Upper ocean heat content and atmospheric anomaly fields in the off-equatorial North Pacific related to ENSO

We have investigated interannual-scale variations of oceanic and atmospheric anomaly fields, such as upper ocean heat content (OHC), sea surface temperature (SST), latent heat flux (LHF) through the sea surface, sea level pressure (SLP) and wind stress curl (WSC) in the tropical Pacific and their relationships to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The results reported here show that the OHC and SST anomalies are almost in phase and lead LHF anomalies in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) region, which are preferable to the generation of subsequent atmospheric anomalies in the WTP. We also describe linear relationships between the amplitudes of these variables in the WTP. In addition, the results show that the both WSC and LHF anomalies are in phase with the temporal trend of OHC anomalies in the WTP, and suggest a combined effect of the local WSC and LHF anomaly in the WTP and ENSO-related, off-equatorial, westward propagating OHC anomaly to generate a large OHC anomaly in the WTP. In contrast to the WTP, OHC and SST anomalies are not in phase to the east of the WTP. The results also indicate that OHC anomalies in the WTP have a potential effect on the generation of an equatorial OHC anomaly via both a reflection of waves at the western boundary and atmospheric variations, which force the enhancement of western equatorial OHC anomaly. Therefore, the WTP is a key region where ENSO events are significantly modulated, and OHC anomalies in the WTP play an important role in the subsequent ENSO event.     

ENSO期间热带西太平洋势能的年际变化

利用1986/1987ENSO事件前后的深水CTD资料,计算了热带西太平洋(141°~165°E,10°N~10°S)相对于不同等压面的势能空间分布和时间变化。结果表明,ENSO期间热带西太平洋单位面积上水柱的势能明显减小,而热带西太平洋势能的经向变化明显大于纬向变化。经向变化的特征是赤道外势能大于赤道上的势能。势能最大值位于4°N和4°S,而最大年际变化则发生于7°N,远大于赤道附近。最后,还分析了热带西太平洋势能分布的地域性特征,并指出了这些特征与海洋水文特征的联系。     

Thermohaline intrusions in the thermocline of the western tropical Pacific Ocean

The existing high-resolution hydrographic data in the western tropical Pacilit; Ocean are used to explore the spatial distribution and primary characteristics of thermohaline intrusions in the thermocline. Statistics show that the vertical scales of intrusions are 20-40 m in the upper thermocline （22.0-26.0δ0） and 40-80 m in the lower thermocline （26.0-27.2δ0）. In the upper thermocline, the most intensive intrusions exist at the equatorial front （EF） where north/sonth Pacilic water masses converge, anti Ihe westward spreading of the north Pacilic tropical waler （NPTW） in the Philippines Sea also produces patches of intrusions surrounding its high-salinity tongue. In the lower thermocline, intrusions are also strong at the tropical front （TF） which is the boundary between the north Pacilic subtropical/tropical waters. At the bottom of the thermocline （at about 27.0δ0）, intrusions mainly exist near the western boundary, which are produced by intermediate water convergence through the advection of subthermocline western boundary Ilows. Most strikingly a ＂C＂-shape distribution of intrusions at around 26.4δ0 is revealed, covering the vicinity of the EF the TE and the Mindanao Current （MC）, i.e., tile western boundary pathway ol the norlh Pacilic subtrnpical cell （STC）. Synoptic section analysis reveals that intrusions are more prominent on the warm/sally flank ot the fronts, implying more cross-front tongues of cold/fresh water. Among the intrusions, those at the EF are of best lateral coherence which implies a unique driving mechanism involving near-inertial velocity perturbations near the equator.     

热带太平洋海面对EL97／98事件的响应及ENSO预测

本文分析了1996－1998年逐月太平洋海面距平资料及热带太平洋海面赤道槽、脊及上层海水体积变化资料，清楚地看到20世纪最强的一次EL97／98事件，不仅基本特征明显，而且太平洋海面变化与其有密切的响应关系，受此启发，作者依据1975－2000年间赤道槽、脊、逆流槽及热带太平洋上层海水体积变化的历史资料，经年周期滑动平均数据处理和采用基于均生函数的正交化筛选建模方法，建立了各单预测因子周期外延的ENSO预测模式。结果表明，本预测模式除把单预测因子序列的历史变化趋势反映和预测出来，还揭示了历史上的El Nino事件发生了经滑动平均后的赤道脊或热带太平洋上层海水体积的峰值附近，结束于谷底附近，La Nina则出现在滑动平均后的赤道脊谷底上升至均值期间的一般规律性。根据各单预测因子周期外延曲线的峰、谷变化，预测下一次El Nino事件将于2001年下半年至2002年上半年期间形成。     

