic nuclide ³⁶ Cl and REE-Y determined from these samples vary with the heights in parallel to fault scarps. Accordingly, we identify the times of past large earthquakes, model the profile of ³⁶ Cl concentration to seek the most realistic one, and determine the ages and slip of each earthquake event with the errors. In general, the errors for the numbers, ages, and slips of past earthquake events are ±1-2, no more than ±0.5-1.0ka, and ±0.25m, respectively.     

Slip Sequences in Laboratory Experiments Resulting from Inhomogeneous Shear as Analogs of Earthquakes Associated with a Fault Edge

Faults are intrinsically heterogeneous with common occurrences of jogs, edges and steps. We therefore explore experimentally and theoretically how fault edges may affect earthquake and slip dynamics. In the presented experiments and accompanying theoretical model, shear loads are applied to the edge of one of two flat blocks in frictional contact that form a fault analog. We show that slip occurs via a sequence of rapid rupture events that initiate from the loading edge and are arrested after propagating a finite distance. Each successive event extends the slip size, transfers the applied shear across the block, and causes progressively larger changes of the contact area along the contact surface. Resulting from this sequence of events, a hard asperity is dynamically formed near the loaded edge. The contact area beyond this asperity is largely reduced. These sequences of rapid events culminate in slow slip events that precede a major, unarrested slip event along the entire contact surface. We suggest that the 1998 M5.0 Sendai and 1995 off-Etorofu earthquake sequences may correspond to this scenario. Our work demonstrates, qualitatively, how the simplest deviation from uniform shear loading may significantly affect both earthquake nucleation processes and how fault complexity develops.     

基于非结构化网格的边界积分方程方法的断层自发破裂模拟

地震自发破裂模拟是震源动力学研究的重要内容,了解复杂的断层动力学破裂过程对深入认识震源特征和解释运动学反演结果具有重要意义.基于边界积分方程方法的破裂模拟已经被广泛使用,大多采用的是平面断层模型的结构化网格划分.由于实际的断层往往具有较为复杂的几何特征,为了更为灵活地刻画断层几何复杂性,我们建立断层模型的三角形网格离散方案,通过精确的解析解形式来计算断层各个单元之间的应力格林函数,联立滑动弱化摩擦准则和非奇异边界积分方程,对断层的自发破裂过程进行了模拟.在简单的平面断层模型下,将计算结果与前人的结果进行了对比,验证了方法的正确性与有效性.对于几种常见的复杂断层模型,例如弯折、阶跃、含障碍体断层等,我们模拟了其破裂过程并对计算结果进行了比较与分析.模拟结果表明,非结构化网格划分的边界积分方程方法能够很好地模拟平面矩形断层或由其组成的规则断层,同时也能成功地模拟具有复杂几何形状的不规则断层上的动力学破裂过程.本研究的结果显示了边界积分方程方法在模拟复杂断层系统的动力学破裂问题上具有较广阔的应用前景.     

交叉断层的交替活动与块体运动的实验研究

通过物理模拟证明交叉断层上会交替地发生失稳事件。两条交叉的断层在活动中既相互促进 ,又相互制约 ,即一条断层既可能使另一条断层发生闭锁而积累应变 ,又可能触发其错动。每条断层的位移速率、总位移量以及失稳事件数与断层方向和主压应力轴的夹角有关。各断层段的位移有时体现为断层围限块体的平移运动 ,而有时则体现为块体的旋转运动。发生在不同部位的失稳事件影响范围不同 ,在正应力较大的断层上失稳事件影响范围大。涉及交叉断层的较大失稳事件发生前常出现前兆性小事件。交叉断层的交替活动实际上由变形场中块体的运动所控制     

平行走滑断层相互作用的粘弹模型和减震作用

研究了二维粘弹性介质中平行走滑断层的相互力学作用及其地震活动性的影响。当一条断层发生滑动,将导致平行断层面上剪切应力减小,因此,可能推迟平行断层发生滑动,推迟时间在几年至几百年的范围内,这取决于发生滑动的断层与平行断层之间的距离,以及平行断层自身应力积累孕育地震过程经历的时间。     

