可可西里盐湖湖水外溢可能性初探

2011年9月可可西里地区卓乃湖溃决后,关于盐湖湖水能否外溢进入楚玛尔河继而成为长江的最北源是公众及学界普遍关注的话题。本研究基于2010-2015年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、SRTM 1弧秒数据、Google Earth高程数据和五道梁气象台站观测数据,首次对盐湖变化、湖水外溢条件及其可能性进行分析。结果表明：卓乃湖溃决后,盐湖在2011年10月至2013年4月期间面积急剧增加,之后湖泊进入稳定扩张期,2015年10月27日盐湖面积为151.38 km²,是2010年3月3日湖泊面积的3.35倍。盐湖发生湖水外溢的条件是湖泊面积达到218.90~220.63 km²。由于SRTM和Google Earth高程数据间的差异,盐湖湖水外溢时的水位将比当前高12 m或9.6 m,相应湖泊库容增加23.71 km³或17.27 km³,届时湖水将由湖泊东侧流入清水河流域。尽管盐湖在未来10年内不可能发生湖水外溢,但是随着盐湖集水区的扩大及预估的区域未来降水量的增加,在更长时间尺度内盐湖发生湖水外溢并成为长江支流的可能性依然存在。     

可可西里地区库赛湖变化及湖水外溢成因

以库赛湖研究区地形图、Landsat TM/ETM+和中国环境与灾害监测预报卫星HJ1A/BCCD影像为基础,结合五道梁气象站气温降水资料,利用地理信息技术和数理统计方法,对2011 年9 月可可西里地区库赛湖湖水外溢成因进行分析。结果表明,库赛湖湖水外溢发生在2011 年9 月20 日至30 日期间,卓乃湖湖水进入库赛湖是后者发生变化的直接原因,而库赛湖规模近20 年来的持续增长,尤其是2006 年之后湖泊面积快速增加是其湖水外溢的基础。卓乃湖湖水外泄的主要诱因是区域持续降水,其中8 月17 日和21 日强降水使卓乃湖于8 月22 日出现漫顶溢流,8 月31 日至9 月5 日、9 月16 日至17 日期间两次持续降水导致卓乃湖水量剧增,并在9 月14 日至21 日期间形成洪水。由于水量外泄,卓乃湖面积骤降,截至11 月29 日,湖泊面积168.07 km²,仅为8 月22 日湖泊面积的62%,共减少104.88 km²。库赛湖外溢湖水流入海丁诺尔后又进入盐湖,其中海丁诺尔湖水进入盐湖时间介于10 月6 日至20 日期间。外来湖水大量进入导致海丁诺尔和盐湖在10-11月份快速扩大。     

外溢效应抵消亚马逊的环境保护成果（英文）

Diverse conservation efforts have been expanding around the globe,even under the stress of increasing agricultural production.A striking example is the supply-chain agreements put upon the Amazon forest which had reduced deforestation by 80% from the early 2000 s(27,772 km2) to 2015(6207 km2).However,evaluation of these conservation efforts usually focused on the impacts within the Amazon biome only,while the effects that spill over to other areas(e.g.,displacement of environmental pressure from one area to another) were rarely considered.Ignoring spillover effects may lead to biased or even wrong conclusions about the effectiveness of these conservation efforts because the hidden cost outside the target area of conservation may offset the achievement within it.It is thus important to assess the spillover effects of these supply-chain agreements.In this study,we used the two supply-chain agreements(i.e.,Soy Moratorium and zero-deforestation beef agreement) implemented in the Amazon biome as examples and evaluated their spillover effects to the Cerrado.To achieve a holistic evaluation of the spillover effects,we adopted the telecoupling framework in our analysis.The application of the telecoupling framework includes the interactions between distant systems and extends the analytical boundaries beyond the signatory areas,which fill the gap of previous studies.Our results indicate that the supply-chain agreements have significantly reduced deforestation by half compared to projections within the sending system(i.e.,Pará State in the Amazon,which exports soybeans and other agricultural products),but at the cost of increasing deforestation in the spillover system(i.e.,a 6.6 time increase in Tocantins State of the Cerrado,where deforestation was affected by interactions between the Amazon and other places).Our study emphasizes that spillover effects should be considered in the evaluation and planning of conservation efforts,for which the telecoupling framework works as a useful tool to do that systematically.     