热带太平洋要素场与ENSO的非线性相关特征分析

为进一步揭示热带太平洋海气系统要素场之间的非线性相关特征,基于Hadley提供的海温场资料和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)提供的海面风场和海面气压场资料,采用经验正交(EOF)分解和非线性典型相关分析法(NLCCA),分析了海温、海面风场和海面气压场三要素场之间的非线性相关性。结果表明,西太平洋暖池的异常暖状态和热带太平洋的西风异常与ENSO的非线性之间存在着密切关联。进一步引入奇异值分解方法(SVD),将其与NLCCA方法相结合,分析了热带太平洋海温场与海面风场、海面气压场耦合变化的关键影响区及其异性相关的分布特征。分析表明,热带太平洋西风异常和西太副高与ENSO循环之间存在较好的相关性。具体表现在:海温在中东太平洋地区出现异常增暖时,有助于加强东南亚地区的对流发展,促使东南亚地区季风的提前爆发;而东北太平洋副热带高压强度变化对北太平洋中部Nam ias海区海温距平的东西向振荡具有重要作用。研究为ENSO循环的非线性特性提供了有力的证明,也为ENSO的预测研究奠定了相关基础。     

1980～1999年热带太平洋次表层盐度年际变化同化数据分析

通过统计方法利用一套海洋同化数据分析了热带太平洋次表层的盐度变化特征.结果表明次表层盐度的年际变化与ENSO相关,且次表层盐度信号区域呈东西方向“跷跷板”的分布.对影响这些次表层的盐度信号区域平均的纬向平流、经向平流、垂直运动和淡水通量异常等因素进行了分析,并且与影响表层盐度年际变化模态的影响因素差异进行了比较,结果表明,纬向平流的异常对表层盐度的异常变化影响较大,而对次表层盐度异常有较大影响的是海水的垂直运动异常.     

Effects of interannual salinity variability on the dynamic height in the western equatorial Pacific as diagnosed by Argo

In this paper, interannual variations of the ocean dynamic height over the tropical Pacific are diagnosed using three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields from Argo profiles, with a focus on the...     

热带西太平洋海域上层海洋热含量的CSEOF分析

基于月平均Argo温、盐度剖面、纬向风和Ni o3.4指数等资料,利用循环平稳经验正交函数(CSEOF)分解法、最大熵谱分析和相关分析等方法,研究了热带西太平洋海域上层(0—700m)海洋热含量的时空变化特征,并探讨了其年际变化的可能原因。结果表明,热带西太平洋海域上层海洋热含量距平场具有显著的东-西向反位相振荡,且这种振荡除了具有较明显的季节变化外,还存在着较强的准2a振荡。此外,热含量距平场还存在着负-正-负的三极式经向模态,该模态除了具有明显的季节变化外,还存在着显著的准4a振荡。进一步分析表明,热含量的准2a振荡与ENSO事件的发生有着非常密切的联系,并对赤道西太平洋纬向风异常有1—2月的滞后响应。     

热带太平洋西部及赤道暖水区的初级生产力

描述了对热带太平洋西部(1991年11月WOCE调查)及赤道暖水区(1992年11月至1993年2月的TOGA-COARE调查)的叶绿素a分布和初级生产力(C),及其与理化环境的关系.西部海域叶绿素a平均总量达19.79mg/m2,暖水区为2.168mg/m2;暖水区的潜在初级生产量高于西部海域,量值分别为228mg/(m2·d)和171mg/(m2·d),次表层最大值成为调查海域水体叶绿素a分布的一个明显特点.叶绿素a总量平面分布趋向表明:高生物量主要位于巴士海峡邻近、菲律宾以及伊里安岛的近岸站位,此外,在2°～4°N之间的观测区.低生物量主要位于外洋海域.生物量的分布与不同海域的物理过程变化有关,而海水涌升可能是导致温度、盐度和营养盐分布产生变化,并因而导致高生物量的一个重要的物理过程.     

