我国气象服务效益评估综述

气象事业是科技型、基础性社会公益事业,气象服务是气象事业的出发点和归宿点。首先介绍了气象服务的概念,明确了气象服务在整个气象业务体系中的定位,并探讨了气象服务的经济属性。从多个学科的理论与方法的角度出发,系统的介绍了气象服务效益的主要评估方法和技术,同时介绍了我国目前气象服务效益评估的基本情况。最后,文章针对目前我国气象服务的现状,提出了一些建议。     

气象服务效益评价研究进展

气象服务是气象事业的出发点和归宿点,采用科学客观的方法开展气象服务效益的评价工作,有利于气象部门更好地改进和完善气象服务,促进气象事业的持续快速发展。本文从理论和方法应用的角度出发,系统地介绍了气象服务效益评价的国内外发展现状、理论基础和技术方法等,并对气象服务效益评价的未来发展趋势进行了展望。     

“十五”期间陕西农业气象服务的思考

1　转变观念 ,围绕支柱产业和市场需求开展农业气象服务和研究1 .1　气象服务是气象事业的立业之本气象工作者历来十分重视气象服务工作 ,6 0年代曾提出气象服务为纲 ,80年代提出气象服务是气象工作的出发点和归宿 ,90年代提出气象服务是气象事业的立业之本。气象事业在国民经济中的作用实际上是通过气象服务来体现的。要求我们既要紧密围绕国民经济的发展搞好气象服务这一主题不能变、不能偏 ,同时 ,又要随着社会经济的发展、市场经济的需求、产业结构的调整和支柱产业发展的需要来不断调整我们的服务思路、服务内容、服务方式和方法 ,以不…     

我国气象服务效益评估业务的现状与展望

气象服务是气象事业的出发点和归宿点,因而采用科学客观的方法开展气象服务效益的评估工作,有利于气象部门更好地改进和完善气象服务,促进气象事业的持续快速发展。本文介绍了我国气象服务效益评估业务的现状,并对气象服务效益评估业务的未来发展趋势进行了构想,指出规范化、常态化、人性化服务是未来气象服务效益评估业务的发展趋势。     

营造良好法制环境推动气象科学发展

气象事业关系国计民生,气象防灾减灾和公共气象服务是政府服务的重要内容,气象信息是生产生活不可或缺的重要信息。浙江省委、省政府历来高度重视气象事业的发展,把公共气象服务、气象防灾减灾、气象现代化等工作摆在经济社会发展的全局来谋划,认真贯彻实施“一法两条例”等有关法律法规,采取有效措施,落实各项要求。2010年以来,全省上下积极完善气象防灾减灾体系,大力加强公共气象服务,加快推进气象现代化建设,气象事业步入依法、科学的发展轨道。     

黔西南州气象科技服务发展分析

气象科技服务作为气象事业的重要组成部份,其发展的快慢与否直接影响到气象事业的健康发展。探索总结气象科技服务发展的趋势和方向,充分认识当前所面临的机遇和挑战,对于实现气象事业又好又快地发展有着重要的现实意义。本文通过对近四年来黔西南州气象科技服务工作的开展情况,统计分析各科技服务项目的总服务效益、服务成本,实际效益及所占比重等要素的变化情况,总结得出黔西南州未来气象科技服务的发展趋势和方向。     

后勤服务——气象工作的先行者

十一届三中全会的胜利召开,改革开放的春风吹遍了华夏大地,社会主义现代化建设蒸蒸日上,青海省气象后勤服务与保障工作随着我国气象事业的长足发展也取得了辉煌成就。三十年来,青海省气象后勤服务中心不断调整事业结构和完善运行机制,经过由小到大、由弱到强的发展,成为气象事业发展中一支强有力的保障队伍。对气象业务、改善职工工作生活条件、稳定和优化队伍结构起到     

中国的气象服务及其效益评估

气象事业是科技型、基础性社会公益事业,气象服务是气象事业的出发点和归宿点。首先分析了气象服务的概念,确立了气象服务的内涵与外延以及分类情况,明确了气象服务在整个气象业务体系中的定位,并探讨了气象服务的经济属性。从气象情报信息服务和气象预报信息服务的角度介绍了中国气象信息服务的情况。从人工影响天气技术、农业气象工程服务技术、雷电灾害防御技术介绍了中国气象工程服务及其技术的情况。从多个学科的理论与方法的角度出发,系统的介绍了气象服务效益的主要评估方法和技术,同时介绍了中国目前气象服务效益评估的基本情况。最后,文章针对目前中国气象服务的现状,提出了一些建议。     

关于新时期气象档案工作发展的思考

随着我国气象现代化建设的开展,气象档案工作呈现出新的特点。为了更好地发挥气象档案的资源优势和信息作用,本文针对气象档案工作面临的新形势、新情况、新变化和气象档案工作发展存在的主要问题,从理论、技术、服务等方面提出了创新是档案事业保持蓬勃发展的活力之源,是新时期气象档案工作发展的切入点。     

浅谈气象服务人员营销能力的培养

我国气象事业发展战略研究成果中，特别强调了气象对经济社会发展的服务职能。这给气象服务带来了巨大的发展空间。气象服务市场的发展需要从业人员具备较强的营销能力。引进营销理念、培养气象服务人员的营销能力是发展气象服务事业的必然要求。气象服务人员营销能力培养的主要任务是树立系统的营销观念，提高各种具体的营销能力。培养的方法主要是通过高效的培训。     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题

自地球形成至寒武纪将近40亿年（距今46亿～5.4亿年,通常称为前寒武纪）的气候演变是一个具有特殊难度和挑战性的研究领域,同时也是基础和前沿的研究领域。文章选择了前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题进行综述：大气演化、两次全球性的冰川期以及暗弱太阳问题。关于大气演化,本文首先描述了大气成分的演化历史,然后简述了影响大气成分演化的三个基本过程：大气逃逸、两次大气氧含量突然增加、碳酸盐-硅酸盐循环及其对气候系统的负反馈作用。两次全球性的冰川期分别发生在古元古代（距今24亿～21亿年）和新元古代（距今8亿～5.8亿年）,文章简述了其成因以及相关的气候模拟结果。暗弱太阳问题是地球历史气候演化的一个经典问题,论文简要地综述了一些最新的研究成果和观点。     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.