An upper mantleP-wave velocity model for eastern and southern Africa

AP-wave velocity model for the upper mantle beneath eastern and southern Africa is proposed. The top 250 km of the model is characterized by relatively low velocities similar to those deduced for the upper mantle beneath the western United States of America. At greater depths, the velocities gradually change to normal mantle values.     

Simulating wetland impacts on stream flow in southern Africa using a monthly hydrological model

The processes that occur in wetlands and natural lakes are often overlooked and not fully incorporated in the conceptual development of many hydrological models of basin runoff. These processes can exert a considerable influence on downstream flow regimes and are critical in understanding the general patterns of runoff generation at the basin scale. This is certainly the case for many river basins of southern Africa which contain large wetlands and natural lakes and for which downstream flow regimes are altered through attenuation, storage and slow release processes that occur within the water bodies. Initial hydrological modelling studies conducted in some of these areas identified the need to explicitly account for wetland storage processes in the conceptual development of models. This study presents an attempt to incorporate wetland processes into an existing hydrological model, with the aim of reducing model structural uncertainties and improving model simulations where the impacts of wetlands or natural lakes on stream flow are evident. The approach is based on relatively flexible functions that account for the input–storage–output relationships between the river channel and the wetland. The simulation results suggest that incorporating lake and wetland storage processes into modelling can provide improved representation (the right results for the right reason) of the hydrological behaviour of some large river basins, as well as reducing some of the uncertainties in the quantification of the original model parameters used for generating the basin runoff. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood frequency under changing climate in the upper Kafue River basin, southern Africa: a large scale hydrological model application

The projected impacts of climate change and variability on floods in the southern Africa has not been well studied despite the threat they pose to human life and property. In this study, the potential impacts of climate change on floods in the upper Kafue River basin, a major tributary of the Zambezi River in southern Africa, were investigated. Catchment hydrography was delineated using the Hydro1k at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The daily global hydrological model WASMOD-D model was calibrated and validated during 1971–1986 and 1987–2001 with the simple-split sample test and during 1971–1980 and 1981–1990 with the differential split sample test, against observed discharge at Machiya gauging station. Predicted discharge for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 were obtained by forcing the calibrated WASMOD-D with outputs from three GCMs (ECHAM, CMCC3 and IPSL) under the IPCC’s SRES A2 and B1 scenarios. The three GCMs derived daily discharges were combined by assigning a weight to each of them according to their skills to reproduce the daily discharge. The two calibration and validation tests suggested that model performance based on evaluation criteria including the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), Percent Bias and R ² was satisfactory. Flood frequency analysis for the reference period (1960–1990) and two future time slices and climate change scenarios was performed using the peak over threshold analysis. The magnitude of flood peaks was shown to follow generalised Pareto distribution. The simulated floods in the scenario periods showed considerable departures from the reference period. In general, flood events increased during both scenario periods with 2021–2050 showing larger change. The approach in our study has a strong potential for similar assessments in other data scarce regions.     

Evolution of continental crust in southern Africa

Nd isotopic data from the Zimbabwe and Kaapvaal cratons and the Limpopo, Kalahari, Namaqualand and Damara mobile belts imply that over 50% of present-day continental crust in this region had separated from the mantle by the end of the Archaean and that< 10% of continental crust of southern Africa has formed in the last 1.0 Ga. Such a growth rate implies that average erosion rates through geological time were high and that evolution of continental crust has been dominated by crustal growth prior to 1.4 Ga, and crustal reworking since that time. The evolution of average crust is not represented directly by clastic sediment samples but may be determined from sediment analyses if both the time of orogeneses and the average erosion rate are known. Both trace element data from southern Africa granitoids and the high erosion rates implied by the isotopic study suggest that growth of continental crust in the Archaean was by underplating rather than lateral accretion, but arc accretion was the dominant mechanism after 2.0 Ga.     

