A cross-border regional earthquake early warning system: PRESTo@CE<Superscript>3</Superscript>RN

Since 2002 the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) in Udine (Italy), the Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje (ARSO) in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna (Austria), are collecting, analyzing, archiving and exchanging seismic data in real time, initially in the framework of the EU Interreg IIIa Italia-Austria project “Trans-national seismological networks in the South-Eastern Alps”. As outcome of the successful cooperation, in the 2013 OGS, ARSO and ZAMG decided to officially merge their seismic monitoring efforts into the “Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network—CE³RN”. This work reports the results of a nine-month real-time test of the earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm probabilistic and evolutionary early warning system carried out at the CE³RN. The study allowed identifying the actions to be implemented in order to let the CE³RN become in the next future an efficient cross-border EEW system.     

Earthquake early warning for earth dams: concepts and objectives

In the geotechnical field, the risk related to slope instabilities or collapse of geotechnical structures are increasingly being faced by early warning systems, capable of: (1) predicting the incipient collapse based on the interpretation of a continuous monitoring of the structure and (2) spreading alarm promptly to reduce people exposure. Compared with structural approaches, early warning systems have two important advantages: a faster, simpler and less expensive implementation and environmental compatibility. Past experience indicates that vulnerability of earth dams is generally low under both static and seismic loading conditions. In spite of this, earth dams are characterized by a high-risk level, due to the high exposure factor. Nowadays, the application of early warning systems to dams is fully supported by the technological progress achieved in the telecommunication field, since it is possible to install and automate recordings and transmission of all physical variables significant to check dam safety: accelerations, displacements, pore-water pressures, total stresses, seepage flows. A considerable lack still arises in the predictive models for interpreting monitoring data and providing indicators on dam safety soon after a strong earthquake. The present work illustrates the basic concepts of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for earth dams and the main features that should characterize a predictive model to such a scope. An application to a real case is finally provided, enhancing the role played by each monitored physical variable for the aims of EEW.     

“Internet+” approach to mapping exposure and seismic vulnerability of buildings in a context of rapid socioeconomic growth: a case study in Tangshan,China

This paper presents the development of an “Internet+” approach to mapping exposure and seismic vulnerability of buildings in a context of rapid socioeconomic growth. This approach is a combination of the following interdependent components: (1) extraction of footprint areas of a large number of buildings from high-resolution Google Earth images; (2) estimation of floor numbers of these buildings with an integrated use of high-resolution Google Earth images, Tencent/Baidu Street Views, crowdsourcing data, and associated building-relevant local knowledge; and (3) identification of structural types of these buildings by a combined use of crowdsourcing data and associated building-relevant local knowledge. The efficacy of this “Internet+” approach was demonstrated through an application in Tangshan, China. Field-based verification indicated that the overall mean absolute percentage error of the proposed “Internet+” approach in assessing the total floor area of the addressed buildings was 4.64 %. The verification also showed that the overall consistency between the estimated structural types using the proposed approach and the actual structural types of the buildings with structural type uncertainties could reach 97.54 %, with a kappa coefficient of 0.94. Because of its good accuracy, noteworthy speed, substantial labor savings, negligible cost and distinctive capability in covering large areas in near real time, this “Internet+” approach might have promising prospects in actual seismic loss risk reduction challenges.

     

煤炭物探技术的主要进展及发展趋势

“十二五”期间,煤炭物探在煤层气富集区地震AVO分析技术、瞬变电磁数据拟地震处理等基础研究方面取得了阶段成果;地面高密度全数字三维地震、矿井瞬变电磁探测、矿井槽波地震以及煤矿开采动力灾害监测预警等技术发展成熟,并得到了推广应用;“十三五”期间,预计煤炭物探技术与装备将在智能化监测预警等方面实现优先发展。      

Geological Structure and Ore Mineralogy of the Juliette Gold-Silver Deposit,Northeast Russia

Julietta is a rich epithermal gold-silver deposit of the low-sulfidation, adularia-sericite type, located in the Cretaceous Okhotsk-Chukchi volcanic-plutonic belt 250 km northeast of Magadan. The deposit was discovered in 1989 by a regional soil geochemical survey in an area previously considered barren on the basis of a regional stream-sediment survey. The deposit has not been completely explored, but presently is in the feasibility stage; proven reserves are 26 metric tons of Au (grades averaging 23 g/t) and the Au/Ag ratio is about 1:10.

