初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响

使用球坐标下1.5 层约化重力浅水模式模拟海洋风生双环流, 结果显示双环流射流存在拉伸模态和收缩模态间的年际变化。以双环流从拉伸模态向收缩模态的转变过程为背景场, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法, 考察初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响, 得到两类初始误差: 全局CNOP型和局部CNOP(LCNOP)型, 两类初始误差对双环流变异的影响几乎相反。通过考察误差发展, 发现在射流从拉伸模态向收缩模态转变过程中, CNOP 型初始误差使射流弯曲程度变大, 并在预报时刻导致涡脱落; 而LCNOP 型初始误差则使射流弯曲程度变小。相比LCNOP, CNOP 型初始误差引起更大预报误差, 导致双环流变异的预报技巧下降更多。两类误差得到较大发展的区域可能存在正压不稳定, 使误差能够不断从背景场吸收能量进而得到快速发展。给出了两类使双环流变异预报技巧下降最大的初始误差, 在实际的数值预报中减少这两种类型的误差, 将有助于提高双环流变异的预报技巧。     

Bifurcation structure of a wind-driven shallow water model with layer-outcropping

The steady state bifurcation structure of the double-gyre wind-driven ocean circulation is examined in a shallow water model where the upper layer is allowed to outcrop at the sea surface. In addition to the classical jet-up and jet-down multiple equilibria, we find a new regime in which one of the equilibrium solutions has a large outcropping region in the subpolar gyre. Time dependent simulations show that the outcropping solution equilibrates to a stable periodic orbit with a period of 8 months. Co-existing with the periodic solution is a stable steady state solution without outcropping.A numerical scheme that has the unique advantage of being differentiable while still allowing layers to outcrop at the sea surface is used for the analysis. In contrast, standard schemes for solving layered models with outcropping are non-differentiable and have an ill-defined Jacobian making them unsuitable for solution using Newton’s method. As such, our new scheme expands the applicability of numerical bifurcation techniques to an important class of ocean models whose bifurcation structure had hitherto remained unexplored.     

Identification of the sensitive area for targeted observation to improve vertical thermal structure prediction in summer in the Yellow Sea

The sensitive area of targeted observations for short-term(7 d) prediction of vertical thermal structure(VTS) in summer in the Yellow Sea was investigated. We applied the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP)method and an adjoint-free algorithm with the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS). We used vertical integration of CNOP-type temperature errors to locate the sensitive areas, where reduction of initial errors is expected to yield the greatest improvement in VTS prediction for the selected verification area. The identified sensitive areas were northeast-southwest orientated northeast to the verification area, which were possibly related to the southwestward background currents. Then, we performed a series of sensitivity experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the identified sensitive areas. Results show that initial errors in the identified sensitive areas had the greatest negative effect on VTS prediction in the verification area compared to errors in other areas(e.g., the verification area and areas to its east and northeast). Moreover, removal of initial errors through deploying simulated observations in the identified sensitive areas led to more refined prediction than correction of initial conditions in the verification area itself. Our results suggest that implementation of targeted observation in the CNOP-based sensitive areas is an effective method to improve short-term prediction of VTS in summer in the Yellow Sea.     

CNOP-P-based parameter sensitivity for double-gyre variation in ROMS with simulated annealing algorithm

Reducing the error of sensitive parameters by studying the parameters sensitivity can reduce the uncertainty of the model,while simulating double-gyre variation in Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P)is an effective method of studying the parameters sensitivity,which represents a type of parameter error with maximum nonlinear development at the prediction time.Intelligent algorithms have been widely applied to solving Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP).In the paper,we proposed an improved simulated annealing(SA)algorithm to solve CNOP-P to get the optimal parameters error,studied the sensitivity of the single parameter and the combination of multiple parameters and verified the effect of reducing the error of sensitive parameters on reducing the uncertainty of model simulation.Specifically,we firstly found the non-period oscillation of kinetic energy time series of double gyre variation,then extracted two transition periods,which are respectively from high energy to low energy and from low energy to high energy.For every transition period,three parameters,respectively wind amplitude(WD),viscosity coefficient(VC)and linear bottom drag coefficient(RDRG),were studied by CNOP-P solved with SA algorithm.Finally,for sensitive parameters,their effect on model simulation is verified.Experiments results showed that the sensitivity order is WD>VC>>RDRG,the effect of the combination of multiple sensitive parameters is greater than that of single parameter superposition and the reduction of error of sensitive parameters can effectively reduce model prediction error which confirmed the importance of sensitive parameters analysis.     

