Recurrence of solar activity: Evidence for active longitudes

The autocorrelation coefficients of the daily Wolf sunspot numbers over a period of 128 years reveal a number of interesting features of the variability of solar activity. In addition to establishing periodicities for the solar rotation, the solar activity cycle, and perhaps the Gleissberg Cycle, they suggest that active longitudes do exist, but with much greater strength and persistence in some solar cycles than in others. There is evidence for a variation in the solar rotation period, as measured by sunspot number, of as much as two days between different solar cycles.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Relative sunspot numbers in the first half of eighteenth century

We revised relative sunspot numbers in the time interval 1700–1748 for which Wolf derived their annual means. The frequency of daily observations, counting simultaneously the number of sunspots and the number of sunspot groups necessary for determinating Wolf's relative sunspot numbers, is in this time interval very low and covers, on average, 4.8% of the number of all days only. There also exist incomplete observations not convenient to determine relative sunspot numbers. To enlarge the number of daily relative sunspot numbers we used the nonlinear, two-step interpolation method derived earlier by Letfus (1996, 1999). After interpolation, the mean value increased to 13.8%. Waldmeier (1968) found that the scaling factor k can be derived directly from the observed number of spots f and from the number of sunspot groups g. From the observations made at Zürich (Wolf and his assistants, Wolfer), at Peckeloh, and at Moncalieri during the years 1861–1928, we derived a new, more correct empirical relation. The resulting annual relative sunspot numbers are given in Table II. However, only for 26 years (53.0%) from the total number of 49 years was it possible to derive annual relative sunspot numbers. The observations were missing for the other years. This corresponds with results of Wolf, which gives the annual relative sunspot numbers for all 49 years. For the years when the data were missing, he marked these values as interpolated or very uncertain ones. Most of the observations originate from two data series (Kirch, Plantade), for which Wolf derived a higher scaling factor (k=2.0) than followed from the newly derived relation (k=1.40). The investigated time interval covers four solar cycles. After our results, the height of the first cycle (No. –4), given by Wolf, should be lowered by about two-thirds, the following two cycles (Nos. –3 and –2) lowered by one-third, as given by Wolf, and only the height of the fourth one (No. –1) should be unchanged. The activity levels of the cycles, as represented by group sunspot numbers, are lower by about one-fourth and, in the case of the first one (No. –4) even by two-thirds of the levels derived by us. The group sunspot numbers, derived from a much greater number of observations, have also greater credibility than other estimates. The shapes of the cycles, as given by Wolf, can be considered only as their more or less idealized form.     

The solar wind cycle,the sunspot cycle,and the corona

Recent theories of the solar cycle and of coronal heating strongly suggest that solar cycle variations of different quantities (i.e. sunspots, coronal green line, etc.) ought not to be expected to be in phase with one another. In agreement with this notion we note that the shape of the corona typical of a maximum eclipse occurs 1.5yr before sunspot maximum, compared with 2 yr as might be expected from Leighton's standard model. Further, we argue that the phase of the solar wind cycle can be determined from geomagnetic observations. Using this phase, a solar cycle variation of 100 km s^–1 in the solar wind velocity and 1 in the magnetic field intensity becomes apparent. In general, the solar wind cycle lags the coronal-eclipse-form cycle by 3 yr, compared with the 2 yr that might be expected from model calculations.     

SOLAR ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF TWO-WAVE MAGNETIC FLUX GENERATION

Solar activity has been studied by using the time series of the yearly mean Wolf sunspot numbers. It was shown that the long-term variation of solar activity could be interpreted both as a beat between the two wave magnetic flux with 21.5-yr and 19.3-yr periods and the epochs of low solar activity after the phase failure. This magnetic flux is likely to be generated by the torsional oscillations of the transition layer located at the bottom of the Sun's convection zone.The periodicities of solar cycles obtained allow us to predict the Sun's activity in the 21st century with high probability. In particular, cycle 23 is predicted to start in 1999 and its maximum to occur between mid-2005 and mid-2006, the Wolf number being in the interval 50–65.     

