呼图壁MS6.2地震跨断层形变场地资料异常变化分析

对北天山地区2016年12月8日呼图壁M_S6.2地震周边300 km范围内跨断层精密水准资料进行分析,运用二倍均方差对异常进行判定,计算出2012～2016年断层的趋势累积率Dc,认为地震前存在着一定范围的应力积累、加速运动、尖点突跳等中短期前兆异常,地震发生在形变异常显著及断层形变趋势累积率高值区域。     

基于GPS技术的2016年呼图壁M_S6.2地震形变特征研究

利用2013~2017年3期GPS观测资料,通过结合区域构造背景分析呼图壁MS6.2地震震中及附近区域水平运动速率、主应变率、面膨胀率及最大剪应变率动态变化特征。结果表明,呼图壁地震前发震构造南部区域地壳速率高于北部区域运动速率,造成发震构造两盘运动速率不同,地壳能量积蓄。呼图壁地震释放了区域积蓄的应变能量,由于区域构造因素,影响范围较小。震前震中附近区域处于压缩环境,易于聚集应变能量;震时震中区出现面膨胀等值线密集高梯度带,是地壳应变能量交换和释放剧烈区域。震中区最大剪应变变化不大,反映呼图壁地震逆冲性质,最大剪应变高值区对地震危险性有预示作用。     

景泰M_S4.7地震前的定点形变异常

2014年11月15日,在甘肃省白银市景泰县发生MS4.7地震,震源深度10km。在震中附近200km以内,甘肃省地震局共安装架设有14台各类形变观测仪器。本文通过对这些形变观测仪产出的分钟值观测资料做小波分析发现,在地震前1个月内共有11台(套)形变观测仪记录到了异常变化。其中:SSY、TJ、DSQ、SSQ型观测仪记录到异常的同步性非常好;CZB型观测仪记录到的异常比较乱,没有固定的规律。通过对这些异常变化的总结能够为地震预测提供一定的判断依据。     

2016年12月8日新疆呼图壁MS6.2地震震害调查分析

2016年12月8日,新疆呼图壁县发生6.2级地震,造成3人轻伤。地震灾区主要涉及昌吉回族自治州昌吉市、呼图壁县、玛纳斯县等市、县的共25个乡、镇（团场）及呼图壁县城、玛纳斯县城等城市的部分区域,灾区面积12450km2。本文在概述震区地震构造环境及地貌特点的基础上,依据《地震现场工作（第4部分）:灾害直接损失评估》等规范,介绍了各结构类型房屋和生命线系统的破坏情况及震区地震地质灾害的类型,分析表明此次地震直接经济损失以土木结构和砖木结构的破坏为主,安居富民工程在地震中起到了关键的减灾作用。     

呼图壁MS6.2地震前后重力变化特征分析

文中基于北天山地区2013—2018年期间的流动重力观测资料,详细分析了2016年12月8日呼图壁MS6. 2地震前、后区域重力场的时空分布特征及其与地震发生的关系,结果表明:1)重力变化等值线与断裂的走向基本一致,震前震中附近存在四象限分布,呼图壁MS6. 2地震发生在四象限分布的中心附近; 2)区域重力变化及点值时间序列显示震中区域积蓄的能量在地震后得到了释放,震中附近区域震后逐渐趋于稳态; 3)震前区域重力场的时空演化图像表现为"稳态—区域性重力异常—四象限分布特征性异常—反向变化发震"的系统演化过程。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前新疆定点形变异常初析

昆仑山口西 8.1级地震发生在新疆形变监测台网的东南 ,距震中 70 0— 1 2 0 0 km范围内有 6台项资料显示出地壳形变前兆异常。分析认为地壳形变异常具有一定的阶段性特征 ,中短期异常多出现在 NS向 ,8.1级地震前 2 0天 EW向出现加速或反向突变 ,临震前 4天重力仪记录到强烈的地脉动异常。这些异常的出现与 2 0 0 0— 2 0 0 1年中国西部地区 3次明显的地壳水平运动在时间上有一定的相关性。     

2008年8月30日新疆和静Ms5．6地震前形变资料异常分析

2008年8月30日新疆和静5.6级地震发生在2008年度新疆划定的5.5级左右地震危险区内.对该次地震前天山中段地区定点形变资料出现的异常变化进行了分析和总结,和静5.6级地震前近场定点形变资料存在明显的趋势异常背景,有一定比例的中短期和短期异常显示,无突出短临异常,地震发生在短期异常相对集中的地区.地震发生后所有中短期和短期异常结束,但多数趋势异常仍在持续,因此,北天山西段和南天山东段地区可能仍处于中强地震的中期孕震阶段.     

2012年8月12日于田M_S6.2地震序列特征及前兆异常

以2012年8月12日于田MS6.2地震为研究对象。于田MS6.2地震的地震活动性异常为少震区的长时间平静和中等地震的集中活动;前兆异常为和田水平摆东西向趋势转折,矢量方向由北西向转为北东向,东西向产生时序破年变,以及和田土层应力发生了年变畸变。     

近年新疆地震活动期间定点形变特征分析

对1999年以来新疆定点形变观测资料进行了分析。重点以基于突变异常理论的异常强度方法,对近期一组中强地震活动前后形变场的异常变化进行了动态分析,表明形变资料能够反映出一定程度的中短期、短临前兆异常,异常强度方法能够检验出大于阈值2的短期异常。     

STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAVITY VARIATION BEFORE AND AFTER HUTUBI MS6.2 EARTHQUAKE

The Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake of December 8, 2016 is a pure thrust event in the northern Tianshan thrust fold belt. The earthquake occurred between the Qigu Fault and the Junggar southern margin fault, which are both thrust faults. Based on mobile gravity measurements from 2013 to 2018 in the northern Tianshan, the gravity net adjustment was accomplished using Urumqi absolute gravity observation point as the datum, and the absolute gravity value of surface observation points were obtained. In order to eliminate the seasonal effect on gravity variation, the paper uses the observation data in May per annual as studying objects and obtains the temporal-spatial dynamic evolution images of gravity field differences in the northern Tianshan at different time scales as well as the time series of gravity variation of some points in the adjacent area of the epicenter. The characteristics of regional gravity variation before and after the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake on December 8, 2016 and their relations are analyzed systematically. The results show that: 1)The gravity variations in the study area are dramatic in generally, and the contours of gravity variation are consistent with the main faults basically. There was a four-quadrant distribution near the epicenter before the earthquake, and the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake occurred near the center of the four-quadrant distribution and at the turn of the gravity variation contour. The three years' cumulative gravity variation before the earthquake and the gravity variation after the earthquake are inversed, and the variation amplitudes are equivalent, suggesting that the M_S6.2 earthquake has released the stress and the energy accumulated before the earthquake. 2)This paper focuses on the analysis of gravity variation at the observation points on both sides of the Junggar southern margin fault near the epicenter. Regional gravity variation and gravity time series show that gravity variations at the same side of the Junggar southern margin fault are basically consistent, however, gravity variations at the different sides of the Junggar southern margin fault are different from each other obviously, indicating the difference of material migration laws in different structural regions. In addition, the strain energy accumulated in the epicenter is basically released after the earthquake, and the area nearby the epicenter tends to be stable. 3)The Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake occurred near the center of the four-quadrant and at the turn of the high-gradient zone of gravity variation, reflecting the location of strong earthquake is related to the distribution of four-quadrant of regional gravity variation, the high-gradient zone of regional gravity variation and its turn. It has a unique advantage in determining the location of strong earthquake using gravity variation results. The regional spatial-temporal gravity variation before the earthquake is manifested as a systematic evolution process of “steady state→regional gravity anomaly→four-quadrant distribution→earthquake occurring in the reverse process”. Studying the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of gravity field before and after Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake has important practical significance for understanding the occurrence law of large earthquakes and capturing the precursory information of earthquakes.     

RELOCATION OF THE HUTUBI MS6.2 EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE ON 8 DECEMBER 2016 AND ANALYSIS OF THE SEISMOGENIC STRUCTURE

Based on the digital waveforms of Xinjiang Seismic Network, the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake sequence (M_L ≥ 1.0) was relocated precisely by HypoDD.The best double-couple focal mechanisms of the main shock and aftershocks of M_L ≥ 4.0 were determined by the CAP method. We analyzed the characteristics of spatial distribution, focal mechanisms and the seismogenic structure of earthquake sequence. The results show that the main shock is located at 43.775 9°N, 86.363 4°E; the depth of the initial rupture and centriod is about 15.388km and 17km. The earthquake sequence extends unilaterally along NWW direction with an extension length of about 15km and a depth ranging 5~15km. The characteristics of the depth profiles show that the seismogenic fault plane dips northward and the faulting is dominated by thrusting. The nodal planes parameters of the best double-couple focal mechanisms are:strike 292°, dip 62° and rake 80° for nodal plane I, and strike 132°, dip 30° and rake 108° for nodal plane Ⅱ, indicating that the main shock is of thrust faulting. The dip of nodal planeⅠis consistent with the dip of the depth profile, which is inferred to be the fault plane of seismogenic fault of this earthquake. According to the comprehensive analysis of the relocation results, the focal mechanism and geological structure in the source region, it is preliminarily inferred that the seismogenic structure of the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake may be a backthrust on the deeper concealed thrust slope at the south of Qigu anticline. The earthquake is a "folding" earthquake taking place under the stress field of Tianshan expanding towards the Junggar Basin.     

