A case study of spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture in the Loess Plateau, western China： A geostatistical approach

Soil moisture distribution shows highly variation both spatially and temporally. This study assesses the spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture on a hill-slope scale in the Loess Plateau in West China by using a geostatistical approach. Soil moisture was measured by time-domain reflectometry （TDR） in 313 samples. Two kinds of sampling scales were used （2 × 2 m and 20 ×20 m） at two soil layers （0-30 cm and 30-60 cm）. The general characteristics of soil moisture were analyzed by a classical statistics method, and the spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture was analyzed using a geostatistical approach. The results showed that the spherical model is the best-fit model to simulate soil moisture on the experimental hill-slope. The parameters of this model indicated that the spatial dependence of soil moisture in the selected hill-slope was moderate. Even the 2 × 2 m sampling scale was too coarse to show the detailed spatial variances of soil moisture in this area. The dependent distance increased from 27.4 m to 494.16 m as the sampling scale became coarse （from 2× 2 m to 20 ×20 m）. A map of soil moisture was generated by using original soil moisture data and interpolated values determined by the Kriging method. The average soil moisture （area weighted） in the different layers of soil was calculated on the basis of this map （10.94% for the 0-30 cm soil layer, 11.88% for the 30-60 cm soil layer）. This average soil moisture is lower than the corresponding average effective soil moisture, which suggests that the soil moisture is not sufficient to support vegetation in this area.     

Assessment of soil erosion and sediment delivery ratio using remote sensing and GIS： a case study of upstream Chaobaihe River catchment, north China

Soil erosion in catchment areas reduces soil productivity and causes a loss of reservoir capacity. Several parametric models have been developed to predict soil erosion at drainage basins, hill slopes and field levels. The well-known Universal Soil Loss Equation （USLE） represents a standardized approach. Miyun reservoir, which sits on Chaobaihe River, is the main surface source of drinking water for Beijing, the capital of China. Water and soil loss are the main reasons for sediment to enter a reservoir. Sediment yield is assessed using a version of the universal soil loss equation modified by Chinese researchers. All year 2001 and 2002 data for factors in the equation are obtained from remote sensing or collected to form an analysis database. These factors are computed and mapped using Geographic Information System tools. Based on the complex database, the modified model is developed. Through pixel-based computing the sediment yield per hydrological unit is calculated. The model does not consider sediment deposition occurring on hillslopes. Gross soil loss is often higher than the sum of those measured at catchment outlets. The sediment delivery ratio （SDR） per hydrological unit is also computed. This study analyzes the main contributions of sediment yields on sub-basins of the Chaobaihe River to the Miyun Reservoir, and discusses the possible reasons for the difference between SDRs in 2001 and 2002 at different outlets. The result shows that in the upper basin of the Miyun Reservoir, in 2001 the area of erosion that could be neglected was 8,202.76 km^2, the area of low erosion 3,269.59 km^2, the area of moderate erosion 3,400.97 km^2, the area of high erosion 436.89 km^2, the area of strong erosion 52.19 km^2 and the area of severe erosion 3.13 km^2. The highest soil loss was 70,353 t/km^2. yr in Fengning County in 2001, followed by 64,418 t/km^2. yr by Chicheng County in 2001. The SDR in 2002 was lower than that in 2001. The main reasons are the decreasing rainfall erosivity and total runoff.     

Can the tropical storms originated from the Bay of Bengal impact the precipitation and soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau?