Preliminary transient heat flow model of the Rio Grande rift in southern New Mexico

A positive gravity anomaly, anomalous seismic structure, and abnormally high reduced heat flow occur in a possible extension of the Rio Grande rift in southern New Mexico. The reduced heat flux is explained by the transient effects of basaltic intrusions with dimensions based on interpretations from gravity and seismic data. Ages of volcanic activity in the rift area are used to determine times of thermal events. The effect of latent heat and sharp boundaries of the reduced heat flow anomaly also restrict modeling. The thermal model consists of three intrusions at the base of the crust at 35 m.y., 10 m.y. and 5 m.y. The initial temperatures of these intrusions would differ from those in the surrounding crust and upper mantle by about +800°C, +800°C, and +600°C, respectively. The 35-m.y. intrusion is consistent with Oligocene volcanism and tectonic activity in southwestern New Mexico. This mass also contributes to the Bouguer gravity high in the rift area, as do the intrusions at 10 and 5 m.y. The intrusions at 10 and 5 m.y. explain the excess reduced flux, with the 5-m.y. pulse accounting for most of the curvature in the sharp boundaries of the anomaly. The idealized model is consistent with late Tertiary andesites, the periods of little extrusive activity, and Pliocene-Quaternary basalts in the rift area.     

Heat production in an Archean crustal profile and implications for heat flow and mobilization of heat-producing elements

We have measured concentrations of heat producing elements (Th, U, and K) in 58 samples representative of the main lithologies in a 100 km transect of the Superior Province of the Canadian Shield, from the Michipicoten (Wawa) greenstone belt, near Wawa, Ontario, through a domal gneiss terrane of amphibolite grade, to the granulite belt of the Kapuskasing Structural Zone, near Foleyet. This transect has been interpreted as an oblique cross section through some 25 km of crust, uplifted along a major thrust fault, and thus provides an opportunity to examine in detail a continuous profile into deep continental crust of Archean age. Mean heat production values for these terranes, based on aereal distribution of major rock types and calculated from their Th, U, and K concentrations are: Michipicoten greenstone belt = 0.72 μW m⁻³; Wawa domal gneiss terrane (amphibolite grade) = 1.37 μW m⁻³; Kapuskasing granulites = 0.44 μW m⁻³. Among the silicic plutonic rocks (tonalites, granites, and their derivative gneisses), the relatively large variation in heat production correlates with modal abundances of accessory minerals including allanite, sphene, zircon, and apatite. We interpret these variations as primary (pre-metamorphic). The relatively high weighted mean heat production of the domal gneiss terrane can be accounted for by the larger proportion there of late-stage Th-, U-, and K-rich granitoid plutons. These may have been derived from the underlying Kapuskasing granulite terrane, leaving it slightly depleted in heat producing elements. Transport of Th, U, and K, therefore, could have taken place in silicate melts rather than in aqueous or carbonic metamorphic fluids. This conclusion is supported by the lack of a statistically significant difference in heat production between tonalites, tonalite gneisses and mafic rocks of amphibolite versus granulite grade.The pre-metamorphic radioactivity profile for this crustal section is likely to have been uniformly low, with a mean heat production value less than 1 μW m⁻³. This result is distinctly different from measured profiles in more silicic terranes, which show decreasing heat production with depth. This implies fundamental differences in crustal radioactivity distributions between granitic and more mafic terranes, and may be an important factor in selective reactivation of lithologically different terranes, possibly resulting in preferential stabilization of basic terranes in the geological record. Our results indicate that a previously determined apparently linear heat flow-heat production relationship for the Kapuskasing area does not relate to the distribution of heat production with depth. Low, but significant heat production, 0.4–0.5 μW m⁻³, continues to lower crustal depths with no correlation to the depth parameter from the linear relationship. This low heat production may be a minimum average granulite heat production and suggests that, in general, heat flow through the Moho is 8–10 mW m⁻² lower than the reduced heat flow calculated from the heat flow-heat production regression.     