Primary productivity in the western tropical Pacific and equatorial warm waters

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Empirical orthogonal function analysis of short time series of sectional data in the tropical western Pacific

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热带西太平洋海表盐度的变化特征及其对淡水通量的响应

基于1980~2015年的全球简单海洋资料同化分析系统(SODA)、全球海气通量(OAFlux)和全球降水气候学计划(GPCP)等海洋、大气观测再分析资料,采用线性拟合、经验正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析和波谱分析等数理统计方法,分析了热带西太平洋海表盐度(SSS)和淡水通量时空变化特征及其关系.结果表明,SSS与淡水通量的气候态及长期线性变化趋势有较好的空间对应关系,两者均有多种时间尺度的EOF模态,其年代际变化模态有较好的正相关关系,并与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)有密切的滞后相关.分析表明,PDO可能通过影响Walker环流的变化来影响热带西太平洋的淡水通量分布,从而影响SSS的时空格局.     

Spatial and temporal variability of heat content above the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract-Heat content of the upper layer above the 20℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific Ocean isestimated by using the sea temperature data set with a resolution 2°latitude×5°longitude (1980～1993)for the water depths (every 10 m) from 0 m to 400 m, and its temporal and spatial variabilities are an-alyzed. (1) The temporal variability indicates that the total heat in the upper layer of the equatorial Pa-cific Ocean is charcterized by the interannual variability. The time series of the equatorial heat anomaly5 months lead that of the El Nino index at the best positive lag correlation between the two, and theformer 13 months lag behind the latter at their best negative lag correlation. Therefore the equatorialheat content can be used as a better predictor than the El Nino index for a warm or cold event. In addi-tion, it is also found that less heat anomaly in the equator corresponds to the stronger warm events inthe period (1980～1993) and much more heat was accumulated in the 4 years including 1992/1     

2019年11月西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数异常偏多的成因分析

基于1979-2019年NCEP-DOE再分析资料、中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集和HadISST全球海温资料等,研究了2019年11月西北太平洋TC生成频数异常偏多的可能原因.结果表明:2019年11月西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)强度偏强、脊线偏北,其南侧偏东气流与越赤道气流交汇形成的西北太平洋热带...     

春季北大西洋涛动与夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数关系的年代际变化

The present study reveals the fact that the relationship between the spring(April–May) North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the following summer(June–September) tropical cyclone(TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific(WNP) during the period of 1950–2018 was not stationary. It is shown that the relationship between the two has experienced a pronounced interdecadal shift, being weak and insignificant before yet strong and statistically significant after the early 1980 s. Next we compare the spring NAO associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies, and atmospheric circulation processes between the two subperiods of 1954–1976 and 1996–2018, so as to illucidate the possible mechanism for this interdecadal variation in the NAO-TC connection. During the latter epoch, when the spring NAO was positive,enhanced low-level vorticity, reduced vertical zonal wind shear, intensified vertical velocity and increased middle-level relative humidity were present over the WNP in the summer, which is conducive to the genesis of WNP TCs. When the spring NAO is negative, the dynamic and thermodynamic factors are disadvantageous for the summertime TC formation and development over the WNP. The results of further analysis indicate that the persistence of North Atlantic tri-pole SST anomalies from spring to the subsequent summer induced by the spring NAO plays a fundamental role in the linkage between the spring NAO and summer atmospheric circulation.During the period of 1996–2018, a remarkable eastward propagating wave-train occurred across the northern Eurasian continent, forced by the anomalous SST tri-pole in the North Atlantic. The East Asian jet flow became greatly intensified, and the deep convection in the tropics was further enhanced via the changes of the local Hadley circulation, corresponding to a positive spring NAO. During the former epoch, the spring NAO-induced tri-pole SST anomalies in the North Atlantic were non-existent, and the related atmospheric circulation anomalies were extremely weak, thereby leading to the linkage between spring NAO and WNP TC genesis frequency in the following summer being insignificant.     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数及生成位置的气候变化研究进展