可可西里盐湖及其沉积特征初步研究

通过对可可西里地区盐湖的沉积学、地球化学和遥感学的研究,发现该地区盐湖的水化学类型多数为硫酸镁亚型,个别为氯化物型,而没有碳酸盐型盐湖。盐湖水化学特征为矿化度高,pH值中性到偏弱酸性,密度在1.10 g/L左右;B-Li微量元素具有共生元素对属性,Sr-Ba、As-Hg等具反生元素对属性。盐湖中的锂、硼等物质很可能来自于与火山和断裂构造有关的地下热泉。沉积的盐类矿物主要为石盐、芒硝、无水芒硝,另有少量的水钙芒硝、白钠镁矾、方解石、石膏、菱镁矿等盐类矿物。依据现有数据和沉积剖面推测,可可西里最早的盐类沉积很可能达到60 ka左右。     

2000-2011年可可西里地区主要湖泊冰情时空变化（英文）

Lake ice phenology,i.e.the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover,is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate.Based on the boundary data of lakes,some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data,the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000–2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology.And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) The time of freeze-up start(FUS) and freeze-up end(FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October–early November,mid-November – early December,respectively.The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month.The time of break-up start(BUS) and break-up end(BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed,and appeared in the early February – early June,early May – early June,respectively.The average ice duration(ID) and the complete ice duration(CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days,respectively.(2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years.Specifically,the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend.In contrast,the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance.This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake.The average rates of ID and CID were –2.21 d/a and –1.91 d/a,respectively.(3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors.The temperature,lake area,salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice.However,the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well.(4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process.The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.     

青海可可西里东部盐湖水化学及沉积特征初步研究

2008 a夏对可可西里地区东部4个新发现的盐湖,进行了卤水水化学组分、矿物组成及其石盐元素含量分析。结果表明,该区水体卤水矿化度高,湖表卤水富硼锂等组分。通过对化学组分及水化学特征系数的研究,卤水的水化学类型主要为硫酸镁亚型和硫酸钠亚型。卤水pH值随着矿化度的增加而降低。Na+、Cl-含量与总矿化度呈正相关,SO42-"与矿化度呈负相关。Li与Mg物源、迁移规律近似。本区盐类沉积物以石盐为主,石盐中Si、Al、Fe、Sr含量低,其间相关性好,物质来源可能为周围岩石风化。布查盐湖盐类沉积存在少量硬石膏、半水石膏和铁白云石,表明布查盐湖的盐类物质来源很可能与地下热水作用有关。     

基于河湖水系连通的流域水系健康评价新思路（英文）

河湖水系连通作为新时代国家治水方略被提出,成为科学界的一个研究焦点。通过河湖连通关系的类型、"量质交换"、诸动态"流"和生态功能的讨论,提出基于河湖连通关系的河流健康评价的一个新思路。认为在健康的河湖连通系统中,河湖之间存在着良性的"量质交换",它是河湖之间最基本的物质和能量交换关系;河湖之间的物质流(水、溶解物质、泥沙、生物,污染物等)、能量流(水位、流量、流速等)、信息流(随水流、生物和人类活动而产生的信息流动等)和价值流(航运、发电、饮用和灌溉等)畅通无阻;诸种"流"在自然和人类活动的影响下,以河湖水系连通为纽带,进行河湖之间的"量质交换",实现河湖相互作用;"量质交换"是河湖连通关系演变的途径和动力源泉;良性的河湖连通关系演化最终趋于相对稳定状态,即动态平衡。     