日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲的最优前期征兆及其发展机制

基于正压出入流模式, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法研究初始异常的位置与模态对日本南部黑潮路径变异的影响。以模式模拟出的黑潮平直路径的平衡态作为参考态, 计算CNOP, 考察该扰动随时间的发展, 并与随机扰动的发展进行对比。结果表明, CNOP 能够导致黑潮弯曲路径发生, 随机扰动则不能。因此, CNOP 可以作为导致日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲的一种最优前期征兆。通过分析CNOP 和随机扰动的发展过程, 可以得出: (1) CNOP 使黑潮发展成弯曲路径的过程是一个气旋涡向下游传播并增长的过程。(2) 气旋涡的向东传播都是非线性项的作用, 也就是涡度平流造成的。(3) CNOP和随机扰动发展过程中所产生的气旋涡均会传播到下游区域, 但是CNOP 产生的气旋涡能够增强, 最终导致弯曲路径发生, 而随机扰动产生的气旋涡则会减弱, 并不能导致弯曲路径发生。分析发现, 在CNOP 实验中, 非线性作用使气旋涡增大; 但在随机扰动实验中, 非线性作用使气旋涡减弱, 所以非线性作用对日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲有重要影响。(4) 底摩擦效应对日本南部黑潮路径变异影响较小。本文揭示的黑潮路径发生弯曲的最优前期征兆及其非线性发展机制, 对提高黑潮路径变异的预报技巧具有重要意义。     

北部湾东北部潮锋的观测与分析

近海潮锋的分布与温度、盐度乃至海洋生产力的分布都存在紧密联系。基于北部湾东北部的实测数据,对比分析2016—2017年北部湾东北部海域的温度、盐度、密度等分布,并利用ROMS(Regional Ocean Model System)正压与斜压模式,计算Simpson-Hunter (S-H)参数,阐述了潮锋出现位置及其与温度、盐度和密度的关系。结果表明:北部湾东北部潮锋发生的主要区域位于雷州半岛附近,潮混合区温盐密混合较为均匀。利用ROMS模式计算所得的最大垂直平均流速来计算S-H参数,认为潮锋出现位置位于S-H参数值为2处,与实测结果较为一致,且认为正压模式比斜压模式更能准确模拟潮混合区。另外,分析观测数据发现,温度、盐度、密度锋终年存在。近岸处密度锋主要受盐度锋控制,而潮混合产生的盐度锋又容易被径流掩盖。风力较大时三种锋都易向水深更深处推进,潮混合区终年垂向混合较好。     

A comparison of two formulations of barotropic–baroclinic splitting for layered models of ocean circulation

In numerical models of ocean circulation, it is widespread practice to split the fast and slow motions into barotropic and baroclinic subsystems, respectively. In the case of the baroclinic equations, the dependent variables can either be (1) slowly-varying baroclinic quantities, obtained from splitting the original flow variables into barotropic and baroclinic components, or (2) the original unsplit variables, which can vary on both the fast and slow time scales. In the second case, the variables in each layer are adjusted after each (long) baroclinic time step to ensure compatibility with the results produced from the barotropic equations. The second approach can be applied to the layer thickness equation to ensure exact conservation of mass within each layer. In the case of the momentum equations, the second approach amounts to replacing unresolved fast portions of Coriolis and pressure forcing with time averages of well-resolved forcing from the barotropic system. In this study, both approaches for the momentum equations are evaluated, in several test problems, by comparing to analytical solutions or to solutions computed with an unsplit code that uses short time steps. The two methods give very similar results in some simple problems for which analytical solutions are known. However, in some eddying double-gyre simulations, the formulation with unsplit variables requires a significant reduction in the baroclinic time step in order to avoid numerical difficulties that include grid noise and inaccurate representation of the flow field. In contrast, the formulation with split variables does not display such difficulties, and in those same examples it can be used with zero explicit horizontal viscosity. All of these computations employ a two-level time-stepping method that was previously developed by the author.     

