The 2003 earthquake swarm in Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland

During May 2003 a swarm of 16 earthquakes (M_L = 0.6–2.1) occurred at Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland. The activity lasted for three weeks, but additional two events were observed at the same location in October 2004. A comparison of the waveforms indicated that the source mechanisms and the hypocentres of the events were nearly identical.A relative earthquake location method was applied to better define the geometry of the cluster and to identify the fault plane associated with the earthquakes. The relocated earthquakes aligned along an ENE–WSW trending zone, with a lateral extent of about 1.0 km by 0.8 km. The relative location and the waveform-modelling of depth sensitive surface wave (Rg) and S-to-P converted body wave (sP) phases indicated that the events were unusually shallow, most likely occurring within the first 2 km of the surface. The revised historical earthquake data confirm that shallow swarm-type seismicity is characteristic to the area.The focal mechanism obtained as a composite solution of the five strongest events corresponds to dip-slip motion along a nearly vertical fault plane (strike = 250°, dip = 80°, rake = 90°). The dip and strike of this nodal plane as well as the relocated hypocentres coincide with an internal intrusion boundary of the Vyborg rapakivi batholith.The events occur under a compressive local stress field, which is explained by large gravitational potential energy differences and ridge-push forces. Pore-pressure changes caused by intrusion of ground water and/or radon gas into the fracture zones are suggested to govern the swarm-type earthquake activity.     

ULF geomagnetic anomalies of possible seismogenic origin observed at Teoloyucan station, México, in 1999–2001: Intermediate and short-time analysis

The analysis of ULF geomagnetic field measured at Teoloyucan station (Central Mexico, 11′35.735″ W, 19 44′45.100″ N, 2280 m height) is presented in an intermediate (± 15 days) and short time scale (the day of the EQ occurrence) in relation to 7 major earthquakes occurred in Mexico in 1999–2001. Local changes in the fractal dynamics of the magnetic field are found to be important: a pronounced fall of the fractal index is frequently observed prior to the main shock. The study of the ULF resonant structure recently discovered in the frequencies f_R1 = 10.2−11.1 mHz and f_R2 = 13.6−14.5 mHz reveals changes in their character probably related to the processes of the earthquakes preparation. The success of the observation of the mentioned anomalies (specially the fractal index decrease) strongly depends on how close is the station from the epicenter, and what is the magnitude of the earthquake.     

Inhomogeneous distribution of deep slow earthquake activity along the strike of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate

The spatial distribution of deep slow earthquake activity along the strike of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate in southwest Japan is investigated. These events usually occur simultaneously between the megathrust seismogenic zone and the deeper free-slip zone on the plate interface at depths of about 30 km. Deep low-frequency tremors are weak prolonged vibrations with dominant frequencies of 1.5–5 Hz, whereas low-frequency earthquakes correspond to isolated pulses included within the tremors. Deep very-low-frequency earthquakes have long-period (20 s) seismic signals, and short-term slow-slip events are crustal deformations lasting for several days. Slow earthquake activity is not spatially homogeneous but is separated into segments some of which are bounded by gaps in activity. The spatial distribution of each phase of slow earthquake activity is usually coincident, although there are some inconsistencies. Very-low-frequency earthquakes occur mainly at edges of segments. Low-frequency earthquakes corresponding to tremors of relatively large amplitude are concentrated at spots where tremors are densely distributed within segments. The separation of segments by gaps suggests large differences in stick-slip and stable sliding caused by frictional properties of the plate interface. Within each segment, variations in the spatial distribution of slow earthquakes reflected inhomogeneities corresponding to the characteristic scales of events.     

