Can the Solar Cycle Amplitude Be Predicted Using the Preceding Solar Cycle Length?

In this work, the evolution of the relationship between Solar Cycle Length of solar cycle n (SCL _n ) and Solar Cycle Amplitude of the solar cycle n+1 (SCA _n+1) is studied by using the R _Z and R _G sunspot numbers. We conclude that this relationship is only strongly significant in a statistical sense during the first half of the historical record of R _Z sunspot number whereas it is considerably less significant for the R _G sunspot number. In this sense we assert that these simple lagged relationships should be avoided as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.     

Combined Analysis of Solar Neutrino and Solar Irradiance Data: Further Evidence for Variability of the Solar Neutrino Flux and Its Implications Concerning the Solar Core

A search for any particular feature in any single solar neutrino dataset is unlikely to establish variability of the solar neutrino flux since the count rates are very low. It helps to combine datasets, and in this article we examine data from both the Homestake and GALLEX experiments. These show evidence of modulation with a frequency of 11.85 year⁻¹, which could be indicative of rotational modulation originating in the solar core. We find that precisely the same frequency is prominent in power spectrum analyses of the ACRIM irradiance data for both the Homestake and GALLEX time intervals. These results suggest that the solar core is inhomogeneous and rotates with a sidereal frequency of 12.85 year⁻¹. From Monte Carlo calculations, it is found that the probability that the neutrino data would by chance match the irradiance data in this way is only 2 parts in 10 000. This rotation rate is significantly lower than that of the inner radiative zone (13.97 year⁻¹) as recently inferred from analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, suggesting that there may be a second, inner tachocline separating the core from the radiative zone. This opens up the possibility that there may be an inner dynamo that could produce a strong internal magnetic field and a second solar cycle.     

Which are the dwarfs in the Solar System?

The International Astronomical Union recently adopted a new definition of planets in our Solar System. A new category of objects was introduced: a “dwarf planet.” This is “a celestial body that has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape and has not cleared the neighborhood around its orbit.” In a footnote, the resolution says: “An IAU process will be established to assign borderline objects into either “dwarf planet” and other categories." In order to contribute to the establishment of this classification procedure, we analyze the problem of the minimum mass required to become a “dwarf planet,” either from the theoretical and the observational perspective. We propose classification criteria for “dwarf planets” based on the available information on the shape and size of asteroids and TNOs, principally the direct or indirect estimates of the diameter and the estimate of the shapes from the lightcurves. We compile the available observational data on large asteroids and TNOs. According to our classification scheme there is only one rocky “dwarf planet” and 12 icy “dwarf planets” among the already discovered objects.     

The “FIP Effect” and the Origins of Solar Energetic Particles and of the Solar Wind

We find that the element abundances in solar energetic particles (SEPs) and in the slow solar wind (SSW), relative to those in the photosphere, show different patterns as a function of the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements. Generally, the SEP and SSW abundances reflect abundance samples of the solar corona, where low-FIP elements, ionized in the chromosphere, are more efficiently conveyed upward to the corona than high-FIP elements that are initially neutral atoms. Abundances of the elements, especially C, P, and S, show a crossover from low to high FIP at \({\approx}\,10~\mbox{eV}\) in the SEPs but \({\approx}\,14~\mbox{eV}\) for the solar wind. Naively, this seems to suggest cooler plasma from sunspots beneath active regions. More likely, if the ponderomotive force of Alfvén waves preferentially conveys low-FIP ions into the corona, the source plasma that eventually will be shock-accelerated as SEPs originates in magnetic structures where Alfvén waves resonate with the loop length on closed magnetic field lines. This concentrates FIP fractionation near the top of the chromosphere. Meanwhile, the source of the SSW may lie near the base of diverging open-field lines surrounding, but outside of, active regions, where such resonance does not exist, allowing fractionation throughout the chromosphere. We also find that energetic particles accelerated from the solar wind itself by shock waves at corotating interaction regions, generally beyond 1 AU, confirm the FIP pattern of the solar wind.     

Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.     

