Optimal capital scaling: a new feasibility for small scale mining

Summary The historical trend in mine development has been the adoption of larger and more capital-intensive methods of production. Such methods have profited from the relatively low costs of investment capital and the reduction in unit costs afforded by technical economies of scale. More recently, rising real rates of interest have increased the investment costs of these capital-intensive mining ventures, amplifying their inherent financial diseconomies of scale and decreasing their economic viability.This paper used an economic framework to analyse the effects of rising rates of interest on the optimal level of capital investment and ultimate scale of operation. The conclusion suggests that rising real rates of interest can cause financial diseconomies to dominate the technical economies of scale. Under such circumstances, those mineral deposits more amenable to smaller scales of mining will prove economically superior to larger scaled operations.     

Combining Knowledge from Diverse Sources: An Alternative to Traditional Data Independence Hypotheses

Consider the assessment of any unknown event A through its conditional probability P(A | B,C) given two data events B, C of different sources. Each event could involve many locations jointly, but the two data events are assumed such that the probabilities P(A | B) and P(A | C) can be evaluated. The challenge is to recombine these two partially conditioned probabilities into a model for P(A | B,C) without having to assume independence of the two data events B and C. The probability P(A | B,C) is then used for estimation or simulation of the event A. In presence of actual data dependence, the combination algorithm provided by the traditional conditional independence hypothesis is shown to be nonrobust leading to various inconsistencies. An alternative based on a permanence of updating ratios is proposed, which guarantees all limit conditions even in presence of complex data interdependence. The resulting recombination formula is extended to any number n of data events and a paradigm is offered to introduce formal data interdependence.     

An empirical assessment and illustration of some multivariate morphometric techniques

An artificial data set is used to illustrate the morphologic properties of some common multivariate techniques and consideration of three common situations. The first concerns a sample showing no obvious groupings. In this situation principal components (or coordinates) and factor analyses give a logical ordination of form variation; cluster analysis produces sizedominated groups. The second situation considers an homogeneous sample where size and shape have important implications. Principal components are tested for association with size and shape, both of which can be isolated if isometry exists; if allometry is present, isolation of shape is possible only by size elimination, e.g., conversion to ratios. The third situation examines a sample of unknown groupings in which shape variation is the only interest. Aside from ratios, two other methods which produce shape-dominant clusters are assessed. Some of the options available in cluster analysis are also examined.     

Calculation of head difference at two sides of a cut-off barrier during excavation dewatering

This paper proposed a series of simple equations to calculate the head difference at the two sides of waterproof curtain. The barrier effect of waterproof curtain is considered from two situations with respect to without barrier case: (i) groundwater head difference below the barrier and (ii) groundwater head difference by convergence into the opening. The solution for the first situation can be derived from hydraulic analyses and the second situation can be obtained using a numerical analysis. The final groundwater head difference is the sum of these two situation according to the superposition principal. In the proposed equations, the head difference is expressed as a function of the inserted depth of the barrier into confined aquifer, the ratio of the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, the thickness of the aquifer, and hydraulic gradient under normal conditions. Finally, the proposed equation was applied to a field case to verify the validity of the proposed approach. Compared with the field data, the results show that the proposed method is reasonable.     

DRASTIC模型在地下水水源地安全性评价中的应用

地下水水源地是当今社会经济发展和生活的主要水源,水源地安全性评价具有十分重要的意义。DRASTIC法是国际上关于水源地脆弱性评价较为成功的一种方法,它较全面地考虑了与水源地脆弱性有关的各种因素,但鉴于水源地水文地质条件复杂程度、研究精度不一,评价结果往往与实际不符,对水源地安全性评价因子的选取和赋予的内涵上应因地而异。该文依托山东省主要城市饮用水安全保证调查评价项目,在DRASTIC法研究的基础上,将评价因子赋予新的内涵,使之更加符合山东省水源地的实际,并对城市地下饮用水水源地安全性作出评价。     