Elastic and inelastic triggering of earthquakes in the North Anatolian Fault zone

Deformation models used to explain the triggering mechanism often assume pure elastic behaviour for the crust and upper mantle. In reality however, the mantle and possibly the lower crust behave viscoelastically, particularly over longer time scales. Consequently, the stress field of an earthquake is in general time-dependent. In addition, if the elastic stress increase were enough to trigger a later earthquake, this triggered event should occur instantaneously and not many years after the triggering event. Hence, it is appropriate to include inelastic behaviour when analysing stress transfer and earthquake interaction.In this work, we analyse a sequence of 10 magnitude M_s > 6.5 events along the North Anatolian Fault between 1939 and 1999 to study the evolution of the regional Coulomb stress field. We investigate the triggering of these events by stress transfer, taking viscoelastic relaxation into account. We evaluate the contribution of elastic stress changes, of post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust and mantle, and of steady tectonic loading to the total Coulomb stress field. We analyse the evolution of stress in the region under study, as well as on the rupture surfaces of the considered events and their epicentres. We study the state of the Coulomb stress field before the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, as well as in the Marmara Sea region.In general, the Coulomb stress failure criterion offers a plausible explanation for the location of these events. However, we show that using a purely elastic model disregards an important part of the actual stress increase/decrease. In several cases, post-seismic relaxation effects are important and greater in magnitude than the stress changes due to steady tectonic loading. Consequently, viscoelastic relaxation should be considered in any study dealing with Coulomb stress changes.According to our study, and assuming that an important part of the rupture surface must be stressed for an earthquake to occur, the most likely value for the viscosity of the lower crust or mantle in this region is 5 · 10¹⁷–10¹⁸ Pa · s. Our results cannot rule out the possibility of other time-dependent processes involved in the triggering of the 1999 Düzce event. However, the stress increase due to viscoelastic relaxation brought 22% of the 1999 Düzce rupture area over the threshold value of Δσ_c ≥ 0.01 MPa (0.1 bar), and took the whole surface closer to failure by an average of 0.2 MPa. Finally, we argue that the Marmara Sea region is currently being loaded with positive Coulomb stresses at a much faster rate than would arise exclusively from steady tectonic loading on the North Anatolian Fault.     

岷江上游新磨村湖相沉积物粒度端元反演及其记录的构造和气候事件

应用沉积物粒度端元分析模型对岷江上游新磨村湖相沉积高分辨率粒度数据序列进行了反演,分离出2个端元。根据端元的频率分布曲线和沉积学分析,并结合岷江上游的地质构造背景,分析了各端元与研究区物源和古地震活动的对应关系。EM1为震间期的湖泊沉积,代表风力近源搬运的极细颗粒组分;EM2为极端灾变(地震等)期间的湖泊沉积,代表风力为主和部分水力近距离搬运的细颗粒组分。对新磨村剖面分离出的EM2百分含量与中值粒径、20~63μm、63~200μm粒径组分、磁化率值及地球化学比值(SiO2/Al2O3、TiO2/Al2O3、CaO/Al2O3、Sr/Al2O3、Rb/Sr,Na2O/Al2O3)进行对比分析,各指标的突变明显受粒度变化控制,指示可能的地震事件,进而识别出26次地震事件。为确定地震事件所代表的地震震级,基于震级与累积砂层厚度关系进行估算,共获得16次5~6级,5次6~7级,5次>7级地震。因此,采用粒度端元模拟不仅可以分离出不同的粒径组分和各组分百分含量,有效识别出不同动力组分和沉积动力环境,还可以较好地厘定出沉积记录的构造事件(地震等)等,更好地理解构造活动在地质、地貌演化中的作用。     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

吉林地区地电阻率震兆异常对比分析

对采用形态法、归一化变化速率法和各向异性度法提取到的吉林省内深源地震以及浅源地震前的地电阻率异常变化进行对比分析,结果表明:(1)震前地电阻率出现1~2年尺度中期异常,甚至短期异常,异常以负异常为主;(2)震前地电阻率原始月均值异常变化幅度1%,表明数字地电仪捕捉电信号灵敏度的提高,更与台址构造密不可分;(3)震前地电阻率出现异常变化,震后恢复到正常变化形态,反映出震前震中区地下应力的变化,震后区域构造应力场重新调整并逐渐恢复的过程。     

Can electromagnetic disturbances related to the recent great earthquakes be detected by satellite magnetometers?

