邢台地震与我国地震预报的发展

详细叙述了自1966年邢台地震以来,我国地震预报研究与实践的主要进展:建设成了多学科的地震观测系统,为地震预报打下了良好基础;进行了大量震例研究,初步建立了地震预报的判据和指标体系;进行了地震预报理论的实验和研究,提出了多种地震孕育发生模型及前兆机理;通过20多年的5次地震预报攻关研究,形成了数十种地震预报方法;边研究,边预报,几十年来成功地预报了20多次破坏性地震,并取得了减灾实效,使我国地震预报的科学水平居于世界前列。本文还对地震预报尚需解决的科学难题进行探讨。     

地震拟合优度在青海中强地震预报中的应用

运用地震拟合优度的计算公式,对青海省中东部的6个ME≥6．0地震从震前数年开始进行地震拟合优度计算,发现这6个地震震前一段时间地震拟合优度都有一定程度的下降。再对共和7．1级地震震中附近一定区域内的地震进行拟合优度计算,进而提取震中周边300kmME≥5．8以上地震的中期预报指标。并对这一指标进行预报水平评分。结果表明,这一方法对共和地震震中胤边300km ML≥5．8以上地震的中期预报有一定的应用价值。另外,对拟合优度计算参数的选取进行分析,确定了最优的计算参数。     

推进监测预报体系建设,提高地震预测预报水平

对监测预报工作的地位和作用进行了深入的阐述，分析总结了监测预报工作取得的进展以及存在的问题，提出了未来监测预报体系建设的指导思想和总体目标。并对进一步加强监测预报体系建设，提高预测预报水平各环节的工作进行了详细的论述。     

Method of prediction of earthquake by using seismisity

The method of prediction of earthquake by using seismisity (MPES) is to make use of the message of earthquakes (including large, middle, small) in pre-period to predict large earthquake in post-period. Some better methods are presented in this paper which are selected among many means used in our country recent years. These methods are classified into six sets: 1. Method of spatial pattern; 2. Method of time process; 3. Method of seismic sequence; 4. Method of earthquake correlation; 5. Method of parameters of seismic source and medium; 6. Comprehensive method. Prediction effects of each method are evaluated with unique score. The value of each method, scoreR, are generally in a range between 0.3 and 0.6. This value only represents internal consistency, however, the ability of actual prediction belongs to the extensional effect, which is generally lower than the value of internal consistency. If the ability of actual prediction could be evaluated withR = 0.3, the ability of prediction of earthquake by seismicity will be stated as following: If most of earthquakes must be predicted, the warning time needs to take seventy percent of whole time period of prediction; If half earthquakes must be predicted, the warning time needs to take twenty percent of whole time period of prediction. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 239–252, 1993.     

Research on Algorithm M8 Applying to TIP Prediction of China's Strong Earthquake Cases in the Past Decades

This paper offers a positive research result of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes in North and Southwest China and their nearby areas since 1979 by using improved algorithm M8.The result showed that 14 of them were determined to occur within the times of increased probability.TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain.That means we have made quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.     

地磁方法在地震预报中的应用

１９８９ 年以来, 我们陆续提出转换函数法, 空间相关和加权差分法, 以及加卸载响应比法等３ 种地磁方法, 将其用于２００ 多个震例分析, 其中有１０６ 个地震作了正式的年度预报, 在９７个次危险区预报中, 有１５ 个地震的时间、地点和震级三要素的预报较为成功。     

An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl…     

我国地震谣言传播的现状、原因及政府应对策略

从基层地震工作者的视野,对地震预测预报存在的困难进行了探讨,讨论了地震学与社会地震学的相关性。结合现状,对相关仪器性能、人才队伍建设、日常工作与科学研究的关系、地震预测预报信心不足、科学研究与地震预测预报衔接等问题进行了一定的分析和描述。最后,结合地震预测预报岗位特征及工作现状提出了一点粗浅的建议与设想。     

地震频次的Hurst指数在地震预报中的应用

引用Hurst指数，对华北地区18次中强地震前地震活动频次的Hurst指数进行了分析和研究，总结出了中强地震前地震活动频次的Hurst指数H值的异常主化特征，同时，把该方法应用到了河南及邻区中等地震预报研究中，制定了预报规则，进行了预测内符检验和预报评分，结果表明，该方法是一种有效的中短期地震预报方法，具有推广应用价值。     

地震预报中的心理影响

介绍了在北部湾地震和万宁近海地震预报中的心理活动及其影响,初步探讨了心理因素的形成过程和降低其影响的措施。     

半年度地震趋势数值预测

采用自激励门限自回归模型(SETAR)对山西、河北平原带及郯庐带1970年以来半年度最高震级序列进行了分析计算,给出了1998年以来山西、河北平原带及郯庐带半年度最高预测震级。结果表明,该模型对半年度地震趋势预测具有良好的预测效果,这种建模方法有效,模型可信。     

