可可西里东部活动断裂的地质特征

通过大比例尺地质勘测、路线观测、探槽揭露和综合分析,在青藏铁路可可西里段沿线鉴别出14条活动走滑断层,组成五道梁活动断裂、可可西里山北活动断裂和可可西里山南活动断裂,构成可可西里东部活动走滑断裂系。典型断层F_(16),F_(16-4),F_(17-2),F_(17-3),F_(18-4)切割最新地层的年龄分别为4500a,5.33万a,3700 a,1.53万a,6000 a,反映可可西里东部走滑断裂系在晚更新世晚期—全新世具有强烈活动;估算断层平均走滑运动速度分别为1.50 mm/a,0.39 mm/a,7.76 mm/a,6.76 mm/a,3.27mm/a。部分活动走滑断层发育砂质构造楔、地震陡坎和砂土液化现象,反映可可西里东部走滑断裂系具有强烈的地震活动性。断裂活动能够产生多种不同类型的地质灾害,对青藏公路、青藏铁路及永久性重大工程安全具有不良影响。     

可可西里——东昆仑活动构造带强震活动研究

青海昆仑山口西 8.1级地震发生在具有新生性特征的可可西里—东昆仑活动断裂带上。该断裂带在 190 0年以来的 10 0多年中经历了一个强震活动过程。在该强震活动过程中 ,地震沿整个可可西里—东昆仑活动构造带分段破裂 ,强震的破裂长度和震级之间大致满足对数线性的统计关系 ,强震活动呈现指数型时间分布的加速特征。这种强震加速活动特征可以用含多个震源体的孕震系统的强震成组活动模型给予解释。     

非线性混合模型的优越性及其在中国典型地震强活动区的应用

b值作为地震预报与危险性评价研究中的重要参数，受到广泛关注与讨论。通过非线性混合模型对中国地震目录数据库开展地震震级-频数分布拟合，并利用该方法计算得到的b值对地震活动进行分析评价。文章首先以中国26个地震带为研究区，收集1920—2019年的4.7级以上地震数据为完整地震目录，分别通过非线性混合模型与传统G-R模型进行拟合，并对比其效果；进一步以西藏地区为具体试验区，选择1920—2019年的地震目录数据，以10年为间隔，将非线性混合模型应用于西藏地区地震震级-频数模型的拟合。其次，利用矩震级与地震矩转换公式计算出非线性混合模型中的相关变量。最后，利用非线性混合模型对地震数据进行非线性回归分析。结果显示：当b值出现低值时，对应时间段前后有地震发生，b值较低时，发生的地震震级大、频次底；b值相对较高时，地震震级小、频次高。将非线性混合模型应用到中国及邻区完整地震数据中，能够对数据进行更加全面的分析，克服了传统模型方法对高震级和地震数据分析中的局限性，合理分析计算b值，进而增强对地震目录数据的分析和评价。     

滇西南地区主要活动断裂的b值空间分布特征

滇西南地区地处青藏高原东南边缘, 是我国大陆构造活动强烈且强震频发地区之一.通过分析b值与地壳应力分布状态的负相关关系, 采用最大似然法对该区进行b值空间扫描, 并结合区域地震构造背景以及活动断裂特征, 分析该区b值空间分布沿各断裂带的空间差异性, 反映区内不同断裂带以及同一断裂带不同现今应力积累水平与活动习性的差异, 从而反映出地震危险性的空间差异.研究结果表明: 滇西南地区b值处于0.3~1.2之间, 平均b值为0.576, δb值为0.046;区内断裂带与断裂带不同段落的b值分布极其不均匀, 澜沧江断裂南段、怒江断裂带等断裂处于研究区低b值区域, 目前处于相对较高的应力状态, 未来发生强震的可能性较大; 而哀牢山断裂带、龙陵-瑞丽断裂带的西段和东段等断裂处于研究区高b值区域, 目前处于相对较低的应力积累水平, 未来以小震活动为主.该研究方法和结论可供工程场地地震安全性评价和地震活动性中长期预测研究时参考.      

青藏高原可可西里地区三叠系巴彦喀拉山群低级-极低级变质作用

针对青藏高原可可西里的三叠系巴彦喀拉山群低级-极低级变质岩,利用X射线粉晶衍射分析确定了其矿物的共生组合、伊利石的结晶度Kubler指数(K)和b0值,并根据伊利石结晶度K和b0值对其区域变质作用的温压条件、分带、变质相进行了详细研究,得出了工作区5个不同岩性组合带的变质作用特征:昆仑山脉带属中压浅变质-近变质带,具葡萄石-绿纤石相和绿片岩相;不冻泉-库赛湖带属中压浅变质带,具绿片岩相;楚玛尔河带属中压近变质带,具葡萄石-绿纤石相;直达日旧带属中压浅变质带,具绿片岩相;五道梁带属中压近变质带,具葡萄石-绿纤石相.     

川西地区地震幕的数值模拟研究

川西地区位于我国南北地震带中段,地震活动非常强烈。本文通过区域活动构造格架、地震活动性及现今地应力场的研究,建立了该区弹塑性有限元模型。首先根据震源机制解、实测地应力及地形变测量等资料,对现今地应力场及力源机制进行了反演。然后通过不断调整模型的边界力量值及介质力学参数,模拟了1893年以来四个地震幕地震的迁移过程.并在此基础上,预测了未来地震幕的地震危险区。最后从断裂力学观点出发,建立了震级与地壳应变能密度和地震破裂带长度的近似关系,估计了川西未来地震幕地震危险区的最大震级。     

金沙江-红河断裂带温泉气体地球化学特征

金沙江-红河断裂带是青藏高原东南缘地热活动强烈、地震活动水平高、各种矿产丰富的深大断裂带。为了探索该断裂带的温泉气体地球化学时空变化特征,2015年3月～2019年7月,经过5次野外考察,采集了54个温泉逸出气体样品,对其化学组分和氦、氖与碳的同位素变化的测试结果表明:(1)金沙江-红河断裂带内温泉气体氦同位素比值(3He/4He)变化范围是0.04～0.62Ra(Ra=空气3He/4He=1.39×10-6),计算获得的幔源氦最大比例达到7.5%,揭示该断裂带内的地质流体主要来自于壳源,幔源氦有从北向南呈现增加的趋势。以CO2为主要组分的温泉,其δ13CCO2值变化范围是-23.6‰～-1.9‰(vs. PDB)。结合区域地质条件分析,这些CO2主要来自三叠系灰岩,所占比例范围是70.1%～89.7%,而幔源CO2的比例最高可以达到4.2%。(2)金沙江-红河断裂带温泉气体的氢气浓度和氦同位素在三处断裂交汇区都出现高峰值,分别是金沙江断裂与巴塘断裂、中甸断裂与红河断裂、红河断裂与小江断裂和奠边府断裂的交汇处。与区域地震活动性的对比分析结果表明,金沙江-红河断裂带内深部流体上涌相对强烈的区域,深部流体对区域地震活动性具有重要的控制作用。     

由土体级配近似确定土-水特征曲线的一种方法

利用毛细管理论推导了特定粒径颗粒堆积物中毛细水的上升高度,据此建立了土体级配与非饱和土土-水特征曲线的联系,构造了一个近似确定土-水特征曲线的新的物理经验模型。对大部分土而言,模型中引入的修正参数ouR与吸力水头h在对数坐标下呈现明显的线性相关性,可以使用ouln R?aln(h/m)?b进行拟合;利用非饱和土数据库UNSODA中406种土样的测量数据(包括干燥过程的土-水特征曲线和级配曲线)对拟合参数a、b进行了参数分析,统计了a、b的分布规律;计算显示,a、b与级配和孔隙比无关,可能受矿物组成影响。利用提出的模型进行预测时,可以用矿物组成类似的土样试验结果计算a、b值以确定修正参数ouR,在资料缺乏时也可使用统计得到的a、b平均值。该模型为间接确定土-水特征曲线提供了思路。     

青海狮子沟油田天然微地震活动及其地质意义

通过对柴达木盆地西部狮子沟地区一年多的微地震监测数据的分析处理, 发现该区微地震活动比较频繁, 总体走向北西, 且多集中在该区盆山过渡带北西走向的花土沟断裂北东侧2km深度附近。通过对地震与钻孔分布之间的关系和地震发生频次对数与震级线性关系的斜率b值的分析, 本文认为, 虽然油井注水等因素对研究区内微地震事件具有一定的诱发作用, 但大部分地震事件仍主要与断裂及其次级构造有关。      