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE SEISMOGENIC STRUCTURE OF THE HUTUBI MS6.2 EARTHQUAKE

Based on the phase report of Xinjiang Seismic Network, the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake sequence M_L ≥ 1.0 was relocated by the HypoDD method. The results show that the aftershocks were distributed along NE and NW direction. The aftershocks were in the depths of 5~15km. In addition, by using the digital waveforms of Xinjiang Seismic Network, the best double-couple focal mechanism of the main shock and some aftershocks of M_S ≥ 3.8 were determined by the CAP method. Based on the above studies, the source depth, focal mechanism and aftershock distribution of the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake were analyzed and the seismogenic structure was discussed. The nodal plane parameters of the best double-couple focal mechanism are strike 144°, dip 26°, rake 118°, and strike 293°, dip 67°, rake 77°, respectively. The moment magnitude M_W is about 5.9, with centroid depth of 15.2km. These show that the main shock was a thrust type. Most focal mechanism solutions of the aftershocks were shown as a thrust type, which are similar to the main shock. It is speculated that the possible seismogenic fault of this earthquake is the Huorgosi-Manas-Tugulu Fault.     

2008年8月30日和静M_S5.6地震序列及震前部分测震学异常分析

简要介绍了2008年8月30日新疆和静MS5.6地震的基本参数、震源机制解、地震序列特征和局部构造应力场等,分析了地震前震源区周围及相关构造区域出现的中、短期地震活动异常特征。结果显示,该序列为主-余型,余震活动呈间歇式,衰减迅速,震源断错性质为走滑型。震前震源区东侧存在长时间4级地震平静、3级地震围空及多台地震波振幅比的异常等现象,同时在地震发生前1~3个月出现了短期异常,表现为振幅比异常的回返、空区瓦解和地震窗的异常。依据多种异常变化,在震前对该地震做出了三要素准确的短期预报。     

2003年新疆石河子5.4级地震前地震活动异常分析

分析了2003年2月14日石河子5．4级地震前北天山地震活动图像和地震学参数异常过程。5．4级地震发生在2002年北天山4级地震集中活动区空段，震前12项地震学参数时间进程存在中、短期异常，3项地震波参数出现短期异常。震前3个月乌鲁木齐震情窗出现超警戒线异常。震前10天震中附近地区地震和震群活动显著。     

宁波台水氡、水位在汶川8．0、日本9．0级地震中异常现象分析

宁波台ZK03井水氡在汶川8．0和日本9．0级地震前后出现的异常,可能是这两次地震的前兆异常和震后效应,并且出现的异常有较多相似之处。从水氡五日均值曲线来看,震前11个月开始就出现了异常,五日均值最大异常量都出现在异常结束前5个月,形成了一个“V”字形的中短期低值异常形态。同井观测的动水位同震响应也较相似,说明这两次地震波传播中对该井的水动力作用基本相同,因此也可能会出现相似的水氡中短期异常现象。     

新疆及周边7级强震前地下流体异常时空演化特征

应用从属函数、变差率、趋势速率等方法分析并总结了新疆及周边地区1985年以来的9次7级以上地震的流体前兆异常特征.主要特征表现为:异常时间主要集中在震前2～4年内;震前异常测项占全部测项的一半以上;随着发震时间的临近,异常项数呈现出逐渐增多—急剧增加—快速减少;异常的时空分布总体上存在着由外围向震中迁移的现象.     

2003年2月14日石河子M5.4地震地形变异常及其演化分析

分析了新疆石河子M5.4地震前震中250 km范围内定点形变的观测资料,认为从2002年5月到震前,单测项异常随时间起伏,多台异常在时间上连续发展并呈增加趋势,震前20天位于震中附近的台站出现临震突变;异常在空间呈现由西向东、由南向北,逐渐向震中区发展的态势.与1996年沙湾M5.2地震前的形变异常进行比较,认为存在较大的差异.     

2009年2月20日柯坪5．2级地震前异常分析

分析了2009年2月20日柯坪5．2级地震前柯坪块体地震活动和前兆异常。柯坪5．2级地震前5、6级地震异常平静,4级地震平静达到了“十五”项目总结的异常指标,且震前1个半月2级以上地震“成片”向震中附近地区迁移;震前乌什水管仪、阿合奇地倾斜和巴楚土层应力存在不同程度的中短期异常和临震异常。