Sources of uncertainty in liquefaction triggering procedures

Uncertainties in observed data and in processing field and laboratory tests are major concerns. Assigning reasonable coefficients of variation to the parameters in the conventional analyses indicates that a site with deterministic factors of safety of 1.5 can actually have liquefaction triggering probability above 20%. About a third of the variance comes from uncertainty in the load, which is independent of the resistance. Researchers have traditionally presented the results of case studies in the form of charts showing instances in which liquefaction did and did not occur and have developed relations to separate the two. Although the original researchers developed the separations informally, recent work has applied statistical methods. These give the sampling distributions of the observed data rather than the probability of triggering given the data. Researchers have addressed this issue using Bayesian methods, adopting non-informative priors. Published curves of liquefaction probabilities can be interpreted as likelihood ratios. Other independent work demonstrates that geological, meteorological, and historical data can be used to develop prior probabilities, so it may not be necessary to assume a non-informative prior. The actual prior can then be combined with the likelihood ratios to provide rational probabilities of liquefaction. We recommend that researchers publish their likelihood ratios and allow engineers faced with particular sites to use those to update their own priors.     

工业用水优化配置模型研究

探讨了工业部门内部水资源优化配置理论与方法，建立了水资源优化配置经济效益模型。在此基础上，深入研究了经济效益、社会效益、环境效益、水资源的可持续利用及其与国民经济、社会的协调发展等因素对水资源优化配置的影响。通过对上述影响因素的分析，给出了工业内部各行业综合影响系数的计算公式，建立了水资源优化配置综合效益数学模型。以山东省高密市为例，在收集分析了各行业的用水量、产值、利税等基本资料的基础上，以每个行业的历史用水量为样本，采用数理统计的方法推求出行业需水量上、下限，并利用综合效益模型，以1989年7月这一最枯月份为例，对工业内部各行业进行水资源重分配，结果比较符合实际情况。     

渤海低渗油田定向井井身结构优化

渤海25油田沙河街组低渗储层地层压力系统复杂,一期开发时采用渤海常规井身结构,但是作业复杂情况频发,工期较长,导致成本高,整体经济效益较差。通过对地质油藏、地层特点做深入研究分析,优化出一套φ355.6 mm井眼×φ273.1 mm套管 φ241.3 mm井眼×φ177.8 mm套管 φ152.4 mm井眼×φ114.3 mm尾管的井身结构及其配套提速技术。通过在2口井的应用试验,取得了较好的效果,2口井平均井深3607.5 m,平均钻井周期19.32天,钻井周期共计比基本设计节余5.37天,钻井时效比基本设计提高24%,同时小井眼钻井所使用的器材及材料费用相应减少,而且投产后产量较好,经济效益显著,具有广阔的应用前景。     

影响瑞利波在矿井中探测精度的因素

瑞利波可对煤矿井下进行全方位探测, 具有简便、快速、应用范围广的优点。依据瞬态瑞利波井下探测原理, 对影响探测精度的因素进行了分析。结合矿井探测的应用情况, 提出在进行井下瑞利波探测中应综合考虑各个因素, 依据实际情况来确定道间距、偏移距、采样率、放大增益、锤击次数和测线布置等, 并选择合理的采集窗口。      

From modelling to experiment

Mathematical models applied to urban and regional planning have been widely developed during the sixties. Since that time the scientific and technologic developments have deeply transformed the field of spatial modelling. There has been a reaction against the idea that reality could be reduced to deterministic models. The paradigms of complexity, chaos, self-organisation, fractal geometry have made obvious the unpredictability of complex socio-economic systems. At the same time the progress of computation has led to the substitution of simulation methods to analytic solutions of mathematical models. In such a context, models are loosing in generality and reproducibility what they earn in adaptation to empirical situations. An important challenge is also to confirm the pertinence and specificity of the geographical approach. In that respect the spatial analysis programs must prove the evidence of a common methodology dealing either with physical or human and economic domain. We are working, for instance, on cellular automata programs applied to the historical evolution of an urban space and also to the run-off process in an elementary basin. The spatial structure of the models may be slightly different: rectangular or hexagonal tessellations in the “Human Geography” program, TIN structure, closer to the physical reality, in the other. The relations between the cells may also differ: they are often defined by a distance matrix for the socio-economic models, but a contiguity matrix is of course needed for the streaming process. But, beyond these technical differences, it appears that the geographical programs are developed on a macro-level, that is on aggregate statistical units. The elementary particle is always (or should be for a geographer...) a material, spatial unit, unlike the drop of water of the hydrologists, or the individual “agents” of the sociologists' multi-agents systems. The difference between the micro and macro level is not a question of scale, but a difference of logic. The simulation approach has a requisite, which is a need of systematic validation by a permanent comparison with the actual situation, but the objective is not prediction. The scientific concern is, before all, a precise understanding of the past and recent evolutions, more than a forecasting, which escapes to the specific field of scientific research. What is scientific is what can be measured. The possible prediction may rely on the scientific research, but belongs strictly to the domain of intellectual and personal thinking. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Measuring association in link-node problems