青海可可西里东北部多秀湖和盐湖水化学特征研究

2016年3月系统采集了青海可可西里东北部多秀湖和盐湖的湖水及其入湖冰川融水。研究发现,两个湖泊湖水中离子含量均较高,主要阳离子含量顺序均为Na~+Mg~(2+)K~+Ca~(2+),主要阴离子含量顺序均为Cl~-SO_4~(2-)HCO_3~-CO_3~(2-);而入湖冰川融水的离子含量非常低。根据库尔纳可夫—瓦良什科水化学分类标准,多秀湖湖水属于硫酸盐型—硫酸镁亚型,盐湖湖水属于硫酸盐型—硫酸钠亚型。多秀湖和盐湖湖水Li—Mg—B的相关性均为正相关,说明两个湖泊中这3种元素的物质来源、搬运条件及富集环境具有很强的相似性。由于气候变暖导致大量矿化度低的冰川融水注入盐湖,矿化度较低的卓乃湖和库赛湖决堤湖水泄入盐湖,使得盐湖的面积较1997年扩大了5倍,湖水的矿化度降低了约10倍,而多秀湖近些年湖水矿化度变化较小。多秀湖湖水矿化度以及Li~+、Mg~(2+)和B_2O_3含量均较高,具有较好的资源潜在利用价值。     

青海可可西里地区勒斜武担湖水化学特征研究

2010年4月对可可西里地区勒斜武担湖进行了考察、采样和分析。研究发现,勒斜武担湖是迄今发现的第一个氯化物型盐湖锂矿床,除CO2-3外盐湖卤水离子的测定值均比1990年测定值小,这与两次采样的时间、地点不同及湖水变化有关。主要离子含量顺序为Cl-Na+Ca2+K+SO2-4Mg2+,次要离子为HCO-3CO2-3。湖水中的离子具有水平和垂直分异现象,元素含量从岸边向湖心方向递减(CO2-3、HCO-3除外),从湖面向湖底随着深度的增加元素含量先增大而后趋于稳定,前者与湖北岸边高矿化度的泉水补给岸边水体有关,后者与湖泊表面覆盖的冰层稀释表层水体有关。勒斜武担湖Li+、B3+、K+含量均较高,具有较好的资源开采利用价值。     

地缘环境系统模拟研究（英文）

Geographical circumstances are the fundamental background for all kinds of geopolitical events. The geopolitical environment system(GES) refers to a system that combines both physical and anthropogenic subsystems. Research on the geopolitical environment system simulation is a key to understanding the international geopolitical phenomenon. The theory of GES arose from the integration of the traditional geopolitics and earth system sciences. As an interdisciplinary system composed of many different fields, integrated reviews and a metadata study of GES are urgently needed. This paper presents a comprehensive view into the origination and advance of the GES theory. The conceptual framework of the GES is described in detail. The methodology for simulating and forecasting geopolitical events is also provided. It is proposed that the core topics of the GES science may include, but are not limited to, issues as data acquisition technologies; principles on the interactions between multiple subsystems(or factors) at different scales; evaluating and mitigating the global geopolitical risks, including the political risks, economic risks, the social risks, the environmental risks and the technological risks; and forecasting the geopolitical events with machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques.     

中国自然地域系统研究（英文）

Land surface is of spatial-temporal heterogeneity. Terrestrial system(TS) comprehensively studies on land surface and physical regionalization objectively describes geographical zonation of the system. China has a vast area with apparent spatial variations in resources and environmental conditions, which highly influence on socio-economic development. In this paper, progress of the TS studies in China is overviewed and research priorities in the near future are prospected. Since the 1950 s, China has paid great attention to the TS study as its socio-economic development, and conducted research on physical geographical regionalization, eco-geographical regionalization and comprehensive regionalization. Along with the deepening of global change research, dynamics of TS have been highly concerned. During the studies, methodology has been developed from qualitative research of integration of experts' brainpower gradually to quantitative research based on field observation and experiments of the natural processes, including physical, chemical and biological processes, as well as application of information technology and mathematical simulation. In the near future, TS would combine with the ideology, objectives and key researches of Future Earth program, to focus on the mechanism and regional effects of interaction among land surface elements, the response of TS to global change, the quantitative recognition on regional unit boundary, and the application to TS in sustainable socio-economic development.     

