生态模型在渔业管理中的应用

随着人们对于海洋生态的认识逐渐深入,渔业等人类活动的影响受到了更多的关注,"基于生态系统的渔业管理"（EBFM）这一概念被越来越多的研究者和国际组织所接受。生态模型为EBFM的实践提供了科学的评估方法和技术工具。与单鱼种评估模型相比,生态模型更多地考虑了系统内的各种生态过程和作用机制,栖息地等环境条件的变化,以及生态系统整体的结构和功能等,依此来反映生态系统的动态变化。由于生态模型是多样化的,关注和涉及不同的目标对象、机制过程、模型结构和参数,本文按照生态模型所关注的生态层次和组分将其分为多物种模型、群落结构模型和生态系统模型3个类型,分析了各类模型的优劣点。本文进一步阐述了生态模型在渔业管理中的应用领域,以管理策略评估为中心的应用方式,以及实践中模型选择和构建所需要注意的问题,还探讨了生态模型中降低不确定性和提高预测能力的方法。     

An ecological perspective on the deployment and design of low-crested and other hard coastal defence structures

Coastal areas play a crucial role in the economical, social and political development of most countries; they support diverse and productive coastal ecosystems that provide valuable goods and services. Globally flooding and coastal erosion represent serious threats along many coastlines, and will become more serious as a consequence of human-induced changes and accelerated sea-level rise. Over the past century, hard coastal defence structures have become ubiquitous features of coastal landscapes as a response to these threats. The proliferation of defence works can affect over half of the shoreline in some regions and results in dramatic changes to the coastal environment. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to the ecological consequences of coastal defence. Results from the DELOS (Environmental Design of Low Crested Coastal Defence Structures, EVK3-CT-2000-00041) project indicate that the construction of coastal defence structures will affect coastal ecosystems. The consequences can be seen on a local scale, as disruption of surrounding soft-bottom environments and introduction of new artificial hard-bottom habitats, with consequent changes to the native assemblages of the areas. Proliferation of coastal defence structures can also have critical impacts on regional species diversity, removing isolating barriers, favouring the spread of non-native species and increasing habitat heterogeneity. Knowledge of the environmental context in which coastal defence structures are placed is fundamental to an effective management of these structures as, while there are some general consequences of such construction, many effects are site specific. Advice is provided to meet specific management goals, which include mitigating specific impacts on the environment, such as minimising changes to surrounding sediments, spread of exotic species or growth of nuisance species, and/or enhancing specific natural resources, for example enhancing fish recruitment or promoting diverse assemblages for eco-tourism. The DELOS project points out that the downstream effects of defence structures on coastal processes and regional-scale impacts on biodiversity necessitate planning and management at a regional (large coastline) scale. To effectively understand and manage coastal defences, environmental management goals must be clearly stated and incorporated into the planning, construction, and monitoring stages.     

Defining and interpreting shoreline change

Successfully managing the coastal zone requires careful consideration of all the components of shoreline motion. Shoreline movement is a complex phenomenon that is the result of both natural processes and man-made effects. Some of these processes occur over millennia, while others are recent and may be cyclic. Understanding changes to the shore requires both a complete understanding of the underlying processes and an ability to accurately measure the changes. Many uncertainties exist, and predictions must be approached with an understanding of potential errors. Agencies using predictions must exercise caution and be prudent in the application of predictions for management decisions.     

Severity of sea ice in the Southern Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Bothnia up 21st century

The study focused on the evaluation of probable changes in the severity of sea ice conditions occurring in 3 selected areas of the Baltic Sea: the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Finland and the Southern Baltic Sea up to the year 2100. The areas have been chosen due to the high intensity of marine traffic (the Gulfs??of Bothnia and of Finland) and due to differences in sea ice conditions; winters in the Gulf of Bothnia were characterized as the most severe, whereas in the Southern Baltic were classified as the mildest ones. Consequently, three scenarios were taken into account in the study: A2 (slow rate of global economic development, market scenario), A1B (regional scenario, rapid economic development, with ecological priorities), B1 (sustainable, median economic development with strong ecological priorities), all three constructed on the basis of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES models of greenhouse gas emission). The probable changes of sea ice conditions expressed as severity index S were calculated from these models. The main results of the investigation are as follows, the variety of sea ice conditions occurring in specific regions of the Baltic will remain stable (i.e. the most severe winter conditions will still occur in Gulf of Bothnia, while the mildest in the Southern Baltic Sea). The most significant changes are likely to occur in the Southern Baltic, where some winters without ice cover in the Vistula Lagoon may happen. Nonetheless, some extremely severe winters will occur and also within specific seasons more winters with a lower number of days with ice will occur.     