1966年邢台强震群震前、 同震和震后断层运动特征分析

在1966年3月邢台强震群水准观测基础上, 本文首先对同震位移和数值模拟结果进行了对比, 认为邢台强震群发震断层浅层是牛家桥阳断层和永福庄断层, 深部发震断层是倾向北西的北东向断层; 然后以区域水准观测为约束, 通过反演给出了邢台强震群震前断层无震滑移、 同震断层位错和震后断层余滑空间分布。 结果表明, 震前显著无震滑移主要发生在3月8日6.8级前震的发震断层上, 而3月20日宁晋7.2级和6.7级地震发震断层深部同震位错相对弱的断层段, 震前也存在较为明显的无震滑移; 震后断层余滑主要分布在束鹿凹陷西侧的牛家桥阳断层。 从邢台强震群过程中断层运动时空演化特征可以看出, 强震破裂成核过程中震前断层无震滑移既可能发生于前震发震断层, 也可能发生于主震发震断层, 震后断层位移空间分布与同震位错具有互补性; 而震前断层无震滑移是否为有关震前前兆的真正原因, 是值得进一步深入研究的问题。     

Theoretical and quantitative analyses of the fault slip rate uncertainties from single event and erosion of the accumulated offset

Fault slip rate is one of the most important subjects in active tectonics research, which reveals the activity and seismic potential of a fault. Due to the improvement of dating precision with the development of dating methods, Holocene geological markers, even the young markers of thousands or hundreds of years old, are widely used in fault slip rate calculation. Usually, uncertainties from a single event and erosion of the accumulated offsets are involved in fault slip rate determination. Two types of uncertainties are related to a single event; the first is the time elapsed since the latest (the most recent) event; the second is the period since the formation of the geological marker to the occurrence of the first event. High‐slip‐rate faults are more sensitive to these uncertainties than low‐slip‐rate faults. In this study, we studied quantitatively the effects of a single event on fault slip rate following the three classic earthquake models: the characteristic earthquake, uniform slip and variable slip models. We suggest that the erosion of the accumulated offset–lateral erosion on a strike‐slip fault, should also be considered in fault slip estimation. Therefore, we propose a differential method to obtain a reliable fault slip rate. In the differential method, the slip rate is the ratio of offset differentials and corresponding age differentials between the older and younger terraces along strike‐slip faults. This kind of differential method could avoid the uncertainties from the first and latest events, as well as that from the lateral erosion. By applying the differential method, we got the revised slip rates of ∼5–10 mm/year on the Altyn Tagh and Kunlun faults. These low slip rates could fit previous geodetic and geological fault slip rates and shortening rates as well as the millennial recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes along the major segments of these faults.     

Particle Dynamics Simulations of Rate- and State-dependent Frictional Sliding of Granular Fault Gouge

— Recent simulations using the particle dynamics method (PDM) have successfully captured many features of natural faults zones as illuminated in laboratory studies. However, 2-D simulations conducted on idealized assemblages of particles using simple elastic-frictional contact laws, yield friction values considerably lower than natural materials, and lack time- and velocity-dependent changes in strength that influence dynamic fault slip. Here, preliminary results of new PDM simulations are described, in which particle motions are restricted as a proxy for particle interlocking and out of plane contacts, and time-dependent contact healing is introduced to capture temporal strengthening of granular assemblages. Frictional strength is increased, and in the absence of interparticle rolling, can attain values observed in the laboratory. The resulting mechanical behavior is qualitatively similar to that described by empirically-based rate-state friction laws, providing new physical insight into the discrete mechanics of natural faults.     

2018年阿拉斯加湾MW7.9地震震源复杂性

2018年1月23日,在美国阿拉斯加湾海域发生了一次M_W7.9地震.震源机制解表明这次地震以走滑为主,可能发生在近东西向或南北向的陡倾角断层上,早期余震并非线型展布.我们利用视震源时间函数分析确定了此次地震的总体破裂方向,并结合余震的空间展布特征构建了相互交叉的双断层模型,进而通过联合反演远场P波和SH波数据获得了此次地震的时空破裂过程.视震源时间函数分析表明总体破裂方向既非东西也非南北,而且反演结果表明,两个断层上都发生了错动,总体破裂时间~50 s,释放标量地震矩~8.11×10²⁰ Nm.震源时间函数表现出多事件特征,且两个断层破裂的时间过程也不相同.破裂首先在南北向断层的南端开始,很快触发了东西向断层,最后终止于南北向断层的北端.每个断层都具有相当的时空复杂性,位错分布很不均匀.东西向断层具有三个凹凸体,一个位于震源附近,其他两个位于断层两端.南北向断层有两个凹凸体,均位于断层北段,最大滑动量~5.0 m就出现在这里.发生最大位错的南北向断层延伸至阿拉斯加海沟,增加了触发阿拉斯加海沟其他断层发生破裂的可能性.     

