Interrelation of the intraseasonal precipitation variability over Eurasia to the Eliassen-Palm flux characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere

Conditional averages of principal components of the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence variability are projected onto the daily precipitation amounts chart. The conditions of calculating the average values are determined by the dates classified in three equiprobable precipitation categories. The classification and calculation of characteristics are performed for the summer and winter seasons. Using the rotated principal component analysis, several regions are revealed of statistically significant interrelation between extreme precipitation and the first EP flux divergence variability modes, a simplified exploratory interpretation of interrelations is given and several recommendations are formulated for correcting seasonal forecasts of meteorological conditions with the use of results obtained.     

欧亚大陆极端降水事件的区域变化特征

近年来,在全球变暖的背景下,极端气候事件特别是极端降水事件,发生频率愈发上升。本文使用美国气候预测中心提供的逐日降水资料,统计分析了1979—2018年期间欧亚大陆各个子区域极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)从气候态的空间分布特征来看,南欧、南亚、东南亚、东亚地区为欧亚大陆全年总降水量高值区,同时也是极端强降水频发地区;而东亚地区青藏高原、中国中西部至蒙古一带,南亚地区印度次大陆以及中亚、西亚等地的部分地区则是连续性干旱事件的高频区,极端强降水事件发生频次较少;2)在21世纪初之后,东南亚、南亚、东亚、北亚、西亚和南欧这6个地区的全年总降水量发生年代际增加,且在研究时段呈显著增加趋势。在过去近40 a,南亚、东亚和中亚的RX1day(日最大降水量)、RX5day(连续5 d最大降水量)、中雨日数(R10mm)、大雨日数(R20mm)自20世纪90年代中期年代际增加,且呈长期增加趋势。南亚、北亚、东亚、中亚这4个地区的最大连续干旱日数在20世纪80年代初显著增加,但长期趋势并不显著。需要指出的是,自2014年起极端强降水事件在东南亚、南亚和东亚地区持续增多,而连续性干旱事件在北欧地区持续增多。     

应用NASA MERRA再分析资料对一次高原切变线的诊断分析

高原切变线是影响青藏高原及其下游地区重要的降水天气系统,也是高原气象学研究的重点和热点。本文回顾了近10 a高原切变线的研究进展,包括高原切变线的时空分布及其与暴雨的关系、高原切变线的结构特征及演变机制、高原切变线与高原低涡的相互作用等。在此基础上,对未来高原切变线研究的主要方面进行了展望,以期加深对高原切变线的认识,为青藏高原及其下游地区灾害性天气研究和预报预警提供参考依据。

     

福建省台风灾害风险评估与区划

利用1980—2013年7月1日—9月30日中国东南地区818个国家地面气象站小时降水资料以及台风6 h路径观测数据分离出台风降水后,采用最大似然估计法得到台风小时降水Gamma概率密度函数分布的形状参数α和尺度参数β,并对代表站点上Gamma分布模拟的小时降水概率分布与观测的小时降水频率分布进行对比分析;最后,基于Gamma分布模拟,得到台风小时降水总的降水概率分布特征以及不同台风影响距离和台风强度影响下超过给定阈值的降水累积概率分布与极端降水阈值。结果表明:我国东南地区台风降水总的特征是小时降水超过5 mm多发地区位于华南、华东沿海地区;其余大部分地区不易发生超过5 mm的小时降水量;广东沿海、广西南部、海南西北部,小时降水超过10 mm的累积概率为10%~15%;小时雨量超过20 mm阈值的概率极低;在近距离台风影响下,随着台风强度增大,95%累积概率小时降水阈值为15~20 mm的区域由福建和广东沿海以及海南变为湛江和海南,而阈值为10~15 mm的地区由两广浙闽地区变为广东、福建和江苏沿海以及浙江;就远距离台风而言,随着台风强度增大,东南地区出现台风降水的区域逐渐由东南沿海向内陆延伸;海南、广东、福建和江西为远距离强台风影响下95%累积概率对应的小时降水阈值较高地区。

     

Interrelation of total precipitation over Eurasia with atmospheric centers of action of the northern hemisphere and with major modes of the North Atlantic surface temperature variability

Conventional average values of Wallace-Gutzler indices for the regional circulations and average values of major variability components of the fields of the North Atlantic surface temperature anomalies are plotted on the geographical map used to analyze the total daily precipitation fields. The computation conditions of average values are defined by the dates classified according to three equiprobable gradations of total precipitation. A projection of conditional average values to the precipitation field points enables to estimate the atmospheric and oceanic “tracks” within the marked out gradations of total precipitation. The stratification and computation of characteristics are carried out for the summer and winter seasons. Large regions are revealed of statistically significant interrelation of the atmospheric circulation and major components of variability of the sea surface temperature anomalies with the extreme gradations of total precipitation for summer and winter seasons. The recommendations are formulated for the use of obtained results in the practice of the seasonal forecasting of meteorological conditions.     

长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合

基于长江流域147个气象站1960-2005年最大值降水序列(AM)与超门限峰值降水序列(POT),选取4大类20种分布函数,采用极大似然法和线性矩法估算了参数,经柯尔莫洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验,确定了降水极值的最优概率模型.对AM与POT两套极端强降水序列的频率分析均表明,Wakeby分布函数能够较好的拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布.同时指出了降水极值的拟合存在的不确定性.     

Changes in urban-related precipitation in the summer over three city clusters in China

The impacts of urban surface expansion on the summer precipitations over three city clusters [Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD)] in eastern China under different monsoonal circulation backgrounds were explored using the nested fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model version 3.7 (MM5 V3.7), including the urban-related thermal and dynamical parameters. Ten-year integrations were performed using satellite image data from 2000 and 2010 to represent the urban surface distributions and expansions in China. Changes in the precipitation revealed obvious subregional characteristics, which could be explained by the influences of the vertical wind velocity and moisture flux. With urban-related warming, vertical wind motion generally intensified over urban surface-expanded areas. Meanwhile, the increase in impervious surface areas induced rapid rainwater runoff into drains, and the Bowen ratio increased over urban areas, which further contributed to changes in the local moisture fluxes in these regions. The intensities of the changes in precipitation were inconsistent over the three city clusters, although the changes in vertical motion and local evaporation were similar, which indicates that the changes in precipitation cannot be solely explained by the changes in the local evaporation-related moisture flux. The changes in precipitation were also influenced by the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and the corresponding moisture flux, which are expressed in marked subregional characteristics. Therefore, the influence of urban-related precipitation over the three city clusters in China, for which changes in moisture flux from both the impacted local evaporation and EASM circulation should be considered, varied based on the precipitation changes of only a single city.     

Analysis of Turbulence Characteristics over the Northern Tibetan Plateau Area

Based on CAMP/Tibet [Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) Asia-Australia Monsoon Project (CAMP) on the Tibetan Plateau] turbulent data collected at the Bujiao (BJ) site of the Nagqu area, the turbulent structure and transportation characteristics in the near surface layer during summer are analyzed. The main results show that the relationship between the normalized standard deviation of 3D wind speed and stability satisfies the similarity law under both unstable and stable stratifications. The relations of normalized standard deviation of temperature and specific humidity to stability only obey the “?1/3 power law” under unstable conditions. In the case of stable stratifications, their relations to stability are dispersing. The sensible heat dominates in the dry period, while in the wet period, the latent heat is larger than the sensible heat.     

欧亚冬季温带反气旋活动的气候特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,通过判定和追踪温带反气旋的客观方法统计分析了1948-2013年欧亚地区冬季温带反气旋的生成、消亡、移动、生命史、强度等气候特征。结果表明,反气旋的主要源地位于蒙古高原、伊朗及其周边地区、地中海沿岸、中西伯利亚、波罗的海西北部、俄罗斯东北部等地,其中,蒙古高原和伊朗等地也是强反气旋最主要的源地。反气旋活动的大值分布区和反气旋生成的大值中心分布十分相似,主要活跃区对应低空平均经向温度梯度大值区和高空脊前。除源于蒙古高原和西伯利亚东北部的强、弱反气旋的移动距离差别不明显外,其他地区的反气旋移动距离与强度有密切关系。持续1-2 d的反气旋占总数的44.2%,而只有3.2%的反气旋生命史超过一周,且强反气旋比弱反气旋更易持续较长时间。      

华东地区夏季不同等级降水变化特征分析

采用华东地区78个气象站点逐日降水资料,根据日降水量的5个等级划分,应用线性趋势分析、相关分析等分析了不同等级降水频率和降水量的空间分布及其变化趋势。结果表明:(1)夏季不同等级降水频率在整个华东地区具有明显的地区差异,区域平均的降水频率由大到小依次为小雨、微量降水、中雨、大雨、暴雨。(2)平均的夏季总降水量呈南多北少的分布,各等级降水对总降水量的贡献率由大到小依次为暴雨、大雨、中雨、小雨,暴雨对夏季总降水量的贡献在某些年份可达50%以上。(3)区域平均的夏季降水日数呈下降趋势,但总降水量却有明显的增大趋势。(4)区域平均的某等级降水频率正异常时,华东地区各地该等级降水频率,亦多表现为正异常,尤其中雨以上等级降水频率异常符号在整个华东地区更为一致。(5)华东区域微量降水和小雨发生频率分别与其他等级降水存在显著的反相关关系,而中雨、大雨、暴雨三者发生频率之间无显著相关。     

