中国航空运输的时空格局演变与发展预测（英文）

This paper analyses the features and dynamic changes of the spatial layout of air transportation utilization among different provinces in China. It makes use of data for the airport throughput and socio-economic development of every province throughout the country in the years 2006 and 2015, and employs airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita and per unit of GDP as measures of regional air transportation utilization, which is significant for refining indicators of regional air transportation scale and comparing against them. It also analyzes the spatial differences of coupling between the regional air transportation utilization indicators and the key influencing factors on regional air transportation demand and utilization, which include per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density. Based on these key influencing factors, it establishes a multiple linear regression model to conduct forecasting of each province's future airport passenger and cargo throughput as well as throughput growth rates. The findings of the study are as follows:(1) Between 2006 and 2015, every province throughout the country showed a trend of year on year growth in their airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita. Throughput per capita grew fastest in Hebei, with a rise of 780%, and slowest in Beijing, with a rise of 38%. Throughput per capita was relatively high in western and southeastern coastal regions, and relatively low in northern and central regions. Airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP showed growth in provinces with relatively slow economic development, and showed negative growth in provinces with relatively rapid economic development. Throughput per unit of GDP grew fastest in Hebei, rising 265% between 2006 and 2015, and Hunan had the fastest negative growth, with a fall of 44% in the same period. Southwestern regions had relatively high throughput per unit of GDP, while in central, northern, and northeastern regions it was relatively low.(2) Strong correlation exists between airport passenger and cargo throughput per capita and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density. Throughput per capita has positive correlation with per capita GDP and urbanization rate in all regions, and positive correlation with population density in most regions. Meanwhile, there is weak correlation between airport passenger and cargo throughput per unit of GDP and per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and population density, with positive correlation in some regions and negative correlation in others.(3) Between 2015 and 2025, it is estimated that all provinces experience a trend of rapid growth in their airport passenger and cargo throughput. Inner Mongolia and Hebei will see the fastest growth, rising221% and 155%, respectively, while Yunnan, Sichuan, and Hubei will see the slowest growth, with increases of 62%, 63%, and 65%, respectively.     

近30年玉门市土地利用与景观格局变化及其驱动力

干旱内陆河流域生态环境非常脆弱,是土地利用和景观格局变化的敏感区域,也是全球环境变化响应比较突出的区域。采用1976年、1989年、2000年和2010年的Landsat遥感影像,利用GIS技术和景观格局分析方法,系统地分析了疏勒河中游玉门市的土地利用和景观格局变化的时空特征,为研究区土地可持续利用政策的制定提供参考和依据。研究结果显示:近34a来,玉门市土地利用和景观格局发生了剧烈变化,土地利用变化经历了"缓慢变化—急剧变化—显著变化"的过程。研究区景观密度增大,多样性和均匀度先减小,后增加;不同斑块间的分离度减小。农业人口增长和经济发展是玉门市土地利用景观格局变化的最直接驱动力,同时还受气候因素和政策因素的影响。     

中国边境地区城镇化时空格局及其驱动力

Border area is not only an important gateway for inland opening-up,but also an important part of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and optimizing national urban spatial pattern in China.Due to the location,natural resources endowment,and traffic accessibility,the urbanization speed is relatively slow in border areas.Therefore,it is a special area that needs to pay close attention to,especially under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and China's regional coordinated development program.Based on the county-level data from 2000 to 2015,this paper tries to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urbanization in 134 border counties,and applies geographical detector method to study the driving forces of urbanization in border areas.Conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2015,urbanization rate in border areas has been lower than the national average,and the gap has been widening.Some border counties in southern Xinjiang,Tibet,northeast of Inner Mongolia,and Yunnan,are even facing the problem of population loss.(2)In the same period,urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border is low,while their urbanization rate grows relatively faster comparing with other border counties;urbanization rate in Tibet border is the lowest and grows relatively slowly;urbanization rate in the northeastern and northern border is slightly higher,but it grows slowly or even stagnates.(3)Transportation and industry are the important driving forces of urbanization in border areas,while the driving forces of market is relatively weak.And there are obvious mutual reinforcements among the driving forces,while the effort and explanatory power of resource force increases obviously after interaction.(4)Urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border areas grows relatively fast,with industrial force and transportation force,market force and administrative force as the main driving forces respectively.Tibet border area has the lowest urbanization rate and growth rate,as the driving force of urbanization with strong contribution has not yet formed in Tibet.In the northeastern and northern border areas,the contribution of transportation force to urbanization is greater than other forces,and its interaction with market and industry has obvious effects.     

