2000–2012年中国黄淮海农业区多熟种植时空变化（英文）

Multiple cropping index(MCI) is the ratio of total sown area and cropland area in a region,which represents the regional time intensity of planting crops.Multiple cropping systems have effectively improved the utilization efficiency and production of cropland by increasing cropping frequency in one year.Meanwhile,it has also significantly altered biogeochemical cycles.Therefore,exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of multiple cropping intensity is of great significance for ensuring food and ecological security.In this study,MCI of Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region with intensive cropping practices was extracted based on a cropping intensity mapping algorithm using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index(EVI) time series at 500-m spatial resolution and 8-day time intervals.Then the physical characteristics and landscape pattern of MCI trends were analyzed from 2000–2012.Results showed that MCI in Huang-Huai-Hai agricultural region has increased from 152% to 156% in the 12 years.Topography is a primary factor in determining the spatial pattern dynamics of MCI,which is more stable in hilly area than in plain area.An increase from 158% to 164% of MCI occurred in plain area while there was almost no change in hilly area with single cropping.The most active region of MCI change was the intersection zone between the hilly area and plain area.In spatial patterns,landscape of multiple cropping systems tended to be homogenized reflected by a reduction in the degree of fragmentation and an increase in the degree of concentration of cropland with the same cropping system.     

近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析

综合运用时序变化趋势、空间集聚分析等方法,从种植结构类型和种植比例变化趋势分析了1980年以来中国县域种植结构的时空特征。结果表明：① 近30年来中国前10位的种植结构类型有16种,2002年后多元种植结构逐步替代单一型种植结构。粮食作物占优的单一种植结构类型呈逐年递减趋势,其中1980年全国82.7%的县级农业种植结构是水稻、小麦、玉米及其组合种植类型,2002年后的果蔬类型增加改变了种植结构格局。② 全国种植县中有47%的水稻、61%的小麦和29.6%的玉米的种植比例显著减少,其他作物呈现增加趋势。粮食作物由以水稻为主的格局调整为水稻、小麦和玉米共存格局,其中玉米种植面积比例在空间上变化最为显著,在中国形成北东—西南向的“玉米减少带”。种植结构调整热点的城市地区,城市化对种植结构变化影响显著,水果和蔬菜类种植比例在城市化地区快速增加。③ 种植结构变化趋势在1300个县形成空间集聚效应,水稻的高高聚集占全国县数的2.86%、小麦占5.64%、玉米占6.11%、大豆为4.53%、麻类为1.62%、棉花占7.77%、蔬菜占8.24%、薯类占12%、水果占10%、糖料占1.41%、油料占9.35%,主要分布于中国东北、新疆和沿海的城市化地区。     

2000–2012年中国北方海岸线时空变化（英文）

This study examined the spatial distribution of the continent coastline in northern China using remote sensing and GIS techniques,and calculated the fractal dimension of the coastline by box-counting method,with a time span from 2000 to 2012.Moreover,we analyzed the characteristics of spatial-temporal changes in the coastline's length and fractal dimension,the relationship between the length change and fractal dimension change,and the driving forces of coastline changes in northern China.During the research period,the coastline of the study area increased by 637.95 km,at a rate of 53.16 km per year.On the regional level,the most significant change in coastline length was observed in Tianjin and Hebei.Temporally,the northern China coastline grew faster after 2008.The most dramatic growth was found between 2010 and 2011,with an increasing rate of 2.49% per year.The fractal dimension of the coastline in northern China was increasing during the research period,and the most dramatic increase occurred in Bohai Rim.There is a strong-positive linear relationship between the historical coastline length and fractal dimension(the correlation coefficient was 0.9962).Through statistical analysis of a large number of local coastline changes,it can be found that the increase(or decrease) of local coastline length will,in most cases,lead to the increase(or decrease) of the whole coastline fractal dimension.Civil-coastal engineering construction was the most important factor driving the coastline change in northern China.Port construction,fisheries facilities and salt factories were the top three construction activities.Compared to human activities,the influence of natural processes such as estuarine deposit and erosion were relatively small.     

哈萨克斯坦1982–2015年植被时空变化（英文）

归一化植被指数(NDVI)作为表征植被生长状况的关键性指标,能够有效的提供植被生长状况的信息。本研究基于1982–2015年哈萨克斯坦时间序列的GIMMS/NDVI数据,分析植被)生长的空间格局及变化趋势,研究结果表明:哈萨克斯坦自北向南分布着农田、草地、灌丛这三类主要的植被类型,呈明晰的地带性分布特征;植被指数由北到南逐渐降低,农田、草地和灌丛三类主要植被类型的NDVI均值水平依次为农田草地灌丛;1982–2015年间,NDVI呈现出先增长(1982–1992年)、再降低(1993–2007年)、然后又增长(2008–2015年)的变化趋势。NDVI显著下降的区域占土地总面积的24.0%,主要分布在西北部的农田与草地交错地带以及南部边缘的农田,草地退化面积占草地总面积的23.5%、农田退化面积占农田总面积的48.4%、灌丛退化面积占灌丛总面积的13.7%,植被改善的区域分布在中东部的农田以及农田与草地的交错带,显著提升的面积占土地总面积的11.8%。     

1962–2011年长江流域极端气温变化（英文）

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1962 to 2011,the methods of linear regression,principal component analysis and correlation analysis are employed to investigate the temporal variability and spatial distribution of temperature extremes.Sixteen indices of extreme temperature are selected.The results are as follows:(1) The occurrence of cold days,cold nights,ice days,frost days and cold spell duration indicator has significantly decreased by –0.84,–2.78,–0.48,–3.29 and –0.67 days per decade,respectively.While the occurrence of warm days,warm nights,summer days,tropical nights,warm spell duration indicator and growing season length shows statistically significant increasing trends at rates of 2.24,2.86,2.93,1.80,0.83 and 2.30 days per decade,respectively.The tendency rate of the coldest day,coldest night,warmest day,warmest night and diurnal temperature range is 0.33,0.47,0.16,0.19 and –0.07℃ per decade,respectively.(2) The magnitudes of changes in cold indices(cold nights,coldest day and coldest night) are obviously greater than those of warm indices(warm nights,warmest day and warmest night).The change ranges of night indices(warm nights and cold nights) are larger than those of day indices(warm days and cold days),which indicates that the change of day and night temperature is asymmetrical.(3) Spatially,the regionally averaged values of cold indices in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are larger than those in the middle and lower reaches.However,the regionally averaged values of most warm indices(except warm spell duration indicator) and growing season length in the middle and lower reaches are larger than those in the upper reaches.(4) The extreme temperature indices are well correlated with each other except diurnal temperature range.     

1960–2016年中国北方寒潮事件时空变化分析（英文）

Among the most devastating extreme weather events, cold surge(CS) events frequently impact northern China. It has been reported that extreme weather events will increase in the global warming context. However, the direct evidence of this hypothesis is limited. Here, we investigated the changes in frequency, number, duration, and temperature of CS events in northern China using the daily minimum temperature dataset of 331 stations from 1960 to 2016. The results indicate that the annual CS events in terms of frequency and number decreased, and the duration shortened as the starting date was later and the ending date earlier. Meanwhile, the annual CS temperature increased. In addition, spatial trends in the CS events in terms of frequency, number, and duration decreased while the CS temperature increased in most regions of northern China. We interpreted these variations as a response to global warming. However, the extreme CS events in terms of frequency, number and the earliest starting date and the latest ending date showed little change though the extreme CS temperature increased, implying climate warming had not limited extreme CS events. The adverse effect of CS events on agriculture and human health remain concerning.     

基于InVEST模型的1980–2100年长江中下游地区动植物生境质量时空变化研究（英文）

20世纪80年代以来,人类活动加速了长江流域的土地利用变化,这对当地动植物的生境质量造成了影响,在中国生态文明建设和长江经济带发展战略不断推进的大背景下,对长江中下游地区的生境质量变化开展长时间多时段的研究具有重要的现实意义。本研究以长江中下游地区7省的土地利用覆盖数据(1980–2018年)与未来土地利用模型模拟出未来四种情景(A1B,A2,B1,B2)下的土地利用覆盖数据(2050年,2100年)为基础,借助环境服务与权衡综合评估(In VEST)模型评估了长江中下游地区的生境质量时空变化。结果表明:(1)2000–2015年,研究区的坡度(R=0.502,P 0.01)和海拔(R=0.003,P 0.05)、人口密度(R=0.299,P 0.01)、NDVI(R=0.366,P 0.01)与生境质量显著相关;(2)从1980年到2018年,研究区总面积61.93%的土地生境质量下降,38.07%的土地生境质量上升;在A2情景(人口密度大,环境技术投入少,传统能源成本高)和B2情景(中等人口密度,中等绿色技术,区域政府间缺乏合作)下,研究区的生境质量将下降;(3)长江下游的生境质量恶化程度高于中游,研究区北部的生境质量恶化程度低于南部。整体上,积极的环境保护政策是有效的,但并未根本上遏制生境质量的整体退化趋势。区域发展应加大环境保护力度,控制人口增长,鼓励绿色技术创新,在处理生态问题时,要注重省际合作。本研究可为区域野生动植物保护规划和国际上的类似流域研究提供科学参考。     

1951–2010年中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化（英文）

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluated the changes in the heat and moisture conditions of crop growth. An average value of ten years was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in the agricultural hydrothermal conditions within a 1 km2 grid. Next, the inter-annual changing trend was simulated by regression analysis of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that the contour lines for temperature and accumulated temperatures(the daily mean temperature ≥0°C) increased significantly in most parts of China, and that the temperature contour lines had all moved northwards over the past 60 years. At the same time, the annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, though more than half of the meteorological stations did not pass the significance test. However, the mean temperatures in the hottest month and the coldest month exhibited a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010. In addition, the 0°C contour line gradually moved from the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Basin to the Yellow River Basin. All these changes would have a significant impact on the distribution of crops and farming systems. Although the mechanisms influencing the interactive temperature and precipitation changes on crops were complex and hard to distinguish, the fact remained that these changes would directly cause corresponding changes in crop characteristics.     

1992–2015全球耕地时空变化（英文）

人口和人均食物需求的增加对全球耕地产生了显著的影响。利用欧空局提供的精度为300m的最新土地覆被产品,文章分析了1992-2015年全球耕地的时空变化趋势和耕地转化特征。结果显示:1)在1992-2004年间全球耕地面积增长迅速,而在2004-2012年间耕地增长缓慢,2012年后耕地有缓慢减少的趋势。2)在洲尺度上,非洲耕地有一直增长的态势,而其他洲耕地都经历了耕地转型,有先增长后下降的趋势;在收入较高的国家,耕地多有下降的趋势。3)全球耕地增长的热点区域主要分布在亚马逊林地、欧亚大草原和撒哈拉沙漠边缘。全球耕地减少的中心从欧洲转移到亚洲。由于迅速的城市化,亚洲耕地扩张侵占了大量农田。     

天津市1980–2019年土地利用及土地生态安全时空演变分析（英文）

土地生态安全问题直接威胁着区域的可持续发展,探索其时空特征有助于分析区域间土地生态格局。采用1980、2000、2010以及2019年四期天津市Landsat TM遥感影像为数据源,在Arc GIS和Geo Da等软件的支撑下,利用土地利用动态度的方法,测算研究区土地利用变化,再运用土地生态安全指数和空间自相关分析法,研究天津市各区土地生态安全的空间相关性及内部异质特征。结果表明:(1)近40年天津市土地利用变化剧烈,建设用地不断扩张,耕地、未利用地面积持续缩减;(2)土地生态安全综合水平处于高安全区,蓟州区生态安全等级最高,中心城区、滨海新区生态安全水平较低;(3)各区土地生态安全空间异质性不明显,空间集聚性较强。     

2000-2011年可可西里地区主要湖泊冰情时空变化（英文）

Lake ice phenology,i.e.the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover,is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate.Based on the boundary data of lakes,some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data,the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000–2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology.And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) The time of freeze-up start(FUS) and freeze-up end(FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October–early November,mid-November – early December,respectively.The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month.The time of break-up start(BUS) and break-up end(BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed,and appeared in the early February – early June,early May – early June,respectively.The average ice duration(ID) and the complete ice duration(CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days,respectively.(2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years.Specifically,the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend.In contrast,the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance.This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake.The average rates of ID and CID were –2.21 d/a and –1.91 d/a,respectively.(3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors.The temperature,lake area,salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice.However,the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well.(4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process.The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.     