In this paper we have attempted to pose a methodological problem, and to provide answers to some fundamental measurement problems in research. In the search for the regularities which are thought to underlie the phenomena we study, geographers and others have often had recourse to Graph Theory to represent certain situations. Once some pattern of interaction can be depicted by using a group of points (nodes) joined by lines (links or edges), interest is often centered around the degree of correpondence between two graph-theoretic representations of empirical evidence. We have suggested methods for answering the question: are the link patterns for the two graphs so similar that they could not reasonably have arisen by chance? The approach to the solutions are based on probability theory and the properties of certain statistical distributions — the binomial, the hypergeometric, the hypergeometric?onominal and other combinations. In each case we have provided a rationale for the suggested solution as well as tables and computational procedures. The examples have been chosen from a wide variety of situations, for graph-theoretic representations are found in many fields of investigation.     

Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam

Migration is frequently portrayed as a negative force in its relationship with economic and social development. This negative perception is exhibited through describing population movements as either ‘forced’ (e.g. political and environmental refugees) or ‘voluntary’ movements (e.g. economic and uninhibited relocation). This paper examines the limitations of this conceptual dualism. It points out that the dualistic approach, widely used in the context of developing countries, simplifies a highly complex phenomenon by ignoring its essential heterogeneity and spatial and temporal dynamics. As such, it is limited in explaining and understanding the globally diversified, historically and politically contextualised situations. Focusing on the migratory experiences of contemporary Vietnam, the study identifies major patterns and trends of population mobility in the country in the past fifty years. It shows that despite the state’s continued attempts to reshape the spatial distribution of population over recent historical periods, the policy outcomes with respect to population mobility have been swayed as much by individuals and their families in pursuit of their own aspirations and livelihoods as by state plans. The Vietnam case has provided evidence of a much more complicated relationship between migration and livelihoods than the conceptual dichotomy assumes, and the opportunity for a richer set of policy options. We argue that the evidence from Vietnam, and elsewhere, warrants an integrated approach to studying migration, combining analysis at the macro- and micro-levels with the nexus lying at the critical decision-making point of the individual or household.     

Ending groundwater overdraft in hydrologic-economic systems

Groundwater overdraft occurs when extraction exceeds both natural and induced aquifer recharge over long periods. While ultimately unsustainable and invariably having detrimental effects, overdrafting aquifers is common and may be temporarily beneficial within a long-term water management strategy. Once a region chooses to end overdrafting, water management must change if increased water scarcity is to be avoided. Integrated water-management models allow aquifers and overdraft to be analyzed as part of a regional water-supply system. Incorporating economics into the model establishes a framework for evaluating the costs and effects of groundwater management actions on the entire system. This economic-engineering approach is applied in a case study of the Tulare Basin in California, USA, where previous economic studies showed optimal pumping depths have been reached. A hydro-economic optimization model is used to study the economic effects and water management actions that accompany ending overdraft. Results show that when overdraft is prohibited, groundwater banking using conjunctive-use infrastructure built between 1990 and 2005 largely annuls the cost of not overdrafting. The integrated economic-engineering approach quantifies effects of groundwater policies on complex regional water-resource systems and suggests promising strategies for reducing the economic costs of ending aquifer overexploitation.     