This study investigates the impacts of tropical storms originated from the Bay of Bengal(BOBTSs) on the precipitation and soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) in April–June(AMJ) and September–December(SOND) during 1981–2011 based on the best track dataset provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC). Results indicate that there are about 1.35 BOBTSs influence the TP in each year and most of them occurred in May and October, and the BOBTSs in AMJ influence the TP with larger extension and higher latitudes than those in SOND. The maximum regional precipitation induced by the BOBTSs accounts for more than 50% for the total precipitation in the corresponding month and about 20% for the season. Further analysis reveals that the surface soil moisture anomalies induced by the BOBTSs can persist only 20–25 days in AMJ, and the case is also true for the snow depth in SOND. Numerical simulations by using the regional climate model of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) suggest that the soil moisture anomalies in the sub-surface can last 2 months whereas for the surface it can persist only about 20 days, which agrees well with the observation analysis. Overall, the effect of the preceding BOBTSs on the snow depth and soil moisture anomalies over the TP cannot maintain to summer, and there is no robust connection between the BOBTSs and summer precipitation anomalies in East China. Moreover, since the mid-1990 s, the spring rainfall induced by the BOBTSs over the TP seems to be enhanced to a certain degree because of the intensified BOBTSs.     

Research on the evolution law of permafrost under the influence of urbanization based on remote sensing technology

The permafrost of Mohe County and its suburbs in the Daxing′an Mountains has been influenced by the urbanization. Remote sensing, GIS technology and numerical simulation was used to study the temperature variations of permafrost with the changes in surface vegetation that cover Mohe County and suburban areas, and the law of permafrost degradation on the study area was analyzed. The research results show that the urban area of the study area increased 114.42%from 2000 to 2016, and the urbanization process is continuing to accelerate. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index map of 2017 in Mohe County and its suburbs was studied and the maximum proportion of vegetation coverage was different in the four seasons. The numerical calculation model results show that the permafrost temperature change in the study area cyclically fluctuates in a cosine form. The annual variation curve of permafrost temperature gradually decreased and its accompanying phase lag increased with depth. The annual temperature change value with the different depths of the town was greater than the natural ground. The maximum permafrost thawing depths of the town and natural ground were 4.2 m and 2.82 m in 50 a, and the degradation rates of the two permafrost are, respectively, 0.88 cm/a and 0.46 cm/a. These results show that urbanization has accelerated the degradation of permafrost.     

Analysis of spatial distribution and multi-year trend of the remotely sensed soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

Long-term highly accurate surface soil moisture data of TP(Tibetan Plateau)are important to the research of Asian monsoon and global atmospheric circulation.However,due to the sparse in-situ networks,the lack of soil moisture observations has seriously hindered the progress of climate change researches of TP.Based on the Dual-Channel soil moisture retrieval algorithm and the satellite observation data of AMSR-E(Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS),we have produced the surface soil moisture data of TP from 2003 to 2010 and analyzed the seasonal characteristic of the soil moisture spatial distribution and its multi-year changing trend in area of TP.Compared to the in-situ observations,the accuracy of the soil moisture retrieved by the proposed algorithm is evaluated.The evaluation result shows that the new soil moisture product has a better accuracy in the TP region than the official product of AMSR-E.The spatial distribution of the annual mean values of soil moisture and the seasonal variations of the monthly-averaged soil moisture are analyzed.The results show that the soil moisture variations in space and time are consistent with the precipitation distribution and the water vapor transmission path in TP.Based on the new soil moisture product,we also analyzed the spatial distribution of the changing trend of multi-year soil moisture in TP.From the comparisons with the precipitation changing trend obtained from the meteorological observation sites in TP,we found that the spatial pattern of the changing trend of soil moisture coincides with the precipitation as a whole.     