Solar Magnetism and the Activity Telescope at HSOS

A new solar telescope system is described, which has been operating at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), since the end of 2005. This instrument, the Solar Magnetism and Activity Telescope (SMAT), comprises two telescopes which respectively make measurements of full solar disk vector magnetic field and Hα observation. The core of the full solar disk video vector magnetograph is a birefringent filter with 0.1  bandpass, installed in the tele-centric optical system of the telescope. We present some preliminary observational results of the full solar disk vector magnetograms and Hα filtergrams obtained with this telescope system.     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: I. Forecasting the Solar Wind Parameters

We analyze the relationship between the coronal hole (CH) area/position and physical characteristics of the associated corotating high-speed stream (HSS) in the solar wind at 1 AU. For the analysis we utilize the data in the period DOY 25 – 125 of 2005, characterized by a very low coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Distinct correlations between the daily averaged CH parameters and the solar wind characteristics are found, which allows us to forecast the solar wind velocity v, proton temperature T, proton density n, and magnetic field strength B, several days in advance in periods of low CME activity. The forecast is based on monitoring fractional areas A, covered by CHs in the meridional slices embracing the central meridian distance ranges [−40°,−20°], [−10°,10°], and [20°,40°]. On average, the peaks in the daily values of n, B, T, and v appear delayed by 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively, after the area A attains its maximum in the central-meridian slice. The peak values of the solar wind parameters are correlated to the peak values of A, which provides also forecasting of the peak values of n, B, T, and v. The most accurate prediction can be obtained for the solar wind velocity, for which the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values amounts to %. The forecast reliability is somewhat lower in the case of T, B, and n ( , 30, and 40%, respectively). The space weather implications are discussed, including the perspectives for advancing the real-time calculation of the Sun – Earth transit times of coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks, by including more realistic real-time estimates of the solar wind characteristics.     

A Change in the Solar He ii EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

Solar activity during 2007?–?2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He?ii spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15±6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008?–?2011. We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region’s global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He?ii EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.     

Organization of Energetic Particles by the Solar Wind Structure During the Declining to Minimum Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We investigate the organization of the low energy energetic particles (≤1 MeV) by solar wind structures, in particular corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections, during the declining-to-minimum phase of Solar Cycle 23 from Carrington rotation 1999 to 2088 (January 2003 to October 2009). Because CIR-associated particles are very prominent during the solar minimum, the unusually long solar minimum period of this current cycle provides an opportunity to examine the overall organization of CIR energetic particles for a much longer period than during any other minimum since the dawn of the Space Age. We find that the particle enhancements associated with CIRs this minimum period recurred for many solar rotations, up to 30 at times, due to several high-speed solar wind streams that persisted. However, very few significant CIR-related energetic particle enhancements were observed towards the end of our study period, reflecting the overall weak high-speed streams that occurred at this time. We also contrast the solar minimum observations with the declining phase when a number of solar energetic particle events occurred, producing a mixed particle population. In addition, we compare the observations from this minimum period with those from the previous solar cycle. One of the main differences we find is the shorter recurrence rate of the high-speed solar wind streams (～10 solar rotations) and the related CIR energetic particle enhancements for the Solar Cycle 22 minimum period. Overall our study provides insight into the coexistence of different populations of energetic particles, as well as an overview of the large-scale organization of the energetic particle populations approaching the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Algorithm Design and Test of the Solar Guide Telescope

The Solar Guide Telescope (SGT), an important solar attitude sensor of the SST (Space Solar Telescope, a space solar observing instrument being developed in China), can accurately produce pointing error signals of the SST for attitude control at high speed. We analyze in detail the error algorithm of the heliocentric coordinates and the edge judging of solar images. The measuring accuracy of ±0.5 arcsec of the SGT is verified by experiments on the tracking of the Sun and by testing a sun simulator. Some factors causing the pointing errors are examined.     

Trojans’ Odyssey: Unveiling the early history of the Solar System

In our present understanding of the Solar System, small bodies (asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, comets and TNOs) are the most direct remnants of the original building blocks that formed the planets. Jupiter Trojan and Hilda asteroids are small primitive bodies located beyond the ‘snow line’, around respectively the L₄ and L₅ Lagrange points of Jupiter at ～5.2?AU (Trojans) and in the 2:3 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter near 3.9?AU (Hildas). They are at the crux of several outstanding and still conflicting issues regarding the formation and evolution of the Solar System. They hold the potential to unlock the answers to fundamental questions about planetary migration, the late heavy bombardment, the formation of the Jovian system, the origin and evolution of trans-neptunian objects, and the delivery of water and organics to the inner planets. The proposed Trojans’ Odyssey mission is envisioned as a reconnaissance, multiple flyby mission aimed at visiting several objects, typically five Trojans and one Hilda. It will attempt exploring both large and small objects and sampling those with any known differences in photometric properties. The orbital strategy consists in a direct trajectory to one of the Trojan swarms. By carefully choosing the aphelion of the orbit (typically 5.3?AU), the trajectory will offer a long arc in the swarm thus maximizing the number of flybys. Initial gravity assists from Venus and Earth will help reducing the cruise time as well as the ΔV needed for injection thus offering enough capacity to navigate among Trojans. This solution further opens the unique possibility to flyby a Hilda asteroid when leaving the Trojan swarm. During the cruise phase, a Main Belt Asteroid could be targeted if requiring a modest ΔV. The specific science objectives of the mission will be best achieved with a payload that will perform high-resolution panchromatic and multispectral imaging, thermal-infrared imaging/ radiometry, near- and mid-infrared spectroscopy, and radio science/mass determination. The total mass of the payload amounts to 50?kg (including margins). The spacecraft is in the class of Mars-Express or a down-scaled version of Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter. It will have a dry mass of 1200?kg, a total mass at launch of 3070?kg and a ΔV capability of 700?m/s (after having reached the first Trojan) and can be launched by a Soyuz rocket. The mission operations concept (ground segment) and science operations are typical of a planetary mission as successfully implemented by ESA during, for instance, the recent flybys of Main Belt asteroids Steins and Lutetia.     