地震预测方法概述

以国内外大量研究成果为基础,详细介绍了各种地震预测分析的方法,分析了潮汐力谐振-共振波法、电离地层常规-异常观测法、氢同位素法、GPS法、钻孔应力变化观测法、地应力法、水下异常观测法和电磁异常法等多种方法。明确了未来发展的需要和应关注的重点,对于地球圈中的物理-化学机制还有待进一步的研究;同时对未来地震预测的发展提出了一些建议,研究地震前兆的机理将是未来地震预测方法研究的要点和关键所在。     

年度地震预报的一种模糊综合评判方法

用文献（贺仲雄，１９８３）提出的一种模糊综合评判方法，对内蒙布特哈旗一带进行了地震年度预报研究。利用１９７１～１９８８年共１８年观测资料作为样本资料，对后１７年进行预报检验，取得了较好的结果。     

Application of fault diagnosis method in earthquake prediction

Thedevelopmentandthevariationoftheearthquakeprocessisaverycomplicatedoneandaffectedandlimitedbymanyfactors.Thekeyoftheaccuratepredictionistosetupadynamiccomprehensivepredictionmodelbasedonthecomprehensionoftheprecursorcharacteristicandtheattentionofthevariationwithtimeofthesefactors.Inthispaper,wetrytoapplythefaultdiagnosistectonictoeanhquakeprediction.Thefaultdiagnosistectonicisanapplicableboundaryscience.Thebasicideaistojudgeifthefaultoccurinthesystemandtodeterminewhereandwhenthefaultoccuran…     

基于震例研究的地震预测预报分析

对国内外45 例地震预测预报震例的相关资料与文献进行查证与整理,总结、分析了震例中采用的中长期预测方法、短临前兆异常以及预报结果。研究表明,对地震发生的时间、地点和震级三要素均明确预测的概率较低,且仅为三要素的粗略预测,准确预测地震目前尚难做到。中国在地震预测过程中更注重对短临前兆异常的观测,在震前小震活动异常、地下水化学组分、地下水状态、地磁、地电、地倾斜、地应力应变、电磁波异常、前震平静等前兆预测方法中,根据震前小震活动异常作出临震预测的成功率较高,可作为预测某些类型大震的重要参考指标之一;国外震例大多是对地震进行中长期预测,在中长期预测结果的基础上采取以“防”为主的防震减灾策略,长期预测的理论和方法比中国丰富。     

"边研究、边预报"利弊分析与发展建议

鉴于中国与美国、日本、俄罗斯等主要地震国家过去三四十年地震预报研究工作的科学思路和技术途径比较接近,主要区别是,中国始终坚持“边研究、边预报”,而其他国家,尤其是西方国家以科学研究为主,本文着重分析了“边研究、边预报”的必要性、优越性与带来的差距,并提出了3点发展建议。     

Geneticprogrammingforpredictionofearth┐quakesequencetype

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判断川滇有震、无震和后续地震的一种方法

本文对川滇地区1988年以来30次Ms≥5.0级地震前ML≥3.0级地震活动进行了分析。结果认为,中、强地震前ML≥3.0级地震活动的强度和频度曲线有一个非线性趋势增强的变化过程,曲线上升的非线性增强对整体区域一定时间段内有震、后续地震和无震的判断给出了震前地震活动的中、短期异常信息。     

Researchonpredictionofthefolowingnotice┐ableshocksofearthquakesequences

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Intermediate term earthquake prediction in the area of Greece: Application of the algorithm M8

The 3 strongest earthquakes,M7.0, which have occurred since 1973 in the area of Greece were preceded by a specific increase of the earthquake activity in the lower magnitude range. This activation is depicted by algorithm M8. This algorithm of intermediate term earthquake prediction was originally designed for diagnosis by Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) of the strongest earthquake,M8.0 worldwide (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1984). At present the algorithm is retrospectively tested for smaller magnitudes in different seismic regions (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1986, 1988). A TIP refers to a time period of 5 years and an area whose linear size is proportional and several times larger than that of the incipient earthquake source. Altogether the TIPs diagnosed by the algorithm M8 in the area of Greece occupy less than 20% and the Times of Expectation (TEs) about 10% of the total space-time domain considered. Also there is a current TIP for the southeastern Aegean sea and 1988–1992. It may specify the long-term prediction given inWyss andBaer (1981a,b).The results of this study are further evidence favoring applicability of algorithm M8 in diverse seismotectonic environment and magnitude ranges and support indirectly the hypothesis of self-similarity of the earthquake activity. It also implies the possibility of intermediate term prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the area of Greece.