2000-2012年中国北方海岸线时空变化分析

利用遥感和GIS 技术获取了中国北方“三省一市”2000 年、2005 年、2008 年、2010年、2011 年与2012 年共6 期大陆海岸线的时空分布情况;采用网格法计算了各个时期海岸线的分形维数;分析了海岸线时空变化特征、海岸线长度变化与分形维数变化之间的关系,以及海岸线动态变化的原因。2000-2012 年,研究区海岸线长度持续增加,总共增加了637.95km,年均增加53.16 km。从区域上看,以天津市与河北省所在的渤海湾区域海岸线变化最强烈;从时间过程上看,2008 年后海岸线长度进入快速增长时期,其中2010-2011 年是海岸线长度变化最剧烈的时期,变化强度为2.49%。2000-2012 年研究区海岸线的分形维数不断增大,其中渤海湾区域海岸线分形维数变化最剧烈;历史海岸线的长度与分形维数之间存在较好的线性关系,相关系数为0.9962;通过对大量海岸线动态引起的整体海岸线长度变化与分形维数变化的统计分析研究表明,在大多数情况下,局部海岸线长度增大(或缩减) 会导致整体海岸线分形维数增大(或减小),并且呈正比例变化。从2000-2012 年各时段海岸线动态对应的各类沿海工程的面积汇总情况来看,港口建设、渔业设施建设以及盐场建设分别占前三位,人类工程建设是中国北方海岸线变化最主要原因;与人类活动影响相比,自然变化如河口淤积与侵蚀对海岸线影响比较小。     

2000–2012年中国黄淮海农业区多熟种植时空变化（英文）

Multiple cropping index(MCI) is the ratio of total sown area and cropland area in a region,which represents the regional time intensity of planting crops.Multiple cropping systems have effectively improved the utilization efficiency and production of cropland by increasing cropping frequency in one year.Meanwhile,it has also significantly altered biogeochemical cycles.Therefore,exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of multiple cropping intensity is of great significance for ensuring food and ecological security.In this study,MCI of Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region with intensive cropping practices was extracted based on a cropping intensity mapping algorithm using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI) time series at 500-m spatial resolution and 8-day time intervals.Then the physical characteristics and landscape pattern of MCI trends were analyzed from 2000–2012.Results showed that MCI in Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region has increased from 152% to 156% in the 12 years.Topography is a primary factor in determining the spatial pattern dynamics of MCI,which is more stable in hilly area than in plain area.An increase from 158% to 164% of MCI occurred in plain area while there was almost no change in hilly area with single cropping.The most active region of MCI change was the intersection zone between the hilly area and plain area.In spatial patterns,landscape of multiple cropping systems tended to be homogenized reflected by a reduction in the degree of fragmentation and an increase in the degree of concentration of cropland with the same cropping system.     

1960–2016年中国北方寒潮事件时空变化分析（英文）

Among the most devastating extreme weather events, cold surge(CS) events frequently impact northern China. It has been reported that extreme weather events will increase in the global warming context. However, the direct evidence of this hypothesis is limited. Here, we investigated the changes in frequency, number, duration, and temperature of CS events in northern China using the daily minimum temperature dataset of 331 stations from 1960 to 2016. The results indicate that the annual CS events in terms of frequency and number decreased, and the duration shortened as the starting date was later and the ending date earlier. Meanwhile, the annual CS temperature increased. In addition, spatial trends in the CS events in terms of frequency, number, and duration decreased while the CS temperature increased in most regions of northern China. We interpreted these variations as a response to global warming. However, the extreme CS events in terms of frequency, number and the earliest starting date and the latest ending date showed little change though the extreme CS temperature increased, implying climate warming had not limited extreme CS events. The adverse effect of CS events on agriculture and human health remain concerning.     

2000-2012年中国北方草地NDVI和气候因子时空变化

利用2000-2012年的MODIS NDVI数据,结合中国北方187个气象基准站年均温度和年降水量资料,对2000-2012年中国北方草地NDVI的时空变化特征和同期年均温度、降水量动态变化进行了分析。结果表明:(1)草地NDVI无明显变化的区域占北方草地总面积的64.35%,以荒漠草地为主;草地退化区域的面积(占北方草地总面积的23.97%)大于改善区域的面积(占北方草地11.68%)。(2)NDVI变异系数分析结果表明,2000-2012年以来中国北方草地68.37%区域呈稳定状态。其中,荒漠草地植被变异性较小,处于相对稳定状态的草地占其总面积的79.73%;而灌丛草地和典型草地的变异性较大,变化显著的草地分别占其草地面积的41.55%和45.92%。(3)北方草地区中,54.04%的区域年均温度呈升高趋势,大于温度呈降低趋势的区域,温度升高幅度最大为0.159 ℃·a^-1;年降水量呈增加趋势的面积达71.01%,远大于呈减少趋势的面积,降水量增加的最大幅度为23.29 mm·a^-1。     

2000–2015年中国城市化进程中耕地质量及其时空变化研究（英文）

加速的城市化进程导致越来越多的耕地被占用,在耕地资源供给不足情况下高质量的农田受到巨大威胁,进而可能对中国粮食安全构成威胁。尽管已对中国耕地质量的空间格局进行了评估,但其随时间变化的情况未见报导。本研究利用MODIS的净初级生产力产品(MOD17)数据,基于发展的累积概率分布法确定耕地质量标准,以2000–2005年、2005–2010年和2010–2015年三期基于Landsat遥感的土地利用变化(LUCC)数据,得到低、中、高质量农田的空间分布,定量分析城市化占用耕地的数量和质量。结果表明,城市化占用耕地面积占耕地减少总面积的比例由2000–2005年的47.29%增加到2010–2015年的77.46%。2000年,中国耕地质量以中低产田为主,分别占全国耕地面积的40.81%和48.74%,高产田仅占10.44%。随着建设用地规模的扩大,城市化占用高产田面积在全国耕地面积中的比例从2000–2005年的9.71%上升到2010–2015年的15.63%,高产田受到严重威胁。从空间上看,该现象已由华东、华南向中西部地区转移,尤其是西北地区,其2010–2015年建设占用耕地面积中,高产田达到52.97%。本研究不仅提供了一种评价耕地质量的方法,同时揭示了城市化进程占用高质量耕地的趋势。未来占用高质量农田的趋势可能会持续,必须构建以振兴乡村为主的新型发展模式,可能是缓解土地资源紧缺情况下城市化和粮食安全矛盾的可选途径,值得土地利用规划和政府决策给予重视。     

1980–2011年中国农作物种植结构时空变化（英文）

Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of cropping systems is very important for agricultural policymaking and food security assessment,and can provide a basis for national policies regarding cropping systems adjustment and agricultural adaptation to climate change.With rapid development of society and the economy,China's cropping structure has profoundly changed since the reform and opening up in 1978,but there has been no systematic investigation of the pattern,process and characteristics of these changes.In view of this,a crop area database for China was acquired and compiled at the county level for the period 1980–2011,and linear regression and spatial analysis were employed to investigate the cropping structure type and cropping proportion changes at the national level.This research had three main findings:(1) China's cropping structure has undergone significant changes since 2002;the richness of cropping structure types has increased significantly and a diversified-type structure has gradually replaced the single types.The single-crop types—dominated by rice,wheat or maize—declined,affected by the combination of these three major food crops in mixed plantings and conversion of some of their planting area to other crops.(2) In the top 10 types,82.7% of the county-level cropping structure was rice,wheat,maize and their combinations in 1980;however,this proportion decreased to 50.7% in 2011,indicating an adjustment period of China's cropping structure.Spatial analysis showed that 63.8% of China's counties adjusted their cropping structure,with the general change toward reducing the main food types and increasing fruits and vegetables during 1980–2011.(3) At the national level,the grain-planting pattern dominated by rice shifted to coexistence of rice,wheat and maize during this period.There were significant decreasing trends for 47% of rice,61% of wheat and 29.6% of maize cropping counties.The pattern of maize cropping had the most significant change,with the maize proportion decreasing in the zone from northeastern to southwestern China during this period.Cities and their surroundings were hotspots for cropping structural adjustment.Urbanization has significantly changed cropping structure,with most of these regions showing rapid increases in the proportion of fruit and vegetables.Our research suggests that the policy of cropping structural adjustment needs to consider geographical characteristics and spatial planning of cropping systems.In this way,the future direction of cropping structural adjustment will be appropriate and scientifically based,such as where there is a need to maintain or increase rice and wheat cropping,increase soybean and decrease maize,and increase the supply of fruit and vegetables.     

哈萨克斯坦1982–2015年植被时空变化（英文）

归一化植被指数(NDVI)作为表征植被生长状况的关键性指标,能够有效的提供植被生长状况的信息。本研究基于1982–2015年哈萨克斯坦时间序列的GIMMS/NDVI数据,分析植被)生长的空间格局及变化趋势,研究结果表明:哈萨克斯坦自北向南分布着农田、草地、灌丛这三类主要的植被类型,呈明晰的地带性分布特征;植被指数由北到南逐渐降低,农田、草地和灌丛三类主要植被类型的NDVI均值水平依次为农田草地灌丛;1982–2015年间,NDVI呈现出先增长(1982–1992年)、再降低(1993–2007年)、然后又增长(2008–2015年)的变化趋势。NDVI显著下降的区域占土地总面积的24.0%,主要分布在西北部的农田与草地交错地带以及南部边缘的农田,草地退化面积占草地总面积的23.5%、农田退化面积占农田总面积的48.4%、灌丛退化面积占灌丛总面积的13.7%,植被改善的区域分布在中东部的农田以及农田与草地的交错带,显著提升的面积占土地总面积的11.8%。     

2000–2015年柴达木盆地植被物候时空变化及其对气候变化的响应（英文）

Based on TIMESAT 3.2 platform, MODIS NDVI data(2000–2015) of Qaidam Basin are fitted, and three main phenological parameters are extracted with the method of dynamic threshold, including the start of growth season(SGS), the end of growth season(EGS) and the length of growth season(LGS). The spatial and temporal variation of vegetation phenology and its response to climate changes are analyzed respectively. The conclusions are as follows:(1) SGS is mainly delayed as a whole. Areas delayed are more than the advanced in EGS, and EGS is a little delayed as a whole. LGS is generally shortened.(2) With the altitude rising, SGS is delayed, EGS is advanced, and LGS is shortened and phenophase appears a big variation below 3000 m and above 5000 m.(3) From 2000 to 2015, the temperature appears a slight increase along with a big fluctuation, and the precipitation increases evidently.(4) Response of phenophase to precipitation is not obvious in the low elevation humid regions, where SGS arrives early and EGS delays; while, in the upper part of the mountain regions, SGS delays and EGS advances with temperature rising, SGS arrives early and EGS delays with precipitation increasing.     

1951–2010年中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化（英文）

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluated the changes in the heat and moisture conditions of crop growth. An average value of ten years was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in the agricultural hydrothermal conditions within a 1 km2 grid. Next, the inter-annual changing trend was simulated by regression analysis of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that the contour lines for temperature and accumulated temperatures(the daily mean temperature ≥0°C) increased significantly in most parts of China, and that the temperature contour lines had all moved northwards over the past 60 years. At the same time, the annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, though more than half of the meteorological stations did not pass the significance test. However, the mean temperatures in the hottest month and the coldest month exhibited a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010. In addition, the 0°C contour line gradually moved from the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Basin to the Yellow River Basin. All these changes would have a significant impact on the distribution of crops and farming systems. Although the mechanisms influencing the interactive temperature and precipitation changes on crops were complex and hard to distinguish, the fact remained that these changes would directly cause corresponding changes in crop characteristics.     

1992–2015全球耕地时空变化（英文）

人口和人均食物需求的增加对全球耕地产生了显著的影响。利用欧空局提供的精度为300m的最新土地覆被产品,文章分析了1992-2015年全球耕地的时空变化趋势和耕地转化特征。结果显示:1)在1992-2004年间全球耕地面积增长迅速,而在2004-2012年间耕地增长缓慢,2012年后耕地有缓慢减少的趋势。2)在洲尺度上,非洲耕地有一直增长的态势,而其他洲耕地都经历了耕地转型,有先增长后下降的趋势;在收入较高的国家,耕地多有下降的趋势。3)全球耕地增长的热点区域主要分布在亚马逊林地、欧亚大草原和撒哈拉沙漠边缘。全球耕地减少的中心从欧洲转移到亚洲。由于迅速的城市化,亚洲耕地扩张侵占了大量农田。     

2000-2011年可可西里地区主要湖泊冰情时空变化（英文）

Lake ice phenology,i.e.the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover,is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate.Based on the boundary data of lakes,some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data,the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000–2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology.And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) The time of freeze-up start(FUS) and freeze-up end(FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October–early November,mid-November – early December,respectively.The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month.The time of break-up start(BUS) and break-up end(BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed,and appeared in the early February – early June,early May – early June,respectively.The average ice duration(ID) and the complete ice duration(CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days,respectively.(2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years.Specifically,the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend.In contrast,the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance.This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake.The average rates of ID and CID were –2.21 d/a and –1.91 d/a,respectively.(3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors.The temperature,lake area,salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice.However,the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well.(4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process.The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.     

1960–2012年青藏高原极端气候时空动态与变异研究（英文）

极端气候事件是全球长期气候变化研究中的重要内容。作为世界第三极,青藏高原对气候变化和变异的响应非常敏感。本文基于青藏高原98个气象站(大部分位于海拔4000 m以上)的日值观测数据,包括日气温最大值、最小值和日降水量,计算了1960–2012年间的极端气候指数并分析了其时空变化格局。首先,根据国际气象组织的标准计算了15个核心气温极端指数和8个核心降水极端指数,然后从高原整体、生态区和台站尺度分析了极端指数的时空变化趋势。气温极端指数表明青藏高原整体表现为显著升温趋势,高原的冷日和冷夜时间序列呈下降趋势,每10年分别减少8.9天和17.3天。相应的暖日和暧夜增长趋势分别为7.6 d (10 yr)-1和12.5 d (10 yr)-1。生长季长度以5.3 d (10 yr)-1的速率增加。在站点尺度,大部分台站的气温极端指数存在显著趋势,但是空间分异性显著。生态区的气温极端指数与高原整体的发展趋势一致。高原整体的降水极端指数波动性较大,增长趋势微弱。年总降水增长趋势为2.8mm(10yr)-1。时序变化点分析表明极端气候指数的突变主要发生在1980和1990年代。赫斯特指数表明未来各种极端气候指数都将保持研究时间段内的发展趋势。另外,探索了极端气候指数与海拔高度的关系,发现各指数的变化趋势与高程并无显著相关性。总体上高原升温呈现显著的不对称特征,即气温冷指数的上升幅度明显大于暖指数的上升幅度,日最低气温的增长趋势也很显著。大多数降水极端指数表现为微弱的增加趋势(不显著)。本研究综合分析了青藏高原极端气候的时空分布格局,可以为高原气候变化研究提供参考。     

1990–2015年横断山区国土空间时空变化研究（英文）

Hengduan Mountains offer land space for a variety of ecological services. However, the sustainable development and management of land space has been challenged by increased human activities in recent years. This paper performs the spatial pattern analysis of the quantitative and structural changes of various landscapes at different altitudes, and uses the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 to reveal how various land patterns have changed. The results show that, within the production-living-ecological space schema, the ecological space dominates Hengduan Mountains, while the production and living space was mainly distributed in south region. During 1990–2015, the production-living-ecological spatial changes had been gradually accelerated and the regional differences had become more prominent. The agricultural production space had continuously decreased by 1132.31 km~2, and the industrial and mining production space had rapidly increased by 281.4 km~2 during 1990–2015. The living space had steadily increased, and the ecological space had increased with fluctuations. The land space pattern in Hengduan Mountains was greatly restricted by the terrain, such as altitude and slope. The implementations of China Western Development Strategy and the Returning Farmland to Forest Program had favorably promoted the changes of land spatial pattern in Hengduan Mountains.     

2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究（英文）

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.     

2000-2014年秦巴山区植被覆盖时空变化特征及其归因（英文）

Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) dataset,we investigated the patterns of spatiotemporal variation in vegetation coverage and its associated driving forces in the Qinling-Daba(Qinba) Mountains in 2000–2014.The Sen and Mann–Kendall models and partial correlation analysis were used to analyze the data,followed by calculation of the Hurst index to analyze future trends in vegetation coverage.The results of the study showed that(1) NDVI of the study area exhibited a significant increase in 2000–2014(linear tendency,2.8%/10a).During this period,a stable increase was detected before 2010(linear tendency,4.32%/10a),followed by a sharp decline after 2010(linear tendency,–6.59%/10a).(2) Spatially,vegetation cover showed a "high in the middle and a low in the surroundings" pattern.High values of vegetation coverage were mainly found in the Qinba Mountains of Shaanxi Province.(3) The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area,being 81.32% and 18.68%,respectively,during the study period.Piecewise analysis revealed that 71.61% of the total study area showed a decreasing trend in vegetation coverage in 2010–2014.(4) Reverse characteristics of vegetation coverage change were stronger than the same characteristics on the Qinba Mountains.About 46.89% of the entire study area is predicted to decrease in the future,while 34.44% of the total area will follow a continuously increasing trend.(5) The change of vegetation coverage was mainly attributed to the deficit in precipitation.Moreover,vegetation coverage during La Nina years was higher than that during El Nino years.(6) Human activities can induce ambiguous effects on vegetation coverage: both positive effects(through implementation of ecological restoration projects) and negative effects(through urbanization) were observed.     

中国典型自然保护区生境状况时空变化（英文）

Until 2015,China had established 2740 nature reserves with a total area of 1.47million km~2,covering 14.8%of China’s terrestrial land surface.Based on remote sensing inversion,ecological model simulation and spatial analysis methods,we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of fractional vegetation coverage(FVC),net primary production(NPP),and human disturbance(HD)in habitats of typical national nature reserves(NNRs)during the first 15 years of the 21st century from 2000 to 2015.And then the three indicators were compared between different NNR types and varied climate zones.The results showed that(1)the average 5-year FVC of NNRs increased from 36.3%to 37.1%,and it improved in all types of NNRs to some extent.The annual average FVC increased by 0.11%,0.84%,0.21%,0.09%,0.11%and 0.08%in NNRs of forest ecosystem,plain meadow,inland wetland,desert ecosystem,wild animal and wild plant,respectively.(2)The NPP annually increased by 2.06 g·m~(-2),1.23 g·m~(-2),0.28 g·m~(-2) and 0.4 g·m~(-2) in NNRs of plain meadow,inland wetland,desert ecosystem and wild animal,respectively.However,it decreased by 3.45 g·m~(-2) and2.35 g·m~(-2) in NNRs of forest ecosystem and wild plant respectively.(3)In the past 15 years,besides the slight decreases in the NNRs located at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the south subtropical zone,HD enhanced in most of NNRs,especially HD in the warm temperate humid zone increased from 4.7% to 5.35%.     

京津冀地区1985–2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素（英文）

林地是维护生态安全,实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题,包括土壤侵蚀,水资源短缺,干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础,探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明,林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型,这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言,土壤有机质含量,坡度(5°),到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明,空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。     

华北平原2002年和2012年农业土地利用变化（英文）

Based on the MODIS NDVI data and Landsat TM/ETM data of 2002 and 2012, this paper extracts the planting area of winter wheat–summer maize, single spring maize, cotton and forest/fruit trees, vegetable and paddy, and made the agricultural land use map of the North China Plain(NCP). Agricultural land use area accounted for 63.32% compared to the total area of the NCP in 2002. And it increased to 65.66% in 2012, which mainly caused by the vegetables and forest/fruit trees increasing. Planting areas of winter wheat–summer maize, cotton, single spring maize, forest/fruit trees, vegetables and paddy were 5031.21×10~3, 865.90×10~3, 1226.10×10~3, 1271.17×10~3, 648.02×10~3, 216.51×10~3 ha in 2012. Rank of changes was: vegetables(+45%) forest/fruit trees(+27.4%) paddy(–23.7%) cotton(–20.4%) single spring maize(+17.3%) winter wheat–summer maize(–0.6%). In developed region like Beijing and Tianjin, planting area of crops with high economic benefit(such as fruit trees and vegetables) increased significantly. Government policies for groundwater protection caused obvious decline of winter wheat cultivation in Hebei Province. Cotton planting in Shandong Province decreased more than 200,000 ha during 2002–2012. The data products will be published in the website: http://hydro.sjziam.ac.cn/Default.aspx. To clarify the agricultural land use in the NCP will be very helpful for the regional agricultural water consumption research, which is the serious problem in the NCP.     

内蒙古草原草本植物萌芽期时空变化（英文）

Phenological modeling is not only important for the projection of future changes of certain phenophases but also crucial for systematically studying the spatiotemporal patterns of plant phenology. Based on ground phenological observations, we used two existing temperature-based models and 12 modified models with consideration of precipitation or soil moisture to simulate the bud-burst date(BBD) of four common herbaceous plants—Xanthium sibiricum, Plantago asiatica, Iris lactea and Taraxacum mongolicum—in temperate grasslands in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that(1) increase in temperature promoted the BBD of all species. However, effects of precipitation and soil moisture on BBD varied among species.(2) The modified models predicted the BBD of herbaceous plants with R~2 ranging from 0.17 to 0.41 and RMSE ranging from 9.03 to 11.97 days, better than classical thermal models.(3) The spatiotemporal pattern of BBD during 1980–2015 showed that species with later BBD, e.g. X. sibiricum(mean: day of year 135.30) exhibited an evidently larger spatial difference in BBD(standard deviation: 13.88 days) than the other species. Our findings suggest that influences of temperature and water conditions need to be considered simultaneously in predicting the phenological response of herbaceous plants to climate change.