近50年来祁连山冰川变化——基于中国第一、二次冰川编目数据

基于修订后的祁连山区第一次冰川编目(1956-1983年)和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据(2005-2010年),对祁连山区冰川变化进行分析。结果表明:1祁连山区现有冰川2684条,面积1597.81±70.30 km2,冰储量约84.48 km3。其中,甘肃省和青海省各有冰川1492条和1192条,面积分别为760.96 km2和836.85 km2。2祁连山区冰川数量和面积分别以面积1.0 km2的冰川和面积介于1~5 km2的冰川为主;冰川平均中值面积海拔为4972.7 m,并自东向西由4483.8 m逐渐上升为5234.1 m。3疏勒河流域冰川面积和冰储量最大,占祁连山冰川总量的31.91%和35.11%;其次是哈尔腾河流域,巴音郭勒河流域冰川面积最小,为2.20 km2;黑河流域是祁连山区冰川平均面积最小的四级流域,冰川平均面积仅0.21 km2。4近50年间祁连山冰川面积和冰储量分别减少420.81 km2(-20.88%)和21.63 km3(-20.26%)。面积1.0 km2的冰川急剧萎缩是该区冰川面积减少的主要原因,海拔4000 m以下山区冰川已完全消失,海拔4350~5100 m区间冰川面积减少量占冰川面积总损失的84.24%。冰川数量和面积在各个朝向均呈减少态势,其中朝北冰川面积减少最多,朝东冰川面积减少最快,而西北朝向冰川变化最为缓慢。5祁连山冰川变化呈现明显的经度地带性分异,东段冰川退缩较快,中西段冰川面积减少较慢。     

基于第二次冰川编目数据的中国冰川高度结构特征分析

主要基于第二次中国冰川编目数据,计算和分析中国西部各个山脉冰川面积随高度分布特征、冰川平衡线高度场的分布规律和积累区比率的分布特征。结果表明：① 各个山脉冰川面积随高度分布呈近似正态分布,冰川最大面积所占总面积的百分比与冰川分布高度差的比值可以作为描述冰川面积随高度分布的形状参数;② 平衡线高度的分布特征受气候和地形影响,由南向北逐渐降低,由东向西逐渐升高;西北和南部高大山脉边缘比较密集,青藏高原内部比较稀疏。③ 冰川积累区比率的分布特征与水汽、地形和物理冰川属性有关。各大山脉外侧和海洋型冰川区积累区比率较小（<0.5）,山脉内侧及高原内陆地区和极大陆型冰川区的积累区比率较大（>0.7）。     

基于第二次冰川编目的中国冰川现状

以2004年之后的Landsat TM/ETM+和ASTER遥感影像为基础,参考第一次中国冰川目录及其他文献资料,经过影像校正、自动解译、野外考察、人工修订、交互检查和成果审定等技术环节,完成占全国冰川总面积85.5%的现状冰川编目,确定中国目前共有冰川48571条,总面积约5.18×10⁴βkm²,约占全国国土面积的0.54%,冰川储量约4.3~4.7×10³βkm³。中国冰川数量和面积分别以面积<0.5βkm²的冰川和面积介于1.0~50.0βkm²的冰川为主,面积最大的冰川是音苏盖提冰川（359.05βkm²）。中国西部14座山系（高原）均有冰川分布,其中昆仑山冰川数量最多,其次是天山、念青唐古拉山、喜马拉雅山和喀喇昆仑山,这5座山系冰川数量占全国冰川总数量的72.3%;冰川面积和冰储量位列前3位的山系分别为昆仑山、念青唐古拉山和天山,尽管喀喇昆仑山冰川数量和面积均小于喜马拉雅山,但前者冰储量高于后者。从冰川海拔分布来看,海拔4500~6500βm之间是冰川集中发育区域,约占全国冰川总面积的4/5以上。冰川资源在各流域分布差异显著,东亚内流区（5Y）是中国冰川分布数量最多、面积最大的一级流域,约占全国冰川总量的2/5以上;黄河流域（5J）是冰川数量最少、规模最小的一级流域,仅有冰川164条,面积126.72βkm²。新疆和西藏的冰川面积和冰储量约占全国冰川总面积的9/10。     

祁连山冰川服务价值评估及其时空特征（英文）

Glaciers provide essential resources and services for human well-being and socio-economic development in arid regions. It is of great significance for regional socioeconomic sustainable development and environmental protection to conduct a glacier service value assessment and to analyze its spatiotemporal characteristics. Based on the first and second Chinese glacier inventories of the Qilian Mountains, a glacier service value evaluation system was established. Then the glacier service value and its spatiotemporal variation were assessed by combining the methods of unit area service price, value equivalent factor, and the glacier service value change index(GSCI). Three key results were obtained.(1) The total service value of glaciers in the Qilian Mountains for 2016 was 24.354 billion yuan. The main services provided were climate regulation and runoff regulation, which accounted for 60.58% and 33.14% of the total service value, respectively. Minor services were freshwater supply and hydropower, which accounted for 3.47% and 1.75% of the total value, respectively. The value of other types of services was about 0.259 billion yuan.(2) Among the various river systems in the Qilian Mountains, the Shule River basin had the highest glacier service value(7.771 billion yuan, 31.91%), followed by the Haltang River basin(4.321 billion yuan, 17.74%) and the Beida River basin(3.281 billion yuan, 13.47%). In terms of administrative divisions, the glacier service value of the Qilian Mountains in Qinghai Province was 1.138 billion yuan higher than that of Gansu Province at 11.608 billion yuan, of which the services in the Haixi Mongol and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Jiuquan City were valued at 11.124(45.68%) and 7.758(31.86%) billion yuan, respectively.(3) During the period from 1956 to 2010, the service value of glaciers in the Qilian Mountains declined by 435 million yuan, with an acceleration in the decreasing trend from west to east.     

近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析(英文)

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. 1:50,000 topographic map data, Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images and digital elevation model data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier outline information. Glaciers change data were derived from analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/1963–2007/ 2011 were also analyzed. The results show that:(1) In the period 1956/1963–2007/2011, the Heihe River Basin's glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km2 to 231.17 km~2; shrinking at a rate of 36.08%, with average single glacier area decrease 0.14 km~2; the total number of the glaciers decreased from 967 to 800.(2) Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300–4400 m, 4400–4500 m and 4500–4600 m; and there are significant regional differences in glaciers distribution and glaciers change.(3) Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin has a higher rate.(4) Analysis of the six meteorological stations' annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 suggests that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising, besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to some extent.     

近50年来中国天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应

基于1960 年以来中国天山各流域冰川面积变化的统计分析,系统地研究了中国天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应情况。结果表明,近50 年来中国天山冰川的面积缩小了11.5%,对研究时段统一化后发现面积年均退缩率为0.31% a^-1。各流域冰川面积退缩速度存在一定差异,但冰川加速消融趋势明显。天山地区14 个气象站的气温与降水量倾向率平均值分别为0.34 ^oC·(10 a)^-1与11 mm·(10 a)^-1,气温在干季增幅大而在湿季增幅略小,降水量在干季增长缓慢而在湿季增长显著,这样的气候变化趋势有助于天山冰川的退缩。     

中国近40年来地貌学研究的回顾与展望（英文）

Geomorphology is one of the main subdisciplines of geography.The research achievements and prospects in geomorphology have received considerable attention for a long time.In this paper,a general retrospect of geomorphologic research in China over the past 60 years was firstly addressed,especially the research progress during the last 40 years.Based on a summary of experience and a tendency of development,perspectives of geomorphologic research direction in the future were provided.It is concluded that the discipline of geomorphology has made great progress in the aspects of geomorphologic types,regionalization,as well as their subdisciplines such as dynamic geomorphology,tectonic geomorphology,climatic geomorphology,lithological geomorphology,palaeogeomorphology.We believe that persisting in the unity principle between morphological and genetic types would be conductive for the development of traditional landforms and integrated landforms.In addition,five perspectives aim to enhance China’s geomorphologicl research capacity were proposed.They are:(1)strengthening the research of basic geomorphologic theory and the research of integrated geomorphology to expand the research space;(2)focusing more on the research of geomorphologic structure and geomorphologic function to improve the application ability of geomorphology;(3)constructing a comprehensive resource,environmental,and geomorphologic information system and building a sharing platform to upgrade the intelligent information industry of geomorphology;(4)putting more efforts on the research of coastal geomorphology and marine geomorphology to assist the transformation of China from a maritime country to an ocean power;and(5)cultivating talents and constructing research teams to maintain a sustainable development of China’s geomorphologic research.     

祁连山区现代冰川发育条件、分布特征及区划——据最新冰川编目资料分析

祁连山区(包括阿尔金山东端),位于青藏高原的东北沿,跨越青海、甘肃两省之间,为河西和柴达木两内陆水系的发源地,是我国冰川研究最早的地区。1979—1980年,兰州冰川冻土研究所使用国际冰川目录编纂规范,再次对本区进行了比较详细的冰川编     

近50 年来祁连山及河西走廊降水的时空变化

利用1960-2009 年的日降水量资料,采用线性趋势、5 年趋势滑动、IDW 空间插值、Morlet 小波分析、Mann-Kendall 突变检验等方法,对祁连山及河西走廊地区不同等级降水日数和降水强度的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:不同等级降水日数和降水强度的多年平均在空间上既表现出东西分异,也表现出南北分异;不同等级降水日数的年际变化在绝大部分区域呈增多趋势,且自东向西增幅减小,大雨强度的年际变化在绝大部分区域呈增大趋势,其它等级降水强度为部分区域呈增大趋势,部分区域呈减小趋势;小雨、中雨日数的年际变化呈显著增多趋势,大雨日数呈明显增多趋势,暴雨日数呈不明显增多趋势,小雨、大雨强度的年际变化呈不明显减小趋势,中雨、暴雨强度呈不明显增大趋势;不同等级降水日数变化的周期集中在2a、5a、8a、11a、19a,不同等级降水强度变化的周期集中在2a、5a、11a、15a、25a;除小雨强度突变减小外,其它等级降水日数均突变增多,降水强度均突变增大,降水量的增加主要是降水日数的增多造成的,其中小雨、中雨日数的增多贡献最大。     

近50 年来天山地区典型冰川厚度及储量变化

冰川储量变化与冰川水资源量变化以及冰川对河川径流的贡献量密切相关。在GPR-3S技术支持下, 本研究基于雷达测厚数据、不同时期的高分辨率遥感影像、地形图及实测资料, 分析了天山三个典型地区四条代表性冰川近期厚度及储量变化特征, 并通过对比探讨了造成变化差异的可能原因。结果表明, 1962-2006 年乌鲁木齐河源1 号冰川厚度平均减薄0.15m a^-1, 冰储量亏损26.2×10⁶ m³, 冰川末端平均退缩3.8 m a^-1;博格达峰南坡的黑沟8 号冰川在1986-2009 年间, 冰舌平均减薄0.57 m a^-1, 冰储量损失了25.5×10⁶ m³, 末端平均退缩11.0 m a^-1;位于博格达峰北坡的四工河4 号冰川在1962-2009 年间冰舌平均减薄0.32 m a^-1, 冰储量亏损14.0×10⁶ m³, 末端平均后退8.0 m a^-1;1964-2008 年间, 托木尔峰青冰滩72 号冰川冰舌平均减薄0.22 m a^-1, 由此至少造成冰储量亏损14.1×10⁶ m³, 末端退缩达40.0 m a^-1。对比分析显示, 青冰滩72 号冰川消融退缩最为强烈, 黑沟8 号冰川次之, 与乌鲁木齐河源1 号冰川、科其喀尔冰川相差不大, 稍大于四工河4 号冰川和哈密庙尔沟冰川。这种差异可能与区域气候变化和冰川物理特征有直接关系。     

近50年气候变化背景下中国西部冰川面积状况分析(英文)

Based on the glacier area variation records in the typical regions of China moni-tored by remote sensing, as well as the meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation from 139 stations and the 0℃ isotherm height from 28 stations, the glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background in the past half century was discussed. The initial glacier area calculated in this study was 23,982 km2 in the 1960s/1970s, but the present area was only 21,893 km2 in the 2000s. The area-weighted shrinking rate of glacier was 10.1%, and the interpolated annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glacier was 0.3% a-1 since 1960. The high APAC was found at the Ili River Basin and the Junggar Interior Basin around the Tianshan Mountains, the Ob River Basin around the Altay Mountains, the Hexi Interior Basin around the Qilian Mountains, etc. The retreat of glacier was affected by the climatic background, and the influence on glacier of the slight-increased precipitation was counteracted by the significant warming in summer.     

基于格点数据的1961-2012年祁连山山区面雨量特征分析（英文）

Based on a 0.5°×0.5° daily gridded precipitation dataset and observations in meteorological stations released by the National Meteorological Information Center,the interannual variation of areal precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during 1961–2012 is investigated using principal component analysis(PCA) and regression analysis,and the relationship between areal precipitation and drought accumulation intensity is also analyzed.The results indicate that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains can be well reflected by the gridded dataset.The gridded data-based precipitation in mountainous region is generally larger than that in plain region,and the eastern section of the mountain range usually has more precipitation than the western section.The annual mean areal precipitation in the Qilian Mountains is 724.9×108 m3,and the seasonal means in spring,summer,autumn and winter are 118.9×108 m3,469.4×108 m3,122.5×108 m3 and 14.1×108 m3,respectively.Summer is a season with the largest areal precipitation among the four seasons,and the proportion in summer is approximately 64.76%.The areal precipitation in summer,autumn and winter shows increasing trends,but a decreasing trend is seen in spring.Among the four seasons,summer have the largest trend magnitude of 1.7×108 m3?a–1.The correlation between areal precipitation in the mountainous region and dry-wet conditions in the mountains and the surroundings can be well exhibited.There is a negative correlation between drought accumulation intensity and the larger areal precipitation is consistent with the weaker drought intensity for this region.     

近50年北京市暴雨趋势及其空间差异分析（英文）

在全球气候变暖大背景下,暴雨等极端天气事件频发,引发城市洪涝灾害。研究大城市暴雨的时空变化特征,可以为城市排水设施的设计提供参考,减轻城市洪涝灾害的危害。本文基于1960–2010年北京市20个气象台站的逐日降水量数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、累积距平曲线等方法,分析了北京市暴雨日数和暴雨量的时空变化特征。研究结果表明,北京市暴雨日数下降趋势不显著,但次均暴雨量、年最大日降水量在0.1显著水平上呈显著下降趋势。年均暴雨日数的空间分布由东南向西北递减,东南部平原区是暴雨特别是高强度暴雨的多发区。本文的研究结果对理解北京市暴雨洪涝灾害风险及其空间差异具有重要价值。     

近50 年气候变化背景下中国冰川面积状况分析

根据近年来中国典型区域冰川面积变化遥感监测数据,结合139 个地面站的气温、降水量与28 个探空站的0 ℃层高度气象资料,分析了近50 年气候变化背景下中国冰川面积状况。结果表明,研究区冰川面积从20 世纪60-70 年代的23982 km²减小到21 世纪初的21893 km²,根据冰川分布进行加权计算后冰川面积退缩了10.1%,对时间插补后得到1960 年以来的冰川面积年均变化率为0.3 % a^-1。就冰川面积变化的空间分布特征而言,天山的伊犁河流域、准噶尔内流水系、阿尔泰山的鄂毕河流域、祁连山的河西内流水系等都是冰川退缩程度较高的区域。近50 年中国冰川区夏季地面气温与大气0 ℃层高度均呈上升趋势,而降水量的增幅却相对轻微,增长的降水量不足以抵消升温对冰川的影响,气候变暖是影响冰川面积变化的主要因素。     

近50年来中国经济重心移动路径分析

中国经济重心主要分布在豫皖交界处,1978年前大体位于安徽省西部,1978年后几乎全部分布于河南省东南部;1952～2000年间经济重心移动轨迹呈"士"字型态势发展;近50年来总移动趋势为由北向南,总移动距离为173.14km;每年移动距离和方向与中国区域经济发展政策有密切关系。     

近50年气候变化背景下青藏高原冰川和湖泊变化(英文)

本文综述了近年来青藏高原冰川和湖泊变化研究取得的成果,并特别着重于冰川和湖泊变化的相互关系论述。在全球变暖背景下,近几十年青藏高原冰川以退缩为主,湖泊水量以增加为主。本文一方面对青藏高原冰川末端退缩、冰川面积和冰川储量变化方面的研究成果进行了综合分析,探讨了冰川变化的时空特征;另一方面从湖泊面积和水位与水量变化探讨了湖泊变化的时空规律。结果表明青藏高原冰川退缩的幅度总体上呈从青藏高原外缘向内陆呈减小的变化态势,受冰川融水补给比较大的湖泊近期面积扩张、水位上升明显。最后指出了青藏高原冰川、湖泊变化研究中存在的问题及今后的发展趋势。     

近50年来祁连山及河西走廊极端气温的季节变化特征

利用1960～2009年的日平均气温资料,采用线性趋势、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall法对祁连山及河西走廊极端气温的季节变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:各季节极端高温天气呈显著增多趋势,极端低温天气呈显著减少趋势;各季节极端气温天气的变化周期略有不同,春、夏、秋、冬季极端高温天气的主周期分别为8、14、16、16 a,极端低温天气的主周期分别为14、16、14、6 a;春、夏、秋、冬季极端高温天气分别在2002、1997、1994、1986年突变增多,极端低温天气分别在2002、1997、1987、1986年突变减少,秋、冬季极端气温天气对全球气候变暖的响应比春、夏季早。     

1975-2016年天山中段阿克苏河流域冰川变化分析（英文）

In this study, we analyzed glacier changes in the Aksu River Basin during the period 1975–2016, based on Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI imagery analysis and the Chinese Glacier Inventory(CGI). The results showed that the total number, area, and volume of the studied glaciers in the Aksu River Basin decreased by 202(7.65%), 965.7 km~2(25.88%), and 74.85–78.52 km~3(23.72%–24.3%), respectively. The rate of glacier retreat in the basin was slower in the north, northwest and west, but reached the highest in the east(measuring 0.86% yr~(-1)). Furthermore, there were significant regional differences in the distribution and change of glaciers, the Kumalak River Basin had the largest glacier number and area, about 63.15% and 76.47% of the studied basin, and the rate of glacier retreat in the Kumalak River Basin was 0.65% yr~(-1), it was higher than the Toxkan River Basin which reached 0.57% yr~(-1). We found the shrinkage rate of glacier for different periods in the past 41 years, during 1975–1990 the glaciers showed the greatest retreat, while the rate of glacier area retreat slowed down significantly from 1990 to 2000. In recent 16 years since 2000, the rate of glacier retreat in the Toxkan River Basin was higher compared with 1990–2000. The RGI50~(-1)3.04920 glacier of Kumalak River Basin had been in a state of retreat since 1990. Over the past 41 years, the temperature and precipitation in the Aksu River Basin increased obviously, and the warming temperatures were clearly the main reason for glacier retreat in the region, while the increased precipitation in the mountain area may have a direct relation with the retreating rate of glaciers.     

近50 年来祁连山及河西走廊地区极端降水的时空变化研究

利用1960~2009年的日降水量资料,选用13项极端降水指数,采用线性趋势、10年趋势滑动、Mann-kendall等方法,对祁连山及河西走廊地区极端降水的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：极端降水日数呈增多趋势,极端降水强度呈减小趋势,极端降水总量呈增加趋势,连续干旱日数、连续湿润日数呈减少趋势,一日最大降水量、五日最大降水量呈增大趋势;极端降水变化存在一定区域差异,走廊平原中西部的降水明显增加,降水变率在减小,走廊平原中部极端降水的日数在增多,降水极值在增大,走廊平原祁连山东部的降水在增加,降水极值在增大,但连续极端降水的总量在减少,祁连山中部的降水在明显增加,降水的极端性在明显增大,对气候变暖的响应最敏感;不同极端降水指数分别在20世纪60年代中期、70年代中期、80年代初期、80年代中后期、90年代中期发生了突变,这些突变点与东亚季风、南亚季风、西风环流等大尺度环流系统强弱变化的时间点是一致的。     

近50年来中国西北地区干湿状况时空分布

根据西北地区77个气象台站气候资料,并利用改进的Penman公式,计算了该地区1958年~2001年的44年平均潜在蒸散量的时空分布,并分析了与降水量变化之间的关系,得到4种类型潜在蒸散量与降水量年际变化的组合分布型。其中年平均潜在蒸散量减小而年降水量增大的组合占研究区站点总数的40%以上。分析潜在蒸散量及观测蒸发量与各气候因子的相关性,发现干旱区的蒸发与太阳辐射和风速有关。定义干燥指数为潜在蒸散量与降水量的比值,用来描述西北干旱区的干湿状况。对干旱区四个季节(春、夏、秋、冬)干燥指数近50年的线性变化趋势分析结果显示,干旱区春季大部分区域干燥指数呈增加趋势,即趋于变干;夏季大部分地区趋于变湿,但仅在新疆东部和甘肃西部较为明显;秋季新疆大部、甘肃西部和青海北部等地区趋于变湿,而干旱区东部区域则趋于变干。冬季干旱区大部分区域趋于变湿,只有新疆西南部和西北部及东部部分地区、甘肃西部和内蒙西部等地有变干趋势。