Review of nekton patterns and ecological processes in seagrass landscapes

We reviewed seagrass landscape studies on nekton (fish and larger mobile crustaceans) to summarise: (1) patterns of nekton abundance in relation to patch attributes; and (2) models used to explain processes underpinning observed patterns. The response of nekton to landscape attributes is highly variable. Different taxa showed increasing densities with: increasing and decreasing patch size (12 and 11 taxa, respectively), increasing and decreasing proximity within a patch to edge (9, 14), increasing and decreasing distances from nearest seagrass patch (4, 11), and with patches perpendicular and parallel to currents (1, 2). The majority of taxa (213 out of 281, or 82%) showed no relationships. Landscape scale patterns are important for some species but evidence so far does not demonstrate major landscape effects overall. The lack of pattern might reflect the overriding importance of other factors such as within-patch characteristics, water depth or position within an estuary. It might also result from measurements at the wrong scale. The rigour of surveys can be improved by avoiding confounding of patch attributes by other factors, increasing awareness of statistical power, and more considered survey designs for attributes such as edge effects. The predation model is the most frequently invoked and tested model. Other explanatory models are based on disturbance, rates of encounter, food availability, larval supply, migration and reproductive success, but in many cases are not based on observed patterns. The best experimental work has been done on nekton species for which landscape studies have been built on a detailed understanding of the ecology of the species, such as for blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus). As this basic ecological platform is laid for more species, the landscape approach will become increasingly fruitful.     

Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

Brief overviews of the Arctic’s atmosphere, ice cover, circulation, primary production and sediment regime are given to provide a conceptual framework for considering panarctic shelves under scenarios of climate variability. We draw on past ‘regional’ studies to scale-up to the panarctic perspective. Within each discipline a synthesis of salient distributions and processes is given, and then functions are noted that are critically poised and/or near transition and thereby sensitive to climate variability and change. The various shelf regions are described and distinguished among three types: inflow shelves, interior shelves and outflow shelves. Emphasis is on projected climate changes that will likely have the greatest impact on shelf-basin exchange, productivity and sediment processes including (a) changes in wind fields (e.g. currents, ice drift, upwelling and downwelling); (b) changes in sea ice distribution (e.g. radiation and wind regimes, enhanced upwelling and mixing, ice transport and scour resuspension, primary production); and (c) changes in hydrology (e.g. sediment and organic carbon delivery, nutrient supplies). A discussion is given of the key rate-controlling processes, which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing.A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light, nutrients, productivity and ice cover likely will be greatest at the shelf-break and margins, and that this forms a natural focus for a coordinated international effort. Recognizing that the real value of climate research is to prepare society for possible futures, and that such research must be based both on an understanding of the past (e.g. the palaeo-record) as well as an ability to reliably predict future scenarios (e.g. validated models), two recommendations emerge: firstly, a comprehensive survey of circumpolar shelf-break and slope sediments would provide long-term synchronous records of shelf-interior ocean exchange and primary production at the shelf edge; secondly, a synoptic panarctic ice and ocean survey using heavy icebreakers, aircraft, moorings and satellites would provide the validation data and knowledge required to properly model key forcing processes at the margins.     

The effects of beach nourishment on the sandy-beach amphipod Exoediceros fossor: impact and recovery in Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia

Beach nourishment is increasingly being implemented to address problems of erosion. However, the ecological consequences of nourishment are poorly understood, especially in Australia. In Botany Bay, sand was piped from an intertidal borrow area at Elephant's Trunk to nourish the nearby eroding beach at Towra Point. The effects on an intertidal exoedicerotid amphipod, Exoediceros fossor (Stimpson, 1856), were examined using a beyond-BACI (Before–After, Control–Impact) sampling design. Sampling was conducted before and after engineering operations at sites within the borrow and nourishment locations and multiple control locations. Hypotheses concerning impact and recovery were tested using asymmetrical ANOVAs and two-tailed F-tests. These examined the effects on abundance and spatial variability, respectively. The impact of the engineering operations on abundance was very large at both borrow and nourishment locations. However, recovery started within several weeks and, using space × time interactions as a criterion, appeared to be complete within a year. This conclusion is made cautiously because of low statistical power and because other criteria for recovery suggest that it was not complete at some sites. As beach erosion is likely to increase in severity with rising sea levels and greater storm surges associated with climate change, management authorities will need a better understanding of the ecological effects of beach nourishment.     