自20世纪70年代末期以来,西北太平洋的热带气旋在全球变暖的背景下主要发生了两种宏观的气候变化：一个是热带气旋生成频数呈现年代际减少,尤其是在东南部海域;另一个则是其生成与活动位置等总体特征有向西北偏移的趋势。本文对这两个方面的研究进展进行了概述。近些年的研究表明,垂直风切变的增强可能是夏秋季热带气旋频数减少的最主要原因,这与太平洋-印度洋海面温度变化导致的大尺度环境变化有密切联系。同样有研究认为北大西洋海面温度的多年代际振荡对近期西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的减少也非常重要。但西北太平洋西部强热带气旋的频数呈现出增加的趋势,这可能与东亚近海海面温度的显著升高有关,尽管这种变化是否可信仍有争议。近20年来,西北太平洋热带气旋活动普遍出现西北移倾向,包括生成位置和路径位置,这种变化可能受到了ENSO变异及20世纪90年代末期太平洋气候突变的调控。同时,热带环流的极向扩张又导致了热带气旋的有利环境向北扩张,因此西北太平洋热带气旋活动也出现极向迁移的趋势。     

基于Argo浮标和历史资料的热带西太平洋次表层与中层水年代变化分析

利用20世纪80年代和90年代WOD01(World Ocean Database2001)中的CTD温盐剖面资料和2000年以后Argo资料,对比分析了热带西太平洋次表层和中层水团分布的年代变化特征。分析结果表明,在这两个时期,起源于南北太平洋中高纬度海域的各次表层水和中层水,在热带西太平洋分布特征和交织在一起的总体态势基本一致,水团性质的年代变化不大。这与上述两个时段全球海洋-大气耦合系统趋于正常状态相吻合。通过辨识和跟踪表征次表层水性质的盐度极大值,发现南太平洋热带水沿西边界向北扩散程度有所加大,由前一时期的5°N,进一步扩散到6°~7°N;北太平洋热带水在西边界附近的向南扩散程度有所削弱,在2002-2005年间只向南扩散到4°N,而前一个时期则可向南扩散到2°N。通过辨识表征中层水性质的盐度极小值,南极中层水在西边界附近向北扩散程度有所加大,在2002-2005年到达13°N附近,而前一个时期只到达11°N;同期,北太平洋中层水在西边界附近的向南扩散程度有所削弱。上述年代变化与全球水循环强度的变化之间有何关系有待进一步研究。     

ENSO循环相联系的北太平洋低纬度异常西边界流

用SODA海洋同化和NCEP大气再分析资料,分析了热带太平洋次表层海温异常主要模态与北太平洋低纬度西边界流海域上层海洋环流和亚洲-北太平洋地区大气垂直和水平流场变化之间的关系,得到以下结果:（1） 在热带太平洋海洋次表层ENSO事件具有两种模态,二者组合构成ENSO循环。第一模态为ENSO成熟期,主要出现在冬季,第二模态为ENSO过渡期,主要出现夏季。（2） ENSO循环对北太平洋低纬度西边界流区上层海洋环流有重要影响。在El Niño发展期或La Niña 衰退期,该区出现气旋性异常环流,北赤道流（NEC）加强,NEC分叉位置北移,棉兰老海流（MC）加大,菲律宾以东黑潮（KC）减小,北赤道逆流（NECC）最强。在El Niño（La Niña）成熟期,该区气旋性（反气旋性）异常环流达最强,NEC最强（最弱）,NEC分叉位置最北（最南）,MC最大（最小）,KC最小（最大）,NECC减弱（加强）。在El Niño衰退期或La Niña发展期与El Niño发展期相反,该区出现反气旋性异常环流,由此导致相应流系异常发生反位相变化。（3） ENSO循环对北太平洋低纬度西边界流海域上层海洋环流的影响是通过ENSO事件期间热带太平洋热力状况异常改变上空大气环流来实现的。ENSO事件首先造成热带太平洋海洋热力状况异常,导致其上空对流活动异常,后者直接或间接通过“大气桥”能量传输引起相关地区大气环流场的变化,致使海面风应力场异常,进而强迫上层海洋环流场的相应变化。文章最后还分析了ENSO事件期间菲律宾附近异常反气旋或异常气旋性风场的产生和持续原因,讨论了北太平洋低纬度西边界流海域海气相互作用在ENSO循环中的贡献。     

晚春北极涛动对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的影响

利用美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料以及中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集,本文探讨了1950–2018年期间晚春(5月)北极涛动(AO)与随后夏季(6–9月)西北太平洋上空热带气旋生成频数的关系.研究表明,晚春AO对夏季西北太平洋TC生成有明显的预报指示意义,二者...     

The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being -0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m /s over the WNP and 4.6 m /s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii(R15,R16) of the 15.4 m /s winds them and the 25.7 m /s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.