On December 26, 2004 the world's fourth largest earthquake since 1900 and the largest since the 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska earthquake, occurred off the west coast of northern Sumatra with a magnitude of 9.3. On March 28, 2005 another event of magnitude 8.7 took place in the same region. The December 26, 2004 earthquake has prompted scientists to investigate possible electromagnetic signatures of this event, using ground magnetic observations. Iyemori et al. [Iyemori, T. et al., 2005. Geomagnetic pulsations caused by the Sumatra earthquake on December 26, 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20807, doi:10.1029/2005GL024083.] have suggested that a 3.6 min long geomagnetic pulsation, observed shortly after this event, was generated by the earthquake. They have speculated that a 30 s magnetic pulsation was also caused by the earthquake. Here for the first time, CHAMP satellite magnetic and electron density data are examined to find out if electromagnetic signatures which are possibly related to these recent megathrust earthquakes are observed in satellite magnetic data. We have shown that some specific features are observed after the two earthquakes, with periods of about 16 and 30 s. Our results favor an external source origin for the 30 s pulsation. Moreover, after more than 1 h, CHAMP magnetic data indicate the existence of a feature characterized by the same parameters (duration, amplitude, and frequency content), which could be associated with each earthquake, respectively. Further investigations are required in order to answer the question of whether these signals can be associated with earthquakes and to assign their possible usefulness with respect to earthquake development.     

Seismological monitoring on the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, derived from off Kushiro permanent cabled OBSs and land-based observations

Japan Marine Science and Technology Center installed a cabled geophysical observatory system off Kushiro, Hokkaido Island in July 1999. This observatory system comprises three ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs), two tsunami gauges, and a geophysical/geochemical monitoring system. 4 years and 2 months after the installation, a megathrust earthquake (the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, 26th September in Japan Standard Time (JST), M_JMA 8.0) occurred along a plate boundary underneath a forearc basin where the system is located. The system recorded clear unsaturated seismograms just at 28.6 km from the epicenter. This paper demonstrates advantages brought by the cabled observatory to record the megathrust earthquake showing how earthquake detectability is improved dramatically combining permanent OBS and land-based observations around the region, and importance of the in situ monitoring on the seismogenic zone. In the present study, processing OBSs and land-based network together, and comparing magnitudes of common observed earthquakes with national authorized network, event detection level improved down to M 1.5, which is much lower than the previously designed as down to M  2. Comparing detection level before and after installing OBSs, we found dramatic improvement of the earthquake detection level in the interesting region. Real-time continuous observations of microearthquakes since 1999 have brought us tremendous findings. First, a seismic quiescence started about 10 days before the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake. Second, aftershock distribution is not uniform over the focal area and can be divided into several sub-regions, which might indicate an existence of several asperities. We think that the geophysical observations helped to understand the initiation process of the rupture of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake and that observations including seismological, geodynamic, hydrogeological, and the other multidisciplinary observations would provide a clue to future understanding of seismogenic processes at subduction zones.     

Quasi-static slip on the plate boundary associated with the 2003 M8.0 Tokachi-oki and 2004 M7.1 off-Kushiro earthquakes, Japan

We analyzed small repeating earthquakes recorded over a 13-year period and GPS data recorded over an 8-month period to estimate interplate quasi-static slip associated with the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M8.0) and the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake (M7.1). The repeating-earthquake analysis revealed that the slip rate near the source region of the Tokachi-oki earthquake was relatively low (< 5 cm/year) prior to the earthquake; however, in the last 3 years leading up to the event, a minor acceleration in slip occurred upon the deeper extension of the coseismic slip area of the earthquake. Repeating-earthquake and GPS data indicate that large amounts of afterslip occurred around the rupture area following the earthquake; the afterslip mainly propagated to the east of the coseismic slip area. We also infer that the occurrence of the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake, located about 100 km northeast of the epicenter of the Tokachi-oki earthquake, was advanced by the afterslip associated with the Tokachi-oki earthquake.     

Tomographic image of crustal structures across the Chelungpu fault: Is the seismogenic layer structure- or depth-dependent?

