Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current revealed by HF ocean radars,coastal tide gauges,and bottom-mounted ADCP

Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current (SWC) are investigated using data obtained by high frequency (HF) ocean radars, coastal tide gauges, and a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The HF radars clearly captured the seasonal variations in the surface current fields of the SWC. Almost the same seasonal cycle was repeated in the period from August 2003 to March 2007, although interannual variations were also discernible. In addition to the annual and interannual variations, the SWC exhibited subinertial variations with a period of 5–20 days. The surface transport by the SWC was significantly correlated with the sea level difference between the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk for both the seasonal and subinertial variations, indicating that the SWC is driven by the sea level difference between the two seas. The generation mechanism of the subinertial variation is discussed using wind data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. The subinertial variations in the SWC were significantly correlated with the meridional wind stress component over the region. The subinertial variations in the sea level difference and surface current delay from the meridional wind stress variations by one or two days. Sea level difference through the strait caused by wind-generated coastally trapped waves (CTWs) along the east coast of Sakhalin and west coast of Hokkaido is considered to be a possible mechanism causing the subinertial variations in the SWC.     

The Adriatic sea hydrography and circulation in spring and autumn (1985–1987)

The Adriatic basin-wide circulation and its temporal variability are reviewed on the basis of results from the analysis of hydrographic data collected during four POEM cruises. Major well known features in the circulation are revealed in the data set which covers the period from October 1985 to April 1987. A prominent signal associated with the seasonal variability is identified in the water outflowing along the Italian coast. Differences between autumn and spring in the vein of cold and fresh water flowing along the Italian shelf manifest mainly in the temperature field. During the stratified season the fresh water spreads over the entire surface layer of the southern Adriatic. On the other hand, during spring, when the sea is vertically homogeneous, the fresh water remains confined to the surface longshore boundary layer over the entire length of the Italian coast. Layers below the seasonal thermocline at the eastern portion of the sea display very weak seasonal signals. A strong signal associated with the inter-annual variations also has been documented from the analysed data set; it mainly appears in the salinity field. It is shown that in spring 1986, the salinity averaged over the entire water column north of the Palagruza Sill is lower by 0.3 psu than in spring 1987. A similar, but less prominent difference is noted in the southern Adriatic. An attempt is made to associate these differences with variations in climatic conditions over the area, the river runoff and the Mediterranean water inflow.     

基于观测数据的2003?2014年北冰洋海平面时空特征

本文对比了3个不同机构提供的北冰洋月均高度计数据,发现英国极地观测与建模中心和丹麦科技大学空间中心两套数据比较一致且空间覆盖率高,适用于北冰洋海平面变化研究,而前者在数据分辨率、平滑性和与验潮站的符合程度方面均更优。对高度计和验潮站数据的分析表明,北冰洋海平面的气候态特征表现为加拿大海盆的高值和欧亚海盆的低值之间形成鲜明对比;海平面的变化以季节变化和北极涛动引起的低频变化为主,加拿大海盆的季节和年际振幅均较大,俄罗斯沿岸海平面季节变化显著。2003?2014年,北冰洋平均海平面呈上升趋势,其中加拿大海盆海平面上升最快,而俄罗斯沿岸海平面有微弱下降趋势。加拿大海盆和俄罗斯沿岸由于海冰变化显著,不同高度计产品以及高度计与验潮站数据之间差别较大,使用时需慎重。     

Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Sweden and its link with the large‐scale atmospheric circulation

The main characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of the precipitation regime in Sweden were studied by using the long‐term monthly precipitation amount (1890‐1990) at 33 stations. The data were filtered by using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, which provides principal modes of both spatial variability and time coefficient series describing the dominant temporal variability. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to reveal association between the atmospheric circulation and the characteristics of the climate variability. Statistically significant upward shifts in the mean precipitation have been found during cold months (March, September, November and December) and only a downward shift (less significant) for August. Simultaneous changes in the time series associated to the optimally correlated circulation patterns were found, indicating an important role of the circulation. The circulation patterns are given by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in March and December and a cyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia in September and November. These changes may have induced changes in the mean precipitation seasonality reflected by a shift of the maximum precipitation from August to July (after 1931 for western part and after 1961 for the southeastern coast) and after 1961 to September, October or November for other regions. Combining rotated EOF analysis with cluster analysis, 4 regions with similar climate variability were objectively identified. For these regions the standardised monthly precipitation anomalies were computed. The frequency of the extreme events (very dry/wet and dry/wet months) over 5‐year consecutive intervals was analysed. It has been concluded that extreme wet months were more frequent than extreme dry months over the entire country, especially in the northern and southeastern part.     