Impacts of permafrost changes on alpine ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Alpine cold ecosystem with permafrost environment is quite sensitive to climatic changes and the changes in permafrost can significantly affect the alpine ecosystem. The vegetation coverage, grassland biomass and soil nutrient and texture are selected to indicate the regime of alpine cold ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The interactions between alpine ecosystem and permafrost were investigated with the depth of active layer, permafrost thickness and mean annual ground temperature (MAGTs). Based on the statistics model of GPTR for MAGTs and annual air temperatures, an analysis method was developed to analyze the impacts of permafrost changes on the alpine ecosystems. Under the climate change and human engineering activities, the permafrost change and its impacts on alpine ecosystems in the permafrost region between the Kunlun Mountains and the Tanggula Range of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are studied in this paper. The results showed that the per- mafrost changes have a different influence on different alpine ecosystems. With the increase in the thickness of active layer, the vegetation cover and biomass of the alpine cold meadow exhibit a significant conic reduction, the soil organic matter content of the alpine cold meadow ecosystem shows an exponential decrease, and the surface soil materials become coarse and gravelly. The alpine cold steppe ecosystem, however, seems to have a relatively weak relation to the permafrost environment. Those relationships resulted in the fact that the distribution area of alpine cold meadow decreased by 7.98% and alpine cold swamp decreased by 28.11% under the permafrost environment degradation during recent 15 years. In the future 50 years the alpine cold meadow ecosystems in different geomorphologic units may have different responses to the changes of the permafrost under different climate warming conditions, among them the alpine cold meadow and swamp ecosystem located in the low mountain and plateau area will have a relatively serious degradation. Furthermore, from the angles of grassland coverage and biological production the variation characteristics of high-cold eco- systems in different representative regions and different geomorphologic units under different climatic conditions were quantitatively assessed. In the future, adopting effective measures to protect permafrost is of vital importance to maintaining the stability of permafrost engineering and alpine cold eco- systems in the plateau.     

Linkage between permafrost distribution and river runoff changes across the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau

River runoff in the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau(TP) change significantly in recent decades. However, the mechanisms of the physical processes of permafrost river runoff change remain uncertain across large scale. This study investigated the mainstreams and tributaries of main Arctic and TP rivers dominated by permafrost and assessed the linkage between hydrological regime change and permafrost. The results show that the effects of permafrost on river runoff are highly dependent on the permafrost coverage of a watershed. For the past decades, the majority of the Arctic and TP basins showed increased discharge, while all of the studied basins showed increased baseflow, with faster increasing speed than total discharge.Both total discharge and baseflow annual change rate(ΔQ and ΔBF) increased with permafrost coverage, indicating the increments of streamflow are enhanced with high permafrost coverage. Meanwhile, the annual change of precipitation showed weak connection with total discharge and baseflow change. The high permafrost coverage basins showed high annual maximum/minimum discharge ratio(Qmax/Qmin), while the Qmax/Qminchanged slightly in low permafrost cover basins. Our results highlight the importance of permafrost coverage on streamflow regime change for permafrost basins across the northern hemisphere. Due to these linkage between permafrost extent and runoff regime change and the increasing changes of permafrost, more attention should be paid to the change of hydrological processes in permafrost-underlain basins.     

Seismic Zonation of Central- Southern Hunan Province, China

Based on basic data used in compiling the Zonation Map of Earthquake Ground Motion Parameters in China, recent research on seismic safety assessment for engineering sites in central-southern Hunan Province, the new attenuation relationships of moderate earthquakes and the background seismicity data obtained by modern instrumental earthquake records since 1970, a new result of seismic zonation of central-southern Hunan Province is provided. The result shows that the area with PGA=0.05g has obviously increased in the new map compared with the previous one and is relatively consistent with the seismic disaster characteristics of moderate earthquakes that took place in the central-southern part of Hunan in recent years. This result will benefit the research and compilation of a new-generation seismic zonation map of earthquake ground motion parameters and the seismic hazard assessment in the moderate earthquake active regions in the central and eastern part of China.     

Development of a daily soil moisture product for the period of2002–2011 in Chinese mainland

Soil moisture is an essential climate variable(ECV) concerned widely. Due to its high spatial variability, it is costly to measure soil moisture at tens of kilometers scale. In this study, a ten-year(2002–2011) daily soil moisture dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution for Chinese mainland was produced through assimilating the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) brightness temperature(TB) data into a land surface model(LSM). The obtained soil moisture data was evaluated against soil moisture-measuring networks deployed in two wet areas and one dry area of the Tibetan Plateau.The results show that for the wet areas the accuracy of the soil moisture product obtained from the assimilation is considerably higher than that of both AMSR-E official soil moisture products and land surface simulation results, and for the dry area their accuracy is comparable to each other. The spatial pattern of the soil moisture from the new product is consistent with that of soil porosity from an independent survey-based dataset, further confirming the credibility of the new product. According to this product, the transition regions in China show stronger seasonal variation of soil moisture than dry and wet regions, and drier regions have stronger inter-annual variability of soil moisture than wetter regions, particularly during transitional seasons(spring and autumn). The soil moisture product is accessible at the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center.     