1990–2015年横断山区国土空间时空变化研究（英文）

Hengduan Mountains offer land space for a variety of ecological services. However, the sustainable development and management of land space has been challenged by increased human activities in recent years. This paper performs the spatial pattern analysis of the quantitative and structural changes of various landscapes at different altitudes, and uses the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 to reveal how various land patterns have changed. The results show that, within the production-living-ecological space schema, the ecological space dominates Hengduan Mountains, while the production and living space was mainly distributed in south region. During 1990–2015, the production-living-ecological spatial changes had been gradually accelerated and the regional differences had become more prominent. The agricultural production space had continuously decreased by 1132.31 km~2, and the industrial and mining production space had rapidly increased by 281.4 km~2 during 1990–2015. The living space had steadily increased, and the ecological space had increased with fluctuations. The land space pattern in Hengduan Mountains was greatly restricted by the terrain, such as altitude and slope. The implementations of China Western Development Strategy and the Returning Farmland to Forest Program had favorably promoted the changes of land spatial pattern in Hengduan Mountains.     

2000–2015年中国城市化进程中耕地质量及其时空变化研究（英文）

加速的城市化进程导致越来越多的耕地被占用,在耕地资源供给不足情况下高质量的农田受到巨大威胁,进而可能对中国粮食安全构成威胁。尽管已对中国耕地质量的空间格局进行了评估,但其随时间变化的情况未见报导。本研究利用MODIS的净初级生产力产品(MOD17)数据,基于发展的累积概率分布法确定耕地质量标准,以2000–2005年、2005–2010年和2010–2015年三期基于Landsat遥感的土地利用变化(LUCC)数据,得到低、中、高质量农田的空间分布,定量分析城市化占用耕地的数量和质量。结果表明,城市化占用耕地面积占耕地减少总面积的比例由2000–2005年的47.29%增加到2010–2015年的77.46%。2000年,中国耕地质量以中低产田为主,分别占全国耕地面积的40.81%和48.74%,高产田仅占10.44%。随着建设用地规模的扩大,城市化占用高产田面积在全国耕地面积中的比例从2000–2005年的9.71%上升到2010–2015年的15.63%,高产田受到严重威胁。从空间上看,该现象已由华东、华南向中西部地区转移,尤其是西北地区,其2010–2015年建设占用耕地面积中,高产田达到52.97%。本研究不仅提供了一种评价耕地质量的方法,同时揭示了城市化进程占用高质量耕地的趋势。未来占用高质量农田的趋势可能会持续,必须构建以振兴乡村为主的新型发展模式,可能是缓解土地资源紧缺情况下城市化和粮食安全矛盾的可选途径,值得土地利用规划和政府决策给予重视。     

中国典型自然保护区生境状况时空变化（英文）

Until 2015,China had established 2740 nature reserves with a total area of 1.47million km~2,covering 14.8%of China’s terrestrial land surface.Based on remote sensing inversion,ecological model simulation and spatial analysis methods,we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of fractional vegetation coverage(FVC),net primary production(NPP),and human disturbance(HD)in habitats of typical national nature reserves(NNRs)during the first 15 years of the 21st century from 2000 to 2015.And then the three indicators were compared between different NNR types and varied climate zones.The results showed that(1)the average 5-year FVC of NNRs increased from 36.3%to 37.1%,and it improved in all types of NNRs to some extent.The annual average FVC increased by 0.11%,0.84%,0.21%,0.09%,0.11%and 0.08%in NNRs of forest ecosystem,plain meadow,inland wetland,desert ecosystem,wild animal and wild plant,respectively.(2)The NPP annually increased by 2.06 g·m~(-2),1.23 g·m~(-2),0.28 g·m~(-2) and 0.4 g·m~(-2) in NNRs of plain meadow,inland wetland,desert ecosystem and wild animal,respectively.However,it decreased by 3.45 g·m~(-2) and2.35 g·m~(-2) in NNRs of forest ecosystem and wild plant respectively.(3)In the past 15 years,besides the slight decreases in the NNRs located at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the south subtropical zone,HD enhanced in most of NNRs,especially HD in the warm temperate humid zone increased from 4.7% to 5.35%.     

1980–2015年山东省耕地利用集约度的时序变化及其驱动因素（英文）

基于1980-2015年的《全国农产品成本收益资料》与《山东统计年鉴》等基础资料,以耕地利用过程中的主要粮食作物和经济作物为例,探讨了山东省耕地利用集约度及其构成的时序变化特征,并进一步分析了其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1980–2015年,山东省主要农作物总集约度呈上升趋势,由919.73 Yuan hm~(–2)上升到3285.06 Yuan hm~(–2),其中经济作物多年平均集约度高于粮食作物;主要农作物的人工成本和物质成本均呈增加趋势,粮食作物的物质投入远高于人工投入,而经济作物的人工投入远高于物质投入。(2)山东省主要农作物劳动集约度呈下降趋势,由1980年的501.75 d hm~(-2)下降到2015年的161.93 d hm~(–2),粮食作物相对于经济作物劳动集约度水平低且下降速率大;而资本集约度水平不断上升,由1980年的518.33Yuanhm~(–2)上升到2015年的1159.95 Yuan hm~(–2),其中种子、农家肥、化肥、农药和排灌等增产性投入比重逐渐下降,而农业机械等省工性投入比重增长显著。(3)山东省耕地利用集约度与农业劳动力数量、人均耕地面积呈显著负相关;最主要的直接驱动因素是农作物单位成本纯收益,不过在时间响应上滞后1～3年;最主要的间接驱动因素是农业政策的改革。     

2004–2011年中国省域生态补偿差异分析（英文）

In this study, we developed a theoretical framework to analyze the provincial differences in eco-compensation and selected appropriate measurement methods to investigate these differences in the operation of the eco-compensation framework. Via the use of the coefficient of variation, Atkinson index, and Gini coefficient, we investigated the overall differences in Chinese provincial eco-compensation time series data from 2004 to 2014 and studied the driving mechanism underlying these differences. The results showed that:(1) The provincial eco-compensation standard has geographical features. For example, the provinces crossed by the "HU Huanyong Line", or located to its northwestern side, have obtained extensive eco-compensation.(2) There was a trend for differences in eco-compensation to increase over time, but with some fluctuations in 2006, 2009, and 2014 as shown by the coefficient of variation, in 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013, and 2014 as shown by the Gini coefficient, and in 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2012 as shown by the Atkinson index.(3) Time series curves indicated that while the signals from the three metrics(coefficient of variation, Atkinson index, and Gini coefficient) differ in a short-term analysis, they show the same tendency in the longer term. The results indicate that it is necessary to evaluate the differences in eco-compensation at the provincial level over a long period of time.(4) Via the calculation of the virtual Gini coefficient, we found that among the factors that influence provincial differences in eco-compensation, the economic value of eco-resources played the decisive role, explaining more than 73% of the difference. The cost of environmental pollution abatement was the second most important factor, accounting for more than 19% of the difference. The input to environmental pollution abatement had the least influence, accounting for less than 8% of the difference. The results agreed with those obtained from other studies, and could be used as a reference by policy makers.     