Chromospheric ‘active region loops’

Archshaped structures above or around sunspot groups are considered as tracers of the magnetic lines of force. A study of the chromospheric contribution to the 3D general pattern is necessary to quantify this relationship. The emissive features detected in nine different active regions (AR) and observed on the disk at different levels in the chromosphere have been analysed (6 maps/AR). A good spatial correspondence is found between the maxima of Ca II K₃ and H emissions. Eleven archshaped structures may be easily interpreted as loops. The footpoints are located on both sides of an inversion region in the magnetic field. They always avoid the local maxima and minima of the photospheric line-of-sight magnetic fields (H ) pattern independent of the heliographic longitude. This suggests that the magnetic lines of force may have an oblique direction relative to the solar surface.Underneath the footprints, H is about 400–500 G and V the line-of-sight component of velocity in the photosphere) is less than 100 m s^-1 (frequently involving an inversion of velocity sign, i.e., V = 0 line). The mean distance between the feet of the arches is about 30000 km. Height is variable: the arches are lower in the young AR, higher when it evolves, scarcely or not detectable when the AR is dying. The maximum peaks in K ₁ v(the blue wing of K line) are observed at the periphery of the highest values of H and K ₃ intensities, or at the periphery of the AR.There are no great morphological differences between the slowly-varying arches and the flaring ones. However, a new relation is found between these two kinds of chromospheric features: at the maximum of flares, the flaring arch has one of its footpoints in common with a closer stable, pre-existing arch.On leave from Nanjing University, China.     

Study of alpha component dynamics in the solar wind using the Prognoz satellite

The analysis of solar wind He⁺⁺ and H⁺ ion distribution functions, collected over five months by the satellite Prognoz 1, shows that these are in general maxwellian but that often tails appear at higher speeds. The existing relation V-T, the observation of ratios of T/Tp 3.83 and V/Vp 1.035 give evidence of preferential He⁺⁺ ion heating and acceleration. The criteria for heating by dissipation of hydromagnetic waves proposed by Barnes and Hung (1973) are tested experimentally. Finally, multifluid models are likely to predict certain observations such as dependence of the velocity ratio V/Vp on the solar wind flux.     

On ‘bimodality of the solar cycle’ and the duration of cycle 21

The period-growth dichotomy of the solar cycle predicts that cycle 21, the present solar cycle, will be of long duration (>133 mo), ending after July 1987. Bimodality of the solar cycle (i.e., cycles being distributed into two groups according to cycle length, based on a comparison to the mean cycle period) is clearly seen in a scatter diagram of descent versus ascent durations. Based on the well-observed cycles 8–20, a linear fit for long-period cycles (being a relatively strong inverse relationship that is significant at the 5% level and having a coefficient of determination r ² 0.66) suggests that cycle 21, having an ascent of 42 mo, will have a descent near 99 mo; thus, cycle duration of about 141 mo is expected. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 occurs on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet is associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. A comparison of individual cycle, smoothed sunspot number curves for cycles 21 and 11 reveals striking similarity, which suggests that if, indeed, cycle 21 is a long-period cycle, then it too may have an extended tail of sustained, low, smoothed sunspot number, with cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.     

The solar corona: Flat formation

During the greater part of the 11-year sunspot cycle the solar corona represents largely a similar flat formation as in the minimum (looking like a galaxy), The observed variety of coronal forms is mainly due to variations of the corona's orientation as seen from the Earth. Two limiting cases of coronal orientation are discussed: perpendicular to the plane of the sky (edgewise towards the observer) and parallel with the plane of the sky. The first case is illustrated with the coronal observations of 11 July, 1991. The second case provides an opportunity to observe the corona from above the solar magnetic poles.     

Duration of Polar Activity Cycles and Their Relation to Sunspot Activity

We have defined the duration of polar magnetic activity as the time interval between two successive polar reversals. The epochs of the polarity reversals of the magnetic field at the poles of the Sun have been determined (1) by the time of the final disappearance of the polar crown filaments and (2) by the time between the two neighbouring reversals of the magnetic dipole configuration (l=1) from the H synoptic charts covering the period 1870–2001. It is shown that the reversals for the magnetic dipole configuration (l=1) occur on an average 3.3±0.5 years after the sunspot minimum according to the H synoptic charts (Table I) and the Stanford magnetograms (Table III). If we set the time of the final disappearance of the polar crown filaments (determined from the latitude migration of filaments) as the criterion for deciding the epoch of the polarity reversal of the polar fields, then the reversal occurs on an average 5.8±0.6 years from sunspot minimum (last column of Table I). We consider this as the most reliable diagnostic for fixing the epoch of reversals, as the final disappearance of the polar crown filaments can be observed without ambiguity. We show that shorter the duration of the polar activity cycle (i.e., the shorter the duration between two neighbouring reversals), the more intense is the next sunspot cycle. We also notice that the duration of polar activity is always more in even solar cycles than in odd cycles whereas the maximum Wolf numbers W _\max is always higher for odd solar cycles than for even cycles. Furthermore, we assume there is a secular change in the duration of the polar cycle. It has decreased by 1.2 times during the last 120 years.     

On the presence of SH in the sunspot spectrum

The expected equivalent widths of individual rotational lines of the most intense Q ₂ branch of the 0-0 band of the A ²-X²_i; system of S³²H and S³⁴H have been calculated in the umbral spectrum for five disk positions using Zwaan's (1974) sunspot model. Percentage abundance of S³⁴ in the terrestrial case has been considered valid in our calculations.Strong lines of S³²H and S³⁴H of the A-X band system should be detectable in the sunspot spectrum. The molecule SH may play a possible role as a major opacity source in the ultraviolet spectrum of sunspots along with the molecule OH in the upper layers (up to _0.5m = 1.0) wherefrom most of the continuum arises. Study of this molecule in the umbral spectrum may also provide the solar isotopic abundance ratio N(S³²)/N(S³⁴).     

Solar and stellar chromospheric contrast

Positions of active regions estimated from observations of the whole solar disk in Caii K _iv during the period 1977–1989 at the Coimbra Astronomical Observatory are compared with the time-dependent latitudinal distribution of background solar magnetic fields and with the latitudinal shifts of boundaries of their polarities. We confirm that the sunspot groups are located near the zonal boundaries between the opposite polarities of the solar background magnetic field during different phases of the two recent consecutive cycles of activity. We demonstrate a probable connection between the increased number of groups and the commencement of poleward migration of zonal boundaries in both hemispheres. But the influence of the dominant convective rolls seems to he still unclear. A new problem of interrelation between the zonal and sector boundaries has also appeared.     

Detection of the Long-Term Microwave `Darkening' Before the 14 July 2000 Flare

The latitudinal distribution of sunspot groups over a solar cycle is investigated. Although individual sunspot groups of a solar cycle emerge randomly at any middle and low latitude, the whole latitudinal distribution of sunspot groups of the cycle is not stochastic and, in fact, can be represented by a probability density function of the distribution having maximum probability at about 15.5°. The maximum amplitude of a solar cycle is found to be positively correlated against the number of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°) over the cycle, as well as the mean latitude. Also, the relation between the asymmetry of sunspot groups and its latitude is investigated, and a pattern of the N-S asymmetry in solar activity is suggested.     

Regularities of variation of the heliospheric current sheet orientation during the solar activity cycle

Evolution of spatial orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) has been studied in detail using synoptic maps of the HCS configuration over the period 1971–1989. Analysis involves all phases of the sunspot cycle except for two years of maximum solar activity. The helmet-like coronal streamers are confirmed to be structural elements of the HCS. The r.m.s. deviation of a real HCS configuration from a plane does not exceed about 10° during most of the sunspot cycle length. Hence, minimum-type corona should be observed every time the HCS is oriented parallel to the line-of-sight, independent of the cycle phase. Such occasions have been observed apart from the sunspot minimum epochs at the solar eclipses of 31 August, 1932 and 11 July, 1991.Regularities of variation of the two following parameters of the HCS orientation have been revealed: obliquity to the solar equator plane (heel or tilt) and longitudinal orientation (yawing). Behaviour of the above parameters is repeated in different cycles. However, heeling and yawing occur probably not synchronous but rather independent of one another.     

Synoptic Hα Full-Disk Observations of the Sun from Big Bear Solar Observatory – I. Instrumentation,Image Processing,Data Products,and First Results

The Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) has a long tradition of synoptic full-disk observations. Synoptic observations of contrast enhanced full-disk images in the Caii K-line have been used with great success to reproduce the Hi L irradiance variability observed with the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Recent improvements in data calibration procedures and image- processing techniques enable us now to provide contrast enhanced H full-disk images with a spatial resolution of approximately 2 and a temporal resolution of up to 3 frames min–1.In this first paper in a series, we describe the instruments, the data calibration procedures, and the image-processing techniques used to obtain our daily H full-disk observations. We also present the final data products such as low- and high-contrast images, and Carrington rotation charts. A time series of an erupting mini- filament further illustrates the quality of our H full-disk observations and motivate one of the future research projects. This lays a solid foundation for our subsequent studies of solar activity and chromospheric fine structures. The high quality and the sunrise- to-sunset operation of the H full-disk observations presented in this paper make them an ideal choice to study statistical properties of mini-filament eruptions, chromospheric differential rotation, and meridional flows within the chromosphere, as well as the evolution of active regions, filaments, flares, and prominences.     