The deposit occurs on the periphery of a large volcanic-tectonic depression. Host andesite, andesite-basalt lava, corresponding subvolcanic bodies, and tuff are cut by Early Cretaceous quartz diorite stocks. Six vein zones occur in tensional and compression fissures. Ore shoots and smaller bonanzas comprising most of the gold reserves are located in flexures of the ore-host fissures. Ore mineralization was preceded by intense voluminous propylitization and linear sericitization (sericite + quartz + pyrite + ankerite). Orebodies occur within the low-temperature propylite (pyrite + calcite + quartz + chlorite + hydromica). Colloform-crustiform banded textures are commonly observed in the ore. Most of the ore minerals occur within thin, cyclically repeated, fine-grained bands of a hydromica-carbonate-adularia-quartz aggregate. Ore-bearing, fine-grained bands probably formed by periodic fracturing of the veins, whereas barren bands were deposited in relatively quiet conditions. “Micro-stalactites” and other gravitational textures demonstrate that minerals grew in open spaces. Ore-host structures gradually opened during mineralization.

Gangue minerals are primarily quartz, various carbonates (calcite, dolomite, Fe-dolomite [Mg:Fe>2:1], parankerite [Mg: Fe = 2:1], ankerite [Mg: Fe = 1:1], and mesitite [Mg: Fe = 1:1]), and minor hydromica and adularia. Major ore minerals include pyrite, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, galena, tetrahedrite, silver sulfosalts, native gold, and custelite (Au: Ag = 9: 1). Ore mineralization occurred in two stages-an early, post-volcanic stage and a late, post-granitoid stage. The early stage contains most of the precious metals and includes two substages-(1) gold-polymetallic (200 to 260° C) and (2) gold-silver-sulfosalt (90 to 200° C). The late stage also includes two substages-(1) carbonate-rhodonite-quartz (260 to 380° C) and (2) postore quartz-carbonate. Fluid-inclusion homogenization temperatures demonstrate complex temperature zoning. Fluid composition was mainly aqueous, with Cl^?, HCO₃?, Na⁺, K⁺, Ca₂ ⁺, and a salinity less than 4 to 9%. The isotopic age of the deposit is 136 ± 3 Ma by the Rb-Sr method on adularia. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio is about 0.7075 ± 0.0005, indicating a mixed crust-mantle source of the vein matter. Chloride complexes transported gold and silver. The gas composition of the fluid suggests a near-surface, “closed” paleohydrothermal system. A major ore-forming factor could have been high seismic activity related to intrusion of the subvolcanic bodies. Breccias and multiphase veinlets may be related to relatively large-magnitude earthquakes, whereas cyclically banded ores may reflect local pH variations caused by smaller earthquakes.     

Seismotectonic versus man-induced morphological changes in a cave on the Arrábida chain (Portugal)

Abstract

Distinctions between cave morphologies originating from seismic or active tectonics and those generated by natural clastic breakdown or by human activity must be made using unambiguous interpretative criteria.

Easily accessible caves in particular, which may have been visited for centuries or millennia, or caves located near engineering works or quarries using great quantities of explosives, may have broken speleothems, breakdowns or detachment joints unrelated to seismic events or tectonic movements.

Zambujal cave lies near neotectonic and seismic structures associated with a Plio-Quatemary 200 m uplift of the Arrábida chain and has suffered impacts resulting from quarrying, followed by possible vandalism. It is thus an example for which it is difficult to decipher morphological agents as there is the possibility that identical forms have been generated by several causes, which may have repeated at different episodes of its evolution. However, a careful morphological interpretation makes it possible to accept the existence of two seismic episodes, an “ancient” one and a “modern” one. The detection of other episodes between these is only possible using absolute dating. © Elsevier, Paris     

Nanoseismic monitoring of gravity-induced slope instabilities for the risk management of an aqueduct infrastructure in Central Apennines (Italy)

