Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay

Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down) water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case. Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to redistribute mass.     

Meteorological influences on sea level and water temperature in the lower Chesapeake Bay: 1992

The influence of atmospheric forcing on the flow and heat transports in the lower Chesapeake Bay and the adjacent coastal ocean were studied by comparing nontidal sea level and sea surface temperature variations in this region with meteorological data for 1992. Northeasterly and southwesterly winds caused the greatest changes in mean sea level (greater than 0.25 m) throughout the year. Northeastely winds caused a more rapid response than southwesterly winds, causing sea-level rises in less than 6 h. Barometric pressure changes typically contributed approximately 10% to extreme sea-level variations and were less influential than wind stress in most cases. Wind forcing was also responsible for summer events in which the horizontal water temperature gradient between two near-surface locations in the vicinity of the bay mouth vanished. These zero-gradient events corresponded to inflows and outflows at the bay's entrance caused by northeasterly and southwesterly winds, respectively. Wind-induced advection outside the lower Chesapeake Bay was additionally responsible for extreme heat flux variations. Heat gains and losses during the spring and fall occurred in pulsating events related to wind direction but were probably not connected to lower bay processes.     

Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo,Sri Lanka

The prediction of high extremes in sustained water level is very important for coastal engineering design and planning. The recorded historical water level datasets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, are not long enough for the traditional frequency analysis in predicting extreme water levels, such as 50-, 100- and 200-year extreme water levels. In this study, the integrated ADCIRC + SWAN hydrodynamic model and Monte Carlo model have been applied to predict extreme water level in Colombo station of Sri Lanka. The meteorological driving forces of cyclone storm surge are simulated by Monte Carlo stochastic model. The calibrated ADCIRC model with SWAN wave model is used to simulate the potential surge setups with the driving forces generated by Monte Carlo model. By ranking the maximum high water levels in each storm surge procedure, the estimation on extreme high water levels for the desired return period is proposed in this study. The estimated extreme high water levels with return period of 50, 100 and 200 years are 1.28, 1.40 and 1.50 m correspondingly. The estimated extreme high water levels are recommended for engineering design and planning.     

Tropical Storm and Hurricane wind effects on water level, salinity, and sediment transport in the river-influenced Atchafalaya-Vermilion Bay System, Louisiana, USA

Changes in circulation, water level, salinity, suspended sediments, and sediment flux resulted from Tropical Storm Frances and Hurricane Georges in the Vermilion-Atchafalaya Bay region during September 1998. Tropical Storm Frances made landfall near Port Aransas, Texas, 400 km west of the study area, and yet the strong and long-lived southeasterly winds resulted in the highest water levels and salinity values of the year at one station in West Cote Blanche Bay. Water levels were abnormally high across this coastal bay system, although salinity impacts varied spatially. Over 24 h, salinity increased from 5 to 20 psu at Site 1 on the east side of West Cote Blanche Bay. Abnormally high salinities were recorded in Atchafalaya Bay but not at stations in Vermilion Bay. On September 28, 1998, Hurricane Georges made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, 240 km east of the study area. On the west side of the storm, wind stress was from the north and maximum winds locally reached 14 m s⁻¹. The wind forcing and physical responses of the bay system were analogous to those experienced during a winter cold-front passage. During the strong, north wind stress period, coastal water levels fell, salinity decreased, and sediment-laden bay water was transported onto the inner shelf. As the north wind stress subsided, a pulse of relatively saline water entered Vermilion Bay through Southwest Pass increasing salinity from 5 to 20 psu over a 24-h period. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-14 reflectance imagery revealed the regional impacts of wind-wave resuspension and the bay-shelf exchange of waters. During both storm events, suspended solid concentrations increased by an order of magnitude from 75 to over 750 mg l⁻¹. The measurements demonstrated that even remote storm systems can have marked impacts on the physical processes that affect ecological processes in shallow coastal bay systems.     