山区耕地撂荒格局及驱动力分析（英文）

耕地撂荒正从发达国家向中国等发展中国家蔓延。由于特定的自然地理条件,我国山区普遍存在耕地撂荒现象。然而,由于缺乏中高分辨率遥感影像监测手段,我国许多山区弃耕地规模尚不明确,耕地撂荒的驱动机制也未厘清。基于此,本文以重庆市忠县为例,利用Landsat 8 OLI＿TIRS遥感影像数据,提出了一种基于土地利用年变化监测的山区弃耕地空间化方法。同时,采用岭回归方法对影响耕地撂荒的因素进行分析。结果表明,重庆市忠县耕地撂荒率为7.86%,耕地撂荒提取的总体精度为90.82%。在影响耕地撂荒的社会经济因素中,农村人口、经济发展和畜牧业发展贡献最大。在地块尺度上,海拔650m以上或坡度大于15°的地方发生了大规模的耕地撂荒。     

中国经济空间发展格局演变及其驱动力分析

在Mann-Kendall方法基础上对1978年以来中国经济发展进行突变点分析。结合传统数理统计方法及空间分析模型,在Arc GIS、Geo DA等软件支持下,以省级行政区为研究单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,从时间、空间、关联性、驱动因子等视角对改革开放以来我国经济发展状况进行深入分析。结果表明:我国经济总体呈快速发展趋势,东中西部发展差异显著,但总体差异逐步减小;我国经济空间分布呈现出东北-西南格局,主半轴方向上表现为收缩趋势,辅半轴方向上则为波动扩张格局;我国经济发展高水平区不断增多,低水平区不断减少,最终消失,总体经济水平得到显著提高;根据关联性分析得出扩散型主要集中于东部地区,坍塌型主要分布于中部地区,东西差异依旧明显;改革开放以来推动我国经济发展主要是以消费为主、投资为辅的"双轮驱动"逐步转向由投资、出口、消费协调推动,区域协调发展势头良好。     

基于投入产出技术的全球生产网络时空格局演变及驱动因素分析（英文）

Global production networks have become the most important organizational platforms for coordinating international production activities, and their evolution patterns profoundly affect value distribution across the world. In this study, we shall firstly carry out an in-depth quantitative research to analyze the patterns and evolution of global production networks, using a long time-sequenced multi-region input-output table and the network analysis approach. Then based on the method of value-added decomposition, we will develop an index system to measure the degree of participation of regions in global production networks. Finally, we will try to identify the factors affecting the degree of participation of countries in global production networks by constructing a regression model. The results show that from 1995 to 2015, the evolution of global production networks measured by input-output linkages experienced four stages: expansion, contraction, re-expansion, and re-contraction. In addition, the core communities of global production networks evolved from two major production communities(Europe and the Americas) to three pillars(Europe, Americas, and Asia) while more segmented communities are mainly affected by geographical proximity. The latter consists of European, North American, South American, African and Asian communities. The evolution of the global production network pattern primarily manifests as a process of cooperation strengthening or weakening among communities, based on changes in the external environment and the need for individual development strategies. Meanwhile, the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom have consistently ranked among the top entities in global production networks, whereas China, Russia, and Southeast Asia have the fastest rises in ranking. In addition, government efficiency, resources endowment, infrastructure conditions and technology levels play important roles in the participation in global production networks.     

京津冀干旱时空演变规律分析（英文）

Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.     

近10年中国土地利用格局及其演变

在遥感技术与GIS技术的支持下，通过1：10万中国土地利用数据库经过分层提取，生成中国土地利用类型空间分布格局数据库，在此基础上对中国土地利用空间格局进行了分析，而后在引入景观多样性指数，优势度指数，均匀度指数，破碎度指数以及土地利用重心迁移模型和景观类型转移模型的基础上，对中国土地利用景观格局及其空间演变模式进行了定量分析，研究结果表明，10年间，中国耕地重心向北偏东偏移20．93km左右，林地重心向南偏西移动20．35km，草地重心向南偏西方向迁移了18．45km，建设用地重心向南偏东移动，而未利用地重心则向西北偏移7．21km。     