A monitoring system is operative in the Peschiera Springs slope (Central Apennines, Italy) to mitigate the landslide risk related to the hosted main drainage plant of Rome aqueducts by providing alert warning. Such a strategy allows to avoid out-of-service episodes so reducing extra-costs of water distribution management. The Peschiera Springs slope is involved in a rock mass creep characterized by an average steady strain rate of 1 mm year⁻¹ and responsible for several landforms including sinkholes, subvertical scarps and trenches. Moreover, an average aquifer discharge of 19 m³ s⁻¹ causes an intense limestone dissolution concentrated in correspondence with release bands and discontinuities that dislodge the jointed rock mass. Since 2008, an accelerometric network has been operating within the slope; about 1300 microseismic local events were recorded up to now, distinguished in failures and collapses. A control index, based on frequency of occurrence and cumulative energy of the recorded microseismic events was defined to provide three levels of alert. In 2013, a temporary nanoseismic Seismic Navigation System (SNS) array was installed inside a tunnel of the drainage plant to integrate the pre-existent seismic monitoring system. This array allowed to record 37 microseismic events, which locations are in good agreement with the evolutionary geological model of the ongoing gravitational slope deformation. In 2014, a permanent nanoseismic SNS array was installed in the plant and allowed to record several sequences of underground collapses including more than 500 events. The nanoseismic monitoring system is allowing to: (1) increase the detection level of the monitoring system; (2) locate hypocentres of the events; and (3) detect precursors of the strongest events.

     

The Statistics and Distribution of Helium in the Mantle

An unbiased estimate of the ³He/⁴He ratio (R) along the Earth's spreading ridge system is 9.14 ± 3.59 Ra (n = 503) where Ra is the atmospheric ratio (1.38 × 10～6). By arbitrarily excluding all values with R > 11 Ra and from ocean depths less than 2500 meters, I obtain 7.91 ± 1.50 Ra (n = 212), which is close to previous “filtered” estimates based on the hypothesis that the excluded values have been influenced by plumes. These are biased estimates.

Based on unbiased statistics, many of the socalled high-³He hotspot regions have isotopic ratios well within the MORB range, and all have absolute ³He concentrations much less than MORB. The high variance of some oceanic-island data compared to MORB reflects, in part, the difference between a small sample and a large sample, and magma-chamber processes.

Values of 11 to 15 Ra are commonly attributed to deep mantle plumes and “indicative of lower mantle involvement,” but these values are within 2σ of the mean and are not exceptional. Much higher values combined with low absolute helium concentrations are commonly associated with the onset of rifting, or volcanism, and may reflect a shallow, or lithospheric, low-²³⁸U/³He (LONU) source. The temporal progression to average MORB-like values suggests that the bulk of the magmas at spreading ridges and large oceanic constructs comes from below the LONU level. The termination of spreading is associated with low ratios, 6 to 7 Ra, similar to values associated with the high-²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb (HIMU) mantle component and some oceanic islands.     

Great earthquakes,seismicity gaps and potential for earthquake disaster along the Himalaya plate boundary

Analysis of the space-time patterns of seismicity in the Himalaya plate boundary has established the existence of three seismic gaps:

• 1.(1) The “Kashmir gap” lying west of the 1905 Kangra earthquake;
• 2.(2) the “Central gap”, situated between the 1905 Kangra and the 1934 Bihar earthquakes;
• 3.(3) the “Assam gap” between the 1897 and 1950 Assam earthquakes.

This study has shown that the above great earthquakes were preceded as well as followed by long periods (⩾ 19 years) of decreased levels of seismic activity in the epicentral regions. Remarkable decrease in the seismicity following the year 1970 has been observed in the western half of the Central gap as well as in the Assam gap. Local seismic investigation in the Assam gap confirms this feature and the seismicity suggests the existence there of an asperity.The local seismic investigations in Garhwal Himalaya have shown that the small earthquakes are confined to the upper 6–8 km of the crust and may have strike-slip motions. These earthquakes occur in a region where teleseismically recorded events were few.     

Characteristics,mechanisms, and post-disaster lessons of the delayed semi-diagenetic landslide in Hanyuan,Sichuan, China

Landslides following rainfall occurrence are a widespread phenomenon. The neglect of this phenomenon leads to serious loss of life when disasters occur. At 03:45 (GMT?+?8) on August 21, 2020, a semi-diagenetic landslide occurred in Zhonghai Village, Hanyuan County, China, which occurred 42 h after earlier rainfall. Nine people privately returned to their homes after evacuation of the dangerous area. In this disaster, eight people were lost and one injured. This study explores the failure characteristics, inducement, and mechanisms of the landslide via field investigations, resident interviews, multi-temporal images, field drilling, and geotechnical tests. Hydrological numerical calculations were also performed to uncover the seepage and transfer processes of the groundwater in the slope. Finally, problems in the current community early warning system were analyzed and corresponding suggestions put forward. The results show that the maximum sliding depth of the landslide was 27.5 m, the total area was 80,000 m², and the sliding volume was about 58,0000 m³, making it a medium-sized deep landslide. In addition to the vertical seepage of rainfall in the landslide area, the downward movement of rainfall in the back and upper catchment areas along the silt sand strata also affected the stability of the landslide. More needs to be done to make the population aware of this lag phenomenon to achieve scientific disaster reduction. This study not only provides a case study of a lagging semi-diagenetic landslide, but also provides insight into hydrological boundary determination and landslide early warning system construction.