浑善达克沙地沙丘剖面颜色变化的古气候意义

为研究中国沙漠东部广泛分布的风成沙-古土壤沉积序列的颜色变化与古气候之间的可能联系,以浑善达克沙地为研究区,测定了7个天然风成沙-古土壤沉积序列的颜色(L*a* b*)、有机碳、总氮和粒度。结果表明:L*(亮度)、a*(红度)、b*(黄度)值分别介于32.41~65.89,2.73~7.52和-1.68~17.16;L*、a*、b*值之间存在正相关关系,其中L*和b*之间的相关性最显著(R2=0.90),而L*和a*之间的相关性最低(R2=0.26);L*、a*、b*值在垂直方向上具有相同的变化趋势和特征,它们在风成沙层位处为高值,在灰色-黑色砂质古土壤层位处为低值,但L*值变化较大,a*和b*值变化较小。均值的非参数检验表明L*可指示风成沙-古土壤沉积序列的风成沙和古土壤层的变化,而a*在这类沉积序列上变化不敏感。影响L*的主要因素与有机质含量和成壤作用有关,它们都与东亚夏季风强弱变化关系密切,因此L*有明确的古气候意义;L*低值对有机质含量增加和成壤作用的加强具有指示作用,是东亚夏季风增强的信号。基于颜色参数L*可以很好地重建中国沙漠东部风成沙-古土壤沉积序列的古气候变化。     

An observational test of the stress accumulation model based on seismicity preceding the 1992 Landers, CA earthquake

We test the Bowman and King [Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001a, Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 (21), 4039–4042, Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001b. Stress transfer and seismicity changes before large earthquakes. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 333, 591–599] Stress Accumulation model by examining the evolution of seismicity rates prior to the 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The Stress Accumulation (SA) model was developed to explain observations of accelerating seismicity preceding large earthquakes. The model proposes that accelerating seismicity sequences result from the tectonic loading of large fault structures through aseismic slip in the elasto-plastic lower crust. This loading progressively increases the stress on smaller faults within a critical region around the main structure, thereby causing the observed acceleration of precursory activity. A secondary prediction of the SA model is that the precursory seismicity rates should increase first at the edges of the critical region, with the rates gradually rising over time at closer distances to the main fault. We test this prediction by examining year-long seismicity rates between 1960 and 2004, as a function of distance from the Landers rupture. To quantify the significance of trends in the seismicity rates, we auto-correlate the data, using a range of spatial and temporal lags. We find weak evidence for increased seismicity rates propagating towards the Landers rupture, but cannot conclusively distinguish these results from those obtained for a random earthquake catalog. However, we find a strong indication of periodicity in the rate fluctuations, as well as high correlation between activity 130–170 km from Landers and seismicity rates within 50 km of the Landers rupture temporally offset 1.5–2 years. The implications of this spatio–temporal correlation will be addressed in future studies.     

下沉式抗滑桩与普通抗滑桩内力分析比较

通过将一组下沉式模型实验数据按照比例扩大到实际大小,建立计算模型,再利用地基系数法计算出桩身上的最大剪应力和最大弯矩。然后把模型中的下沉式抗滑桩换成普通抗滑桩,重新计算。通过比较计算结果,可以发现下沉式抗滑桩所独有的优越性,同时就这种特殊抗滑桩的适用性提出一些看法。     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系

采用β统计对汶川地震前后鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区的地震活动率进行了空间扫描分析,并采用JiChen的震源破裂模型计算了汶川地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,以研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系。结果发现,鄂尔多斯块体西南缘弧形断裂束的南东段与南缘渭河盆地的地震活动率在汶川地震后提高显著,其他区域的地震活动率没有明显提高,库仑破裂应力计算得到两个区域的应力变化范围分别为0.005～0.02 MPa和0.001～0.01 MPa,表明汶川地震有可能触发了这两个区域的地震活动。鄂尔多斯块体东缘的山西断陷带处于库仑破裂应力计算的应力增加区,应力变化范围为0～0.012 MPa,2009年3月以来发生的4次ML4.5～5.2级强有感至微破坏地震有可能被汶川地震所延迟触发。b值、地震能量释放率与空间相关距离SCL等地震活动性参数随时间变化扫描结果显示,该区域可能处于不断趋近高应力累积的状态,其未来大震有可能提前发生。西缘地区为应力减小区,其目前的地震活动处于正常水平状态。     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history

The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time.     