Observations of currents and density structure across a buoyant plume front

Observations of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, plume during a flood event in April 1991 reveal significant differences in the current field on either side of a front associated with the buoyant plume. During a strong southeasterly wind, turbid, low salinity water from Mobile Bay was pushed through an opening in the west side of the ebb-tidal delta and moved parallel to the coast. A stable front developed between the low salinity water of the buoyant plume (11‰) and the high salinity coastal water (>23‰) that was being forced landward by the prevailing winds. Despite the shallow water depth of 6 m, measurements of currents, temperature, and salinity show large shears and density gradients in both the vertical and the horizontal directions. At a station outside of the buoyant plume, currents at 0.5 m and 1.5 m below the surface were in the same direction as the wind. Inside the plume, however, currents at 0.5 m below the surface were parallel to the coast, 45°, off the direction of the wind and the magnitude was 45% larger than the magnitude of the surface currents outside the plume. Beneath the level of the plume, the currents were identical to the wind-driven currents in the ambient water south of the front. Our observations suggest that the wind-driven surface currents of the ambient water converged with the buoyant plume at the front and were subducted beneath the plume. The motion of the ambient coastal surface water was in the direction of the local wind stress, however, the motion of the plume had no northerly component of motion. The plume also did not show any flow toward the front, suggesting a balance between the northerly component of wind stress and the southerly component of buoyant spreading. In addition, the motion of the plume did not appear to affect the motion of the underlying ambient water, suggesting a lack of mixing between the two waters.     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.     

Hurricane wind risk in Louisiana

A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hurricane Risk Calculator, is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Louisiana. The procedure provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that an area 100 km around the city of New Orleans can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 49 ms^?1 (44.3–53.7) [90 % confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 20 years. In comparison, for the same time period, the capital city of Baton Rouge and the surrounding area can expect to see hurricane winds of 43 ms^?1 (38.2–47.8) (90 % CI) or stronger. Hurricane track direction is also analyzed at the cities of interest. For Morgan City, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Alexandria, tropical cyclones with winds at least 18 ms^?1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.     

Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay: Physical and Chemical Evolution

Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is a large (around 18,000 km²) and shallow (few meters deep) lagoon located east of the Caspian Sea. Its water surface was several meters to several dozens cm lower than in the Caspian Sea, so water flows from the Caspian Sea through a narrow strait into the bay, where it evaporates. Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is one of the saltiest bodies of water in the world; its water salinity amounts to 270–300 g/l. Different kinds of salts available in this natural evaporative basin has been used commercially since at least the 1920s. In March 1980, in order to decelerate a continuous fall of the Caspian Sea level, which in 1977 was the lowest over the last 400 years (?29 m), the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Strait was dammed. In response to this human intervention, the bay had already dried up completely by November 1983. In 1992, the dam was destroyed, and Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay had been filling up with the Caspian Sea water at a rate of about 1.7 m/year up to 1996 as observed by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry mission. Since then, Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay level evolution with characteristic seasonal and interannual oscillations has been similar to that of the Caspian Sea. Physical and chemical evolution of the bay in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is traced in detail in the paper.     

Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations

Estimates of return periods of extreme sea level events along the coast are useful for impact assessment. In this study, a vertically integrated 2D model was developed for the simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The bathymetry for the model was derived from an improved ETOPO-5 data set, which was prepared in our earlier work. The meteorological forcing for the model was obtained from the cyclone model of Holland using the data available for 136 low-pressure systems that occurred during 1974–2000 in the Bay of Bengal. The simulated total sea level and the surge component were obtained for each event. The simulated peak levels showed good agreement with the observations available at few stations. The annual maxima of sea levels, extracted from the simulations, were fitted with Gumbel distribution using r-largest annual maxima method to estimate the 5- and 50-year return periods of extreme events at 26 stations along the east coast of India. The return periods estimated from simulated sea levels showed good agreement with those obtained from observations. The 5- and 50-year return levels of total sea level along the east coast of India show a considerable increase from south to north, with the 50-year return total sea levels being as high as 6.9 and 8.7 m at stations along the north eastern coast such as Sagar Island and Chandipur, respectively. The high return levels are expected at these stations as the cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal generally move north or north-west, producing extreme events in the northern part, and moreover, these stations are characterized by high tidal ranges. However, at some regions in the southern part such as Surya Lanka and Machilipatnam, though 50-year return levels of total sea level are not very high (2.98 and 2.97 m, respectively) because of the relatively lower tidal ranges, high return levels of surges (0.84 and 0.57 m, respectively) are found. In addition to the role of shallow depths (5.0 and 6.1 m, respectively) at the two stations, the high return levels of surges are attributed to the effect of geometrical configuration at Surya Lanka and width (100 km) and orientation of continental shelf at Machilipatnam.     

The role of stratification in the deoxygenation of Mobile Bay and adjacent shelf bottom waters

Oxygen depletion in the shallow bottom waters of Mobile Bay, Alabama, and in adjacent nearshore and continental shelf waters, is shown to be directly related to the intensity of water column stratification. Low winds speeds are coincidental with the onset of water column stratification and the occurrence of hypoxic events. Hourly, daily, and seasonal changes in the relationship between percent oxygen saturation or oxygen concentration in the bottom waters and surface-bottom density differences indicate that the oxidized materials are recently formed, and not relic or overwintering carbon sources. The influence of density structure (water column stratification) in other oxygen-depleted coastal water masses is compared to Mobile Bay.     