基于高精度海洋动力模型的珠江口羽状流季节和年际变化规律研究

基于高精度海洋动力模型FVCOM (finite-volume community ocean model), 模拟分析了1999—2010年珠江口羽状流的季节和年际变化规律, 并结合经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function, EOF)分析探讨了影响珠江口羽状流扩展变化的主要动力因子。采用模拟时段内的现场观测数据对多年模拟结果进行验证, 结果表明模型具有较高的精度, 能够较好地模拟珠江口羽状流的扩展变化规律。模拟结果显示, 珠江口羽状流存在显著的季节变化。夏季, 受大径流和西南风的影响, 羽状流的扩展呈现双向特征, 即粤西沿岸扩展和粤东离岸扩展同时存在, 扩展范围最大; 冬季, 径流衰减为最小值, 风场转变为强烈的东北风, 羽状流被紧紧挤压在西岸, 形成狭窄的条带状, 扩展范围最小; 春、秋两季属于过渡季节, 羽状流扩展情况类似, 均表现为沿岸向粤西扩展。年际变化层面, 夏季羽状流的年际变化最为显著, 呈现粤东扩展占优型、近似对称型和粤西扩展占优型三种形态; 春季羽状流的年际变化次之, 羽状流的差异主要体现在珠江口和粤西海域; 秋、冬两季羽状流的年际变化较小, 尤以冬季最小。EOF分析的第一模态可以解释整体变化的91.2%, 反映了径流量对珠江口羽状流的影响; 第二模态可以解释整体变化的4.1%, 反映了盛行风对珠江口羽状流的影响。     

Characteristics of coastal trapped waves along the southern and eastern coasts of Australia

The spatial structures and propagation characteristics of coastal trapped waves (CTWs) along the southern and eastern coasts of Australia are investigated using observed daily mean sea level data and results from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM), and by conducting sensitivity studies with idealized numerical models. The results obtained from the sea level observations show that shortterm variations, with a typical period of 1 to 2 weeks, dominate the sea level variability in the southern half of Australia. The signal propagates anticlockwise around Australia with a propagation speed of 4.5 m/s or faster in the western and southern coasts and 2.1 to 3.6 m/s in the eastern coast. Strong seasonality of the wave activity, with large amplitude during austral winter, is also observed. It turns out that the waves are mainly generated by synoptic weather disturbances in the southwestern and southeastern regions. The numerical experiment with idealized wind forcing and realistic topography confirms that the propagating signals have characteristics of the CTW both in the southern and eastern coasts. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the difference in the phase speed between the coasts and reduction of the amplitude of the waves in the eastern coast are attributed to the different shape of the continental shelf in each region. The structures and the propagation characteristics of the CTWs around Australia are well reproduced in OFES (OGCM for the Earth Simulator) with dominant contribution from the first mode, although meso-scale eddies may modify the structure of the CTWs in the eastern coast. It is also found that generation or reinforcement of the waves by the wind forcing in the southern part of the eastern coast is necessary to obtain realistically large amplitude of the CTWs in the eastern coast.     

Trend analysis of relative sea level rise or fall of the tide gauge stations in the Pacific

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中国沿海增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系

本文通过对中国沿海25个观测站水位资料的分析,初步探讨了中国沿海1980-2012年增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系。结果表明:（1）中国沿海增减水的季节变化特征明显,相邻站由于受到的气象状况相同,其沿海增减水变化的过程相近,但是变化幅度存在较大差异。从空间分布看,沿海增减水的变化幅度呈现中间大南北小的区域特征,自长江口至广东沿海,增减水的年变化幅度最大,年变幅平均为5.0~7.5 cm;南海周边及北部湾沿海,增减水的年变化幅度次之,年变幅平均为4.0~5.5 cm;自渤海至黄海沿海,增减水的年变化幅度较小,年变幅平均为3.3~3.5 cm。（2）从时间变化看,1980-2012年中国沿海年平均增减水长期基本没有趋势性变化,但明显存在2至5年的周期性变化信号,该信号的震荡幅度为0.1 cm。经过高频滤波后,对沿海月平均增减水序列与Niño3.4指数进行相关性分析,相关系数为-0.5,该相关系数通过了显著性检验,说明中国沿海的增减水变化与ENSO事件呈现负相关关系。（3）中国沿海增减水的长期变化及空间分布特征均与海平面变化不同。1980-2012年,中国沿海海平面的上升速率为2.9 mm/a,而增减水长期基本无趋势性变化;另外,其季节变化与海平面的季节变化从时间和区域上均不存在一致性。（4）但是,短期海平面的变化与增减水有关,并且增减水对短期海平面的贡献根据其具体情况而定,增水幅度大且持续时间长的过程对短期海平面有抬升作用,其贡献率最大可达65%;反之,减水幅度大且持续时间长的过程则对短期海平面有降低的作用。     

中国沿岸近期多年月平均海面随机动态分析

本文以最大熵谱分析了中国沿岸15个站1971～1995年月平均海面序列,得出中国沿岸月平均海面的主要振动为年振动和半年振动,而主要低频周期在中国北方各站为18.6a,从长途至厦门各站为9a左右.然后以随机动态拟合分析方法计算出中国沿岸月平均海面相对上升速率范围为(1.07±0.83)mm/a,并同时指出该方法计算出的上升速率受时段长度及低频周期的影响.最后,给出了中国沿岸月平均海面变异的时空分布,并说明了厄尔尼诺现象主要影响中国南部沿海的月均海面.     

Sea Level Variations Associated with Upwelling/ Downwelling Along the West Coast of India

A three-dimensional numerical model is developed and used to study the coastal upwelling processes and corresponding seasonal changes in the sea level along the west coast of India. The upwelling and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. The model is designed to represent coastal ocean physics by resolving surface and bottom Ekman layers as realistically as possible. The prognostic variables are the three components of the velocity field, temperature, salinity and turbulent energy. The governing equations together with their boundary conditions are solved by finite-difference techniques. Experiments are performed to investigate sea level fluctuations associated with the thermal response and alongshore currents of the coastal waters. The model is forced with mean monthly wind stress forcing of January, May, July and September representing northeast monsoon and different phases of the southwest monsoon. It is known from the observational study that the upwelling process reaches to the surface waters by May along the coastal waters of the extreme southwest peninsular region. The process is more intense in July compared to May and September and its strength decreases from south to north. However, during the northeast monsoon season, which is represented by January wind stress forcing in the model, downwelling is simulated along the coast. The model simulations of the coastal response are compared with the observations and are found to be in good agreement. The maximum computed vertical velocity of about 2.0 ×10 -3 cm s -1 is predicted in July in the southern region off the coast.     

Sea surface height variations in the South China Sea from satellite altimetry

Sea surface elevation in the South China Sea is examined in the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data from 1992 to 1995. Sea level anomalies are smoothed along satellite tracks and in time with tidal errors reduced by harmonic analysis. The smoothed data are sampled every ten days with an along-track separation of about 40 km. The data reveal significant annual variations in sea level. In winter, low sea level is over the entire deep basin with two local lows centred off Luzon and the Sunda Shelf. In summer, sea level is high off Luzon and off the Sunda Shelf, and a low off Vietnam separates the two highs. The boundary between the Vietnam low and Sunda high coincides with the location of a jet leaving the coast of Vietnam described in earlier studies. Principal component analysis shows that the sea level variation consists mainly of two modes, corresponding well to the first two modes of the wind stress curl. Mode 1 represents the oscillation in the southern basin and shows little inter-annual variation. The mode 2 oscillation is weak in the southern basin and is strongest off central Vietnam. During the winters of 1992–1993 and 1994–1995 and the following summers, the wind stress curl is weak, and the mode 2 sea level variation in the northern basin is reduced, resulting in weaker winter and summer gyres. Weakening of the Vietnam low in summer implies diminishing of the eastward jet leaving the coast of Vietnam. The results are consistent with model simulations.     

Sea Level Variations Associated with Upwelling/ Downwelling Along the West Coast of India

A three-dimensional numerical model is developed and used to study the coastal upwelling processes and corresponding seasonal changes in the sea level along the west coast of India. The upwelling and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. The model is designed to represent coastal ocean physics by resolving surface and bottom Ekman layers as realistically as possible. The prognostic variables are the three components of the velocity field, temperature, salinity and turbulent energy. The governing equations together with their boundary conditions are solved by finite-difference techniques. Experiments are performed to investigate sea level fluctuations associated with the thermal response and alongshore currents of the coastal waters. The model is forced with mean monthly wind stress forcing of January, May, July and September representing northeast monsoon and different phases of the southwest monsoon. It is known from the observational study that the upwelling process reaches to the surface waters by May along the coastal waters of the extreme southwest peninsular region. The process is more intense in July compared to May and September and its strength decreases from south to north. However, during the northeast monsoon season, which is represented by January wind stress forcing in the model, downwelling is simulated along the coast. The model simulations of the coastal response are compared with the observations and are found to be in good agreement. The maximum computed vertical velocity of about 2.0 2 10 -3 cm s -1 is predicted in July in the southern region off the coast.     

Estimation of the transports through the Strait of Gibraltar

An acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) is used to measure the currents and estimate the transports over the Camarinal Sill at the Strait of Gibraltar. The deepest measurements of the ADCP compare well with an underlying conventional current meter. The exchange interface between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean water is defined as the depth of the maximum vertical shear. The mean depth of the shear interface is 147 m. The time series of the depth of the interface and the currents are used to estimate the transports across the Strait. The resulting values are 0.78 Sv for the Atlantic inflow and −0.67 Sv for the Mediterranean outflow. The time series of the shear interface include fortnightly oscillations of 19 m. The time series of the transports are compared with the pressure and sea level difference records across the Strait. Linear multiple regression is used to estimate the (statistical) contribution of each parameter on the variation of transports. The cross strait sea level difference is well correlated with the Atlantic inflow and accounts for 57% of the variability of the transport records which improves to 78% when the fortnightly and monthly cycles are included in the linear regression. The Mediterranean outflow is best correlated with the along strait sea level difference which accounts for only 10% of the variability of the transport record. Again the addition of the M_sf and the MM cycles improves the percentage of the variance accounted for to 37%. The local, along strait wind component is significantly correlated with, both the Atlantic inflow and the across strait sea level difference.     

Numerical Study of the Upper-Layer Circulation in the South China Sea

Upper-layer circulation in the South China Sea has been investigated using a three-dimensional primitive equation eddy-resolving model. The model domain covers the region from 99° to 122°E and from 3° to 23°N. The model is forced by the monthly averaged European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model winds and the climatological monthly sea surface temperature data from National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Inflow and outflow through the Taiwan Strait and the Sunda shelf are prescribed monthly from the Wyrtki estimates. Inflow of the Kuroshio branch current in the Luzon Strait is assumed to have a constant volume transport of 12 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s), and the outflow from the open boundary to the east of Taiwan is adjusted to ensure the net volume transport through all open boundaries is zero at any instant. The model reveals that a cyclonic circulation exists all year round in the northern South China Sea. During the winter time this cyclonic eddy is located off the northwest of Luzon, coinciding with the region of positive wind stress curl in this season. This cyclonic eddy moves northward in spring due to the weakening of the northeast winds. The cyclonic circulation becomes weak and stays in the continental slope region in the northern South China Sea in the summer period. The southwest wind can raise the water level along the west coast of Luzon, but there is no anticyclonic circulation in the northern South China Sea. After the onset of the northeast monsoon winds in fall, the cyclonic eddy moves back to the region off the west coast of Luzon. In the southern South China Sea and off the Vietnam coast, the model predicts a similar flow structure as in the previous related studies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

浙江近海波浪能资源的初步研究

以2000年为例,采用SWAN波浪数值模型对浙江近海海域的波浪进行了全年模拟计算,并计算获得年、月平均波功率密度分布。研究表明,浙江近岸海域年平均波功率密度约为2~6 kW·m^-1,往外海逐渐增大;同时季节变化明显,秋、冬季节波功率密度较大,春、夏季节较小。另外,通过对浙北、浙中和浙南3个近海海区的波浪出现频率和波功率密度随波高和周期变化的分析可知,浙北海域波功率密度比较高的波高及周期范围和波浪出现频率较高范围较为接近,而其对应平均波功率密度相对较低;浙南海域波功率密度比较高的范围所对应的平均波功率密度较高,而与波浪出现频率较高的范围则略有差异;浙中海域居两者之间。总体而言,浙江近海波浪能资源丰富,且全年中可开发与利用的波浪能出现频率较高。     

太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素分析

采用经验模态分解法对太平洋沿岸验潮站的月平均海平面资料进行处理,结合T/P高度计资料、Church(2004)重构SSH资料、Ishii(2005)月均海温资料,研究太平洋海平面年际、年代际变化以及资料长度内海平面变化趋势。太平洋沿岸海平面总体呈上升趋势,平均上升速率为1.4 mm/a,趋势项分布有明显的区域性和纬度特征。ENSO对太平洋地区海平面年际变化有显著影响,海平面年际变化与Nino3指数在西(东)太平洋为负(正)相关,海平面年际变化与Nino3指数的相关性在热带太平洋最大,并随着纬度升高相关性减弱,且不同地区年际变化有滞后ENSO时间不等的最大相关。海平面年际变化与PDO指数在西(东)太平洋为负(正)相关,海平面与PDO的相关性分布有区域性和随时间演变特征。年代际变化对目前使用卫星高度计资料分析海平面长期趋势项的预测有直接影响,可能完全掩盖海平面长期变化趋势。     

Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts

Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades.