Double-sided subduction with contrasting polarities beneath the Pamir-Hindu Kush: Evidence from focal mechanism solutions and stress field inversion

The Pamir-Hindu Kush region at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibet orogen is one of the most active regions on the globe with strong seismicity and deformation and provides a window to evaluate continental collision linked to two intra-continental subduction zones with different polarities. The seismicity and seismic tomography data show a steep northward subducting slab beneath the Hindu Kush and southward subducting slab under the Pamir. Here, we collect seismic catalogue with 3988 earthquake events to compute seismicity images and waveform data from 926 earthquake events to invert focal mechanism solutions and stress field with a view to characterize the subducting slabs under the Pamir-Hindu Kush region. Our results define two distinct seismic zones: a steep one beneath the Hindu Kush and a broad one beneath the Pamir. Deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes are mainly distributed in the Hindu Kush region which is controlled by thrust faulting, whereas the Pamir is dominated by strike-slip stress regime with shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes. The area where the maximum principal stress axis is vertical in the southern Pamir corresponds to the location of a high-conductivity low-velocity region that contributes to the seismogenic processes in this region. We interpret the two distinct seismic zones to represent a double-sided subduction system where the Hindu Kush zone represents the northward subduction of the Indian plate, and the Pamir zone shows southward subduction of the Eurasian plate. A transition fault is inferred in the region between the Hindu Kush and the Pamir which regulates the opposing directions of motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates.     

蛇纹石脱水与大洋俯冲带中源地震(70~300km)的关系

蛇纹石脱水致裂作用是诱发大洋俯冲带中源地震(70~300km)的一种重要成因机制,它与中等深度双地震带的形成有很密切的关系。双地震带在冷俯冲带中是一种常见现象,它由上下相距20~40km的两个平行地震层组成。上地震层位于俯冲洋壳中,可能是洋壳蓝片岩脱水形成榴辉岩的系列脱水反应诱发了地震;下地震层位于大洋俯冲地幔中,可能是部分交代的地幔橄榄岩脱水控制着中源地震的分布。蛇纹岩在高温高压条件下的变形实验证实蛇纹石在脱水过程中引起岩石弱化和脆性破裂,这已经得到了对蛇纹石脱水过程中岩石物理性质和变形后样品的显微构造等理论研究上的支持。在蛇纹石脱水过程中,产生的流体与固体残留物分离,形成了大量的I型(张性)微裂隙,最终导致岩石破裂和形成断层。根据叶蛇纹石脱水反应相图,理论上在大洋俯冲带中蛇纹石脱水位置会出现双层结构,但只有平行于俯冲板块顶层等温线的一支才可能脱水诱发地震,并对应于双地震带的下地震层。下地震层所处的位置具有低的vp/vs值,暗示岩石圈大洋地幔顶层发生了部分交代。但它的交代机制尚不清楚,可能是海水通过洋底转换断层和/或沿着在外海沟隆起中形成的断层渗入大洋地幔顶层,并发生了洋壳和大洋地幔交代。双地震带在120~200km深度合一以后,冷俯冲带中所发生的中源地震可能与蛇纹石脱水有关,在热俯冲带中更可能与“湿”榴辉岩脱水有关。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.     

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

Seismicity distribution in the vicinity of the Chile Triple Junction,Aysén Region,southern Chile

The Aysén Region, southern Chile, is the area located at the southern end of the Nazca-South America subduction zone, to the east of the Chile Triple Junction. This region has historically presented low levels of seismicity mostly related to volcanism. Nonetheless, a seismic sequence occurred in 2007, related to the reactivation of the strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System (LOFS), confirmed that this region is not exempt from major seismic activity M ∼ 7. Here we present results from background local seismicity of two years (2004–2005) preceding the sequence of 2007. Event magnitudes range between 0.5 and 3.4 M_L and hypocenters occur at shallow depths, mostly within the upper 10 km of crust, in the overriding South American plate. No events were detected in the area locus of the 2007 sequence, and the Wadati–Benioff (WB) plane is not observable given the lack of subduction inter-plate seismicity in the area. A third of the seismicity is related to Hudson volcano activity, and sparse crustal events can be spatially associated with the trace of the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault, showing the largest detected magnitudes, in particular at the place where the two main branches of the LOFS meet. Other minor sources of seismicity correspond to glacial calving in the terminal zones of glaciers and mining explosions.     