过去40年中国城市扩展及其时空差异分析（英文）

The urban expansion process in China from the 1970 s to 2013 was retrieved based on remote sensing and GIS technology. With the latest zoning method used as reference, annual expansion area per city, urban expansion type, and fractal dimension index were employed to analyze the Chinese urban expansion characteristics and its spatial difference from the aspects of urban expansion process, influence of urban expansion on land use, and urban spatial morphological evolutions. Results indicate that 1) under the powerful guidance of policies, urban expansion in China went through six different stages, and cities in the eastern region entered the rapid expansion period the earliest, followed by cities in the central, northeastern and western regions; 2) cultivated lands and rural settlements and industrial traffic lands were the important land sources for urban expansion in China; the influence of urban expansion on land use in the eastern region was the strongest, followed by the central, northeastern and western regions; 3) urban spatial morphology tended to be complex and was directly related to the adopted spatial expansion mode. Infilling expansion became the main urban expansion mode in the western region first, then in the central and northeastern regions, and finally in the eastern region. This study establishes the foundation for an in-depth recognition of urban expansion in China and optimization of future urban planning.     

永年洼湿地景观格局演变及其驱动力分析

永年洼湿地作为河北省南部唯一的内陆淡水湿地,具有重要的生态价值。查明湿地景观格局演变特征及其驱动力,是科学合理制定湿地保护和修复对策的重要依据。以1987—2017年8期Landsat卫星遥感影像为数据源,结合野外实地调查,通过监督分类和目视解译法获得永年洼湿地的土地利用/覆被分类图,在此基础上,从面积变化、类型转换、景观格局指数变化等方面,分析30 a来湿地的景观格局演变特征及其变化趋势,并采用灰色关联度法,明确影响湿地变化的主要驱动力。结果表明,1987—2017年,永年洼湿地面积先减少后增加,整体减少了31.77 hm²(5.45%),其中,1987—2010年,湿地面积呈下降趋势,降幅达28.86%;2010—2017年,湿地面积呈增加趋势,2017年湿地面积与2010年相比增加了32.91%,且恢复到1987年湿地面积的94.55%;30 a来,永年洼湿地景观类型间转移强烈,且不同时段转移特征不同,湿地景观趋于破碎化和复杂化,景观异质性增强;永年洼湿地景观格局的变化是自然因素和人为因素综合作用的结果,其中自然因素为主要驱动力,自然因素中的降水量、水面蒸发...     

中国城市空气质量时空演化特征及社会经济驱动力（英文）

Air pollution is a serious problem brought by the rapid urbanization and economic development in China, imposing great challenges and threats to population health and the sustainability of the society. Based on the real-time air quality monitoring data obtained for each Chinese city from 2013 to 2014, the spatiotemporal characteristics of air pollution are analyzed using various exploratory spatial data analysis tools. With spatial econometric models, this paper further quantifies the influences of socioeconomic factors on air quality at both the national and regional scales. The results are as follows:(1) From 2013 to 2014, the percentage of days compliance of urban air quality increased but air pollution deteriorated and the worsening situation in regions with poor air quality became more obvious.(2) Changes of air quality show a clear temporal coupling with regional socioeconomic activities, basically "relatively poor at daytime and relatively good at night".(3) Urban air pollution shows a spatial pattern of "heavy in the east and light in the west, and heavy in the north and light in the south".(4) The overall extent and distribution of regional urban air pollution have clearly different characteristics. The formation and evolution of regional air pollution can be basically induced as "the pollution of key cities is aggravated—pollution of those cities spreads— regional overall pollution is aggravated—the key cities lead in pollution governance—regional pollution joint prevention and control is implemented—regional overall pollution is reduced".(5) At the national level, energy consumption, industrialization and technological progress are the major factors in the worsening of urban air quality, economic development is a significant driver for the improvement of that quality.(6) Influenced by resources, environment and the development stage, the socioeconomic factors had strongly variable impacts on air quality, in both direction and intensity in different regions. Based on the conclusion, the regional differentiation and development idea of the relationship between economic development and environmental changes in China are discussed.     