     

Emplacement ages and sources of kimberlites and related rocks in southern Africa: U–Pb ages and Sr–Nd isotopes of groundmass perovskite

Groundmass perovskite has been dated by LA-ICPMS in 135 kimberlites and related rocks from 110 localities across southern Africa. Sr and/or Nd isotopes have been analysed by LA-MC-ICPMS in a subset of these and integrated with published data. The age distribution shows peaks at 1,600–1,800, 1,000–1,200, 500–800 and 50–130 Ma. The major “bloom” of Group I kimberlites at ca 90 ± 10 Ma was preceded by a slow build-up in magmatic activity from ca 180 Ma. The main pulse of Group II kimberlites at 120–130 Ma was a distinct episode within this build-up. Comparison of the isotopic data with seismic tomography images suggests that metasomatized subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) with very low ε _Nd and high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, (the isotopic signature of Group II kimberlites) was focused in low-Vs zones along translithospheric structures. Such metasomatized zones existed as early as 1,800 Ma, but were only sporadically tapped until the magmatic build-up began at ca 180 Ma, and contributed little to the kimberlitic magmas after ca 110 Ma. We suggest that these metasomatized volumes resided in the deep SCLM and that their low-melting point components were “burned off” by rising temperatures, presumably during an asthenospheric upwelling that led to SCLM thinning and a rise in the ambient geotherm between 120 and 90 Ma. The younger Group I kimberlites therefore rarely interacted with such SCLM, but had improved access to shallower volumes of differently metasomatized, ancient SCLM with low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and intermediate ε _Nd (0–5). The kimberlite compositions therefore reflect the evolution of the SCLM of southern Africa, with metasomatic-enrichment events from as early as 1.8 Ga, through a major thermal and compositional change at ca 110 Ma, and the major kimberlite “bloom” around 90 Ma.     

On the geology of the Indoburman ranges

The mountains of western and northwestern Burma consist chiefly of colossal accumulations of Palaeocene to Eocene (Arakan and Chin Hills) or Senonian to Eocene (Naga Hills) Flysch of varying, including “exotic”, facies.

The main frontal thrust zone of the Alpino‐Himalayan Tectogene lies along and within the easternmost ranges of this Indoburman system, not along the western margin (Shan Scarp) of the Sinoburman Highlands. Some of the highest mountains in the Naga Hills are “Klippen” of metamorphics lying on Flysch.

The Flysch ranges arose during the Oligocene but along the Arakan Coast there is ample evidence of an equally important earlier orogenic phase (latest Cretaceous) now almost totally buried beneath the western half of the Indoburman system and the post‐Oligocene “Argille Scagliose” and “Macigno” on‐lapping eastwards from the Bengal‐Assam embayment.

The lowlands of Central and Lower Burma do not represent a foreland feature, but an intramontane Molasse‐filled basin to which the sea retained access because of a general southerly plunge of the Alpine Tectogene. Geotec‐tonically, it is analogous to the Tibetan Plateau, not the Indo‐Gangetic lowlands.     

Sedimentology,biostratigraphy and event stratigraphy of the Early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE1A) in the Apulia Carbonate Platform Margin – Ionian Basin System (Gargano Promontory,southern Italy)