大别-苏鲁区超高压(UHP)变质岩的多阶段构造折返过程

追溯和重塑超高压变质岩由100多千米地幔深度折返至上地壳及地表的过程,对理解会聚板块边缘及大陆碰撞带的运动学和动力学是极为重要的.主要依据构造学、岩石学、地球化学和可利用的地质年代学资料,结合区域多期变形分析,大别-苏鲁区超高压变质岩的折返过程至少可分解出4个大的阶段.块状榴辉岩记录了三叠纪(约250~230 Ma)大陆壳岩石的深俯冲/碰撞作用.超高压变质岩早期迅速折返发生于超高压峰期变质作用(P＞3.1~4.0 GPa,T≈800±50 ℃)之后,处于地幔深度和柯石英稳定域,相当于区域D₂变形期阶段.分别与区域变形期D₃、D₄和D₅对应的折返过程,以及后成合晶、冠状体等卸载不平衡结构发育和减压部分熔融作用2个中间性构造热事件,均发生在地壳层次. 网络状剪切带在折返过程的不同阶段和不同层次均有发育,标志着在超高压变质带内的变质和变形分解作用曾重复进行.着重指出,超高压变质岩的折返,主要是由大陆壳的深俯冲/碰撞和伸展作用控制的构造过程,且受到俯冲带内、带外诸多因素的约束,其中水流体就起关键作用.      

塔里木盆地及周缘南华系和震旦系划分对比研究

塔里木盆地及周缘南华系、震旦系广泛发育，是揭示前寒武纪重大地质事件的重要地区之一，然而其研究程度低于华南、华北地区。早期认为塔里木盆地及周缘南华系、震旦系可划分为哈尔克山、柯坪、库鲁克塔格、铁克里克及塔克拉玛干等五个分区，由于各分区研究程度及资料之间的差异较大，且近期盆地内部钻井揭示越来越多，地层划分对比问题逐渐突出，传统分区方案面临诸多挑战。综合地质、地震等多学科资料认为，塔里木南华纪原型盆地基底、充填过程、分布统一具有南北分异的特征，区域地层格架剖面显示南华纪-震旦纪原型盆地分布于中央古隆起南北两侧，表现出北强南弱的不同地震反射特征。因此，本文以原型盆地中南、北分异的特征为原则进行地层分区，大致以现今中央隆起带南缘为界，分为北部地层分区和南部地层分区。北部可划分为东北部库鲁克塔格地层小区和西部阿克苏地层小区，其中阿克苏地层小区包括原方案中柯坪、塔克拉玛干北部、哈尔克山分区；南部初步划分出铁克里克地层小区，具体有待完善。震旦纪末期，受柯坪运动"大继承、小改造"的演化模式影响，北部地层分区广泛发育下寒武统烃源岩。因此，塔里木盆地及周缘新元古界分区新方案既符合南北不同的超大陆动力学背景，又控制下寒武统烃源岩分布，理论意义与勘探意义明显。     

Pseudotachylytes from Corsica: fossil earthquakes from a subduction complex

Subduction zones are the most seismically active tectonic environment on Earth. Here we report fault‐rock evidence of palaeoearthquakes from a subduction complex. Pseudotachylyte veins formed by shear heating on faults at seismic strain rates contain dendrites, spherulites and acicular minerals characteristic of blueschist facies conditions. The veins have been found in both mantle peridotite and gabbro. Our discovery from Corsica opens a new avenue of research towards understanding mechanisms related to subduction zone earthquakes and the conditions at which these are released.     