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 – 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 – 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

Can observations inside the Solar System reveal the gravitational properties of the quantum vacuum?

The understanding of the gravitational properties of the quantum vacuum might be the next scientific revolution. It was recently proposed that the quantum vacuum contains the virtual gravitational dipoles; we argue that this hypothesis might be tested within the Solar System. The key point is that the quantum vacuum (“enriched” with the gravitational dipoles) induces a retrograde precession of the perihelion. It is obvious that this phenomenon might eventually be revealed by more accurate studies of orbits of planets and orbits of the artificial Earth satellites. However, we suggest that potentially the best “laboratory” for the study of the gravitational properties of the quantum vacuum is the recently discovered dwarf planet Eris with its satellite named Dysnomia; the distance of nearly 100 AU from the Sun makes it the unique system in which the precession of the perihelion of Dysnomia (around Eris) is strongly dominated by the quantum vacuum.     

Refractory Metal Nuggets – Formation of the first condensates in the Solar Nebula

As gas flowed from the solar accretion disk or Solar Nebula onto the proto-Sun, magnetic pressure gradients in the solar magnetosphere and the inner Solar Nebula provided an environment where some of this infalling flow was diverted to produce a low pressure, high temperature, gaseous, “infall” atmosphere around the inner Solar Nebula. The pressure in this inner disk atmosphere was mainly dependant on the accretion flow rate onto the star. High flow rates implied relatively high pressures, which decreased over time as the accretion rate decreased.In the first hundred thousand years after the formation of the Solar Nebula, accretional flow gas pressures were high enough to create submicron-sized Refractory Metal Nuggets (RMNs) – the precursors to Calcium Aluminum Inclusions (CAIs). Optimal temperatures and pressures for RMN formation may have occurred between 20,000 and 100,000 years after the formation of the Solar Nebula. It is possible that conditions were conducive to RMN/CAI formation over an 80,000 year timescale. The “infall” atmosphere and the condensation of refractory particles within this atmosphere may be observable around the inner disks of other protostellar systems.The interaction of forces from magnetic fields with the radiation pressure from the proto-Sun and the inner solar accretion disk potentially produced an optical-magnetic trap above and below the inner Solar Nebula, which provided a relatively stable environment in which the RMNs/proto-CAIs could form and grow. These RMN formation sites only existed during accretion events from the proto-solar disk onto the proto-Sun. As such, the formation and growth time of a particular RMN was dependent on the timescale of its nascent accretion event.Observational evidence suggests that RMNs were the nucleation particles for CAIs. As a consequence, the observed bimodal distribution of ²⁶Al in CAIs, where some CAIs have ²⁶Al while others do not, is probably due to the injection ²⁶Al during the short CAI formation period, where ²⁶Al was not present when the first CAIs were formed.     

Information from the Kinematics of F and G Stars in the Solar Neighborhood

We have calculated the orbital parameters for 90 stars in Chen et al. and updated the kinematic data for stars in Edvardsson et al. by using the accurate Hipparcos parallaxes and proper motions, and recalculated the \\\\\\\\\\\\-element abundances in Edvardsson et al. in a way consistent with Chen et al. The two sets of data are combined in a study of stellar populations and characteristics of F & G stars in the solar neighborhood. We confirm the result of Chen et al. that a distinguishable group of stars may belong to the thick disk rather than the thin disk. The ages for the stars are determined using the theoretical isochrones of VandenBerg et al. The age-metallicity relation is investigated for different subgroups according to distance from the sun and galactic orbital parameters. It is found that a mixing of stars with different orbital parameters significantly affect the age-metallicity relation for the disk. Stars with orbits confined to the solar circle all have metallicities [Fe/H] > -0.3 irresp