Three modelling approaches for seasonal streamflow droughts in southern Africa: the use of censored data

Abstract

Three approaches to modelling the duration of streamflow droughts at eight southern African sites are considered; a non-parametric method (that of Kaplan-Meier) is compared with the fitting of two simple parametric models: the exponential and Weibull. All techniques allow the instantaneous probability of a drought coming to an end to differ between wet and dry seasons, using the concept of censored data. Model-fitting is discussed, and the Kaplan-Meier estimates permit an assessment of the fit of the parametric models, with the aim of finding a parsimonious model for the data, which can be used for predictive purposes. In most cases considered herein, either the exponential or Weibull approach is found to be adequate.     

Flood frequency analysis of southern Africa: I. Delineation of homogeneous regions

Abstract

A graphical test is presented to check if recorded annual maximum flood data for a group of gauging stations in a region belong to a common parent distribution (P). The test compares the observed at site L-coefficient of variation (Lcv) with its sampling distribution. The latter is obtained by generating synthetic sequences from an assumed parent distribution (P). A group of sites is deemed to be homogeneous if the observed Lcv, treated as an order statistic, lies within its sampling distribution. The proposed test has been applied to annual maximum flood data from Tanzania to delineate the country into 12 homogeneous regions.     

Flood frequency analysis of southern Africa: II. Identification of regional distributions

Abstract

Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum flood data comprising 407 stations from 11 countries of southern Africa is presented. Forty-one homogeneous regions are identified. The L-moments of the observed data indicate that the possible underlying frequency distributions are Pearson type 3 (P3), lognormal 3-parameter (LN3), General Pareto (GPA) or General Extreme Value (GEV). Simulation experiments for the selection of the most suitable flood frequency procedure indicate that Pearson type 3/Probability Weighted Moments (P3/PWM) and log-Pearson type 3/Method of Moments (LP3/MOM) are suitable procedures for the region.     

Subvolcanic complexes of Namaqualand and southern South West Africa

Two lines of subvolcanic complexes crop out in northern Namaqualand and southern South West Africa. The older Precambrian age complexes contain rocks belonging to the Richtersveld Suite and they form a belt that runs northwards for at least 125 km. Some of the lavas, tuffs and agglomerates that were extruded from the vents above these complexes have been preserved as intercalated layers in the Stinkfontein Formation. A second chain of intrusives known as the Kuboos line extends in a northeasterly direction for 160 km from Swarbank near the coast in Namaqualand to Bremen in southern South West Africa. Inland from the coast along this Kuboos line the intrusive bodies are found emplaced at progressively higher crustal levels. In the southwest they are coarse grained plutonic bodies while in the northeast they consist of plugs, stocks and ring-dykes. Rocks belonging to both the Richtersveld and Kuboos suites crop out at Bremen where the two lines of subvolcanic intrusive meet. The intrusive and extrusive rocks of both the Richtersveld and Kuboos suites are described and their genesis is discussed.     

A regional model of low flow for southern Taiwan

The primary purpose of this study is to develop regional models of the lower part of flow duration curves (LPFDCs) to synthesize low‐flow characteristics at ungauged sites in southern Taiwan. Because of the close relationship between low streamflow regimes and hydrogeological features, the model development first involved delimiting homogeneous hydrogeological regions by using two‐step cluster analysis. Each homogeneous region was then discriminated by an equation developed on the basis of its hydrogeological features, which was then used to determine which of three sets of regional LPFDC models would be appropriate for a particular ungauged site. Each of the three sets of regional LPFDC models were developed using both conventional multivariate statistical regression and fuzzy regression. Thirty‐four stream‐gauged watersheds located in southern Taiwan provide the data set. The study results reveal that the regional LPFDC models developed in this study could be applied reasonably at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

Developing a 150 ka luminescence chronology for the barrier dunes of the southern Cape, South Africa

The southern coastline of South Africa exhibits extensive aeolianites and spectacular barrier dunes; the ages and palaeoenvironmental significance of which have, until recently, received limited attention. We present preliminary results for samples taken from a single 6.5 m section in the seaward barrier dune near to the town of Wilderness. The reliability of these ages has been investigated using a series of dose recovery and pulsed irradiation experiments, as well as through analyses of single aliquot and single grain D_e distributions. Results indicate that the SAR protocol is providing accurate and precise D_e determinations and that adequate sensitivity correction is being made. The application of pulsed irradiations does not result in significant changes in the dose–response curves or averaged D_e's. Single grain D_e distributions are broad, with significant levels of overdispersion, which may reflect beta dose heterogeneity effects.