长江三角洲水系退化研究（英文）

Evolution of river systems under the background of human activities has been a heated topic among geographers and hydrologists. Spatial and temporal variations of river systems during the 1960s–2010s in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) were investigated based on streams derived from the topographic maps in the 1960 s, 1980 s and 2010 s. A list of indices, drainage density(Dd), water surface ratio(WSR), ratio of area to length of main streams(R), evolution coefficient of tributaries(K) and box dimension(D), were classified into three types(quantitative, structural, and complex indices) and used to quantify the variations of stream structure. Results showed that:(1) quantitative indices(Dd, WSR) presented decreasing trend in the past 50 years, and Dd in Wuchengxiyu, Hangjiahu and Yindongnan have decreased most, about 20%. Structurally, the Qinhuai River basin was characterized by significant upward R, and K value in Hangjiahu went down dramatically by 46.8% during the 1960s–2010s. Decreasing tendency in D was found dominating across the YRD, and decreasing magnitude in Wuchengxiyu and Hangjiahu peaks for 7.8% and 6.5%, respectively in the YRD.(2) Urbanization affected the spatial pattern of river system, and areas with high level of urbanization exhibited least Dd(2.18 km/km2), WSR(6.52%), K(2.64) and D(1.42), compared to moderate and low levels of urbanization.(3) Urbanization also affected the evolution of stream system. In the past 50 years, areas with high level of urbanization showed compelling decreasing tendency in quantitative(27.2% and 19.3%) and complex indices(4.9%) and trend of enlarging of main rivers(4.5% and 7.9% in periods of the 1960s–1980s and the 1980s–2010s). In the recent 30 years, areas with low level of urbanization were detected with significant downward trend in Dd and K.(4) Expanding of urban land, construction of hydraulic engineering and irrigation and water conservancy activities were the main means which degraded the river system in the YRD.     

生态技术识别方法研究（英文）

本文在界定生态技术概念和生态技术识别需求的基础上,梳理了现有的技术识别的方法。目前应用于技术辨识的方法主要有德尔菲法、技术路线图、层次分析法、专利计量法和文本挖掘法。其中"德尔菲法+层次分析法"把生态技术纳入到社会经济系统中进行系统化的识别,主要是构建生态技术识别的指标体系模型,分别从技术特性、技术水平和性能、经济、社会和生态效益视角进行识别;专利计量法从客观角度出发,依据生态技术自身的特点和发展规律,对其进行识别。本文认为"德尔菲法+层次分析法"和专利计量法这两种方法结合了定性和定量技术识别的优点,应该成为开展生态技术识别的首选。     

盐湖及相关资源开发利用进展（续一）

对近年来国内外盐湖资源开发利用的进展情况加以介绍 ,也涉及到国外钾、锂、镁、硼、碘等相关产品的生产、消费、价格等情况。还对资源开发的可持续发展以及我国盐湖及相关资源开发的某些问题加以讨论     

盐湖及相关资源开发利用进展（续二）

对近年来国内外盐湖资源开发利用的进展情况加以介绍 ,也涉及到国外钾、锂、镁、硼、碘等相关产品的生产、消费、价格等情况。还对资源开发的可持续发展以及我国盐湖及相关资源开发的某些问题加以讨论。     