The stratigraphic and biotic signatures of severe environmental changes across the late Early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE1a) in central Tethyan settings have been investigated in the almost undeformed Apulia Carbonate Platform Margin-Ionian Basin system (ACPM-IB) exposed in the Gargano Promontory (southeastern Italy). The nature of the observed Lower Aptian biofacies shifts within the investigated carbonate system are analyzed using an integrated biostratigraphic approach, based on ammonite-calibrated orbitolinids and caprinids coupled with the published δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O record of coeval pelagic sections of the Ionian basin (Coppitella, eastern Gargano, and Paliambela, northwestern Greece). Detailed field analysis of facies and tracing out of key biosedimentary and chemostratigraphic markers of the Lower Aptian have elucidated the evolution of the platform margin and allowed integrated correlations across the Gargano margin to basin transition.It is shown here that the global-scale environmental changes leading to the OAE1a event (i.e., fluctuations of surface-ocean temperature, available trophic resources and, above all, pCO₂) are matched consistently by significant shifts of the biotic associations inhabiting the ACPM. The onset of greenhouse, mesotrophic conditions in the surface ocean undergoing an increasing acidification by CO₂ excess favored the rapid spread of calcite shelled, filter feeding, eurytopic opportunist organisms (chondrodontids, ostreids, chaetetids sponges, along with minor bryozoans) as well as echinoids and orbitolinids (foramol productivity mode); this change is recorded by the deposition of a 4–6 m Crisis Interval (CI) that sharply overlies the “Urgonian”-type, rudist-rich platform margin complex (Montagna degli Angeli Limestones) formed from predominantly aragonite shelled, stenotopic organisms (mostly caprinid rudists, with minor corals and Dasycladales and Bryopsidales green algae) (chlorozoan productivity mode). The CI heralded the incipient drowning of the ACPM which occurred immediately after the deposition of a hothouse “out of balance” brachiopod (Orbirhynchia nadiae)-cyanobacteria association (microbial productivity mode). The biostratigraphically constrained CI and the related drowning of the ACPM have been physically correlated with specific chemostratigraphic segments of the δ¹³C_carb curve that is available for the facing, proximal Ionian Basin. The early (earliest ?) Late Bedoulian, greenhouse CI (early D. deshayesi – early P. cormyi zones) was deposited during the late C2 interval, whereas the early Late Bedoulian, hothouse “out-of-balance” guild and the ACPM drowning (early deshayesi zone) accompanied the subsequent negative excursion and culmination, respectively, at the very base of the Chemostratigraphic Selli Level (CSL) (latest C2 and C3 interval). These correlations permit regional to global interpretations of historical patterns and explanatory paleoeanographic and paleoecologic hypotheses; furthermore, they suggest that the Apulia shallow-water ecosystem reacted to the environmental disruptions linked with the OAE1a sooner than that of the facing open ocean. The onset of the drowning event was synchronous with the hothouse-induced bloom of the “out of balance” brachiopod-cyanobacteria association that occurred simultaneously with the pronounced negative excursion of the δ¹³C_carb curve. This suggests a cause-and-effect relationship with the sudden environmental perturbations linked with the injection into the atmosphere-hydrosphere system of ¹³C-depleted CO₂. The numerical age model of the major biotic and stratigraphic events at the Lower Aptian ACPM, along with their inferred genetic processes call for different timings and causal mechanisms associated with platform demise in northern and central Tethyan settings.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic mode of hydrogen occurrence in natural olivines: FTIR and TEM investigation

Olivine crystals from two mantle nodules in kimberlites (pipe Udachnaya and pipe Obnazennaya, Yakutiya, Siberia) were investigated using EMP, TEM, AEM and FTIR techniques to determine the mode of hydrogen occurrence in olivine. Olivine contains three types of nanometer-sized inclusions: “large” inclusions of hexagonal-like shape up to several hundred nm in size (1), lamellar defects (2) and small inclusions of hexagon-like shape up to several 10?nm in size (3). Lamellar defects and small inclusions are considered to be a “hydrous” olivine. All three types of inclusions contain OH^? or water, but they are different with respect to their phase composition. In “large” inclusions (1) hydrous magnesium silicates, such as serpentine?+?talc (“kerolite”?) and 10-Å phase?+?talc were identified. Lamellar defects (2) and small inclusions (3) are depleted in Mg and Fe compared to the olivine matrix, while the silica content is the same as that of olivine. Modulations in the periodicity of the olivine structure are observed in SAED patterns and HREM images of (2) and (3). The superperiodicity can be referred to OH^?-bearing point defect ordering in the olivine structure. If this is the case, the material of both lamellar defects and small inclusions can be assumed to be a “hydrous olivine” Mg_{2– x} v _x SiO₄H_{2 x} with a cation-deficient olivine crystal structure. Thus, both an extrinsic mode of hydrogen occurrence in olivine, such as nanometer-sized inclusions of OH^?-bearing magnesium silicates, and an intrinsic mode of hydrogen incorporation into the olivine structure, such as “hydrous olivine” in itself, were found. The data obtained here show that the OH absorption bands observed in olivine spectra at 3704(3717) and 3683(3688) cm^?1 can be unambiguously identified with serpentine; the band at 3677(3676) cm^?1 can be associated with talc. The absorption bands observed at 3591 and 3660?cm^?1 in olivine match those of the 10-Å phase at 3594, 3662 and 3666?cm^?1.     