东江湖流域及其受益区水供给服务供需平衡时空格局分析（英文）

与水相关的生态系统服务是生态学研究的热点问题。水供给服务对区域水循环和水量平衡具有至关重要的作用。东江湖流域是国家重点流域和水资源生态补偿试点,水供给服务是该流域生态系统服务保护的重中之重。本文利用In VEST模型和社会经济数据、水资源数据分析了东江湖流域及其受益区水供给服务的产生与使用的时空分布格局,并对水供给服务的供需平衡进行时空计算,探究水供给服务的时空格局演变。结果表明:(1)1995-2010年东江湖流域及其受益区范围内的产水量整体呈现先增加后减少的趋势,在9350-12 400 m3 ha-1 y-1之间变化,2000年的平均产水量最高。各年产水量的空间分布格局相似,由上游向下游产水量逐渐减少,且城市群周边地区产水量减少的趋势比较明显。(2)1995-2010年东江湖流域及其受益区平均用水量在2900-4450 m3 ha-1 y-1之间变化,各年用水量的空间分布格局相似,均从城镇建设用地向四周递减,呈现较明显的城乡梯度变化,此外,河流两岸和湖泊周边地区的用水量较多,明显高于其他区域。(3)1995-2010年城镇建设用地及其邻近区域、河流湖泊沿岸地区的水供给服务供不应求,其他区域的水供给服务能够满足需求,其中长株潭城市群形成的品字形区域是受益区范围内供需状况最为紧张的区域。     

改革开放以来中国行政区划格局演变与驱动力分析

行政区划变更与社会经济发展密切相关,也影响着社会经济的健康发展。主要分析了1978年以来35年间中国县级以上各类型行政区的数量变化,根据变化特征和规律划分出四个发展阶段,阐述了各个阶段行政区划空间格局的发展变化,总结了中国行政区划演变的五种主要模式:建制变更、行政区拆分、行政区合并、建制升格以及新设立行政区。行政区划格局的演变受多种因素的影响,城镇化进程、中心城市的空间拓展、人口的集聚与增长、交通和通讯条件的改善以及政策因素都是行政区划格局演变的重要驱动力。在新型城镇化背景下,应该加强中国行政区划时空格局演变和驱动力分析,以期为中国未来的行政区划调整和城镇化的健康发展提供一些指导与借鉴。     

中国创新能力时空格局演变及其影响因素

创新驱动是经济发展新常态下中国发展的必然选择。本文选取2000-2014年中国30个省(市、区)的创新能力相关数据构建面板数据集,运用线性加权综合法、变异系数、基尼系数、空间自相关、NICH指数分析等方法,结合GIS空间分析软件和SPSS数据分析软件,探究中国创新能力时空格局演变及其影响因素。研究表明：①2000-2014年中国创新能力逐年提升,从2000年的0.199提升至2014年的1.775。其中知识创新能力和技术创新能力提升速度较快,而政府支撑和服务能力以及创新基础环境提升较缓慢。②创新能力区域差异由“大差距低水平”向“小差距高水平”转变,高水平和增长较快的区域主要集中在东部沿海地区,西南和西北各省(市、区)创新能力较弱且增长较慢。③区域物质资本集聚、区域智力资本集聚、区域创新环境、全球化知识溢出等是影响中国创新能力时空格局特征的主要因素。     

洞庭湖区堤垸时空分布与历史演变分析（英文）

Dongting Lake is the largest lake in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China. For centuries, people inhabiting the Dongting Lake area have been reclaiming land and constructing dams for flood resistance, agricultural production, and rural settlement, forming geographical entities known as polders. In this study, the regional spatial distributions of polders in the Dongting Lake area in 1949, 1998, and 2013 were obtained using historical maps and modern remotely sensed data, revealing changes since the establishment of the People's Republic of China. Nanxian County was then selected to demonstrate polder changes at the county level, because it has undergone the most dramatic changes in the area. Different polder change models for the Datonghu, Yule, and Renhe polders were analyzed for eight periods: 1644(the early Qing Dynasty), 1911(the late Qing Dynasty), 1930(the Republic of China), 1949(the People's Republic of China), 1963, 1970, 1998, and 2013. Three resulting polder evolution models are: 1) reclaiming polders from lakes, 2) integrating polders by stream merging, and 3) abandoning polders for flood release. The polder evolution models demonstrate the wisdom of local people in using land resources according to the specific regional conditions. Throughout their long-term historical evolution, the spatial distribution of polders in the Dongting Lake area tended to be homogeneous, and the degree of human disturbance tended to be stable. However, a shift occurred, from pure polder area growth or removal to more comprehensive management and protection of the regional environment.     