Seismotectonics of the Median Tectonic Line in southwest Japan: Implications for coupling among major fault systems

The relationship between the slip activity and occurrence of historical earthquakes along the Median Tectonic Line (MTL), together with that of the fault systems extending eastward has been examined. The MTL is divided into three segments, each containing diagnostic active faults. No historical earthquakes have been recorded along the central segment, although the segment has faster Quaternary slip rates compared with the other segments that have generated historical earthquakes. This discrepancy between earthquake generation and slip rate can be explained by a microplate model of southwest Japan. The microplate model also provides spatial and temporal coupling of slip on adjacent fault systems. In the context of this model, slip on adjacent faults reduces the normal stress on the MTL. Historical data and paleoseismic evidence indicate that slip on this segment occurs without significant strong ground motion. We interpret this as indicating anomalously slow seismic slip or aseismic slip. Slip on the central segment of the MTL creates transpressional regions at the eastern and western segments where historical earthquakes were recorded. Alternatively, the earthquakes at the eastern and western segments were triggered and concentrated shear stress at the edge of the segments resulted in postseismic slip along the central segment. The sequence of historical events suggests that the MTL characteristically does not produce great earthquakes. The microplate model also provides a tectonic framework for coupling of events among the MTL, the adjacent fault systems and the Nankai trough.     

Seismicity simulation with a rate- and state-dependent friction law

The dynamic motions and stabilities of a single-degree-of-freedom elastic system controlled by different friction laws are compared. The system consists of a sliding block connected to an elastic spring, driven at a constant velocity. The friction laws are a laboratory-inferred friction law called the rate-and-state-dependent friction law, proposed by Dieterich and Ruina, and a simple friction law described by dynamic and static frictions. We further extend the solution to a one-dimensional mass-spring model which is an analog of a fault controlled by the rate-and-state-dependent friction law. This model predicts non uniform slip and stress drop along the rupture length of a heterogeneous fault. This result is very different from some earlier modelings based on the simple friction law and a slip weakening friction law. In those earlier modelings the stress and slip functions become smoother with time along the length of the fault rupture, owing to the interactions between fault segments during slip. Because of this smoothing process the number of small events will decrease with time, and the universilly observed stationary magnitude-frequency relation cannot be explained. The interaction between a fault segment and its neighboring segments can be measured when the post-slip stress on this segment is compared with the stress on an identical segment (represented by a block in this modeling) without neighboring segments. If the post-slip stress of the former is much higher than that of the latter, strong interaction exists; if the two are close, only weak interaction exists. The interaction is determined by the relative motion between fault segments and the time duration of interaction. Our new modeling with the rate-and-state-dependent friction law appears to show no such smoothing effect and provides a physical mechanism for the roughening process in the difference between the fault strength and stress that is necessary to explain the observed stationary magnitude-frequency relation. The noninstantaneous healing predicted by the rate-and-state-dependent friction law may be repsonsible for the recurring nonuniform slip and stress drop, and may be explained by the reduction of interaction among fault segments due to the low frictional strength during the fault stopping. The very low friction during slip stopping allows much longer times than does the higher friction due to instantaneous healing for the fault segments to adjust their motions from an upper-limit slip velocity to almost rest. According to newton's second law, a process with fixed masses and constant velocity changes involves low forces and weak interactions if it is accomplished in a long time period, and vice versa. Our modeling also indicates that the existence of strong patches with higher effective stress on a fault is needed for the occurrence of major events. The creeping section of a fault, such as the one along the San Andreas fault in central California, on the other hand, can be simulated with the rate-and-state-dependent friction law by certain model parameters, which, however, must not include strong patches. In this case small earthquakes and aseismic creep relieve the accumulating strain without any large events.     

基于Chester-Higgs模型探讨摩擦生热对断层演化进程的影响

速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律是本文采用的重要定律。结合Chester-Higgs摩擦模型和McKenzie-Brune摩擦生热模型,在一维弹簧-滑块-断层近似模型下,利用四阶变步长的Dormand-Prince算法,研究探讨了断层摩擦生热对断层演化的影响。结果表明:与忽略温度影响的情形相比,摩擦生热造成的温度上升可导致断层滑移时刻的略微提前,并伴随着摩擦系数和状态变量的下降,同时也使得断层的滑移量和应力降略有减小,而滑移速率有所增大;另外,在考虑温度影响时,有效正应力和临界滑移距离也会影响断层的演化过程,断层上的有效正应力越大,断层失稳时刻越提前,温度上升越明显;断层的临界滑移距离越大,断层失稳时刻则越迟,温度上升越显著,但当临界滑移距离超过5 cm时,具有不同临界滑移距离的断层,失稳时的温度则基本保持一致。      