大陆俯冲带壳幔相互作用

由板块俯冲引发的深部物质循环过程是地球内部的一级运行机制,主宰了地球从内到外的演化进程,是地球科学研究的重要前沿.俯冲带化学地球动力学研究不仅需要确定俯冲带地壳物质再循环的机制和形式,而且需要确定俯冲带动力来源和热体制及其随时间的变化.为了识别不同类型壳源熔/流体对地幔楔的交代作用、寻求板片-地幔界面反应的岩石学和地球化学证据、理解汇聚板块边缘地壳俯冲和拆沉对地幔不均一性的贡献,我们必须将俯冲带变质作用、交代作用和岩浆作用作为一个地球科学系统来考虑.板块俯冲带变质过程中发生一系列物理化学变化,这些变化不但是导致板块进一步俯冲的主要驱动力,同时也控制着释放的熔/流体组成和俯冲到地球深部的物质组成,对俯冲带化学地球动力学过程产生重要影响.地幔楔作为俯冲系统中连接俯冲盘和仰冲盘的关键构造单元,在地球层圈之间物质循环和能量交换等方面起着重要作用.造山带地幔楔橄榄岩直接记录了俯冲带多种性质的熔/流体交代作用,以及复杂的壳幔物质循环过程.俯冲带岩浆岩是大洋/大陆板块俯冲物质再循环的表现形式,这些岩石样品记录了俯冲带从深部地幔到浅部地壳的过程,也为认识地球深部物质循环提供了理想的天然样品.尽管国际上在俯冲带岩石学和地球化学领域针对地球深部过程的研究方面取得了多项重要进展,但由于研究工作缺乏密切的协同配合,包括俯冲带熔/流体的物理化学性质、俯冲带壳幔相互作用的机制和过程、俯冲带幔源岩浆活动的物质来源和启动机制以及深部地幔过程对地表环境的影响等许多关键科学问题尚未得到根本解决.将来的研究需要聚焦俯冲带物质循环这一核心科学问题,进一步查明俯冲带变质作用、交代作用、岩浆作用等过程的各自特征和相互联系,包括挥发性组分在地球深部的迁移过程及其资源和环境效应,着力考察研究相对薄弱的古俯冲带,阐明板块俯冲与地球深部物质循环之间的耦合机制.      

Local seismic array observations at north Evoikos, central Greece, delineate crustal deformation between the North Aegean Trough and Corinthiakos Rift

In order to better constrain and define the microseismic activity at the north Evoikos Gulf and its surrounding area we deployed an onshore/offshore seismic array consisting of 31 three-component seismic digital stations. The array was active from 30 June to 24 October 2003, and covered an area of 2500 km². We located more than 2000 seismic events ranging from 0.7 to 4.5 M_L by using six stations as a minimum in order to define the foci parameters. Recorded seismicity delineated three major zones of deformation: from south to north, the Eretria–Parnis–eastern Corinthiakos zone, the Psachna–Viotia zone, and the Northern Sporades–North Evia–Bralos zone. Alignments of the recorded seismicity follow the tectonic trends and their orientation in the above zones. The whole area accommodates the stress field between the North Aegean Trough and the Corinthiakos Gulf. Rate of deformation intensifies from north to south, as revealed also by historical and instrumental seismicity. The successive change of orientation between the two stress fields fragments the crust in relatively small units and the fault systems developed do not permit the generation of major earthquakes in the north Evoikos area and its immediate vicinity. This is also supported by the instrumental seismicity of the last century. Larger events reported in historical times are probably overestimated.Most seismic activity is crustal. Subcrustal events were recorded mainly below the Lichades area and are interpreted as the consequence of the subduction of the Ionian oceanic lithosphere below the Hellenides. The Lichades volcano is the most northern end of the Hellenic volcanic arc.At present the highest seismic activity is associated with the Psachna region of north Evia that has been continuously active since 2001. Considering, however, the development of the seismic activity during the last decade, there has been a sequence of large events, i.e., Parnis in 1999, Skyros in 2001 and Psachna in 2001–2003. This demonstrates the fact that the tectonic deformation in all this area is intense and important for the accommodation of the stress field of the North Aegean Trough to that of the Corinthiakos Rift.     

Landslide studies along the national highway (NH 39) in Manipur

The present study investigates the factors associated with the occurrence of landslides along with the National Highway (NH 39) connecting Assam-Manipur (India) to Myanmar. Kinematics and slope stability analyses were used to gain an understanding of the causes of slope failure despite the terrain comprising material with a high safety factor. The study area falls within a high seismic zone along the regional Churachandpur-Mao Thrust (CMT) situated west of the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone. Based on these studies of seismicity, slip rates, creeping, among others, it was inferred that CMT is a creeping regional fault running parallel to the subduction zone boundary creeping segment of CMT and that the CMT requires further monitoring to assess the landslide hazard in the region.     