Algorithmic techniques of identifying discriminative ocean areas in oceanology problems

A problem of locating and comprehensively investigating ocean areas that exercise a significant influence over the migration dynamics of fishing ranks among important problems of fisheries oceanology. Among all the environment factors affecting various fishery situations, factors should be chosen that are constantly logged on large water areas for a long time comparable with fishery observation time. As described in a number of works, the most suitable information for these purposes is data on the distribution of surface temperature fields. The problem of locating discriminative areas can then be stated as follows. For a particular fishery situation (e.g., for the period of maximum catch in fishing season), temperature values or thermostructural features should be singled out that are suitable to define the situation, using hydrological charts of surface temperature fields. Correlating the feature with the areas where they were observed, we will obtain discriminative areas. The important problem is then to develop techniques and means for algorithmically identifying areas. This relates to a vast volume of information and complex structure. Logical-mathematical models of locating discriminative areas are being developed at the Pacific Oceanological Institute for some years. These models are to be for forecasting fishery situations in the NW Pacific. Techniques for representing isotherm fields in a computer have been developed. Formal operations of comparing the fields have been proposed which aid in distinguishing significant differences in their structure. A software for analyzing isotherm fields has been developed based on threshold logic models. This approach allows one not only to identify discriminative areas for relatively stable fishery situations but also to trace their dynamics. This has been achieved due to multiple-alternative computations and the presentations of data obtained in the form suitable for their interpretation. Some components of proposed models have been used in the system of short-term forecasting saira and sardine fishery in the South-Kuril area.     

A techno-economic model for optimum regeneration of surface mined land

The recent global scenario in the mineral sector may be characterized by rising competitiveness, increasing production costs and a slump in market price. This has pushed the mineral sector in general and that in the developing countries in particular to a situation where the industry has a limited capacity to sustain unproductive costs. This, more often than not, results in a situation where the industry fails to ensure environmental safeguards during and after mineral extraction. The situation is conspicuous in the Indian coal mining industry where more than 73% production comes from surface operations. India has an ambitious power augmentation projection for the coming 10 years. A phenomenal increase in coal production is proposed from the power grade coalfields in India. One of the most likely fall-outs of land degradation due to mining in these areas would be significant reduction of agricultural and other important land-uses. Currently, backfilling costs are perceived as prohibitive and abandonment of land is the easy way out. This study attempts to provide mine planners with a mathematical model that distributes generated overburden at defined disposal options while ensuring maximization of backfilled land area at minimum direct and economic costs. Optimization has been accomplished by linear programming (LP) for optimum distribution of each year’s generated overburden. Previous year’s disposal quantity outputs are processed as one set of the inputs to the LP model for generation of current year’s disposal output. From various geo-mining inputs, site constants of the LP constraints are calculated. Arrived value of economic vectors, which guide the programming statement, decides the optimal overburden distribution in defined options. The case example (with model test run) indicates that overburden distribution is significantly sensitive to coal seam gradient. The model has universal applicability to cyclic system (shovel–dumper combination) of opencast mining of stratified deposits.     

Deterministic modelling of the cumulative impacts of underground structures on urban groundwater flow and the definition of a potential state of urban groundwater flow: example of Lyon,France

Underground structures have been shown to have a great influence on subsoil resources in urban aquifers. A methodology to assess the actual and the potential state of the groundwater flow in an urban area is proposed. The study develops a three-dimensional modeling approach to understand the cumulative impacts of underground infrastructures on urban groundwater flow, using a case in the city of Lyon (France). All known underground structures were integrated in the numerical model. Several simulations were run: the actual state of groundwater flow, the potential state of groundwater flow (without underground structures), an intermediate state (without impervious structures), and a transient simulation of the actual state of groundwater flow. The results show that underground structures fragment groundwater flow systems leading to a modification of the aquifer regime. For the case studied, the flow systems are shown to be stable over time with a transient simulation. Structures with drainage systems are shown to have a major impact on flow systems. The barrier effect of impervious structures was negligible because of the small hydraulic gradient of the area. The study demonstrates that the definition of a potential urban groundwater flow and the depiction of urban flow systems, which involves understanding the impact of underground structures, are important issues with respect to urban underground planning.     