Present activity and seismogenic potential of a low-angle normal fault system (Città di Castello,Italy): Constraints from surface geology,seismic reflection data and seismicity

We present new constraints on an active low-angle normal fault system in the Città di Castello–Sansepolcro basin (CSB) of the northern Apennines of Italy. New field data from the geological survey of the Carta Geologica d'Italia (CARG project) define the surface geometry of the normal fault system and lead to an interpretation of the CROP 03 deep-crust seismic reflection profile (Castiglion Fiorentino–Urbania segment), with particular attention paid to the geometry of the Plio-Quaternary extensional structures. Surface and sub-surface geological data are integrated with instrumental and historical seismicity in order to define the seismotectonics of the area.Low-angle east-dipping reflectors are the seismic expression of the well-known Altotiberina Fault (AF), a regional extensional detachment on which both east- and west-dipping high-angle faults, bounding the CSB, sole out. The AF breakaway zone is located ～ 10 km west of the CSB. Within the extensional allochthon, synthetic east-dipping planes prevail. Displacement along the AF is ～ 4.5 km, which agrees with the cumulative offset due to its synthetic splays. The evolution of the CSB has mainly been controlled by the east-dipping fault system, at least since Early Pleistocene time; this system is still active and responsible for the seismicity of the area. A low level of seismic activity was recorded instrumentally within the CSB, but several damaging earthquakes have occurred in historical times. The instrumental seismicity and the intensity data points of the largest historical earthquakes (5 events with maximum MCS intensity of IX to IX–X) allow us to propose two main seismogenic structures: the Monte Santa Maria Tiberina (Mmax = 5.9) and Città di Castello (Mmax up to 6.5) normal faults. Both are synthetic splays of the AF detachment, dipping to the NE at moderate (45–50°) to low (25–30°) angles and cutting the upper crust up to the surface. This study suggests that low-angle normal faults (at least with dips of 25–30°) may be seismogenic.     

Probabilistic seismic source inversion from regional landslide evidence

Landslides - In regions of infrequent but potentially damaging seismicity, modern earthquake inventories may be insufficient to provide inputs to seismic hazard analyses (i.e., fault locations and...     

美国北加州吉塞尔斯诱发地震与热汽田特征的关系

吉塞尔斯地震活动可能是因蒸汽开发引起的.水在一个承受很高构造剪应力和应变的大范围破裂体中汽化为蒸汽。 汽田地震震源机制解与区域构造应变场几乎一致,并且在该区域范围内汽田地震与别的构造地震不易区分。观测中注意到地震活动与注液历史无关,这表明孔隙水压力增高与注液不可能是吉塞尔斯诱发地震的成因。 相反,所有证据都表明诱发地震与孔隙水压力及温度降低有关。形成机制有两种最大可能:其一,是裂隙排水(汽)导致局部剪应力增加所致,其二,是由稳定滑动转化为不稳定滑动(粘滑)。没有其它记载的诱发地震机制与吉塞尔斯汽田条件相符。     

Seismicity and seismotectonics of the Gulf of Aqaba region

The historical seismicity of the last ten centuries and the instrumental data that occurred in the Gulf of Aqaba region during the period 1982–2008 are evaluated. It is found that 12 historical earthquakes have occurred with average recurrence periods 70–90 and 333–500 years for M?≥?6.0 and 7.0, respectively. Those with M?≤?6.5 appear to be incomplete and require further investigation. More than 98 % of the instrumental data has occurred in the form of swarms and sequences. The first have released about 32 % of the total energy and are most likely related to subsurface volcanic activities. Their epicentral distribution indicates that all regional faults of the gulf area are active in the present, but with clear concentration within the area bound by latitudes 28.2°–29.8° and longitudes 34.4°–35.2°. Regional strike-slip faults of the northern two basins appear to be as twice active as the normal, or more. An appreciable level of seismic hazard is envisaged as the “a” value is 6.0–6.2 while the “b” value shows a temporal variation, mostly in the range 0.8–1.05. More than 95 % of the seismic energy was released from earthquakes shallower than 22 km. This indicates a brittle upper crust and a ductile lower crust and upper mantle. Tectonic movements at depths?>?22 km appear to be aseismic. The epicentral distribution of the five swarms indicates that the lengths of the causative faults varied in the range 45–70 km. The maximum expected magnitude is Mw?=?6.8–7.2. This implies a seismic slip rate of about 0.54–0.8 Cm/year and some 20–30 % of aseismic tectonic movements. This and the sequence nature of the seismicity of this region result in a noticeable hazard reduction. Combining the seismicity data of the Gulf of Aqaba region with other geophysical, geological, tectonic, and environmental data, clearly indicate that the seismicity of this region is as old as the initiation of the gulf itself. No apparent southward or northward migration of activity is observed.