In 1999, a large earthquake (M_w = 7.6) occurred along the Chelungpu fault in the fold-and-thrust belt of western Taiwan. To shed more light on the subsurface structures and the seismogenic layers, three-dimensional velocity structures were inverted by using the travel times of both P- and S-waves from 2391 aftershocks recorded by the Central Weather Bureau during the 15 months that followed. From tomography, a typical image of the large-scale thrusting structures in the upper crust across the Chelungpu fault was obtained. In general, high velocities beneath the Western Foothills and Central Ranges are separated from low velocities beneath the Coastal Plain by an east-dipping boundary that is roughly consistent with the Chelungpu fault on the surface. The contrast in velocity on either side of the Chelungpu fault is indicative of about a 7- to 9-km vertical offset in the upper crust. The relocated hypocenter for the Chi-Chi earthquake shifts by 2.2 km toward the northwest, and its focal depth decreases by 0.7 km. A plot of focal depths versus rock velocities where the aftershocks occurred shows earthquakes are more inclined to occur in rock with a velocity of around 5.6 km/s. This strongly suggests the seismogenic layer in the fold-and-thrust belt of Taiwan is more structure-dependent than depth-dependent.     

Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.     

Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquakes

Our analysis of the continuous outgoing long wave earth radiation (OLR) indicates anomalous variations prior to a number of medium to large earthquakes. The most recent analysis of OLR is from the M9.0 Sumatra Andaman Islands mega trust event. We compared the reference fields for December 2001 to 2004 and found OLR anomalous values, > 80 W/m², (2σ) within the epicentral area on Dec 21, 2004, 5 days before the event. We used the NOAA/IR daily (one degree) and monthly (two and half degree) gridded data to differentiate between the global and seasonal variability and the transient local anomalies. The cause of such anomalies is not fully understood; one possible explanation is the existence of thermal outgoing radiation as a result of near ground air ionization and latent heat change due to change of air humidity and temperature. This phenomenon is hypothesized to be part of a relationship between tectonic stresses, electrochemical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and increasing mid IR flux, all part of a family of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena related to earthquake activity. The time scale of the observed variations is a few weeks before the onset of the seismic event. In comparison with several years of data, the observed time-series preceding the earthquake had unusually high OLR. The OLR anomaly corresponds to a large area of ground coverage and coincides with the main epicentral zone. The significance of these observations is explored using data from most recent East Asian earthquake swarm of December 2004 and three other earthquakes.     

Local seismic array observations at north Evoikos, central Greece, delineate crustal deformation between the North Aegean Trough and Corinthiakos Rift

In order to better constrain and define the microseismic activity at the north Evoikos Gulf and its surrounding area we deployed an onshore/offshore seismic array consisting of 31 three-component seismic digital stations. The array was active from 30 June to 24 October 2003, and covered an area of 2500 km². We located more than 2000 seismic events ranging from 0.7 to 4.5 M_L by using six stations as a minimum in order to define the foci parameters. Recorded seismicity delineated three major zones of deformation: from south to north, the Eretria–Parnis–eastern Corinthiakos zone, the Psachna–Viotia zone, and the Northern Sporades–North Evia–Bralos zone. Alignments of the recorded seismicity follow the tectonic trends and their orientation in the above zones. The whole area accommodates the stress field between the North Aegean Trough and the Corinthiakos Gulf. Rate of deformation intensifies from north to south, as revealed also by historical and instrumental seismicity. The successive change of orientation between the two stress fields fragments the crust in relatively small units and the fault systems developed do not permit the generation of major earthquakes in the north Evoikos area and its immediate vicinity. This is also supported by the instrumental seismicity of the last century. Larger events reported in historical times are probably overestimated.Most seismic activity is crustal. Subcrustal events were recorded mainly below the Lichades area and are interpreted as the consequence of the subduction of the Ionian oceanic lithosphere below the Hellenides. The Lichades volcano is the most northern end of the Hellenic volcanic arc.At present the highest seismic activity is associated with the Psachna region of north Evia that has been continuously active since 2001. Considering, however, the development of the seismic activity during the last decade, there has been a sequence of large events, i.e., Parnis in 1999, Skyros in 2001 and Psachna in 2001–2003. This demonstrates the fact that the tectonic deformation in all this area is intense and important for the accommodation of the stress field of the North Aegean Trough to that of the Corinthiakos Rift.     