Sunspot turning-points and aurorae since A.D. 1510

Dates of solar maxima and minima extending back to c. 1610 were estimated by Wolf and Wolfer at Zürich (Waldmeier, 1961) in the nineteenth century, and those back to c. 1710 have been generally accepted. Slight modifications have already been suggested by the author (Schove, 1967) for the seventeenth century, although, in that century, even the existence of the eleven-year cycle has been questioned (Eddy, 1976). In the course of any sunspot cycle we find a pattern of the aurorae in place and time characteristic of sunspot cycles of the particular amplitude-class. These patterns since c. 1710 can be linked to the precise dates of the Zürich turning-points by a set of empirical rules. A sunspot rule is based on the Gnevyshev gap, the gap in large sunspots near the smoothed maximum. These rules are here applied to the period c. 1510–1710 to give improved determination of earlier turning-points, and approximately confirm the dates given for the seventeenth century by Wolfer and for most of the later sixteenth century by Link (1978). Some turning-points for the fifteenth century and revised sunspot numbers for the period 1700–48 are also given.     

Periodogram analysis of 240 years of sunspot records

We have analyzed the direct records of sunspot number between 1749 and 1990 with the same technique currently used in the study of stellar activity cycles observed with Mount Wilson Observatory's 60-inch telescope. In order to mimic the stellar time series, which span only two decades, we analyzed twenty- and fifty-year intervals of the sunspot data in comparison to the entire record. We also examined the reliability of the oldest (pre-1850) sunspot records. The mean solar cycle period determined from the entire record (1749–1990) is 11.04 yr with a computed precision of ± 0.01 yr, but an overall accuracy of only ±1.1 yr. The large uncertainty is caused by variation of the cycle period with time and not observational uncertainty.The correct sunspot period is found slightly more often (82%) in 50-year intervals compared to 20-year (74%). The cause is twofold: first, a more precise period results from the longer sample length, and second, other periodicities exist in the sunspot record, so that a more accurate determination of the dominant 11.0-year period results from the longer time series. As a guideline for cycle periodicities in other stars, the solar results indicate that the 50-year intervals would produce more precise and accurate periods than the 20-year time series. On the other hand, useful statistics concerning long-term activity could be obtained from a less-frequently sampled group of stars that is substantially larger than the group of 100 lower Main-Sequence stars currently observed at Mount Wilson, although knowledge of short-term variability would be sacrificed.Pre-doctoral fellow, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.     

THE AMOUNT OF LITHIUM PRODUCED DURING IMPULSIVE FLARES

Recent observations have provided much real information about the acceleration of particles in solar flares. High-reliability data about accelerated particles have been obtained for an impulsive phase of some flares of the activity cycle XXII. Therefore, it seems reasonable to re-estimate the amount of Li atoms produced in the upper photospheric layers by – reactions. A value of 5 × 10 29 nuclei during the largest impulsive solar events has been found from calculations for the thick-target model. This agrees with observations of the line of lithium. In conclusion, the probability of enhanced Li absorption observed after large impulsive flares in the sunspot penumbra is discussed.     

An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

Solar constant secular changes

Our recent model for solar constant secular changes suggests that over extended time intervals, a positive correlation of the solar constant with solar activity results. The positive correlation in this model is not associated with the direct result of active region, which may be in a close energy balance over their lifetimes, but rather is associated with global features - bright global faculae. These exist as both polar and network features on the solar disk. The high latitude faculae enable the solar constant to peak prior to sunspot maximum. Recent solar constant observations support the model's general trend. Using this model, we now calculate a proxy solar constant for: (1) the past four centuries, based upon the sunspot record, (2) the past nine centuries, based upon ¹⁴C observations and their relation to solar activity, and (3) the next decade, based upon a dynamo theory model for the solar cycle. The proxy solar constant data is tabulated as it may be useful for climate modelers studying global climate changes. This could be helpful in disentangling possible solar influences from any anthropogenic changes associated with trace gas increases in the terrestrial atmosphere. An important point for climate modelers to consider in fixing climate model parameters, is that the Sun has been relatively active and thus bright in the latter half of the 20th century, compared with the past few centuries.This paper was presented at the third meeting of the Solar Cycle Workshop, held in Sydney, Australia, January 9–13, 1989.Physics Dept., Univ. of Northern Colorado, U.S.A.     

The oscillatory velocity field observed in a unipolar sunspot region

The velocity field has been mapped for 42 min in an area 80 by 85 containing a unipolar sunspot. Apparent shifts of Fe i 5233 were measured photoelectrically using a rectangular scanning aperture 1.6 × 4.0. The sunspot did not exert a marked influence on the generally random pattern of oscillations at a period of 300 s. Discrete periods of oscillation both longer and shorter than 300 s were excited within the enhanced magnetic field boundaries of this spot. Umbral oscillations at periods near 180 s were detected in agreement with independent observations of the same spot during the previous solar rotation.NRC Postdoctoral Fellow, 1969–71.