Impact of coastal defence structures (tetrapods) on a demersal hard-bottom fish community in the southern North Sea

In the coming decades, artificial defence structures will increase in importance worldwide for the protection of coasts against the impacts of global warming. However, the ecological effects of such structures on the natural surroundings remain unclear. We investigated the impact of experimentally introduced tetrapod fields on the demersal fish community in a hard-bottom area in the southern North Sea. The results indicated a significant decrease in fish abundance in the surrounding area caused by migration effects towards the artificial structures. Diversity (HB) and evenness (E) values exhibited greater variation after the introduction of the tetrapods. Additionally, a distinct increase in young-of-the-year (YOY) fish was observed near the structures within the second year after introduction. We suggest that the availability of adequate refuges in combination with additional food resources provided by the artificial structures has a highly species-specific attraction effect. However, these findings also demonstrate that our knowledge regarding the impact of artificial structures on temperate fish communities is still too limited to truly understand the ecological processes that are initiated by the introduction of artificial structures. Long-term investigations and additional experimental in situ work worldwide will be indispensable for a full understanding of the mechanisms by which coastal defence structures interact with the coastal environment.     

Atmospheric inputs of metals and nutrients to the oceans: their magnitude and effects

The estimates of atmospheric inputs of metals and nutrients to the oceans and some coastal areas are reviewed and the uncertainties in these estimates considered. The evidence that these inputs significantly modify oceanic chemistry is presented. However, there are still major uncertainties in our understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean for these elements. Two of these areas of uncertainty, atmospheric deposition processes and the ecological effects of atmospheric inputs, are considered in detail.     

Shielding in biology and biophysics: Methodology,dosimetry, interpretation

An interdisciplinary review of the publications on the shielding of organisms by different materials is presented. The authors show that some discrepancies between the results of different researchers might be attributed to methodological reasons, including purely biological (neglect of rhythms) and technical (specific features of the design or material of the screen) ones. In some cases, an important factor is the instability of control indices due to the variations in space weather. According to the modern concept of biological exposure to microdoses, any isolation of a biological object by any material necessarily leads to several simultaneous changes in environmental parameters, and this undermines the principle of “all other conditions being equal” in the classical differential scheme of an experiment. The shielding effects of water solution are universally recognized and their influence is to be observed for all organisms. Data on the exposure of living organisms to weak combined magnetic fields and on the influence of space weather enabled the development of theoretical models generally explaining the effect of shielding for bioorganisms. Ferromagnetic shielding results in changes of both the static magnetic field and the field of radio waves within the area protected by the screen. When screens are nonmagnetic, changes are due to the isolation from the radio waves. In both cases, some contribution to the fluctuations of measured parameters can be made by variations in the level of ionizing radiation.     

Draft guidelines for military and intelligence gathering activities in the EEZ and their means and manner of implementation and enforcement

Specific voluntary guidelines are proposed for military and intelligence gathering activities in the EEZ. Views on the guidelines range from strong reservations regarding any restrictions on these activities to support for some restrictions. There is general support for the effort to promote mutual understanding and agreement on the rights and obligations of the maritime powers which do not want any rules and coastal States that want some predictability and protection against intimidation. The challenge is to find a practical way of handling these issues. Suggestions are provided regarding requisite specific assurances and the process for implementing and enforcing any such guidelines. State consent and State practice will play a significant role in this process.     

The EU landing obligation and European small-scale fisheries: What are the odds for success?

A landing obligation was formally implemented in the European Union (EU) for the first time, as part of the recent reform of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Given the reasonable success of the landing obligation in some countries such as the Faroe Islands, Iceland and Norway, this policy is seen as a viable approach to tackle the long-recognized discarding problem in EU waters. However, there has been some debate on whether there is sufficient evidence to support the feasibility of such a measure in the EU-CFP. The EU landing obligation will implicitly include all small-scale fisheries (SSF) provided the species captured are subject to catch limits or minimum sizes (in the case of the Mediterranean). SSF were included irrespective of the fact that the discarding problem in the EU has been historically associated with medium- to large-scale fleets (in particular largely mixed species trawl fisheries). Additionally, past experiences with a discard ban policy are still limited to specific countries and/or specific fisheries. This paper examined the appropriateness and feasibility of the recently implemented EU landing obligation in SSF. The effects in the long-term are unpredictable, but available evidence suggests that in the short to medium-term a landing obligation is likely to bring more negative social, economic and ecological impacts than benefits.     