EVALUATION OF EROSION PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT CALCULATOR （EPIC） MODEL FOR MIDDLE MOUNTAIN REGION OF NEPAL

This study verifies the applicability of EPIC model for an erosion plot (61 .2 m~2) and an uplandterraced watershed (72 ha) using a total of 94 rainfall events over a study period of two years. Inorder to analyze the effect of storm size on runoff and soil loss processes, rainfall events aredivided into three groups: small (<25mm), moderate (25--50mm) and large (>50mm). Resultsindicate that the model could predict reasonably well the runoff and soil loss from the erosion plotand the watershed for the moderate and large rainfall events. However, the runoff and soil lossprediction for the small rainfall events is found to be poor. On annual basis, both surface runoff andsoil loss predictions match well the observations. In ligh of the importance of the moderate andlarge rainfall events in producing most of the annual runoff and soil loss in the study area, the EPICmodel is applied to assess the impacts of erosion on agricultural productivity and to evaluatemanagement practices to protect watersheds in the     

The Influence of Earth Temperature on the Dynamic Characteristics of Frozen Soil and the Parameters of Ground Motion on Sites of Permafrost

Earth temperature is one of the most important factors influencing the mechanical properties of frozen soil. Based on the field investigation of the characteristics of ground deformation and ground failure caused by the Ms8.1 earthquake in the west of the Kuniun Mountain Pass,China, the influence of temperature on the dynamic constitutive relationship, dynamic elastic modulus, damping ratio and dynamic strength of frozen soil was quantitatively studied by means of the dynamic triaxial test. Moreover, the characteristics of ground motion on a permafrost site under different temperatures were analyzed for the four profiles of permafrost along the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Railway using the time histories of ground motionacceleration with 3 exceedance probabilities of the Kunlun Mountains area. The influences of temperature on the seismic displacement, velocity, acceleration and response spectrum on permafrost ground were studied quantitatively. A scientific basis was presented for earthquake disaster mitigation for engineering foundations, highways and underground engineering in permafrost areas.     

Dissolved organic carbon in permafrost regions: A review

A large quantity of organic carbon(C) is stored in northern and elevational permafrost regions. A portion of this large terrestrial organic C pool will be transferred by water into soil solution(～0.4 Pg C yr~(-1))(1 Pg=10~(15) g), rivers (～0.06 Pg C yr~(-1)),wetlands, lakes, and oceans. The lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon(DOC) is the primary pathway, impacting river biogeochemistry and ecosystems. However, climate warming will substantially alter the lateral C shifts in permafrost regions.Vegetation, permafrost, precipitation, soil humidity and temperature, and microbial activities, among many other environmental factors, will shift substantially under a warming climate. It remains uncertain as to what extent the lateral C cycle is responding,and will respond, to climate change. This paper reviews recent studies on terrestrial origins of DOC, biodegradability, transfer pathways, and modelling, and on how to forecast of DOC fluxes in permafrost regions under a warming climate, as well as the potential anthropogenic impacts on DOC in permafrost regions. It is concluded that:(1) surface organic layer, permafrost soils,and vegetation leachates are the main DOC sources, with about 4.72 Pg C DOC stored in the topsoil at depths of 0–1 m in permafrost regions;(2) in-stream DOC concentrations vary spatially and temporally to a relatively small extent (1–60 mg C L~(-1)) and annual export varies from 0.1–10 g C m~(-2) yr~(-1);(3) biodegradability of DOC from the thawing permafrost can be as high as 71%, with a median at 52%;(4) DOC flux is controlled by multiple factors, mainly including vegetation, soil properties,permafrost occurrence, river discharge and other related environmental factors, and(5) many statistical and process-based models have been developed, but model predictions are inconsistent with observational results largely dependent on the individual watershed characteristics and future discharge trends. Thus, it is still difficult to predict how future lateral C flux will respond to climate change, but changes in the DOC regimes in individual catchments can be predicted with a reasonable reliability. It is advised that sampling protocols and preservation and analysis methods should be standardized, and analytical techniques at molecular scales and numerical modeling on thermokarsting processes should be prioritized.     