Response of resource excavations in Mobile Bay, Alabama, to extreme forcing

Fossil reef deposits of the American oyster,Crassostrea virginica, are a common component of the near surface sediments in the middle and upper reaches of Mobile Bay, northern Gulf of Mexico. Mining of these deposits occurred from 1946 through 1982 in open areas of undisturbed bay bottom, outside of the shipping channel corridors, in water depths of 3–5 m. The mining process resulted in the formation of pit to furrow-shaped depressions with elevated rims at some sites and troughs and ridges in other areas. Studies carried out in the early 1970s predicted normal physical processes would restore the bottom to pre-shell mining conditions within 1 yr, thus minimizing any long-term effects on the Mobile Bay estuary. However, over the period 1974–1976 unfilled excavations, some with raised rims and ridges, were observed where mining had occurred 3–5 yr earlier. In addition, the depressions tended to be sites of relatively high salinity, hypoxic to anoxic water. In 1992–1993, close grid bathymetric surveys produced no indication of either depressions or raised features at any of the old mining sites. Evidence suggests this leveling of the bay’s bathymetry was the result of two major hurricanes, Frederic in 1979 and Elena in 1985, which mobilized and redistributed significant quantities of sediments within Mobile Bay. These findings indicate currents and waves associated with Mobile Bay’s normal tidal activity and annual recurrent storms were acting very slowly to refill depressions and flatten elevated features. In contrast, the direct impact of major hurricanes appears to have served as an effetive agent to return Mobile Bay’s bathymetry to a state similar to pre-shell mining conditions.     

Anthropogenic effects and climate change threats on the flood diversion of Erchung Floodway in Tanshui River,northern Taiwan

Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The risk of the strongest hurricane winds over the North Atlantic basin is analyzed using a statistical model from extreme value theory and a tessellation of the domain. The spatial variation in model parameters is shown, and an estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.     

Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change

For consideration of structural design of buildings and infrastructure in Australia, this paper presents hazard modelling and mapping of extreme wind gusts under the current climate and likely future climate change. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are applied to analyse the daily extreme wind gust data recorded between 1939 and 2007 at 545 anemometer stations around Australia. The estimated hazards are compared with the regional design wind speeds specified by the structural design standard, AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. Our results indicate that, under the current climate, structures in the areas on the west of and around Brisbane, Queensland and Newcastle, New South Wales, may be under higher gust hazard than they are designed for. Sensitivity study shows that these areas are also sensitive to the projected synoptic wind intensity changes. When subjected to ±20 % intensity change and ±50 % occurrence frequency change of tropical cyclones, the northwest coast of Western Australia, the northern part of Northern Territory, and the northeast coast between Cairns and Townsville, Queensland, will experience around ±10 m/s changes in extreme wind gust speeds of 500-year return period.     

Salinity stratification in a river-dominated estuary

Analysis of salinity data from Mobile Bay indicates that stratification-destratification events within this broad, shallow estuary are not uncommon. These events are related to the strength of the winds, through their influence on wave generation and subsequent bottom drag coefficient increases, and to the strength of river discharge. They do not appear to be due to the strength of tidal currents, as has been observed elsewhere. Furthermore, river flow appears to be the dominant control, the winds being important only in the absence of large freshwater discharges. The annual spring freshet can flush most of the salt from the bay. During other times of the year the relative strengths of river discharge and wind stress change the bay from highly stratified to nearly homogeneous and back on a variety of time scales ranging from daily to seasonal.     

Correction to: Tropical cyclone: expressions for velocity components and stability parameter

Historically, Leyte Gulf in central eastern Philippines has received catastrophic damage due to storm surges, the most recent of which was during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. A city-level risk assessment was performed on Leyte Gulf through synthetic storm generation, high-resolution ocean modeling, and decision tree analyses. Cyclones were generated through a combination of a Poisson point process and Monte Carlo simulations. Wind and pressure fields generated from the cyclones were used in a storm surge model of Leyte Gulf developed on Delft3D. The output of these simulations was a synthetic record of extreme sea level events, which were used to estimate maximum surge heights for different return periods and to characterize surge-producing storm characteristics using decision tree analyses. The results showed that the area most prone to surges is the Tacloban–Basey area with a 2.8?±?0.3 m surge occurring at a frequency of every 50 years. Nearby Palo area will likely receive a surge of 1.9?±?0.4 m every 50 years while Giporlos–Salcedo area a surge of 1.0?±?0.1 m. The decision tree analysis performed for each of these areas showed that for surges of 3–4 m, high-velocity winds (>?30 m/s) are consistently the main determining factor. For the areas, Tacloban, Basey, and Giporlos–Salcedo, wind speed was also the main determining factor for surge?>?4 m.     

Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions

Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.     

Changes in seasonal water transport in a Louisiana estuary,Fourleague Bay,Louisiana

Water transport in Fourleague Bay is strongly influenced by the discharge of the Atchafalaya River and prevailing wind conditions. In three 50-h intensive surveys, we measured transport through the major inlets of the bay during the three major river discharge/weather regimes of the year: strong frontal passage, high river flow, and calm, low river flow. Wind stress caused significant changes in both transport and water levels. North winds, dominant during winter frontal passages, caused a net export of water. During the high river flow survey, southeasterly winds created an opposing hydraulic pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico, diverting river flow into Fourleague Bay. This resulted in an increase in water elevation and the inundation of adjacent marshes. We believe that this high-discharge, southerly wind condition is the major mechanism leading to sheet flow and sedimentation on the marsh. Calm, low-discharge conditions, typical of late summer, produced classic tidally-dominated circulation.     

Meteotsunami in the Great Lakes and on the Atlantic coast of the United States generated by the “derecho” of June 29–30, 2012

Tsunami-like intense sea-level oscillations, associated with atmospheric activity (meteorological tsunamis), are common in the Great Lakes and on the East Coast of the United States. They are generated by various types of atmospheric disturbances including hurricanes, frontal passages, tornados, trains of atmospheric gravity waves, and derechos. “Derecho” is a rapidly moving line of convectively induced intense thunder storm fronts producing widespread damaging winds and squalls. The derecho of June 29–30, 2012 devastatingly propagated from western Iowa to the Atlantic coast, passing more than 1,000 km and producing wind gusts up to 35 m/s. This derecho induced pronounced seiche oscillations in Lake Michigan, Chesapeake Bay, and along the US Atlantic coast. Sea-level records from the updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauge network, together with the NOAA and automated surface-observing system air pressure and wind records, enabled us to examine physical properties and temporal/spatial variations of the generated waves. Our findings indicate that the generation mechanisms of extreme seiches in the basins under study are significantly different: energetic winds play the main role in seiche formation in Chesapeake Bay; atmospheric pressure disturbances are most important for the Atlantic coast; and the combined effect of pressure oscillations and wind is responsible for pronounced events in the Great Lakes. The “generation coefficient,” which is the ratio of the maximum observed sea-level height and the height of air pressure disturbance, was used to map the sea-level response and to identify “hot spots” for this particular event, i.e., harbors and bays with amplified seiche oscillations. The Froude number, Fr = U/c, where U is the speed of the atmospheric disturbance and c is the long-wave speed, is the key parameter influencing the water response to specific atmospheric disturbances; the maximum response was found for those regions and disturbance parameters for which Fr ~1.0.     

Temporal variability in summertime bottom hypoxia in shallow areas of Mobile Bay,Alabama

This paper addresses temporal variability in bottom hypoxia in broad shallow areas of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Time-series data collected in the summer of 2004 from one station (mean depth of 4 m) exhibit bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) variations associated with various time scales of hours to days. Despite a large velocity shear, stratification was strong enough to suppress vertical mixing most of the time. Bottom DO was closely related to the vertical salinity gradient (ΔS). Hypoxia seldom occurred when ΔS (over 2.5 m) was <2 psu and occurred almost all the time when ΔS was >8 psu in the absence of extreme events like hurricanes. Oxygen balance between vertical mixing and total oxygen demand was considered for bottom water from which oxygen demand and diffusive oxygen flux were estimated. The estimated decay rates at 20°C ranging between 0.175–0.322 d⁻¹ and the corresponding oxygen consumption as large as 7.4 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ fall at the upper limit of previously reported ranges. The diffusive oxygen flux and the corresponding vertical diffusivity estimated for well mixed conditions range between 8.6–9.5 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.6–2.9 m² d⁻¹, respectively. Mobile Bay hypoxia is likely to be associated with a large oxygen demand, supported by both water column and sediment oxygen demands, so that oxygen supply from surface water during destratification events would be quickly exhausted to return to hypoxic conditions within a few hours to days after destratification events are terminated.