Effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation: Application of ray tracing to tsunamis

Ray tracing of seismic surface waves is applied to tsunami propagation to examine bathymetric effect along its propagation path. Computations are made for trans-Pacific tsunamis and for near-field tsunamis in the Japan Sea. For tsunamis across the Pacific Ocean, the comparison to a uniform ocean shows that focusing and defocusing, due to bathymetry, are significant for some combinations of source and receiver. For example, the refraction of rays is predominant at the East Pacific Rise for the tsunami from Chile. The tsunamis in the Japan Sea are strongly affected by the shallow Yamato Rise. The predicted arrival time and amplitude distribution generally agree with the observations from an actual tsunami. Since the computation can be made very quickly, the method is useful for preliminary analysis of tsunami propagation, such as in an operational warning system or in the determination of computational area for finite-difference computation.     

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.     

Sumatra tsunami: lessons from modeling

The need for the combination of seismic data with real-time wave height information for an effective prediction of tsunami impact is emphasized in the paper. A preliminary, but comprehensive study of arrival times, wave heights and run-up values at a number of locations and tide gage stations throughout the Indian Ocean seaboard is presented. Open ocean wave height data from satellite observations are analyzed and used in the reconstruction of a tsunami source mechanism for the December 26, 2004 event. The reconstructed source is then used to numerically estimate tsunami impact along the Indian Ocean seaboard, including wave height, and arrival times at 12 tide gage stations, and inundation at 3 locations on the coast of India. The December 2004, as well as the March 28, 2005 tsunamis are investigated and their differences in terms of tsunami generation are analyzed and presented as a clear example of the need for both, seismic and real-time tsunami data for a reliable tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean.     

Long-Term Tsunami Data Archive Supports Tsunami Forecast, Warning, Research, and Mitigation

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the United States began a careful review and strengthening of its programs aimed at reducing the consequences of tsunamis. Several reports and calls to action were drafted, including the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109–424) signed into law by the President in December 2006. NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology (WDC-GMG) maintain a national and international tsunami data archive that fulfills part of the P.L. 109-424. The NGDC/WDC-GMG long-term tsunami data archive has expanded from the original global historical event databases and damage photo collection, to include tsunami deposits, coastal water-level data, DART? buoy data, and high-resolution coastal DEMs. These data are used to validate models, provide guidance to warning centers, develop tsunami hazard assessments, and educate the public about the risks from tsunamis. In this paper we discuss current steps and future actions to be taken by NGDC/WDC-GMG to support tsunami hazard mitigation research, to ultimately help save lives and improve the resiliency of coastal communities.     

Introduction to “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Volume II. Tsunamis from 1755 to 2010”

Eighteen papers on past and recent destructive tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World.” Three papers discuss deep-sea (DART) and coastal tsunami observations, warning systems and risk management in the Pacific Ocean. Four papers examine the 1755 Lisbon, 1964 Alaska, 2003 Algeria, and 2011 Haiti tsunamis. Four more papers, as well as some papers in Volume I, report on various aspects of the 2010 Chile tsunami. Two papers present some results of field survey and modelling investigation of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, tsunami. Three papers report on modelling efforts of tsunami generation by earthquake and landslide, and of tsunami propagation. Finally, two papers discuss hazard assessment using a probabilistic approach.     

港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析

一直以来,海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用,特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说,这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中,海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流,可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害,进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此,全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征,探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法,发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性,大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证,可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程,针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m）,并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征,波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好,精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅,同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大,这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关;相比海啸波幅空间特征,海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性;海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强,海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性;不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差,合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后,希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征,拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度,从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.     

EFFECT OF TSUNAMIS GENERATED IN THE MANILA TRENCH ON CHINA MAINLAND

Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than M_W7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention.     

Relationship of Tsunami Intensity to Source Earthquake Magnitude as Retrieved from Historical Data

Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M _s and M _w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).     

越洋海啸的数值模拟

破坏性海啸基本上都是越洋海啸,如1960年智利海啸、2004年苏门答腊海啸。越洋海啸的传播机制与近场海啸不同,进行数值模拟所采用的数学模型也不同。本文分析比较Boussinesq方程和线性浅水方程,选用后者作为进行越洋海啸数值模拟的数学模型,基于有限差分法,运用蛙跃格式求解微分方程。以2004年苏门答腊海啸作为算例,把计算结果与NOAA和NGDC的计算结果进行对比,验证本文的数学模型和计算方法的可靠性,为以后进一步的海啸危险性分析和海啸预警等研究工作提供技术支持。     

Steps Towards the Implementation of a Tsunami Detection, Warning, Mitigation and Preparedness Program for Southwestern Coastal Areas of Mexico

The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.     

Tsunami–tide interactions: A Cook Inlet case study

First, we investigated some aspects of tsunami–tide interactions based on idealized numerical experiments. Theoretically, by changing total ocean depth, tidal elevations influence the speed and magnitude of tsunami waves in shallow regions with dominating tidal signals. We tested this assumption by employing a simple 1-D model that describes propagation of tidal waves in a channel with gradually increasing depth and the interaction of the tidal waves with tsunamis generated at the channel's open boundary. Important conclusions from these studies are that computed elevations by simulating the tsunami and the tide together differ significantly from linear superposing of the sea surface heights obtained when simulating the tide and the tsunami separately, and that maximum tsunami–tide interaction depends on tidal amplitude and phase. The major cause of this tsunami–tide interaction is tidally induced ocean depth that changes the conditions of tsunami propagation, amplification, and dissipation. Interactions occur by means of momentum advection, bottom friction, and variable water flux due to changing total depth and velocity. We found the major cause of tsunami–tide interactions to be changing depth. Secondly, we investigate tsunami–tide interactions in Cook Inlet, Alaska, employing a high-resolution 2-D numerical model. Cook Inlet has high tides and a history of strong tsunamis and is a potential candidate for tsunami impacts in the future. In agreement with previous findings, we find that the impacts of tsunamis depend on basin bathymetries and coastline configurations, and they can, in particular, depend on tsunami–tide interactions. In regions with strong tides and tsunamis, these interactions can result in either intensification or damping of cumulative tsunami and tide impacts, depending on mean basin depth, which is regulated by tides. Thus, it is not possible to predict the effect of tsunami–tide interaction in regions with strong tides without making preliminary investigations of the area. One approach to reduce uncertainties in tsunami impact in regions with high tides is to simulate tsunamis together with tidal forcing.     

Comparison of two great Chile tsunamis in 1960 and 2010 using numerical simulation

Great differences in hazard and losses were shown from two tsunamis, both generated in Chile, one in 1960 and the other in 2010. Numerical simulation was applied to the tsunami analysis. The fault dislocation of the seafloor was assumed to equal to the initial tsunami wave field, which can be calculated by the formula of fault dislocation in the elastic isotropic half-space. The linear long wave theory was used as the tsunami hydrodynamic model, and the finite difference method and leap-frog scheme were selected for solving the equations. The accuracy of the simulated results was verified by the observed data in five tide gauges. By means of two scenario tsunamis, the analytical results show that the earthquake magnitude, bathymetry in rupture zone and rapid release of warning information in 2010 tsunami are the main explanations of the aforementioned great difference.     

Introduction to “Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past,Present, and Future. Volume II”

Fifteen papers are included in Volume 2 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: reports and studies of recent tsunamis, studies on tsunami statistics and application to tsunami warning, and modeling studies of tsunami runup and inundation. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14–16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

Magnitude-geographical criterion for operational tsunami prognosis: Analysis of application in 1958–2009

Re-evaluation of magnitude-geographical criterion of tsunami prediction is one of the main directions of improvement of the tsunami warning service acting on the coast of the Russian Far East. The main directions of this work are a careful analysis of the tsunami warnings issued by the service during the period of its operation (since 1958), determining of reasons for false alarms and missed warnings, delineation of tsunamigenic areas threatening the Far East coast of Russia, optimal selection of magnitude thresholds for each tsunamigenic zone, evaluation of the expected ratio between real/missed/false warnings, determination of the degree of influence of other source parameters (focus depth, source mechanism), and evaluation of probability of occurrence for nonseismic tsunamis. The present paper considers the results of operations for prediction of tsunamis from submarine earthquakes that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, Sea of Japan, and Sea of Okhotsk during the last 52 years.     

Introduction to “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Volume I. The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami”

Twenty-one papers on the 2011 Tohoku, Japan tsunami are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World.” Two papers discuss seismological aspects of the event with an emphasis on tsunami generation and warning. Five papers report the impacts and effects in Japan through field surveys of tsunami heights, building damage, and tsunami deposits or analysis of satellite data. Eight papers report the tsunami effects on other Pacific coasts, including the Kuril Islands, the USA, French Polynesia, the Galapagos Islands, Australia, and New Zealand. Three papers report on analyses of the instrumental records of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and two more papers report their modelling efforts of the tsunami. Several of the above papers also compare the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Chile tsunamis.     

Analysis of seismological and tsunami data from the 1993 Guam earthquake

The fault parameters of the Guam earthquake of August 8, 1993 are estimated from seismological analyses, and the possibility of identifying the actual fault plane from tsunami waveforms is tested. The Centroid Moment Tensor solution of long-period surface waves shows one nodal plane shallowly dipping to the north and the other nodal plane steeply dipping to the south. The seismic moment is 3.5×10²⁰ Nm and the corresponding moment magnitude is 7.7. The Moment Tensor Rate Function inversion ofP waves also yields a similar focal mechanism and seismic moment. The point source depth is estimated as 40–50 km.This earthquake generated tsunamis that propagated toward the Japanese coast along the Izu-Bonin-Mariana ridge system. The tsunamis are recorded on ocean bottom pressure gauges and tide gauges. Numerical computation of tsunamis shows that the computed waveforms from the two possible fault planes match well with the observed tsunami waveforms. The numerical computation also shows that the tsunami waveforms at Guam Island, just above the fault, should contain useful information regarding the identification of the actual fault plane. However, the current sampling rate of the tide gauges is so small that the records cannot help the identification.     

FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves, Ocean Acoustic Waves, and Tsunamis Based on Tsunami-Coupled Equations of Motion

We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.     

Tsunami Assessment for Risk Management at Nuclear Power Facilities in Japan

The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the site.     

Tsunami Deposits

—Geological investigations of coastal sediments indicate that prehistoric tsunamis can be identified. Their characterisation has altered our knowledge of the past frequency and magnitude of tsunamis for different areas of the world. Yet there have been relatively few geological studies of modern tsunamis with virtually no direct observations of the processes associated with tsunami sediment transport and deposition. This paper discusses these issues and draws on the results of recent research to summarise our current knowledge on the nature of tsunami deposits.