CLASSIFICATION AND TYPES OF PREFERENTIAL FLOW FOR A DARK CONIFEROUS FOREST ECOSYSTEM IN THE UPPER REACH AREA OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

Preferential flow is the ordinary phenomenon of rapid and non-equilibrium transport of water and solutes occurring in most soil. It causes latent pollution of ground and surface waters and affects runoff yield and flow concentration. This paper studies preferential flow for a dark coniferous ecosystem in the upper reach area of the Yangtze River, establishes a classification for the preferential flow and discusses types of preferential flow with a soil column experiment using a homemade apparatus and dye-tracer analysis. The preferential flow is mainly unsaturated gravitational flow in the upper layer of the slope deposit for mature forest soil, which is dominated by a wetness front, and the flow gradually transforms to macroporous flow as the soil layer deepens. The observed preferential flow in the young, middle-aged and over-mature forests that have grown on glacial lateral moraines is macroporous flow. The purpose of this research is to analyze systemically the behavior of soil water movement for a dark coniferous forest ecosystem in the upper reach area of the Yangtze River and to provide a theoretical basis for effective watershed management.     

Preliminary study on assessment of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin based on SWAT modeling

With the Taihu Basin as a study area, using the spatially distributed and mechanism-based SWAT model, preliminary simulations of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin during the period of 1995-2002 has been carried out. The topography, soil, meteorology and land use with industrial point pollution discharge, the loss of agricultural fertilizers, urban sewerage, and livestock drainages were all considered in the boundary conditions of the simulations. The model was calibrated and validated against water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2002. The results show that the annual total productions of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) into Lake Taihu are 40000t and 2000t respectively. Nutrient from the Huxi Region is a major resource for Lake Taihu. The non-point source (surface source) pollution is the main form of catchment sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, occupied TN 53% and TP 56% respectively. TN and TP nutrients from industrial point pollution discharge are 30% and 16%, and sewerage in both forms of point source and non-point source are TN 31 % and TP 47%. Both the loss of agricultural fertilizers and livestock drainages from the catchment should be paid more attention as an important nutrient source. The results also show that SWAT is an effective model for the simulation of temporally and spatially nutrient changes and for the assessment of the trends in a catchment scale.     

Jacobian matrix for near-infrared remote sensing based on vector radiative transfer model

Due to the polarization effects of the Earth's surface reflection and atmospheric particles' scattering, high-precision retrieval of atmospheric parameters from near-infrared satellite data requires accurate vector atmospheric radiative transfer simulations. This paper presents a near-infrared vector radiative transfer model based on the doubling and adding method. This new model utilizes approximate calculations of the atmospheric transmittance, reflection, and solar scattering radiance for a finitely thin atmospheric layer. To verify its accuracy, the results for four typical scenarios(single molecular layer with Rayleigh scattering, single aerosol layer scattering, multi-layer Rayleigh scattering, and true atmospheric with multi-layer molecular absorption, Rayleigh and aerosol scattering) were compared with benchmarks from a well-known model. The comparison revealed an excellent agreement between the results and the reference data, with accuracy within a few thousandths. Besides, to fulfill the retrieval algorithm, a numerical differentiation-based Jacobian calculation method is developed for the atmospheric and surface parameters. This is coupled with the adding and doubling process for the radiative transfer calculation. The Jacobian matrix produced by the new algorithm is evaluated by comparison with that from the perturbation method. The relative Jacobian matrix deviations between the two methods are within a few thousandths for carbon dioxide and less than 1.0×10~(-3)% for aerosol optical depth. The two methods are consistent for surface albedo, with a deviation below 2.03×10~(-4)%. All validation results suggest that the accuracy of the proposed radiative transfer model is suitable for inversion applications. This model exhibits the potential for simulating near-infrared measurements of greenhouse gas monitoring instruments.     