俯冲带深海-岩石圈流体交换及其效应

俯冲带是地球上构造活动最复杂、最强烈的区域,也是地球物质循环系统的重要组成部分,对俯冲带的深入研究有助于加深我们对地球系统科学的认识。通过系统地梳理分析国内外相关文献,大洋岩石圈通过在汇聚板块边界的俯冲将大量水带入到地幔中,并对俯冲带地震的发生、地幔的熔融、岩浆的产生、陆壳的形成乃至矿产资源富集都起到了重要的控制作用。弧前隆起区的岩石圈地幔在顺断层渗透的深海水作用下发生强烈水化作用并形成水化地幔,是水富集在岩石圈的主要方式之一。随着俯冲板片深度的增加,在一定的温压条件下,水化地幔(蛇纹岩)发生脱水相变,引发俯冲带中源地震。脱出的水则由于运移的差异,既可以产生板内的水压致裂,也会影响俯冲界面的耦合,进而导致慢滑移地震区的形成。由此可见,俯冲带地区深海-岩石圈流体交换及其在深部的效应是一个包含化学反应-温度-流体流动-应力变形/破坏的多物理场耦合的复杂动力学系统。然而,目前的相关研究工作主要侧重于对其中某个因素、现象或者某个特定条件下具体过程的探索性观测分析研究。因此,我们需要从地球系统科学的角度出发,将流体运移、化学反应与传统的固体地球研究相结合,着眼于多学科交叉的多场耦合动力学综合研究,对俯冲带地区深海-岩石圈流体交换及其效应进行多时空尺度定量化表征和分析。     

西藏永珠蛇绿岩带地质特征

详细地描述了永珠蛇绿岩带的地质特征、岩石化学特征、稀土元素特征和微量元素特征,并把它与典型的蛇绿岩带进行对比,发现它除了具有典型的蛇绿岩带特征外,还具有其特殊性。结合区域沉积环境确定该蛇绿岩带的构造环境为扩张历史暂短、洋陆转换不彻底、发育于消减带上的弧间裂谷盆地。     

Complex slab structure and arc magmatism beneath the Japanese Islands

A dense nationwide seismic network recently constructed in Japan has resulted in the production of a large amount of high-quality data that have enabled the high-resolution imaging of deep seismic structures in the Japanese subduction zone. Seismic tomography, precise locations of earthquakes, and focal mechanism research have allowed the identification of the complex structure of subducting slabs beneath Japan, revealing that the subducting Philippine Sea slab underneath southwestern Japan has an undulatory configuration down to a depth of 60–200 km, and is continuous from Kanto to Kyushu without disruption or splitting, even within areas north of the Izu Peninsula. Analysis of the geometry of the Pacific and Philippine Sea slabs identified a broad contact zone beneath the Kanto Plain that causes anomalously deep interplate and intraslab earthquake activity. Seismic tomographic inversions using both teleseismic and local events provide a clear image of the deep aseismic portion of the Philippine Sea slab beneath the Japan Sea north of Chugoku and Kyushu, and beneath the East China Sea west of Kyushu down to a depth of ∼450 km. Seismic tomography also allowed the identification of an inclined sheet-like seismic low-velocity zone in the mantle wedge beneath Tohoku. A recent seismic tomography work further revealed clear images of similar inclined low-velocity zones in the mantle wedge for almost all other areas of Japan. The presence of the inclined low-velocity zones in the mantle wedge across the entirety of Japan suggests that it is a common feature to all subduction zones. These low-velocity zones may correspond to the upwelling flow portion of subduction-induced convection systems. These upwelling flows reach the Moho directly beneath active volcanic areas, suggesting a link between volcanism and upwelling.     

Characteristics of Intraslab Stress Field and Tectonic Implication in the Nankai Trough, Japan

1. IntroductionThe Nankai Trough region (Fig. 1.1) of southwest Japan is one of the most tectonically complex subduction zones in the world. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate (PH) beneath the Eurasian plate (EU) has caused a series of large and great interplate earthquakes. It is generally accepted that great earthquakes have occurred at intervals of 100-150 years along the Nankai subduction zone since the 684 Hakuho earthquake (Fig. 1.2). However, a large earthquake (M>7.5) has…     