The Gradenbach Observatory—monitoring deep-seated gravitational slope deformation by geodetic, hydrological, and seismological methods

The Gradenbach mass movement (GMM) is an example of DGSD (deep-seated gravitational slope deformation) in crystalline rocks of the Eastern Alps (12.85°E, 47.00°N). The main body of the GMM covers an area of 1.7 km² and its volume is about 120?×?10⁶ m³. A reconstruction of the deformation history yields a mean displacement of?～?22 m from 1962 to 2011. In 1965/66, 1975, 2001, and 2009 high sliding velocities, exceeding several meters per year, interrupt the quasi-stationary periods of slow movement (≤0.3 m/year). Since 1999 the displacement of the main body of the GMM has been observed by GPS. Time series of extensometer readings, precipitation, snow cover water equivalent, water discharge, and hydrostatic water level observed in boreholes were re-processed and are presented in this paper. Continuous recording of seismic activity by a seismic monitoring network at the GMM began in the summer of 2006. Deformation has been monitored since 2007 by an embedded strain rosette based on fiber optics technology and a local conventional geodetic deformation network. The velocity of the GMM could be modeled to a large extent by a quantitative relation to hydro-meteorological data. During the phase of high sliding velocity in spring 2009, the seismic activity in the area increased significantly. Several types of seismic events were identified with some of them preceding the acceleration of the main body by about 6 weeks. The potential inherent in the Gradenbach Observatory data to supply early warning and hazard estimation is discussed.     

Electron paramagnetic resonance and ENDOR studies of Cr3+ - Al3+ pairs in forsterite

The electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectrum of Cr³⁺ in synthetic crystals of forsterite consists primarily of lines of Cr³⁺ “isolated” at the M1 and M2 positions in a “perfect” crystal environment without local charge compensation. In addition it shows two nonequivalent superhyperfine-split sextets with different intensities which are due to strong interaction of the Cr³⁺ electron spin S (S=3/2) with an adjacent nuclear spin I(I=5/2). Electron nuclear double resonance (ENDOR) experiments revealed that the sextets result from Cr³⁺ (M1) - Al³⁺ and Cr³⁺ (M2) - Al³⁺ pairs, Al being located at adjacent tetrahedral Si sites. The g, D, A, and A′ tensor components of the Cr³⁺ - Al³⁺ pairs have been determined at room temperature. The values of the pairs are distinct although they are not very different from the corresponding data of “isolated” Cr³⁺. From the intensities of the EPR spectra the relative concentration of the Cr³⁺ - Al³⁺ pairs with respect to “isolated” Cr³⁺ has been estimated.     

New 40Ar/39Ar constraints for the “Grande Nappe”: The largest rhyolitic eruption from the Mont-Dore Massif (French Massif Central)

Since the 1960s, an early explosive activity in the Mont-Dore Massif is associated with a major pyroclastic rhyolitic eruption (5–7 km³) known as the “Grande Nappe” (GN). This event, linked to the formation of a 6-km-diameter cryptic caldera named “Haute Dordogne”, was before our investigation dated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar at 3.07 ± 0.04 Ma. Our new single-crystal laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates obtained on two outcrops of the GN (Rochefort-Montagne and Ludières) questioned several hypotheses made concerning this “landmark” event of the Mont-Dore Massif history. We demonstrate that: (1) the GN rhyolitic eruption has occurred much later than previously estimated (i.e. 2.77 ± 0.02–0.07 Ma full external uncertainties); (2) the correlation made between the Vendeix rhyolitic complexes (intra-caldera position) dated back to 2.74 ± 0.04 Ma and the GN is proposed; (3) xenocryst contamination could be very high (i.e. 70% for the Rochefort-Montagne GN outcrop) and explains the noticeable older age obtained previously; (4) a link between the GN eruption and the formation of a caldera is questionable; the hypothesis of a northward-oriented blast channeled eastward toward the paleo-Allier River is thus proposed.     

Predictive Power Evaluation of a Physically Based Model for Shallow Landslides in the Area of Oltrepò Pavese,Northern Italy

The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km² wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F _S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena.