Solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms

We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT), including intense storms at the level of- 200 nT< Dst ≤-100 nT, great storms at -300 nT< Dst ≤-200 nT, and super storms at Dst ≤-300 nT, which occurred during the period of 1957-2006, based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Statistics show that the majority (82%) of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst ≤-100 nT that occurred in the study period were intense geomagnetic storms, with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms. It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle, and about 73% in the descending one. Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms, 79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak, or in the three years after it. The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred, during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years after it, is investigated. Finally, the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.     

Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index) during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68) and aa index(0.86) during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13± 14.97 and 104.23± 17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24.Further,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024.While the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.     

The prediction method of similar cycles

The concept of degree of similarity(η),is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter(e.g.the maximum amplitude Rmax)of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one,and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed.For two parameters,the solar minimum(Rmin)and rising rate(βa),which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum,a synthesis degree of similarity(ηs)is defined as the weighted-average of theηvalues around Rmin and βa,with the weights given by the coef...     

Editorial: solar radiophysics—recent results on observations and theories

Solar radiophysics is a rapidly developing branch of solar physics and plasma astrophysics. Solar radiophysics has the goal of analyzing observations of radio emissions from the Sun and understanding basic physical processes operating in quiet and active regions of the solar corona. In the near future, the commissioning of a new generation of solar radio observational facilities, which include the Chinese Spectral Radio Heliograph（CSRH） and the upgrade of the Siberian Solar Radio Telescope（SSRT）, and the beginning of solar observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array（ALMA）, is expected to bring us new breakthrough results of a transformative nature. The Marie-Curie International Research Staff Exchange（MC IRSES） “RadioSun” international network aims to create a solid foundation for the successful exploitation of upcoming solar radio observational facilities, as well as intensive use of the existing observational tools, advanced theoretical modeling of relevant physical processes and observables, and training a new generation of solar radio physicists. The RadioSun network links research teams from China,Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and the UK. This mini-volume presents research papers based on invited reviews and contributed talks at the 1st RadioSun workshop in China. These papers cover a broad range of research topics and include recent observational and theoretical advances in solar radiophysics, MHD seismology of the solar corona, physics of solar flares, generation of radio emission, numerical modeling of MHD and plasma physics processes, charged-particle acceleration and novel instrumentation.     

Long-term trends in solar activity. Variations of solar indices in the last 40 years

We analyze long-term variations of several solar activity indices(AIs) that have been measured over the last 40 years. With this goal, we study the AIs that characterize the fluxes from different areas in the solar atmosphere. Our consideration of mutual correlations between the solar indices is based on the study of relationships between them in the period from 1950 to 1990. This period of time, covering activity cycles 19–22, is characterized by relatively stable relations between the indices. We investigate the normalized variations of these indices in recent time in relation to their values which were calculated by considering radiation from the Sun in the radio range at a wavelength of 10.7 cm(F10.7) in 1950–1990.The analysis of time series, representing variations of the normalized AI(AIFF) in solar cycles 23–24,shows different trends exist for different indices in terms of their long-term behavior. We assume that variations of normalized International Sunspot Number(SSN), F530.3 and Flare Index, which have shown sharp decreases in the last 40 years, are possibly associated with a decrease in the intensity of large-scale magnetic fields in the photosphere(SSN) and in the corona(the coronal index and the Flare Index).     

Support Vector Machine combined with K-Nearest Neighbors for Solar Flare Forecasting

A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.     

Solar Magnetism and the Activity Telescope at HSOS

A new solar telescope system is described, which has been operating at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), since the end of 2005. This instrument, the Solar Magnetism and Activity Telescope (SMAT), comprises two telescopes which respectively make measurements of full solar disk vector magnetic field and Hα observation. The core of the full solar disk video vector magnetograph is a birefringent filter with 0.1  bandpass, installed in the tele-centric optical system of the telescope. We present some preliminary observational results of the full solar disk vector magnetograms and Hα filtergrams obtained with this telescope system.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Magnetic flux participation in solar surface magnetism during solar cycle 24

This study aims at investigating surface magnetic flux participation among different types of magnetic features during solar cycle 24. State-of-the-art observations from SDO/HMI and Hinode/SOT are combined to form a unique database in the interval from April 2010 to October 2015. Unlike previous studies, the statistics presented in this paper are feature-detection-based. More than 20 million magnetic features with relatively large scale, such as sunspot/pore, enhanced and quiet networks, are automatically detected and categorized from HMI observations, and the internetwork features are identified from SOT/SP observations. The total flux from these magnetic features reaches 5.9×10²² Mx during solar minimum and2.4 × 10²³ Mx in solar maximum. Flux occupation from the sunspot/pore region is 29% in solar maximum.Enhanced and quiet networks contribute 18% and 21% flux during the solar minimum, and 50% and 9% flux in the solar maximum respectively. The internetwork field contributes over 55% of flux in the solar minimum, and its flux contribution exceeds that of sunspot/pore features in the solar maximum. During the solar active condition, the sunspot field increases its area but keeps constant flux density of about 150 G,while the enhanced network follows the sunspot number variation showing increasing flux density and area,but the quiet network displays decreasing area and somewhat increasing flux density of about 6%. The origin of the quiet network is not known exactly, but is suggestive of representing the interplay between mean-field and local dynamos. The source, magnitude and possible importance of ‘hidden flux' are discussed in some detail.     

A review of solar type Ⅲ radio bursts

Solar type Ⅲ radio bursts are an important diagnostic tool in the understanding of solar accelerated electron beams. They are a signature of propagating beams of nonthermal electrons in the solar atmosphere and the solar system. Consequently, they provide information on electron acceleration and transport, and the conditions of the background ambient plasma they travel through. We review the observational properties of type Ⅲ bursts with an emphasis on recent results and how each property can help identify attributes of electron beams and the ambient background plasma. We also review some of the theoretical aspects of type Ⅲ radio bursts and cover a number of numerical efforts that simulate electron beam transport through the solar corona and the heliosphere.     

Soft solar X-rays and solar activity

Soft X-radiation between 8–12 Å was found to be emitted from the Sun at the time of four optically-identified major systems of loop prominences. The peak emission rates and time-integrated X-ray energies are very similar for three of the events while the fourth appeared to emit X-rays only weakly. The data are not consistent with a compression-condensation model for the loops, and support the fast-proton injection model. Proton injection may take place on a long time scale.     

Soft solar X-rays and solar activity

Soft solar X-rays in the wavelength interval 8–12 Å were observed from OSO III. The totality of the observations that were made between 9 March, 1967, and 18 May, 1968, is summarized graphically and compared to the course of solar activity as observed at other wavelengths, with particular emphasis upon visible activity.     

A space-borne solar stereoscope experiment in solar physics

A space experiment project is proposed, with the main purpose of obtaining 3-dimensional images of the solar atmosphere. We give a list of problems and objectives which can be resolved through the space-borne solar stereoscope.     

Interactions between solar neutrinos and solar magnetic fields

We attempt to correlate all of the available solar-neutrino data with the strong magnetic fields these neutrinos encounter in the solar interior along their Earth-bound path. We approximate these fields using the photospheric, magnetograph-measured flux from central latitude bands, time delayed to proxy the magnetic fields in the solar interior. Our strongest evidence for anticorrelation is for magnetic fields within the central ±5° solar-latitude band that have been delayed by 0.85 ± 0.55 yr. Assuming a neutrino-magnetic interaction, this might indicate that interior fields travel to the solar surface in this period of time. As more solar-neutrino flux information is gathered, the question of whether this result arises from a physical process or is merely a statistical fluke should be resolved, providing that new data are obtained spanning additional solar cycles and that correlation studies focus on these same regions of the solar magnetic field.     

A search for solar neutrons during solar flares

The upper limit on the solar neutron flux from 1–20 MeV has been measured, by a neutron detector on the OGO-6 satellite, to be less than 5 × 10^–2 n cm^–2 s^–1 at the 95% confidence level for several flares including two flares of importance 3B and a solar proton event of importance 3B. The measurements are consistent with the models proposed by Lingenfelter (1969) and by Lingenfelter and Ramaty (1967) for solar neutron production during solar flares. The implied upper limit on the flux of 2.2 MeV solar gamma rays is about the same as the 2.2 MeV flux observed by Chupp et al. (1973).     

A search for solar neutrons near solar maximum

A plastic scintillator counter with anticoincidence screen has been flown in two 4-hour balloon flights, at a floating altitude of 3.2 and 3.5 mb, during day-and night-time respectively. Comparison between the day-and night-time counting-rates gives an upper limit of 10^–2n/cm² sec above 45 MeV for the continuous emission flux.This upper limit is compared with those derived from other experiments in function of the neutron energy spectrum assumed, and also with the expected continuous emission deduced from solar proton fluxes reported in non-flare conditions. It is concluded that with present experimental techniques, non-flare solar neutron emission can be detected only if the proton fluxes observed represent less than 10^–3 of the protons accelerated in the sun.This research has been sponsored in part by the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories through the European Office of Aerospace Research, OAR, USAF under contract F 61052-68-C-050.0     

The relationship between solar flares and solar sector boundaries

A superposed epoch analysis of 1964–1970 solar flares shows a marked increase in flare occurrence within a day (13° of longitude) of (- +) solar sector boundaries as well as a local minimum in flare occurrence near (+ -)sector boundaries. This preference for (- +) boundaries is more noticeable for northern hemisphere flares, where these polarities match the Hale polarity law, but is not reversed in the south. Plage regions do not show such a preference.     

Variation of the solar constant during the solar cycle

Measurements of the Nimbus-7 and Solar Maximum Mission satellites reported temporary large decreases of the solar constant of the order of a few tenths of a percent on a time-scale from days to weeks. Our investigations show that these decreases were caused by active sunspot groups with fast development and complex structure. This connection between the solar constant variation and the appearance of the active groups seems to be more clear in the maximum of the solar activity. At the time of the solar minimum, mainly in the second part of 1984, there were not any active sunspot groups practically on the solar disk, the value of the solar constant only fluctuated around its mean without large variation. The results of time series analyses show that the periodicity of the solar constant values, of young and active spot areas was nearly 23.5 days in 1980, which increases to 28 days towards the minimum of the solar cycle till 1983. During this time interval the main periodicity of the old, passive spot areas was around 28 days. In 1984, at the time of the solar minimum, there were not any obvious periodicities practically in the projected areas of the different types of the sunspot groups.     

A mixed solar core, solar neutrinos and helioseismology

We consider a wide class of solar models with mixed core. Most of these models can be excluded as the sound speed profile that they predict is in sharp disagreement with helioseismic constraints. All the remaining models predict ⁸B and/or ⁷Be neutrino fluxes of at least as large as those of SSMs. In conclusion, helioseismology shows that a mixed solar core cannot account for the neutrino deficit implied by the current solar neutrino experiments.     

Short-time variations of solar neutrinos and solar activity cycle

It is shown from the statistical analysis of the sunspot data and solar neutrino data that both the data exhibits 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 months period and these periods may be g-mode oscillation of the core associated with the solar activity.