Effects of hedgerows on sediment erosion in Three Gorges Dam Area, China

The Three Gorges Dam Area refers to the river section from Chongqing to Yichang on the Yangtze River, which has a drainage area of 75,098 km^2, and involves 19 cities and counties. Contour hedgerows have been used in this area to control soil erosion and to improve hillslope stability in the catchment of this river section. Five experimental hedgerow plots were established in 1994 in order to study the effects of hedgerows on erosion control. During the period of 1994-1997, runoff and soil loss data were collected on these test plots, including the chemical and physical properties of soil and related topographical data. The results indicate that： （1） after 4 years of cultivation and crop planting, soil fertility increased dramatically in the hedgerow plots. Soil organic matter, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus contents in the hedgerow plots were 5-9 times higher than that in the control plot. In each of the hedgerow plots, soil structure became more stable, the quantity of granules larger than 0.02 mm increased and those finer than 0.02 mm decreased; （2） All hedgerow plots showed a major effect on reducing soil loss and surface runoff; （3） Overland flow velocity along the upper portion of the hedgerow plots was greatly reduced due to hedgerow resistance, which explains the significant decrease in soil losses in hedgerow plots, despite the fact that the hedgerow plots and the control plots had the same total runoff.     

Influence factors and variation characteristics of water vapor absorption by soil in semi-arid region

The adsorption of water vapor by soil is one of the crucial contributors to non-rainfall water on land surface, particularly over semi-arid regions where its contribution can be equivalent to precipitation and can have a major impact on dry agriculture and the ecological environment in these regions. However, due to difficulties in the observation of the adsorption of water vapor,research in this area is limited. This study focused on establishing a method for estimating the quantitative observation of soil water vapor adsorption(WVA), and exploring the effects of meteorological elements(e.g., wind, temperature, and humidity) and soil environmental elements(e.g., soil temperature, soil moisture, and the available energy of soil) on WVA by soil over the semi-arid region, Dingxi, by combining use of the L-G large-scale weighing lysimeter and meteorological observation. In addition, this study also analyzed the diurnal and annual variations of WVA amount, frequency, and intensity by soil, how they changed with weather conditions, and the contribution of WVA by soil to the land surface water budget. Results showed that WVA by soil was co-affected by various meteorological and soil environmental elements, which were more likely to occur under conditions of relative humidity of 6.50% and the diurnal variation of relative humidity was large, inversion humidity, wind velocity of 3.4 m/s,lower soil water content, low surface temperature and slightly unstable atmospheric conditions. There was a negative feedback loop between soil moisture and the adsorption of water vapor, and, moreover, the diurnal and annual variations of WVA amount and frequency were evident—WVA by soil mainly occurred in the afternoon, and the annual peak appeared in December and the valley in June, with obvious regional characteristics. Furthermore, the contribution of WVA by soil to the land surface water budget obviously exceeded that of precipitation in the dry season.     

Thermal regimes and degradation modes of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway

Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is widespread, thin, and thermally unstable. Under a warming climate during the past few decades, it has been degrading extensively with generally rising ground temperatures, the deepening of the maximum summer thaw, and with lessening of the winter frost penetration. The permafrost has degraded downward, upward and laterally. Permafrost has thinned or, in some areas, has totally disappeared. The modes of permafrost degradation have great significance in geocryology, in cold regions engineering and in cold regions environmental management. Permafrost in the interior of the QTP is well represented along the Qing-hai-Tibet Highway (QTH), which crosses the Plateau through north to south and traverses 560 km of permafrost-impacted ground. Horizontally, the degradation of permafrost occurs more visibly in the sporadic permafrost zone in the vicinity of the lower limit of permafrost (LLP), along the margins of taliks, and around permafrost islands. Downward degradation develops when the maximum depth of seasonal thaw exceeds the maximum depth of seasonal frost, and it generally results in the formation of a layered talik disconnecting the permafrost from the seasonal frost layer. The downward degrada- tion is divided into four stages: 1) initial degradation, 2) accelerated degradation, 3) layered talik and 4) finally the conversion of permafrost to seasonally frozen ground (SFG). The upward degradation occurs when the geothermal gradient in permafrost drops to less than the geothermal gradients in the underlying thawed soil layers. Three types of permafrost temperature curves (stable, degrading, and phase-changing transitory permafrost) illustrate these modes. Although strong differentiations in local conditions and permafrost types exist, the various combinations of the three degradation modes will ultimately transform permafrost into SFG. Along the QTH, the downward degradation has been proceeding at annual rates of 6 to 25 cm, upward degradation at 12 to 30 cm, and lateral degradation in the sporadic permafrost zone at 62 to 94 cm during the last quarter century. These rates exceed the 4 cm per year for the past 20 years reported for the discontinuous permafrost zone in subarctic Alaska, the 3 to 7 cm per year reported in Mongolia, and that of the thaw-stable permafrost in subarctic Yakutia and Arctic Alaska.     

Study on the Determination of the Significant National Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions

The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation principle, i.e. the national level SSMPR and the provincial level SSMPR, the principle of highlighting priorities, namely, the area of an SSMPR should be a fraction of the total area of the country or of the respective province, but the earthquake losses incurred in SSMPR should be a major proportion of the national or provincial ones. The scientific train of thought adopted is to determine the SSMPR on the basis of seismic hazard assessment and loss estimation. Secondly, it reviews the achievements in determining the SSMPRs for the period from 1996 to 2005. The result shows that 10 strong earthquakes occurred during that period in the areas with earthquake monitoring and prediction capability available on the Chinese continent, 8 of which occurred in SSMPRs with the economic loss and death toll accounting for 67% and 92% of the total loss on the Chinese mainland. Lastly, the paper introduces preparatory research for determining the SSMPR for the period from 2006 to 2020, including decade-scale mid-and long-range seismic risk assessment based on seismology, seismogeology, geodesy, earthquake engineering, sociology and stochastics and so on, and the national seismic risk probability map, the seismic hazard (intensity) map, earthquake disaster losses map and the comprehensive seismic risk index, etc. obtained for the period of 2006 to 2020.     

Modeling permafrost properties in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau

Water and heat dynamics in the active layer at a monitoring site in the Tanggula Mountains, located in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau(QXP), were studied using the physical-process-based COUPMODEL model, including the interaction between soil temperature and moisture under freeze-thaw cycles. Meteorological, ground temperature and moisture data from different depths within the active layer were used to calibrate and validate the model. The results indicate that the calibrated model satisfactorily simulates the soil temperatures from the top to the bottom of the soil layers as well as the moisture content of the active layer in permafrost regions. The simulated soil heat flux at depths of 0 to 20 cm was consistent with the monitoring data, and the simulations of the radiation balance components were reasonable. Energy consumed for phase change was estimated from the simulated ice content during the freeze/thaw processes from 2007 to 2008. Using this model, the active layer thickness and the energy consumed for phase change were predicted for future climate warming scenarios. The model predicts an increase of the active layer thickness from the current 330 cm to approximately 350–390 cm as a result of a 1–2°C warming. However, the effect active layer thickness of more precipitation is limited when the precipitation is increased by 20%–50%. The COUPMODEL provides a useful tool for predicting and understanding the fate of permafrost in the QXP under a warming climate.