Peaks in aeolian activity date to 157–154 and 140–125 ka, with a slower rate of deposition recorded from 115 to 85 ka. Brief phases at 40 and 21 ka are also identified. Some ages, notably those from OIS 3 and OIS 2, are surprising from a geomorphological perspective, given the likely distance of the dune from the shoreline at such times, although they are not inconsistent with evidence from the east coast of South Africa. The results reveal multiple phases of Late Quaternary barrier dune accumulation, and suggest that aeolian activity in this region has been episodic and potentially more complex than previously thought.     

A comparison of Miocene and Archean rhyolite hyaloclastites: Evidence for a hot and fluid rhyolite lava

In this paper, we compare the geology and petrography of Miocene and Archean submarine rhyolite hyaloclastites. The hyaloclastites are sparsely (10% or less) plagioclase- (± quartz and pyroxene-) phyric. The hyaloclastites consist of a feeder dyke from which branch lava lobes and irregularly shaped lava pods. The lava bodies consist of a holocrystalline core with microlitic texture, grading outward into a flow-layered rim zone and, finally, into obsidian. The proportion of plagioclase and pyroxene microlites decreases outward. Some layers of the rim zone may be pumiceous (vesicularity up to 50%, vesicle size 1 mm or less), but most of the lava has less than 5% vesicles one or a few cm long. The obsidian shows perlitic fracture patterns. The lava bodies grade through an in-situ breccia into a hyaloclastite composed of angular obsidian granules and, in many cases, of fragments of lava lobes.Evidence for alteration at high temperature is as follows: in the Archean rhyolite hyaloclastites, plagioclase microlites are overgrown by quartz-albite spherulites. Furthermore, parts of the Miocene and Archean hyaloclastite have been cemented and granules have been marginally replaced by quartz and albite. Hyaloclastite cemented at high temperature locally shows columnar joints. At low temperatures, obsidian has been hydrated and/or has been replaced by clay minerals, zeolites, chlorite or prehnite. “Chess-board” albite and fibroradial prehnite in Archean hyaloclastite is possibly a pseudomorph after zeolites.The sparsely porphyritic nature of the lava and the absence of microlites from the quenched glass suggests that the thyolite hyaloclastites extruded at high (near liquidus) temperature. Furthermore pumice is present only locally, in the flow-layered rim zone and in fragments derived from that zone. These features suggest that vesiculation was inhibited by the weight of the water column. High temperature and possibly the volatile (H₂O) content explain the relatively low viscosity and shear strength of the lava, and resulted in the flow morphology particular to this type of hyaloclastic rhyolite flows.     

Three-dimensional geoelectrical model of southern Kamchatka

The magnetotelluric data for the southern part of Kamchatka Peninsula are interpreted in the mode of three-dimensional (3D) model fitting of the invariant characteristics of impedance and tipper matrices. The interpretation yielded the distribution of electric conductivity in the crust and mantle of the Earth. Conductive blocks are revealed in the junction zone of the Kamchatka depression and Pribrezhnyi horst, as well as beneath the Mutnovskii-Vilyuchik and Avacha-Koryak groups of volcanoes. These blocks are confined to the sublatitudinally trending regional faults and to the upper part of the asthenosphere. The locations of the conductive zones are correlated to the distributions of low-density and low-velocity domains and areas of high seismic and volcanic activity, which is probably due to the significant fluid saturation of these zones.     