黄海冷水团的环流结构

运用定性分析和数值模拟，对黄海冷水团的环流结构进行了探讨，结果表明黄海冷水团的垂向环流结构为双环结构：跃层以上区为中心上升，边缘下降的弱环流;跃层以下区为中心下降，边缘上升的强环流；在冷水团的中心区域，流动很弱，且无穿越温跃层的垂向流动。同时也对以往有关黄海冷水团垂向环流结构的工作进行了讨论。     

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part II - Performance and application to the California Current System

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation systems have been systematically applied to the mesoscale circulation environment of the California Current to demonstrate the performance and practical utility of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In particular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D-Var, namely: the primal formulation of the incremental strong constraint approach; the dual formulation “physical-space statistical analysis system”; and the dual formulation indirect representer approach. In agreement with theoretical considerations all three approaches converge to the same ocean circulation estimate when using the same observations and prior information. However, the rate of convergence of the dual formulation was found to be inferior to that of the primal formulation. Other aspects of the 4D-Var performance that relate to the use of multiple outer-loops, preconditioning, and the weak constraint are also explored. A systematic evaluation of the impact of the various components of the 4D-Var control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing and open boundary conditions) is also presented. It is shown that correcting for uncertainties in the model initial conditions exerts the largest influence on the ability of the model to fit the available observations. Various important diagnostics of 4D-Var are also examined, including estimates of the posterior error, the information content of the observation array, and innovation-based consistency checks on the prior error assumptions. Using these diagnostic tools, we find that more than 90% of the observations assimilated into the model provide redundant information. This is a symptom of the large percentage of satellite data that are used and to some extent the nature of the data processing employed. This is the second in a series of three papers describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.     

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part I - System overview and formulation

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is one of the few community ocean general circulation models for which a 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) capability has been developed. The ROMS 4D-Var capability is unique in that three variants of 4D-Var are supported: a primal formulation of incremental strong constraint 4D-Var (I4D-Var), a dual formulation based on a physical-space statistical analysis system (4D-PSAS), and a dual formulation representer-based variant of 4D-Var (R4D-Var). In each case, ROMS is used in conjunction with available observations to identify a best estimate of the ocean circulation based on a set of a priori hypotheses about errors in the initial conditions, boundary conditions, surface forcing, and errors in the model in the case of 4D-PSAS and R4D-Var. In the primal formulation of I4D-Var the search for the best circulation estimate is performed in the full space of the model control vector, while for the dual formulations of 4D-PSAS and R4D-Var only the sub-space of linear functions of the model state vector spanned by the observations (i.e. the dual space) is searched. In oceanographic applications, the number of observations is typically much less than the dimension of the model control vector, so there are clear advantages to limiting the search to the space spanned by the observations. In the case of 4D-PSAS and R4D-Var, the strong constraint assumption (i.e. that the model is error free) can be relaxed leading to the so-called weak constraint formulation. This paper describes the three aforementioned variants of 4D-Var as they are implemented in ROMS. Critical components that are common to each approach are conjugate gradient descent, preconditioning, and error covariance models, which are also described. Finally, several powerful 4D-Var diagnostic tools are discussed, namely computation of posterior errors, eigenvector analysis of the posterior error covariance, observation impact, and observation sensitivity.     

西南黄海夏季环流数值模拟研究

本文采用Regional Ocean Modeling System（ROMS）来研究西南黄海夏季环流,模拟的结果与浮标和锚定观测符合的很好。表层的海流流向东北,离岸一侧的流速大于近岸的流速,表层以下为约沿着25米等深线的气旋式流动。我们通过一系列过程导向实验研究海表风应力和底层温度锋面对环流的影响,结果表明,东南风驱动了表层东北向流动,底层温度锋面驱动了表层以下气旋式流动。底层温度锋面形成于近岸垂向混合充分水体和离岸层化水体之间。     