Theory and context in analyzing livelihoods,land use,and land cover: Lessons from Petén,Guatemala

Most studies on the causes of deforestation have sought to link the phenomenon to specific economic, political, or demographic factors, usually through statistical or spatial-statistical modeling. However, generalizations about the link between deforestation and specific variables or classes of variables are of questionable validity. Another approach, one that is receiving growing attention, seeks instead to identify particular contexts or situations, as created by an array of interacting factors, which encourage forms of land use or other economic activity that can generate deforestation pressure. Such an approach was used in this study to explore recent trends and dynamics in the Petén region of northern Guatemala. The research found a number of regional and national scale factors that in combination have led to a process of de-agrarianization and dispossession among smallholders, while large scale, commercial activities in agriculture, ranching and plantation forestry increasingly dominate. Rapid land concentration, in conjunction with limited employment generation through emergent activities, is intensifying pressure on remaining areas of forest. A focus on two distinct areas within Petén reveals how broader-scale trends and features can have differing outcomes at the local level, with contrasting socioeconomic and environmental effects. Finally, the paper explores the implications of recent dynamics in Petén for both policy and theory in relation to deforestation, agrarian change, and regional development. Key factors and questions are highlighted that should be considered when exploring influences on regional socioeconomic and environmental conditions.     

基于matlab的煤层底板突水预测系统

针对当前煤层底板突水预测存在的问题,在突水概率指数法预测预报系统的基础上,用matlab开发出了一套新型煤层底板突水预测系统软件。通过对地质、水文地质等信息数据进行分析处理,从而确定导致煤层底板突水的主控因素及次级影响因素,并分别赋予其相应的权重值,将各因素在底板突水中所起的作用定量化。特别是对于不同矿区不同控制因素的影响,其相应权重值的大小可以灵活改变。建立赋权求和数学模型,绘制出各个主要控制因素的专题图,并根据各个主要控制因素的不同权重值,叠合绘制出底板突水概率指数法突水分区图。同时计算出煤层底板突水概率指数。将系统软件应用于工程实际,预测效果与实际情况相吻合。      

Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Risk Assessment of Dike Rings in the Netherlands

Current flood protection policies in the Netherlands are based on design water levels. This concept does not allow for a proper evaluation of costs and benefits of flood protection. Hence, research is being carried out on the introduction of a flood risk approach, which looks into both the probability of flooding and the consequences of flooding. This research is being carried out within the framework of a major project called the Floris project (FLOod RISk in the Netherlands). To assess the probability of flooding the Floris project distinguishes different failure modes for dikes and structures within the dike ring. Based on a probabilistic analysis of both loads and resistance the probability of failure is determined for each failure mode. Subsequently the probabilities of failure for different failure modes and dike sections are integrated into an estimate of the probability of flooding of the dike ring as a whole. In addition the Floris project looks into the different consequences of flooding, specifically the economic damages and the number of casualties to be expected in case of flooding of a particular dike ring. The paper describes the approach in the Floris project to assess the flood risk of dike rings in the Netherlands. One of the characteristics of the Floris project is the explicit attention to different types of uncertainties in assessing the probability of flooding. The paper discusses the different starting-points adopted and presents an outline on how the Floris project will deal with uncertainties in the analysis of weak spots in a dike ring as well as in the cost benefit analysis of flood alleviation measures.     

Non-destructive xrf characterization of basaltic artifacts from Truckee,California

We have developed a new approach to the problem of the chemical fingerprinting of artifacts manufactured from volcanic rocks of basaltic and andesitic composition. The method is an adaptation of standard energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and is based on the observation that for irregularly-shaped rock fragments, the ratios of the intensities of the characteristic X-rays of certain trace elements are proportional to the ratios of the concentrations of those elements. This observation has allowed us to obtain geochemical data about the artifacts in a way that is rapid, inexpensive, and nondestructive, making it particularly suited to archaeological applications. We have used our approach to compare a suite of artifacts from an archaeological site in Martis Valley, near Truckee, California, with a group of lava flows from the surrounding area. Using a numerical measure of the geochemical difference between samples, we have been able to group the artifacts on the basis of their geochemistry, to determine which artifacts were manufactured from material found in Martis Valley and, in at least one case, to identify the lava flow that was the actual source of the lithic material for several of the artifacts.