中国北方冬季降水的多源资料产品评估和融合优化

为了考察不同来源降水产品在中国北方冬季（特别是固态降水）的精度和可用性,优化融合降水产品质量,利用2019年12月—2020年2月美国CMORPH和IMERGE卫星反演降水、日本GSMaP、中国气象局雷达定量估测降水（MOC-QPE）、CMA-MESO模式预报以及地面观测插值等不同来源分析的降水产品,以地面站观测逐小时降水量数据为基准,从KGE评分、相关系数、平均误差和均方根误差等精度统计指标以及命中率（FOD）、虚警率（FAR）和TS评分等降水事件发生角度开展评估,结果表明:中国区域单源降水产品中地面插值分析产品对冬季降水描述精度最高也最稳定,但存在明显的系统偏低;其次是MOC-QPE和IMERG卫星产品,对中国北方偏南部地区的降水有一定的描述能力,但对北方高纬度地区固态降水的反映能力较差;卫星产品中IMERG精度最高,CMORPH则基本没有反演能力;CMA-MSEO模式产品虽然误差较大但与地面站观测的降水特别是固态降水存在较高相关,明显优于雷达和IMERG、GSMaP等卫星产品。采用BMA技术融合雷达、模式、卫星降水形成优化背景场,评估逐步引入不同的数据源对融合降水在冬季的精度影响,引入IMERG卫星和CMA-MESO模式产品均能提升高分辨率融合产品的质量,其中模式产品的改进效果最显著。      

The characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning activity in hailstorms over northern China

The characteristics of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning for ten hailstorms in Shandong Province of China were analyzed statistically. It is found that the hailstorms in this study present dominant positive CG flashes during periods of falling hail. One specific hailstorm on 16 June 2006 was studied in detail using the data from a CG lightning location network, Doppler radar and cloud images. Comparison between the brightness temperature of cloud-top and CG flash locations indicated that most flashes occurred in the region with temperatures lower than − 40 °C, while dense positive CG flashes occurred in the range between − 40 °C and − 50 °C. Negative CG flashes occurred mostly in the relative weak radar echo region, and positive CG flashes were distributed in the strong echo region especially with a large gradient of echo intensity. CG flashes tended to occur in the cloud region with reflectivity between 25 dBZ and 35 dBZ. Comparison between the wind field retrieved from Doppler radar and the location of CG flashes indicated that the flashes were located in the convergent region at lower to middle levels.     

Variations of characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over northern Thailand

The Chao Phraya basin, Thailand, is frequently inundated by flooding during the southwest monsoon period. Most floods coincide with consecutive rainfall days. This study investigated consecutive rainfall days during the southwest monsoon period at 11 stations over northern Thailand, the upstream area of this basin. The Markov chain probability model was used to study the consecutiveness of days with at least 0.1, 10.1, and 35.1 mm of rainfall. The consecutive length of rainfall days from the model showed good agreement with the observed value. A chi-square test of independence was applied to assess the significance of the consecutiveness, and it was found that days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall tend to be consecutive over the entire area. Moreover, days with at least 35.1 mm of rainfall were found to be consecutive over the joint area where the mountainous region meets the plain area. However, the consecutiveness of days with less than 10.1 mm of rainfall was not obvious. The rainfall amount on days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall was also calculated and it showed lower values over the mountainous region than over the plain. Hence, this study established the characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over the plain, mountainous region, and joint area.     

南京北郊气溶胶粒子的光学散射特征

利用三波段积分浊度仪对南京北郊2009-2010年四季气溶胶散射系数进行观测和分析。结果表明：气溶胶散射系数具有明显的季节变化特征,春季最低,秋季最高,冬夏季差别不大;气溶胶散射系数变化范围为51．6～2748．3Mm-1,平均值为478．6Mm-1。气溶胶散射系数的日变化特征为双峰型。空气相对湿度与气溶胶散射系数呈正相关关系：地面风向与气溶胶散射系数关系密切,偏东风时气溶胶散射系数最大,偏南风和偏西风时气溶胶散射系数较小。降水对气溶胶有明显的清除作用。能见度大于5km时,能见度与散射系数呈负相关关系。四季大气中SO2和NO2与气溶胶散射系数存在一定相关性,其中秋季SO,与气溶胶散射系数的相关系数最大（0．68）,春季NO2与散射系数的相关系数最大（0．62）,均通过0．05信度的显著性检验。     

剑河县近45a降水变化特征

利用剑河县1960年12月～2005年逐月降水资料,统计分析该县年、季降水距平百分率的年际和年代际变化特征以及旱涝的演变趋势。结果得出：剑河县年降水呈“少→多→少→多→少”的规律变化;冬季呈准20a周期变化;春季呈“正常→多→持续偏少→多”的变化趋势;夏季呈“正常→少→多→少”的变化趋势;秋季呈多→持续偏少的趋势变化,与贵州和黔东南地区变化趋势相反。年、季降水距平百分率与旱涝变化趋势相一致。     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of intraseasonal oscillations of precipitation over the United States

Summary  This study shows that precipitation over the United States has two time scales of intraseasonal variation at about 37 days and 24 days. The results are derived from the application of a combination of statistical methods including principal component analysis (PCA), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to over 10 years of gridded daily precipitation records. Both oscillations have largest amplitude during the cold season. The 37-day oscillation has larger interannual variability. Intraseasonal oscillations are most significant in the Pacific Northwest. The 37-day oscillation has opposite phases between the western and eastern United States, while the 24-day oscillation has the same phases. These intraseasonal time scale precipitation variations may be associated with previously revealed mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies that oscillate at similar time scales. Received February 7, 2000 Revised October 20, 2000