Regional variations in abrupt-change sequence of georesistivity and its application in earthquake prediction

Based on fracture mechanics, large amount of practically observed data is analyzed in this paper, and it is disclosed that seismically-anomalous earthquake resistivity sudden change sequence can be observed at the earth resistivity stations around the epicenter of a strong event. The maximum sudden change in the sequence tends to shift backward with the increase of epicentral distance, while it shifts forward with the increase of the magnitude of the earthquake. The maximum sudden change also expands from the epicenter to the peripheral areas. Therefore, the authors propose that it might be possible to predict the 3 key elements of a forthcoming earthquake by using the sudden change sequence, the frequency of the sudden change, the expansion velocity of the maximum sudden change and the time-distance product. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 176–185, 1993.     

Response spectrum to strong aftershocks of the Lancang-Gengma earthquake

Near-field records of two strong aftershocks with magnitudeM _S=6.7 andM _S=6.3 in the Lancang-Gengma earthquakes sequence, Yunnan Province, November 1988, are used to calculate the response spectrum. The instruments, site conditions and the methods for computing are also illustrated in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 338–343, 1991. This project is supported by The Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation, SSB and the West Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Test Field, Yunnan Seismological Bureau.     

Mechanical features of Shanxi Datong earthquake swarm sequence and their numerical simulation by using finite element method

The seismicity characteristics of the earthquake swarm occurred in Datong area in Shanxi Province during 1989–1993 period are studied in detail. The focal mechanisms and rupture processes of the principal earthquakes in it are also estimated in this paper. A mechanical model of fracture system of asymmetrical conjugate array is suggested from the view point of fracture propagation in order to simulate the mechanical features in the seismic source respect of the Datong swarm sequence. The computation results of displacement field, stress field and strain energy distribution from this model by using finite element method are presented. In addition, some recorded data of geothermal precursors before these three climaxes of the Datong earthquake swarm sequence are discussed mainly in this paper. Contribution No. 94A0093, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.     

Mechanical features of Shanxi Datong earthquake swarm sequence and their numerical siamulation by using finite element method

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华北大震序列的断裂系模式及破裂过程的联合反演

本文从断裂系扩展的角度,研究了华北邢台、渤海、海城和唐山地震序列的发生过程.通过对前震-主震-余震地震活动图象的剖析,我们发现,这些地震序列是由不同长度、不同几何分布的相关断裂系相互作用和扩展的结果.根据地震活动图象和断裂扩展理论,对每个地震序列提出了相应的断裂系模式,并用断裂有限单元法将震源机制、地震活动图象的分期变化和大地形变等观测资料相结合,进行联合反演,再次对断裂系模式的几何和力学参数进行了修正,从而得到各个地震序列破裂过程的最佳结果.同时我们还发现,一个走滑大地震序列临近结束时,地震活动图象的总体轮廓呈现Z形.这是由于断裂系内的拐折扩展分支相互作用和连通成为一体的结果,这种总体Z形的出现,可作为地震序列结束的标志.      

The application of the method of reconstruction a phase space with higher dimensions to the study of seismic processes and earthquake prediction

The method of reconstructing a phase space with higher dimensions can be applied to analysing the observaiton data for studying the dynamic behavior of seismic processes and earthquake prediction. It is found that seismic processes are chaotic. So earthquakes could be determinately predicted only within the predictable period. Here, some related problems (e.g. several primary parameters and the relations among them, the relation between the quality of used data and analytical results, the relation between a reductive process of the fractal dimensions and earthquake prediction and so on) are discussed. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 470–476, 1993. This study was sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation under Contract NO. 9000007.     

The model of double bounds of stochastic stress in seismic risk analysis of faults

In this paper, the major idea is: when seismic stress accumulates to a certain extent, a stick slip earthquake will occur on the fault plane. The seismic stress before and after the stick slip earthquake occurrence are both stochastic variables. According to this idea, the model of double bounds of stochastic stress is proposed, and also it is used to analyse the seismic risk of Xian Shui River Fault Zone in the coming 30 years, the result is similar to what the Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province has predicted. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 477–483, 1993.     

The features of multiple fractures associated with the great Haiyuan 8.5 magnitude earthquake of 1920

It is deduced on the basis of field investigation that the total length of the stratigraphic fault associated with the great Haiyuan 8.5 magnitude earthquake of 1920 was 225 km. This fault was formed by 6 secondary faults with different geometric parameters, which align regularly inen echelon arrangement. Each secondary fault can be divided into three segments with different characteristics of deformation where the middle segment was mainly of the horizontal strike—slip fault while another two segments the vertical deformation as shown by the features of reverse or normal faults. It is also shown by the data of vertical and horizontal displacements that the horizontal displacement approached a maximum at the middle segment for each secondary fault and gradually decreased toward and finally disappeared at both ends of each segment while in contrast the vertical displacement was minimum at the middle and became large at both ends of the segment. The feature of the multiple peaks appeared in the deformation as shown by the earthquake displacements along the whole fault. This feature indicates that the 6 secondary faults associated with the great Haiyuan earthquake were the horizontal interrupted planes (i.e., dislocation surface) which were independent on each other, and hence each dislocation surface may represent an independent secondary fracture event of the earthquake. We thus think that the 6 relatively independent secondary events which occurred successfully might result in the great 8.5 magnitude Haiyuan earthquake. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 21–31, 1991. This project is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