Alternating zonal flows in a two-layer wind-driven ocean

Alternating zonal flows in an idealized wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation have been investigated using a two-layer shallow-water eddy-permitting numerical model. While the alternating zonal flows are found almost everywhere in the time-mean zonal velocity field, their meridional scales differ from region to region. In the subpolar western boundary region, where the energetic eddy activity induces quasi two-dimensional turbulence, the alternating zonal flows are generated by the inverse energy cascade and its arrest by Rossby waves, and the meridional scale of the flows corresponds well to the Rhines scale. In the eastern part of the basin, where barotropic basin modes are dominant, the zonal structure is formed through the nonlinear effect of the basin modes and is wider than the Rhines scale. Both effects are likely to form zonal structure between the two regions. These results show that Rossby basin modes become an important factor in the formation of alternating zonal flows in a closed basin in addition to the arrest of the inverse energy cascade by Rossby waves. The wind-driven general circulation associated with eddy activities plays an essential role in determining which mechanism of the alternating zonal flows is possible in each region.     

夏季黄河入海径流对黄河口及附近海域环流影响的数值研究

基于区域海洋模式ROMS,建立了一个三维非线性斜压浅海模式,考虑了包括径流、风场、海面热交换以及黄渤海环流等因素,研究了夏季8月份黄河入海径流量对黄河口及附近海域环流结构的影响。数值实验较好地佐证了黄河冲淡水的"北偏"现象,并很好的体现了冲淡水对河口附近海域环流结构的影响。数值研究表明:黄河入海径流量对河口附近海域环流结构有显著影响,径流越大冲淡水向北-西北方向偏转越明显,同时流轴中心余流流速也显著增大;莱州湾顺时针环流受黄河入海径流影响显著,径流量越大越不利于该环流的发育和维持,而径流量越小环流越稳定;径流量越大导致河口附近海域表层余流加大,余流垂向梯度得到加强,底部补偿流增强,河口垂向环流越明显。     

渤海冬季三维环流数值模拟

基于冯士笮所给出的一种浅海环流模型，采用数值方法，对渤海冬季进行环流的数值模拟，给出了冬季三维风生环流和正压环流（含潮余流）。分析了潮致Ｌａｇｒａｎｇｅ余流对冬季环流的贡献及黄海暖流余脉对渤海冬季环流的影响。最后对风生环流和正压环流的特征进行了分析和讨论。     

The Circulation in the Upper and Intermediate Layers of the South China Sea

The circulation in the basin of the South China Sea is reproduced using a four-layer numerical model. Current fields in the second (upper) and third (intermediate) layers are emphasized. Three eddies coexist in the upper layer in summer. The circulation pattern in this layer is similar to that in the first (surface) layer. In winter, a cyclonic circulation occupies the entire basin of the South China Sea in the upper layer as in the surface layer. On the other hand, the circulation pattern in the intermediate layer is fairly different from that in upper two layers especially in winter. A double-gyre pattern appears in the intermediate layer during winter. The pattern is caused by the propagation of the baroclinic Rossby wave of the second mode. This wave is excited at onset of the winter monsoon wind. Such circulation pattern well explains the observed salinity distribution in the intermediate layer. Although the double-gyre pattern in the intermediate layer is revealed even in summer in this model, it is restricted in the western part of the basin. Besides, its current speed is small compared to that in winter.     

基于集合同化方法的南海北部最优观测实验

根据集合同化理论及最优观测方法,应用基于ROMS模式的南海北部区域模拟结果作为集合样本,对该区域的最优观测廓线以及最优观测航次进行了评估和选择.最优观测方法是一种不需要直接同化观测,而通过最小化分析场误差方差理论值来选择最优观测点的方法.最优观测方法根据卡曼滤波理论中协方差矩阵的更新方程,使用一组模式或观测得到的历史样...     

2000—2015年夏秋季孟加拉湾湾口区涡流相互作用能量学特征

文章主要使用全球简单海洋资料同化分析系统(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, SODA)产出的海洋再分析数据产品和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)发布的风场资料, 通过能量学方法分析了2000—2015年夏季至秋季(6—11月)孟加拉湾涡-流相互作用特征在不同印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)事件发生年的表现。结果表明, 在IOD负位相年更强的西南季风背景下, 涡动能和涡势能的量值均较大, 海洋不稳定过程更多地将平均流场的能量输向涡旋场, IOD正位相年反之。另外, 研究发现孟加拉湾湾口区的涡动能在个别年份会发展出一种与气候态存在显著异常的空间分布, 即在个别年份湾口中央海域异常出现涡动能极大值。通过对出现该异常现象最显著的2010年进行个例分析, 发现当年的孟加拉湾海表风场发展出一个气旋式环流异常, 显著地改变了海洋上层环流形态, 极大地影响了平均流场与涡旋场之间的相互作用。进一步对维持涡动能平衡的各做功项进行诊断后发现, 湾口异常海域涡动能年际变化的主要影响因素为海洋内部的压强做功, 其次是正压不稳定过程和平流的做功, 海表风应力做功项贡献较小。     