南沙海域南部第三纪三角洲演化与油气聚集

利用钻井、测井及地震资料,重建了南沙海域南部第三纪三角洲沉积的时空演化,并讨论了主控因素。研究表明,自晚渐新世—上新世,研究区三角洲在平行岸线方向(NE—SW)自西向东从西巴兰断层西侧向东侧迁移;在垂直岸线方向(NW—SE)则整体表现出从陆向海进积推进。这一演化过程主要受控于古南海自西向东"剪刀式"俯冲引起的造山带的迁移和海平面的升降。并且发现研究区烃源岩、储层和圈闭具有分期、分带特征。通过综合分析,在研究区划分出3个与三角洲有关的油气聚集区,即曾母盆地巴林坚三角洲油气聚集区、文莱—沙巴盆地巴兰三角洲油气聚集区、梅丽干—冠军三角洲油气聚集区。     

Newly discovered mud volcanoes in the Coastal Belt of Makran,Pakistan—tectonic implications

The Makran accretionary wedge has a much larger number of mud volcanoes then those reported earlier. Using high-resolution satellite images, over 70 active mud volcanoes were identified. These mud volcanoes occur within a well-defined zone; we call it the Makran zone of active mud volcanoes (MZAMV), which is parallel to the regional trend of the accretionary wedge. Mud volcanoes within the zone occur as clusters, which form linear belts parallel to the regional thrusts associated with anticlines. The MZAMV zone also includes the offshore mud volcanoes occurring in the shallow shelf area, including the recurrently emerging mud islands. Several occurrences of thick deposits of old mud volcanoes (Pleistocene or even older) are also present within this zone, which also display recognizable features that are characteristic of the fossil mud volcanoes. We propose that the MZAMV developed and evolved in response to the continued compression within the Makran accretionary wedge, which in turn, is a response of the subduction process. Mud diapirism has been an ongoing phenomena since Pleistocene or even earlier. The events of enhanced mud extrusion in mud volcanoes and/or emergence of island(s) have relevance with seismic phenomena and, therefore, may be closely monitored.     

2019年四川长宁MS6.0地震的地质构造成因——区域性构造节理贯通、破裂结果

根据野外地质调查结果并结合区域地质资料, 对2019年长宁MS6.0地震震区的地质背景和新构造运动特征进行分析后, 讨论了此次地震的发震构造并给出该地区孕震模型。基于区域地质与地震资料, 结合地表调查结果发现, 该区的新构造运动具有间歇性整体弱隆升、断裂晚第四纪活动不明显以及地震活动相对微弱等特征。此次强震的仪器震中位于长宁双河大背斜的西段, 该背斜经历了古老的NE向挤压应力场和顺时针旋转应力场的双重叠加构造作用。在大背斜的核部和翼部普遍发育了两组NW向节理和一组NE向节理, 并显示出区域性分布特征, 构成了具一定规模的构造破碎带(软弱带)。地震记录显示, 此次强震的地震序列呈现出明显的NW向线性条带, 震源机制解主要指示了NEE—NE向水平挤压应力作用的结果。结合地表构造特征可进一步推断, 长宁地震的震源破裂型式是以沿NW向破裂面发生以逆冲为主兼具左旋走滑分量的破裂过程为特征。综合分析认为, 2019年长宁MS6.0地震可能是双河背斜中的赋存超压环境叠加NE向古构造应力场和旋转应力场作用, 导致区域性NW向纵向节理发生构造强化、贯通, 并进一步破裂的结果。     

Crust-mantle relationships in the French Variscan chain: the example of the Southern Monts du Lyonnais unit (eastern French Massif Central)

Garnet lherzolite from the Lyonnais area (eastern French Massif Central) occurs as several lenses elongated within the regional foliation of garnet-biotite-sillimanite gneisses. Within the peridotites a mylonitic foliation can be observed which clearly is oblique to the regional foliation of the surrounding gneisses. Petrological and thermobarometric studies emphasize a tectonometamorphic re-equilibration for both crustal and mantle rocks characterized by a prograde metamorphic stage followed by retrograde evolution. During the burial stage, interpreted as lithospheric subduction, the peridotites underwent their mylonitic deformation, under high-pressure conditions (23–30 kbar). In contrast, the paragneisses have suffered their deformation during the retromorphic evolution under mesozonal conditions (6–8 kbar, 700°C). Our thermobarometric investigations allow us to interpret the granulitic/ultramafic association from the Monts du Lyonnais area as a lithospheric section buried into a Palaeozoic subduction zone, laminated during continental collision and uplifted by erosion processes.     

青藏高原巴塘断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测研究

全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。