The effect of stress on pore pressure in rocks and the mechanism of water table anomaly before earthquakes

Triaxial compressive experiments of porous rock samples were carried out under various confining pressures and initial pore pressures without drainage; axial strain and pore pressure were observed versus differential stress. The results of such experiments show that pore pressure increases with increase of differential stress at low differential stress; pore pressure decreases with increase of differential stress at medium and high differential stress. Pore pressure also increases with large amplitude decrease of differential stress at high differential stress. Based on such experiments, it is suggested that water table anomaly before an earthquake reflects the change of differential stress in crustal rocks. The anomalous behavior of water tables in the epicentral and peripheral areas before the great Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976 are explained by such suggestion. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 88–95, 1991. This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. Professor Yongtai Che gave us much help in applying fund support and supplying earthquake case histories.     

Instantaneous spectrum analysis and its application in estimation of earthquake tendency

In this paper, first discussing briefly the instantaneous spectrum theory. Then, the instantnaeous spectra and Fourier spectra of three seismic sequences are calculated, and comparing them to explain the superior characteristics of instantaneous spectrum. Finally, the earthquake tendency of North China is estimated by using the instantaneous spectrum theory. The results show that not only the occurrence time of the coming large earthquake, but also its magnitude instantaneous can be estimated by using instantaneous spectrum of the seismic sequence. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa seismologica Sinica,15, 68–75, 1993.     

Laboratory investigation of borehole breakouts and Multi-step failure model

Based on our experiment of borehole breakouts with a group of sandstone samples described in this paper, a multi-step failure model of borehole breakouts are proposed to quantitatively explain the relationship between the section shape of borehole breakouts and the state of crustal stress. In this model the borehole spalling is not only related to the state of stress at a single point but also the state of stress on its neighboring area. The comparison between the experimental results of borehole breakouts and the calculation results shows a good agreement. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 493–499, 1992. This research is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation under Contract No. 9000025.     

澜沧,耿马震区断层启动系数与大震序列发震断裂研究

在分析构造应力场最大主应力方向和断层走向之间的夹角与断层错动关系的基础上，同时还考虑断层的几何特征，错动性质以及应力场状态等因素，提出以断怪启动系数Ｋ值来定量表征处在相同构造尖力环境中，不同走向的活动断裂的活动程度，并以１９８８年澜沧－耿马大震序鲁为例，计算了大震和强余震震源机制节面的断层启动系数，对震区主要活动断裂在近似情况下也计算了断层启动系数，以此在结合地震破裂带等资料对大震和强余震的发震断     

Distribution of seismic intensities of the November 6, 1988, Lancang-Gengma earthquakes and their surface ruptures in Yunnan Province, China

On November 6, 1988, two earthquakes with magnitude>7 occurred on the Lancang-Gengma fault zone in south-west China. The extensive destruction and loss of lives resulted mainly from widespread collapse of unreinforced masonry and mud brick structures; the maximum preliminary intensity of the Lancang earthquakes was IX on the Chinese scale, which is similar to the Modified Mercall scale, and the highest preliminary intensity of the Gengma earthquake was probably X. The surface manifestation of tectonic activity of the Lancang earthquake was the occurrence of the earthquake-related extensional ground cracks and small fault scarps in the epicentral region. The cracks with small fault scarps occurred mainly in four relatively continuous north-northwest-trending linear zones that ranged from a few hundred meters to 6 km in length. The area within which the cracks and small scarps occurred is 35 km long by 3 km wide. The maximum net throw and the dextral horizontal offset were 1.5m and 1.4m, respectively. Clear evidence of new surface faulting caused by the Gengma earthquake includes a series of relatively continuous north-northwest-trending linear ground crack zones and a 5 km long section of fault scarps. The total length of the surface rupture zones of the Gengma earthquakes is about 24 km, with 3.5m maximum net throw and 3m maximum right-lateral slip. Both earthquakes were associated with surface faulting showing a combination of normal and right lateral motion. The distribution of seismic intensities and surface rupture characteristics of these two earthquakes are discussed in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 344–353, 1991. The research project was performed out under the direction of Professors. Xingyuan Ma and Yuntai Chen, and the field investigation was performed with help of Kui Jiang and Junchang Zhang of the Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province. Here the authors express great appreciation.     