The AquaDEB project (phase I): Analysing the physiological flexibility of aquatic species and connecting physiological diversity to ecological and evolutionary processes by using Dynamic Energy Budgets

The European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011, http://www.ifremer.fr/aquadeb/) is joining skills and expertise of some French and Dutch research institutes and universities to analyse the physiological flexibility of aquatic organisms and to link it to ecological and evolutionary processes within a common theoretical framework for quantitative bioenergetics [Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic energy and mass budgets in biological systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge]. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB are i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability of natural or human origin, and ii) to evaluate the related consequences at different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). At mid-term life, the AquaDEB collaboration has already yielded interesting results by quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species (e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) with a single mathematical framework. It has also allowed to federate scientists with different backgrounds, e.g. mathematics, microbiology, ecology, chemistry, and working in different fields, e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, ecology, agronomy, ecotoxicology, climate change. For the two coming years, the focus of the AquaDEB collaboration will be in priority: (i) to compare energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and to identify the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; and to compare dynamic (DEB) versus static (SEB) energy models to study the physiological performance of aquatic species; (ii) to consider different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) to scale up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes.     

Biological responses to contaminants in the Humber Estuary: disentangling complex relationships

Due to the ecological importance of estuaries, it is necessary to understand the biological effects that potentially toxic contaminants induce in bioindicator species. A key aspect is whether effects at lower levels of biological organisation transfer through the system to higher levels. In understanding such processes, characterising multivariate relationships between contaminants, sediment toxicities and detoxification processes are important. Worms (Hediste diversicolor) and sediments were collected along the Humber Estuary, England, and inorganic and organic contaminants were quantified. Sediment toxicities and glutathione-S-transferases (GSTs) activity in the ragworm were analysed. Concentrations of metals were highest near urban and industrial areas, whereas organic contaminants appeared at upstream locations. GST activity correlated with heavy metals. The genotoxicity, oestrogenicity, dioxin and dioxin-like activity were higher at upstream locations. Oestrogenicity correlated with alkylphenols and some organochlorines, whilst genotoxicity correlated with organochlorines and heavy metals. Despite this, higher level biological responses could not be predicted, indicating that homeostasis is operating.     

Improved ocean measurement capabilities using advanced engineering technology

Ocean measurement systems for the 1980's will require improved capabilities to sample and measure specific ocean parameters. With the increasing costs of ocean operations, these systems must be designed and produced to yield a higher degree of performance and reliability than has been previously available. Also, new capabilities will be required as program emphasis shifts to the continental shelves and margins where the understanding of coastal processes, energy development and production, ocean waste disposal, and improved water quality are of increasing social and economic importance. Some of the requirements for improved marine measurement systems and how they can be achieved are discussed below.     

Differences in spatial and seasonal patterns of macrophyte assemblages between a coastal lagoon and the open sea

Although benthic macrophytes must be considered in monitoring programs to establish the ecological status of transitional and coastal waters in the European Union, the patterns of variability in species composition of macrophyte assemblages in Mediterranean coastal lagoons has scarcely been studied. In this work the spatial (both vertical and horizontal) and seasonal dynamics of macrophyte assemblages in a coastal lagoon (Mar Menor) are compared with those of open coastal assemblages in the SW Mediterranean to analyze any biological variability in lagoon assemblages and the factors that determine such variability. Different assemblages, characterized by well defined groups of species, can be described according to their isolation from the open sea and the type of substratum; at the same time, a vertical zonation pattern, similar to that found in all marine communities but more compressed, exists. This implies that when applying the EU Water Framework Directive or assessing environmental impact, a lagoon should not be considered spatially uniform and unique unit but as a mosaic of assemblages.     

Investigation of mechanistic formulations depicting phytoplankton dynamics for models of marine pelagic ecosystems and description of a new model

Realistic modelling of marine ecosystems is necessary for improving our understanding of the ocean’s biogeochemical state and for predicting their response to anthropic perturbations. An essential step in achieving this task is the use of mechanistic formulations to describe the biogeochemical processes involved in the dynamics of marine pelagic ecosystems. This study provides a review on some modelling strategies for some of the key processes involved in the dynamics of phytoplankton. It encompasses the most advanced work in terms of mechanistic understanding and, therefore, mainly deals with photosynthesis (including photoacclimation and photoinhibition), respiration, and nutrient uptake (including multi-limitation of algal growth by nutrients). We highlight, that in many ecosystem models, phytoplankton processes are still described more or less empirically, mainly due to a lack of biochemical knowledge, or if a mechanistic formulation exists, the parameters are often difficult to assess experimentally. As a result of this investigation, a preliminary structure for a generic phytoplankton model is delivered in the last section of this paper. This model includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis/photoinhibition based on photosystem II status, as well as new formulations for photoacclimation and dissolved organic matter exudation processes. The model sensitivity analysis with regard to its parameters and a comparison with chemostat experimental data are presented in a companion paper [Baklouti, M., Faure, V., Pawlowski, L., Sciandra, A., 2006. Investigation and sensitivity analysis of a mechanistic phytoplankton model implemented in a new modular numerical tool (Eco3M) dedicated to biogeochemical modelling. Progress in Oceanography]. Finally, this new class of multi-element, multi-species phytoplankton models will provide the basis for future studies on ecosystem modelling.     