改革开放以来中国交通地理格局演变与规律（英文）

This paper reviews the process of transportation construction in China and investigates the developmental and spatial characteristics of transportation patterns. The principles of transportation evolution including stages, structures and orders are systematically analyzed. The investigation shows that China's transportation construction mode has upgraded from investment-driven scale expansion to quality improvement driven by efficiency and promotion. The rapid growth and development of transportation networks has significantly influenced economic and social activities in time and space. The resulting spatial convergence and dominance have improved distribution, promoting development of the socioeconomic structure. Regional development that has traditionally been based on corridors has changed into a networked mode centered on cities and metropolitan areas. The transportation pattern follows evolutionary principles. China has been moving from a hierarchical structure to a cascade structure. Simultaneously, the socioeconomic pattern has changed from an axis to a hub-and-spoke structure with a preliminary ordered network. As transportation networks grow, China's functional spatial structure and ordered network will gradually become stabilized and balanced.     

中国经济发展阶段及其时空格局演变特征

地级行政单元在中国经济发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色,是落实区域发展战略和相关政策的重要空间依托。现有研究中缺乏针对中国地级行政单元经济发展阶段及其时空格局演变的实证研究。本文在对经济发展阶段划分标准进行辨析的基础上,从全国和地级两个层面对中国经济发展的阶段性及其时空特征进行系统分析,并通过Global Moran’s I指数和Getis-Ord Gi*指数探讨了中国经济发展的空间演变规律。研究发现:①总体而言,中国经济发展一直处于相对的集聚状态,自1990年到2010年由初级产品生产阶段进入工业化的中期阶段,经济发展格局呈现出"均衡—不均衡—逐步均衡"的演变特征。②中国经济发展呈现出明显的由沿海向内陆地区推进的总体趋势,中西部发展水平较高的城市主要是区域性中心城市和资源富集型城市两种类型。③中国经济发展的热点区域呈现出"北移西进"的态势,东部沿海地区空间联动发展的效应有所减弱,呈现出"南上北下"的趋势,中西部地区城市仍以单体式发展为主,区域带动效应较弱,联动发展态势不明显。④从时间趋势来看,虽然全国经济发展出现了放缓的趋势,但中西部地区的经济增速却快速提高,已经明显高于沿海地区。⑤资源富集地区是中西部经济增长的热点地区,采用人均GDP单一指标测算的部分资源富集地区的经济发展阶段存在"虚高化"的特征,资源大规模集中开发带动经济总量迅速膨胀的同时,却掩盖了背后的经济结构失调和社会发展滞后等诸多问题,应引起决策者和学术界的持续关注。     

中国科技资源配置效率测度及其时空格局演变特征(英文)

According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001–2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA), science and technology(ST) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of ST resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of ST resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA). It turned out that:(1) the average of ST resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening.(2) The asymmetrical distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose ST resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China.(3) The coupling degree between ST resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of ST resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of ST resources and so on.(4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, ST resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency.(5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map ofST resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of ST resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing.     

成渝经济圈生态效率时空动态演变及其影响因素（英文）

为了响应国家十四五规划,更好地探索促进区域协调绿色发展的新战略,本文采用super-SBM模型和马尔可夫链对成渝经济圈2004–2018年的生态效率值进行了测算与时序分析,同时,利用地理加权回归模型对生态效率进行了空间分析。虽然成渝经济圈生态效率在研究期间有所提高,但其经济发展仍然是生态无效的,这意味着成渝迫切需要提高资源利用效率,促进技术创新。在研究期间,成渝经济圈的生态效率的演变呈现为“π”字形状,并伴随着“俱乐部趋同”的现象,此现象表明生态效率有保持原状的强烈趋势,说明生态效率缺乏足够的改善动力,因此很难实现跨越式转移。从空间上看,生态效率从西北向东南呈高–低–高效率分布,生态效率的时空差异缩小,但集聚效应相对较弱且呈现两极分化趋势。进一步的研究表明,城镇化发展水平、对外开放水平、技术水平、环境规制和产业结构高级化是导致生态效率空间差异的原因。成渝经济圈应针对各自弱点相应采取改善措施提高生态效率,从而促进整个区域的绿色发展。