Dynamic faulting under rate-dependent friction

We discuss the effects of rate-dependent friction on the propagation of seismic rupture on active faults. Several physicists using Burridge and Knopoff's box and spring model of faulting have proposed that fault complexity may arise from the spontaneous development of a self-similar stress distribution on the fault plane. If this model proves to be correct, it has important consequences for the origin of the complexity of seismic sources. In order to test these ideas on a more realistic earthquake model, we developed a new boundary integral equation method for studying rupture propagation along an antiplane fault in the presence of nonlinear rate-dependent friction. We study rupture dynamics of models with single and twin asperities. In our models, asperities are places on the fault with a higher value of prestress. Othewise all fault parameters are homogeneous. We show that for models with such asperities, a slip velocity weakening friction leads to the propagation of supersonic healing phases and to the spontaneous arrest of fracture if the prestress outside the asperities is low enough. For models with asperities, we can also observe narrow slip velocity pulses, qualitatively similar to the so-called Heaton pulses observed in some earthquake accelerograms. We also observe a complex distribution of stress after the rupture that depends on details of the initial distribution of asperities and on the details of the friction law.     

The Role of Heterogeneities as a Tuning Parameter of Earthquake Dynamics

We investigate the influence of spatial heterogeneities on various aspects of brittle failure and seismicity in a model of a large strike-slip fault. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction laws, creep with depth-dependent coefficients, and 3-D elastic stress transfer. The dynamic rupture is approximated on a continuous time scale using a finite stress propagation velocity (quasidynamic model). The model produces a brittle-ductile transition at a depth of about 12.5 km, realistic hypocenter distributions, and other features of seismicity compatible with observations. Previous work suggested that the range of size scales in the distribution of strength-stress heterogeneities acts as a tuning parameter of the dynamics. Here we test this hypothesis by performing a systematic parameter-space study with different forms of heterogeneities. In particular, we analyze spatial heterogeneities that can be tuned by a single parameter in two distributions: (1) high stress drop barriers in near-vertical directions and (2) spatial heterogeneities with fractal properties and variable fractal dimension. The results indicate that the first form of heterogeneities provides an effective means of tuning the behavior while the second does not. In relatively homogeneous cases, the fault self-organizes to large-scale patches and big events are associated with inward failure of individual patches and sequential failures of different patches. The frequency-size event statistics in such cases are compatible with the characteristic earthquake distribution and large events are quasi-periodic in time. In strongly heterogeneous or near-critical cases, the rupture histories are highly discontinuous and consist of complex migration patterns of slip on the fault. In such cases, the frequency-size and temporal statistics follow approximately power-law relations.on leave from CNRS Rennes, France     

近断层应力变化快速计算方法及对强余震空间分布的指示意义:以M_w7.9汶川地震为例

构造地震一般由断层摩擦失稳所致.断层内部及周边所累积的剪切形变则通过同震滑动位移得到局部释放.因此,震后断层内部及近断层周边的静态剪切应力变化量的空间分布可通过断层面上的滑动位移分布计算得到.本文采用傅氏变换方法(FTM)计算单一有限断层同震滑移场所形成的静态剪切应力变化分布,近断层两侧的应力变化计算可由波数域内应力近似算法获得.结果表明,FTM快速有效、易于实现,有效地避免了常规应力计算中奇异值的出现.以2008年Mw7.9中国汶川大地震为例,采用前人所得有限断层滑动位移模型,得到了断层面和近断层周边准3D剪切应力分布解,并同主震后中强余震的空间分布特征作了比较.结果表明,大部分的中强余震震源位置处于剪切应力变化值为正的区域,由同震位移所产生的局部应力降峰值和均值大小同应力变化的正值大致相当,从而表明了快速且有效地计算断层内部及近断层附近的应力变化分布可以为主震后强余震发生的潜在区域提供指示意义.需要强调的是,应力变化空间分布特征的获取强烈地依赖于有限断层滑移模型解.有关滑动位移反演解的多解性对应力变化计算结果的影响,本文作了必要的讨论.     