A forest floor model for heat and moisture including a litter layer

Forest soils are often covered with a litter that influences the rate of mass and energy transfer between the soil and the air above, thereby modifying the temperature and moisture fields in the soil. The presence of a litter should therefore be accounted for in forest SVAT models, especially when long-term simulations are to be performed. A heat and moisture litter model has been developed by adding two dynamical equations to a force-restore type soil model. The experimental data used for the model validation was collected in a pine forest canopy in the South-West of France, that was part of the Euroflux network. The model is tested and validated over a two-year period. It is shown to provide a fairly good simulation of soil and litter moisture, soil and litter temperature and turbulent fluxes measured above the forest floor. It is also shown that simulations without the litter layer are unable to reproduce all these variables simultaneously. We then perform a sensitivity analysis to the parameters whose values are either uncertain or likely to be variable in time and space, such as the litter thickness, the rainfall fraction intercepted by the litter or the maximum value of the surface resistance. A threshold value of the litter moisture used in the surface resistance parameterisation turns out to be the most critical parameter. Further work is needed to investigate the possible relationships between the various parameters describing the litter, but the present litter model can already be used in combination with other forest SVAT models.     

Geochemistry of the oldest MORB and OIB in the Isua Supracrustal Belt, southern West Greenland: Implications for the composition and temperature of early Archean upper mantle

Abstract Recent geological investigations of the Isua Supracrustal Belt (3.8 Ga), southern West Greenland, have suggested that it is the oldest accretionary complex on earth, defined by an oceanic plate‐type stratigraphy and a duplex structure. Plate history from mid‐oceanic ridge through plume magmatism to subduction zone has been postulated from analysis of the reconstructed oceanic plate stratigraphy in the accretionary complex. Comparison between field occurrence of greenstones in modern and ancient accretionary complexes reveals that two types of tholeiitic basalt from different tectonic settings, mid‐oceanic ridge basalt (MORB) and oceanic island basalt (OIB), occur. This work presents major, trace and rare earth element (REE) compositions of greenstones derived from Isua MORB and OIB, and of extremely rare relict igneous clinopyroxene in Isua MORB. The Isua clinopyroxenes (Cpx) have compositional variations equivalent to those of Cpx in modern MORB; in particular, low TiO₂ and Na₂O contents. The Isua Cpx show slightly light (L)REE‐depleted REE patterns, and the calculated REE pattern of the host magma is in agreement with that of Isua MORB. Analyses of 49 least‐altered greenstones carefully selected from approximately 1200 samples indicate that Isua MORB are enriched in Al₂O₃, and depleted in TiO₂, FeO*, Y and Zr at the given MgO content, compared with Isua OIB. In addition, Isua MORB show an LREE‐depleted pattern, whereas Isua OIB forms a flat REE pattern. Such differences suggest that the Early Archean mantle had already become heterogeneous, depending on the tectonic environment. Isua MORB are enriched in FeO compared with modern MORB. Comparison of Isua MORB with recent melting experiments shows that the source mantle had 85–87 in Mg? and was enriched in FeO. Potential mantle temperature is estimated to be approximately 1480°C, indicating that the Early Archean mantle was hotter by at most approximately 150°C than the modern mantle.     

郯庐断裂带是热异常带吗:来自断裂带南段热流的约束

郯庐断裂带是东亚最重要的断裂之一,在构造地质、岩石矿物、地震分布等领域得到了广泛的关注,然而少有针对郯庐断裂带地热学的研究.本文作者对郯庐断裂带南段7口钻井进行了系统测温,采用光学扫描法测试了6口钻井的142块岩心和13块露头样品的热导率,获得了6个高质量的热流数据.结合已发表的热流和地震剖面资料,我们获得了郯庐断裂带南段的岩石圈结构.研究表明,郯庐断裂带南段现今地温梯度从南到北有增大的趋势,介于21.8~30.3℃·km^-1.大地热流值介于44.0~81.7 mW·m^-2,平均61.4±10.8 mW·m^-2,表现为正常大地热流的特征,并非热异常带.最大热流值出现在庐枞盆地的大陆科学钻探井ZK03处,上地壳浅部极高的生热层很可能是高热流的主要因素.沿郯庐断裂南段地震带浅源地震发震带的底界和350℃等温面耦合较好,指示了深部结构的差异.