Effect of Langmuir circulation on upper ocean mixing in the South China Sea

Effect of Langmuir circulation (LC) on upper ocean mixing is investigated by a two-way wave-current coupled model. Themodel is coupled of the ocean circulationmodel ROMS (regional ocean modeling system) to the surface wave model SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) via the model-coupling toolkit. The LC already certified its importance by many one-dimensional (1D) research andmechanismanalysis work. This work focuses on inducing LC’s effect in a three-dimensional (3-D) model and applying it to real field modeling. In ROMS, theMellor-Yamada turbulence closuremixing scheme is modified by including LC’s effect. The SWAN imports bathymetry, free surface and current information fromthe ROMS while exports significant wave parameters to the ROMS for Stokes wave computing every 6 s. This coupled model is applied to the South China Sea (SCS) during September 2008 cruise. The results show that LC increasing turbulence and deepening mixed layer depth (MLD) at order of O (10 m) in most of the areas, especially in the north part of SCS where most of our measurements operated. The coupled model further includes wave breaking which will bringsmore energy into water. When LC works together with wave breaking,more energy is transferred into deep layer and accelerates the MLD deepening. In the north part of the SCS, their effects aremore obvious. This is consistent with big wind event in the area of the Zhujiang River Delta. The shallow water depth as another reasonmakes themeasy to influence the oceanmixing as well.     

Comparing a quasi-3D to a full 3D nearshore circulation model: SHORECIRC and ROMS

Predictions of nearshore and surf zone processes are important for determining coastal circulation, impacts of storms, navigation, and recreational safety. Numerical modeling of these systems facilitates advancements in our understanding of coastal changes and can provide predictive capabilities for resource managers. There exists many nearshore coastal circulation models, however they are mostly limited or typically only applied as depth integrated models. SHORECIRC is an established surf zone circulation model that is quasi-3D to allow the effect of the variability in the vertical structure of the currents while maintaining the computational advantage of a 2DH model. Here we compare SHORECIRC to ROMS, a fully 3D ocean circulation model which now includes a three dimensional formulation for the wave-driven flows. We compare the models with three different test applications for: (i) spectral waves approaching a plane beach with an oblique angle of incidence; (ii) monochromatic waves driving longshore currents in a laboratory basin; and (iii) monochromatic waves on a barred beach with rip channels in a laboratory basin. Results identify that the models are very similar for the depth integrated flows and qualitatively consistent for the vertically varying components. The differences are primarily the result of the vertically varying radiation stress utilized by ROMS and the utilization of long wave theory for the radiation stress formulation in vertical varying momentum balance by SHORECIRC. The quasi-3D model is faster, however the applicability of the fully 3D model allows it to extend over a broader range of processes, temporal, and spatial scales.     

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of wind-induced barotropic circulation in the Gulf of Patras

The barotropic, wind-induced circulation, which develops in the Gulf of Patras in Western Greece during the winter, is studied using three-dimensional numerical simulations. The simulations are performed using the numerical code MIKE 3 FM (HD). The Gulf's basin is bracketed between two sills, one on the west at the opening with the Ionian Sea and the other on the east at the Straits of Rio-Antirio at the opening with the Gulf of Corinth. The simulations show that the wind-induced flow creates strong currents near the coasts, which determine the sense of rotation of the gyres that develop in the Gulf. Strong currents are also created at the Rio-Antirio Straits. The wind-induced, barotropic currents do not seem to contribute to the direct replenishment of bottom waters, which recirculate between the two sills. Depending on the wind-speed forcing of the flow, the residence time of the waters in the Gulf of Patras is estimated to range from one week to one month.