旅游业绿色发展研究综述（英文）

绿色发展已经成为旅游产业可持续发展的重要理念和有效方式,开展旅游业绿色发展研究将有助于推进区域生态文明建设与旅游地绿色可持续发展。本文采用系统综述方法,通过回顾旅游业绿色发展历程,将我国旅游业的绿色发展划分为2个阶段:可持续发展理念下的萌芽探索阶段、绿色发展理念下的起步发展阶段。此外,文章从旅游业绿色发展的部分重要研究方法、绿色发展概念内涵辨析、绿色发展评价指标体系、绿色发展效率测度及其影响因素、绿色发展法规标准、绿色发展模式、企业绿色发展对策等方面对旅游业绿色发展进行较为系统地综述,指出我国旅游业绿色发展的积极探索对发展中国家的借鉴意义,并发现大多数研究主要以定性研究为主、定量分析为辅,相关理论体系尚未形成。因此,今后的研究应不断深化研究内容,丰富研究方法,从而构建理论体系。     

老挝生态系统服务消耗研究（英文）

生态系统利用强度成倍的增加使得生态系统服务与居民需求间的矛盾日益严峻。"一带一路"倡议的提出对老挝生产生活带来了极大的影响,科学评估生态系统服务消耗是探究居民对生态系统影响程度的重要手段。本研究通过收获指数和料肉比等参数对老挝1961–2013年农产品、水果和畜产品消费数据进行转换,分析得到了以下结论:(1)老挝以农田、森林、草地生态系统服务消耗为主,其中农田生态系统服务消耗占比超过80%且有下降趋势,森林生态系统服务消耗占比高于10%且有上升趋势,草地生态系统服务消耗占比不足2%且基本不变,三类生态系统服务消耗量均呈现出先增加、后波动、再增加的变化趋势;(2)老挝生态系统服务消耗在1961–2008年期间形成了"农田生态系统服务消耗一家独大"模式,在2008–2013年期间形成了"农田、森林和草地生态系统服务消耗均衡发展"模式,并且有从前一个模式向后一个模式转变的趋势;(3)老挝生态系统服务消耗模式形成及变化受供给和贸易的影响,老挝在1961–2008年期间以发展农业为主,形成了"农田生态系统服务消耗一家独大"的模式;得益于农、林、畜产品进口种类的不断丰富、贸易额的增长、进口量的增加,2008年后老挝生态系统服务消耗从"农田生态系统服务消耗一家独大"模式转变为"农田、森林和草地生态系统服务消耗均衡发展"模式。本研究为生态系统服务消耗研究提供了实证参考。     

乡村聚落空间优化研究（英文）

Optimizing rural settlements is an important measure to cope with rural decline, and improve the quality of rural life and attractions. This study introduces the "life quality theory". Based on the mechanisms governing the interactions between rural settlement space and life quality, this study examines how to optimize the spatial organization of rural settlements. Three aspects are evaluated – the integration of rural settlement spatial functions, optimization of spatial structure, and regulation of spatial scale – with the objective of building an optimization mode and framework for the spatial organization of rural settlements with high life quality. Our results suggest the following:(1) The settlement is the spatial carrier of life quality, which is an essential settlement component, and these two aspects influence and improve each other. Therefore, reasonable rural settlement space is an important precondition for higher life quality.(2) The spatial function types of rural settlements can be divided into those that maintain livelihoods, develop industry, and upgrade life quality. Optimizing spatial organization of rural settlements based on life quality requires promoting the maintenance of livelihood, integration of industrial development, and implantation in quality improvement.(3) There are two important components of optimizing the spatial organization of rural settlements. One is promoting the organic concentration of living, agricultural, and industrial spaces, the reasonable distribution of social intercourse, recreational, and services spaces, and the organic balance of living, production, and ecological spaces, so as to reasonably optimize the combination of internal spatial types in settlements. The other is forming a functional structure level of a "comprehensive village–featured village" and building spatial organization settlement modes connected by rural roads by relocating and adjusting the function of villages. These changes would require the destruction of underdeveloped villages, retaining normal villages, enlarging important villages, and constructing new villages.(4) As an ideal mode for optimizing rural settlements space based on life quality, the Rural Road-Oriented Development Model(RROD model) should be built at a rational scale for unit settlement and distance between settlements, leading to a fully functional RROD system with rational structure, auxiliary facility, and well-organized distribution.