Rupture length and velocity for earthquakes in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge from directivity effect in body and surface waves

The dimensions and rupture velocities of four earthquakes, two in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and two in Iceland with strike–slip mechanisms and magnitudes (M_w) between 6.2 and 6.8 were studied using the directivity effects of Rayleigh and body waves. For Rayleigh waves we used the directivity function for different pairs of stations and for body waves the waveforms of P and SH waves corresponding to a simple extended line source. We have found that three have very shallow depths about 3 km and one 8 km, fault lengths between 12 km and 21 km, and a low rupture velocity of about 1.5 km/s to 2.0 km/s which supports the idea of the presence of slow earthquakes in transform faults.     

Background seismicity in the Central Apennines of Italy: The Abruzzo region case study

We investigate background seismic activity of the Abruzzo region, a 5000 km² area located within the Central Apennines of Italy, where in the past 600 years at least 5 large earthquakes (I = XI–X) have occurred.Between April 2003 and September 2004, a dense temporary seismic network composed of 30 digital three-component seismic stations recorded 850 earthquakes with 0.9 < M_L < 3.7. We present earthquake locations and focal mechanisms obtained by standard procedures and an optimized velocity model computed with a search technique based on genetic algorithms.The seismicity occurs at a low and constant rate of  2.6 e− 04 events/daykm² and is sparsely distributed within the first 15 km of the crust. Minor increases in the seismicity rate are related to the occurrence of small and localised seismic sequences that occur at the tip of major active normal faults along secondary structures.We observe that during the 16 months of study period, the Fucino fault system responsible for the 1915 Fucino earthquake (M_S = 7.0), and the major normal faults of the area, did not produce significant seismic activity.Fault plane solutions evaluated using P-wave polarity data show the predominance of normal faulting mechanisms ( 55%) with NE-trending direction of extension coherent with the regional stress field active in this sector of the Apennines. Around 27% of the focal solutions have pure strike–slip mechanisms and the rest shows transtensional faulting mechanisms that mainly characterise the kinematics of the secondary structures activated by the small sequences.We hypothesize that the largest known NW-trending normal faults are presently locked and we propose that in the case of activation, the secondary structures located at their tips may act as transfer faults accommodating a minor part of the extensional deformation with strike–slip motion.     

The Yenice–Gönen active fault (NW Turkey): Active tectonics and palaeoseismology

The Yenice–Gönen Fault (YGF) is one of the most important active tectonic structures in the Biga peninsula. On March 18, 1953, a destructive earthquake (M_w = 7.2) occurred on the YGF, which is considered to be a part of the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). A 70 km-long dextral surface rupture formed during the Yenice–Gönen Earthquake (YGE).In this study, structural and palaeoseismological features of the YGF have been investigated. The YGF surface ruptures have been mapped and three trenches were excavated at Muratlar, Karaköy and Seyvan sites.According to the palaeoseismic interpretation and the results of ¹⁴C AMS dating, Seyvan trench shows that an earthquake of palaeoseismic age ca. 620 AD ruptured a different strand of the 1953 fault, producing rather significant surface rupture displacement, while there are indications that at least two older events occurred during the past millennia. Another set of trenches excavated near Gönen town (Muratlar village) revealed extensive liquefaction not only during the 1953 event, but also during a previous earthquake, dated at 1440 AD. The Karaköy trench shows no indications of recent reactivations.Based on the trenching results, we estimate a recurrence interval of 660 ± 160 years for large morphogenic earthquakes, creating linear surface ruptures. The maximum reported displacement during the 1953 earthquake was 4.2 m. Taking into account the palaeoseismologically determined earthquake recurrence interval and maximum displacement, slip-rate of the YGF has been calculated to be 6.3 mm/a, which is consistent with present-day velocities determined by GPS measurements. According to the geological investigations, cumulative displacement of the YGF is 2.3 km. This palaeoseismological study contributes to model the behaviour of large seismogenic faults in the Biga Peninsula.     