以生态产业化模式实现海洋生态产品价值的探索与研究

为探索海洋领域生态产品价值实现机制,实现海洋生态资源集约节约与可持续利用,文章在梳理国内现有的海洋生态产品价值实现发展模式、剖析存在问题的基础上,借鉴国内外案例成功经验,提出了基于生态产业化模式的海洋生态产品价值实现机制。研究认为,海洋生态产业化需具备3个必备条件：①实施区域必须具有独特的可供开发的海洋自然生态资源优势;②产业化过程必须控制在海洋生态系统承载力限度内;③要符合海洋产业发展规律。基于生态产业化模式的海洋生态产品价值实现机制需做好5个方面的工作。①明确1个发展目标：实现海洋生态资源的保值增值;②奠定好2项工作基础：做好资源调查评价和生态承载力评估;③建立3个支撑保障：顶层规划、监管机制和引导机制;④创造4项推动力：通过政策、科技、人才和资本市场产生创新发展的动能;⑤建立5步实现路径：逐步实现新技术、新产品、新企业、新模式,最终形成新业态。在推动海洋生态产业化的进程中,建议将海洋资源保护利用的监管工作贯穿于生态产业化的全过程,严格禁止超出生态承载能力的产业化过程。     

Institutional designs of customary fisheries management arrangements in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Mexico

There are considerable efforts by governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and academia to integrate marine conservation initiatives and customary practices, such as taboos that limit resource use. However, these efforts are often pursued without a fundamental understanding of customary institutions. This paper examines the operational rules in use and the presence of institutional design principles in long-enduring and dynamic customary fisheries management institutions in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Mexico. Rather than a “blue print” for devising long-enduring institutions, this study relies on the design principles as a starting point to organize an inquiry into the institutional diversity found in customary governance regimes. Three important trends emerged from this comparative analysis: (1) despite it being notoriously difficult to define boundaries around marine resources, almost 3/4 of the cases in this study had clearly defined boundaries and membership; (2) all of the customary institutions were able to make and change rules, indicating a critical degree of flexibility and autonomy that may be necessary for adaptive management; (3) the customary institutions examined generally lacked key interactions with organizations operating at larger scales, suggesting that they may lack the institutional embeddedness required to confront some common pool resources (CPR) challenges from the broader socioeconomic, institutional and political settings in which they are embedded. Future research will be necessary to better understand how specific institutional designs are related to social and ecological outcomes in commons property institutions.     

Regional co-development and security:: a comprehensive approach

Concepts of security are no longer limited to the military form, but other potential, economic, ecological, social aspects are becoming included.Emphasis needs to be put on integration of all dimensions of security. Many environmental problems present threats to human health and welfare and hence to the well-being of nations. The environmental issues cannot be ignored in context of any comprehensive security concept, but environmental security should not be treated in isolation.Integration of sustainable development and regional security may address many of the current maritime issues. Such integration may best be handled jointly and at regional levels.With this in mind and the realization that there is now a clear awareness and understanding that issues such as poverty, underdevelopment, population growth, environmental quality and sustainable resource use, are interrelated and interdependent and must be dealt with as such, the paper aims to highlight some aspects of regional security and sustainable development issues with reference to the Mediterranean basin. The aim is to initiate a process to pursue integration of sustainable development and comprehensive regional security with focus on the Mediterranean.The approach is based on the concept of the Common Heritage of Mankind as proposed by Arvid Pardo in 1967. It has 4 dimensions: economic; ethical; environmental; peace and security. In dealing with the proposal of Arvid Pardo the United Nations General Assembly decided to split up the concept: the Conference on the Law of the Sea was to deal with the peaceful uses of oceans and sea-beds; the Conference on Disarmament with the security aspects, then considered as military. UNCED 92 maintained the separation in addressing only environment and development, with management also included. However, peace and security were not included. It is time now to include these elements, and also consider the enforcement issue. The paper aims at illustrating this need through some examples from the Mediterranean basin.