Similarities between strike-slip faults at different scales and a simple age determining method for active faults

Abstract Several differently scaled strike‐slip faults were examined. The faults shared many geometric features, such as secondary fractures and linkage structures (damage zones). Differences in fault style were not related to specific scale ranges. However, it was recognized that differences in style may occur in different tectonic settings (e.g. dilational/contractional relays or wall/linkage/tip zones), different locations along the master fault or different fault evolution stages. Fractal dimensions were compared for two faults (Gozo and San Andreas), which supports the idea of self‐similarity. Fractal dimensions for traces of faults and fractures of damage zones were higher (D ～1.35) than for the main fault traces (D ～1.005) because of increased complexity due to secondary faults and fractures. Based on the statistical analysis of another fault evolution study, single event movements in earthquake faults typically have a maximum earthquake slip : rupture length ratio of approximately 10^?4, although this has only been established for large earthquake faults because of limited data. Most geological faults have a much higher maximum cumulative displacement : fault length ratio; that is, approximately 10^?2 to 10^?1 (e.g. Gozo, ～10^?2; San Andreas, ～10^?1). The final cumulative displacement on a fault is produced by accumulation of slip along ruptures. Hence, using the available information from earthquake faults, such as earthquake slip, recurrence interval, maximum cumulative displacement and fault length, the approximate age of active faults can be estimated. The lower limit of estimated active fault age is expressed with maximum cumulative displacement, earthquake slip and recurrence interval as T ? (d_max /u) · I(M).     

Internal structures and high-velocity frictional properties of a bedding-parallel carbonate fault at Xiaojiaqiao outcrop activated by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper reports internal structures of a bedding-parallel fault in Permian limestone at Xiaojiaqiao outcrop that was moved by about 0.5 m during the 2008 M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The fault is located about 3 km to the south from the middle part of Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, a major fault in the Longmenshan fault system that was moved during the earthquake. The outcrop is also located at Anxian transfer zone between the northern and central segments of Yingxiu-Beichuan fault where fault system is complex. Thus the fault is an example of subsidiary faults activated by Wenchuan earthquake. The fault has a strike of 243° or N63°E and a dip of 38°NW and is nearly optimally oriented for thrust motion, in contrast to high-angle coseismic faults at most places. Surface outcrop and two shallow drilling studies reveal that the fault zone is several centimeters wide at most and that the coseismic slip zone during Wenchuan earthquake is about 1 mm thick. Fault zone contains foliated cataclasite, fault breccia, black gouge and yellowish gouge. Many clasts of foliated cataclasite and black gouge contained in fault breccia indicate multiple slip events along this fault. But fossils on both sides of fault do not indicate clear age difference and overall displacement along this fault should not be large. We also report results from high-velocity friction experiments conducted on yellowish gouge from the fault zone using a rotary shear low to high-velocity frictional testing apparatus. Dry experiments at normal stresses of 0.4 to 1.8 MPa and at slip rates of 0.08 to 1.35 m/s reveal dramatic slip weakening from the peak friction coefficient of around 0.6 to very low steady-state friction coefficient of 0.1-0.2. Slip weakening parameters of this carbonate fault zone are similar to those of clayey fault gouge from Yingxiu-Beichuan fault at Hongkou outcrop and from Pingxi fault zone. Our experimental result will provide a condition for triggering movement of subsidiary faults or off-fault damage during a large earthquake.     

Monte Carlo Inversion of DInSAR Data for Dislocation Modeling: Application to the 1997 Umbria-Marche Seismic Sequence (Central Italy)

— The study of surface deformation due to seismic activity is often made using dislocations with uniform slip and simple geometries. A better modeling of coseismic and postseismic surface displacements can be obtained by using dislocations with variable slip and nonregular shapes. This is consistent with the asperity model of fault surfaces, assuming a friction distribution on faults made of locked zones with much higher friction than surrounding zones. In this paper we consider the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. The coseismic surface displacements in the Colfiorito zone are used in order to infer the slip distribution on the fault surface at different stages of the sequence. The displacement field has been modeled varying the slip distribution on the fault, and comparing the deformation observed by SAR and GPS techniques with model results. The slip distribution is calculated by Monte Carlo simulations on a normal fault with the dip angle equal to 40°. A good approximation is obtained by using square asperity units of 1.5×1.5 km². In the first stage, we employed a simplified model with uniform slip, in which each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, and in the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results show that the 1997 seismic events of the sequence can be modeled by irregular dislocations, obtaining a good fit to the DInSAR and GPS observations. The model also confirms the results of previous studies by a different methodology, defining the distribution of asperities on the fault plane using the fault geometry, the geodetic data and the seismic moment of the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. Furthermore, the analysis of 1997 aftershocks in the seismogenic region shows a strong correlation between most events and the asperity distribution, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model.