Seismotectonics of the Nepal Himalaya from a local seismic network

The National Seismological Network of Nepal consists of 17 short period seismic stations operated since 1994. It provides an exceptional view of the microseismic activity over nearly one third of the Himalayan arc, including the only segment, between longitudes 78°E and 85°E, that has not produced any M>8 earthquakes over the last century. It shows a belt of seismicity that follows approximately the front of the Higher Himalaya with most of the seismic moment being released at depths between 10 and 20 km. This belt of seismicity is interpreted to reflect interseismic stress accumulation in the upper crust associated with creep in the lower crust beneath the Higher Himalaya. The seismic activity is more intense around 82°E in Far-Western Nepal and around 87°E in Eastern Nepal. Western Nepal, between 82.5 and 85°E, is characterized by a particularly low level of seismic activity. We propose that these lateral variations are related to segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Fault. The major junctions between the different segments would thus lie at about 87°E and 82°E with possibly an intermediate one at about 85°E. These junctions seem to coincide with some of the active normal faults in Southern Tibet. Lateral variation of seismic activity is also found to correlate with lateral variations of geological structures suggesting that segmentation is a long-lived feature. We infer four 250–400 km long segments that could produce earthquakes comparable to the M=8.4 Bihar–Nepal earthquake that struck eastern Nepal in 1934. Assuming the model of the characteristic earthquake, the recurrence interval between two such earthquakes on a given segment is between 130 and 260 years.     

Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS) and well water level response in the Koyna–Warna region, India

Water level fluctuations in twenty-one observation wells have been monitored for the last 10 years around the seismically active Koyna–Warna region, western India where earthquakes continue to occur even after four decades of the initiation of the seismic activity in the region. Fourteen of the observation wells act as volume strain meters as their water levels show earth tidal signals. Our analysis suggests three types of response of the well water levels to seismo-tectonic effects, i) one to local earthquakes, ii) to regional and teleseismic events, and iii) to local fluctuations in rock strain on regional scale. We observed five cases of co-seismic step-like well water level changes, of the order of few centimeters in amplitude, related to earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.2. All these earthquakes occurred within the network of wells drilled for the study and within 25 km distance of the recording wells. In three cases, drop in well levels preceded co-seismic step-like increases, which may be of premonitory nature. The second type of response is observed to be due to the passing of seismic waves from regional and teleseismic earthquakes like the M 7.7 Bhuj event on January 26, 2001 and the M 9.3 December 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. The third type is a well level anomaly of centimeter amplitude coherently occurring in several wells. The anomalies are similar in shape and last for several hours to days.From our studies we conclude that the wells in the network appear to respond to regional strain variations and transient changes due to distant earthquakes. The two factors which are important to co-seismic steps due to local earthquakes are the magnitude and epicentral distance. From the limited number of events we found that all local earthquakes exceeding M ≥ 4.3 have produced co-seismic changes. No such changes were observed for earthquakes below this magnitude threshold.     

Simulation of Tsaoling landslide, Taiwan, based on Saint Venant equations over general topography

The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake triggered the catastrophic Tsaoling landslide in Taiwan. The geomorphological change measured from the data of the 1989 and 2000 aerial photos reveals that the scar and deposit volumes are about 0.126 km³ and 0.15 km³ respectively. The debris material ran over a distance of 1.6 km with 500 m descent in elevation. In this paper, we use the continuum model of hydraulic flow, SHALTOP^2D, based on the equations of Bouchut and Westdickenberg to simulate numerically the landslide dynamics. When the mass is moving, the flow is assumed hydrostatic with a basal Coulomb friction. The best fit is obtained using the basal friction angle equal to 6°, the only parameter of the simulation, uniformly applied in the calculation domain. The landslide front reaches the Chinshui river valley, the foothill of the slope, within only about 25 s after initiation and the motion settles in about 113 s. The maximum speed is estimated 75 m/s. The spreading of the deposit agrees well with the field measurement.