内蒙古草原草本植物萌芽期时空变化（英文）

Phenological modeling is not only important for the projection of future changes of certain phenophases but also crucial for systematically studying the spatiotemporal patterns of plant phenology. Based on ground phenological observations, we used two existing temperature-based models and 12 modified models with consideration of precipitation or soil moisture to simulate the bud-burst date(BBD) of four common herbaceous plants—Xanthium sibiricum, Plantago asiatica, Iris lactea and Taraxacum mongolicum—in temperate grasslands in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that(1) increase in temperature promoted the BBD of all species. However, effects of precipitation and soil moisture on BBD varied among species.(2) The modified models predicted the BBD of herbaceous plants with R~2 ranging from 0.17 to 0.41 and RMSE ranging from 9.03 to 11.97 days, better than classical thermal models.(3) The spatiotemporal pattern of BBD during 1980–2015 showed that species with later BBD, e.g. X. sibiricum(mean: day of year 135.30) exhibited an evidently larger spatial difference in BBD(standard deviation: 13.88 days) than the other species. Our findings suggest that influences of temperature and water conditions need to be considered simultaneously in predicting the phenological response of herbaceous plants to climate change.     

2000–2011年三江源区植被覆盖时空变化特征(英文)

The Three-River Headwaters Region(TRHR), which is the source area of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River, is of key importance to the ecological security of China. Because of climate changes and human activities, ecological degradation occurred in this region. Therefore, "The nature reserve of Three-River Source Regions" was established, and "The project of ecological protection and construction for the Three-River Headwaters Nature Reserve" was implemented by the Chinese government. This study, based on MODIS-NDVI and climate data, aims to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage and its driving factors in the TRHR between 2000 and 2011, from three dimensions. Linear regression, Hurst index analysis, and partial correlation analysis were employed. The results showed the following:(1) In the past 12 years(2000–2011), the NDVI of the study area increased, with a linear tendency being 1.2%/10a, of which the Yangtze and Yellow River source regions presented an increasing trend, while the Lancang River source region showed a decreasing trend.(2) Vegetation coverage presented an obvious spatial difference in the TRHR, and the NDVI frequency was featured by a bimodal structure.(3) The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area, being 64.06% and 35.94%, respectively during the study period, and presented an increasing trend in the north and a decreasing trend in the south.(4) The reverse characteristics of vegetation coverage change are significant. In the future, degradation trends will be mainly found in the Yangtze River Basin and to the north of the Yellow River, while areas with improving trends are mainly distributed in the Lancang River Basin.(5) The response of vegetation coverage to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration has a time lag, while there is no such lag in the case of temperature.(6) The increased vegetation coverage is mainly attributed to the warm-wet climate change and the implementation of the ecological protection project.     

1976–2010年波兰湖泊水位变化（英文）

The paper presents the analysis of tendencies in water level changes in 32 lakes in Poland during 1976–2010.Series of monthly,seasonal,and annual precipitation and air temperature for 9 meteorological stations were also studied.The trend analysis for all of the studied series of water levels in lakes showed high spatial and temporal variability.Series of annual water levels in the case of 6 lakes showed statistically significant increasing tendencies,and in 7 lakes,significant decreasing trends.Series of annual amplitudes in the majority of lakes(22) showed a decreasing trend,but they were statistically significant only in three cases.The tendencies for air temperature fluctuations are more statistically significant than precipitation.The key role in determining water level changes is played by local factors,particularly including human economic activity,obscuring the effect of natural factors on water level changes.The paper describes cases of changes in water levels in lakes under anthropopressure related to among others: agricultural irrigations,hydropower infrastructure,water transfers,navigation,or mining.     

2011—2020年黄淮海平原冬小麦低温冷害与气象要素变化的时空分析（英文）

黄淮海平原是我国典型的农田生态系统之一,频发的低温冷害对该区域的冬小麦种植业造成了巨大的经济损失。为了有效、大范围地监测冷害的时空变化情况及其气象成因,利用2005–2015年来源于气象站点的逐日最低气温和MODIS的NDVI和FPAR数据,结合逻辑回归模型构建了黄淮海平原冬小麦低温冷害监测模型,并分析了2011–2020年黄淮海平原冬小麦冷害的时空变化。将其与气象要素的时空变化进行相关性分析,了解气象要素对冬小麦低温冷害发生情况的影响。结果表明,2011–2020年冬小麦冷害的危害性逐渐降低,且冷害发生高概率、高频区域由北向南移动。同时,气象要素对冬小麦受害程度的影响从高到低分别为热量、降水和日照时长,但这些要素的影响具有一定的空间异质性。