Deep mantle flow, global tectonic pattern and the background of seismic stress field in China

In this paper we investigate the sources of two kinds of forces to form the stress field in the lithosphere. These are the drag force caused by mantle flow and the force system along plate boundaries. The results show that both forces control the basic stress pattern in China and compressive stresses can fit with the stress patterns constructed by focal mechanisms,in-situ stress measurements in boreholes and that deduced from other geophysical and geological observation. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 295–306, 1991. This research is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Fundation.     

Experimental study on the effect of the critical temperature of water on the preparing and occurring of large earthquakes

The features of fracturing and dissolving of Yunnan marble in distilled water near the critical temperature have been studied experimentally. The results indicate that the mechanical parameters of the samples (fracture strength, Young’s Modulus, shear fracture energy and fracture toughness) drop with the temperature of the environment water, near the critical temperature (380°C), these parameters have sudden changes (drop), then keep stable values roughly. The contents of some chemical materials in the water, PH value and conductivity at every experiment temperature have been analysed and measured. At 380°C, there all exist sudden changes. According to the results, it is pointed out that the sudden changes are related to strong stress corrosion of water near its critical temperature to the rock and the exist and its migration of the water solution near the critical temperature in the crust have important significance to the earthquake source process, the formation cause of the low-focal depth earthquakes in the crust. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 156–163, 1992. This work was sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

The experimental research on b value of AE for the rock specimens with pre-existing crack or notch under uniaxial compression

A lot of researches onb value have been made in seismology. Since the 1960’s Mogi, Scholz and others have studied AE of rock specimens in laboratory and discovered that it is related to natural earthquakes. All former researchers used integral specimens to studyb value in the laboratory. However a major earthquake is usually related to a existing seismic-fault in that area. For this reason, a series of fracture experiments with rock and glass specimens having pre-existing crack or notch is performed in order to examine the effect of preexisting crack tob value. The experimental results show that theb value begins to decrease as soon as the initiation of the crack and finally drop to a very low value when the specimen breaks unstably. Based on these, a brief discussion on the possible mechanism ofb value change for natural earthquakes is given. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,9, 393–400, 1987. Projects sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Variations of the geomagnetic field and the geomagnetic effects of three earthquakes ( M s>5.0) in Jiangsu Province, China

Since 1979 the repeated observations and experiments of geomagnetic total intensity and vertical component have been carried out for ten years in the geomagetic network which is located in Jiangsu Province, China. Three earthquakes aboveM _s 5.0 occurred during the decade, and some seismomagnetic effects were observed. The observation results show that the anomalies of the vertical geomagnetic component can’t be observed untill some months before the earthquake (M _s>5.0) in this area. In this paper it is suggested that a densely distributed network for continuous observation of geomagnetic vertical component may catch seismomagnetic anomalies and thus improve earthquake prediction in the light of the geomagnetic measurements of the mid — or — low latitude locations. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 80–87, 1991. This study is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Recent advances in the research on seismo-electromagnetic emissions

The paper briefly reviews the recent advances and the main trend, as well as the major subjects for future study in the research on seismo-electromagnetic emissions. The preliminary results obtained show that the recently discovered electromagnetic emission phenomena prior to earthquake events are objective facts and may be prospective precursor applicable for short term earthquake prediction. Considering the complexity of the generation mechanisms, as well as the space coupling and the time variation processes of the seismo-electromagnetic emissions, we must deeply study the essential connection between the precursory emission phenomena and the seismogenic processes. Closely connect the field observations and theoretical research and try to comprehensively diagnose by correlating with other precursors. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 254–258, 1991.     

The experimental study of acoustic emission during creep of rocks

Under normal temperature, the creep experiments with complete samples of Gabbro and Marble rocks are made under uniaxial compression. It is found that at the instantaneous creeping stage, AE activities increase with loading; at the steady creeping stage, large AE signals may appear at lower background of AE action, andm—value which shows the relationship between AE amplitude and frequency keeps stable on the low value or decreases; at the accelerate creeping stage, AE activities increase andm—value decreases quickly or decreases again after recovery. These experimental results are related to the quality of the samples. In this paper, AE activities during three stages of creeping process are connected with the seismic patterns (for exampleb—value, foreshocks). Finally, it is pointed out the possibility that the foreshock—mainshock—aftershock earthquake sequence has been formed by the mechanism of creep fracture of crustal rocks. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 104–112, 1991. This subject is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Inversion of waveform from the data of six moderate strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland to seismic moment tensors and source mechanism

Based on Generalized Seismic Ray Theory (Helmberger, 1968), a new quickly linear inversion method from the data of seismic waveform to seismic moment tensor and source mechanism for domestic earthquake is studied in this paper. Six moderately strong earthquakes which occurred in Chinese mainland in the past few years are studied. The seismic source parameters of these earthquakes, seismic moment tensors, scalar seismic moments, fault plane solutions and source time functionsetc, are obtained. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 261–268, 1993.