The statistical observation localized equivalent-weights particle filter in a simple nonlinear model

This paper presents an improved approach based on the equivalent-weights particle filter(EWPF) that uses the proposal density to effectively improve the traditional particle filter. The proposed approach uses historical data to calculate statistical observations instead of the future observations used in the EWPF’s proposal density and draws on the localization scheme used in the localized PF(LPF) to construct the localized EWPF. The new approach is called the statistical observation localized E...     

Analysis, synthesis and modelling of high-resolution observations of salt-marsh eco-geomorphological patterns in the Venice lagoon

The present paper describes observations, analyses and models of salt-marsh channel network and vegetation patterns with the aim of contributing to the development of predictive models of ecological and morphological co-evolution. Existing and new observations are described, with particular emphasis on remote sensing and ancillary field surveys, which are shown to allow reliable, accurate and repeatable quantitative characterizations of landform and vegetation properties over the spatial scales of interest. The observed channel network morphological characters are then used as the basis and validation of models describing the emergence of channel network and vegetation spatial patterns. In particular, with reference to observations performed in the Venice Lagoon, the note describes: (i) new, 2-cm resolution, characterizations of channel network geometry obtained from “proximal sensing” photographic observations; (ii) the reliable quantitative maps of salt-marsh vegetation which may be retrieved from hyperspectral remote sensing data and field ancillary observations; (iii) a synthesis of recent and new analyses of the statistical properties of vegetation and landform spatial organization, that may be inferred from the maps so derived; (iv) recent and new conceptual and quantitative ecological and geomorphic models developed and validated by remote-sensing and field observations. A coherent observational and theoretical eco-morphodynamic framework is then proposed.     

Satellite observations of regular eddies in bays of the Shantar Archipelago, Sea of Okhotsk

Eddies with diameters of 4–40 km are formed near headlands running out into the sea in bays of the Shantar Archipelago. Such eddies play an important part in the dispersion of ice and plankton. The formation of these eddies is studied based on satellite and marine observations. To construct velocity vectors, images from the Aqua and Terra satellites were used (the data of channel 1 of the MODIS radiometer with a spatial resolution of 250 m). The measurements of currents were made by sequential satellite images with an interval of about 100 min. Large ice floes were chosen to determine currents by satellite data. Vectors of ice displacement were constructed and their velocities were calculated for each pair of images. The flow convergence is estimated using these data. The marine observations include direct observations of currents and CTD data. The observations of currents were obtained with electromagnetic meters mounted on anchored buoys. The results of direct observations point to tidal currents as the main mechanism for the formation of short-lived but regular convergence regions associated with headland eddies.     

Seasonal and annual variation in the primary production regime in the central part of Sagami Bay

Seasonal variations in the primary production regime in the upper water column were assessed by shipboard observations using hydrocasts and natural fluorescence profiling at a fixed station in the central part of Sagami Bay, Japan. The observations were conducted as a part of ‘Project Sagami’ dedicated to the interdisciplinary study of seasonality in bathyal benthic populations and its coupling with water column processes. Based on the time-series observations at intervals of about 1 to 2 months, primary productivity in terms of chlorophyll abundance appeared to be elevated during the spring of 1997, but the observed peaks of biomass were much less significant in the spring of 1998. Meanwhile, the organic matter flux, as indicated by sediment trap data and benthic observations, had a significant peak in the spring of 1998 as well, and its magnitude was comparable to that in 1997. Satellite images of ocean color obtained during the spring of 1997 indicate the importance of events with time scales much shorter than a month, and suggest qualitative differences in the phytoplankton community in the euphotic zone for each bloom event during this period. The possible mechanisms that could yield the spring maximum of material input to the benthic community are discussed.     

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500 m, and within a factor of three below 3500 m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100 m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000 m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000 m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47 °N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations.     

Variability in the thermal structure of ocean waters in periods of strong seismic activity

An integrated database is prepared. This database includes vertical profiles of oceanographic observations in the world ocean (more than seven million stations) and seismic catalogs (more than 200000 events) and makes it possible to analyze the variability in the thermal structure of ocean waters in seismically active zones. Examples of observations off Japan’s coasts are presented. These examples demonstrate the development of temperature anomalies up to 6°C at depths exceeding 200 m.     

Statistical fraud detection in a commercial lobster fishery

In this study we introduce the first step towards a statistical model for the reliability of fisheries data. We applied Benford's Law to catch data from the Atlantic Canadian lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery's lobster fishery areas (LFAs) 33 and 34 and compared our results to those using observations from the “grey zone” (a highly regulated lobster fishery shared by Canada and United States) and a fishery with a different regulatory regime (snow crab, Chionoecetes opilio). Non‐conformity with Benford's Law is often considered as an indicator of human manipulation of accounting data. We found that observations from the grey zone conformed to the distribution predicted by Benford's Law, whereas observations from snow crab and both lobster fishery areas did not conform.     

Assessment of the uncertainty in visual observations of wave height

Visual observations of wave height are still the main source of statistical information available for the prediction of extreme wave conditions to be used in the design of ship structures. However, the observations need to be calibrated with measurements. This work examines previous calibration studies and after joining the old with more recent data sets a reanalysis of the complete data sets is performed leading to updated regression equations.     

Comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of snow cover in Russian watersheds according to observations and reanalyses

Seasonal and interannual variability of the water equivalent of snow over the period 1966–1996 is analyzed with the use of the ERA/ECMWF reanalysis data, two versions of the NCEP reanalysis, and ground-based instrumental observations. Regions have been determined where snow characteristics from various sources are most consistent. In general, the snow water equivalent data from the ERA reanalysis are closer to the snow survey data than the NCEP reanalysis data. The best consistency of the water equivalent of snow in the reanalyses with measured data is observed in the period when the snow cover begins to form, in November and December, and the largest discrepancies are found for the snowmelt period, April and May. The interannual variability of the water equivalent in Asian Russia in the 1990s is better reproduced by the NCEP/DOE-II reanalysis. The snow cover data from satellite observations are compared with ground-based instrumental observations. It is shown that large discrepancies between the snow surveys and satellite observations may be observed at the snow-cover boundary during periods of snow formation and snowmelt.     

基于HY-2 卫星观测分析南海风浪关系

海面有效波高(H1/3)是表征海浪的重要参数,随着卫星遥感技术的发展,雷达高度计已成为获取海面有效波高的重要手段,但也只能对卫星星下点轨迹处进行有效观测,远无法满足大范围应用的需求.本研究结合2013年10月HY-2雷达高度计观测的海面有效波高和微波散射计观测的海面风场资料,分别对高、低风速下风浪数据进行拟合,建立了适用于0~40 m/s风速范围内的南海海域风浪关系模型,经模型比对和结果验证,结果表明,基于HY-2卫星数据分析建立的南海海域风浪关系模型是可信的,特别是低风速的风浪模型与实测数据建立的风浪模型具有很好的一致性;根据建立的风浪关系模型,从卫星散射计大面观测的海面风场出发,能推算出风浪条件下海面有效波高的大面信息,数据覆盖远高于卫星高度计的星下点观测,能为分析和预报海浪、风暴潮灾害提供大范围的海面有效波高信息.     

Microstructure of turbulence in the northern North Sea: a comparative study of observations and model simulations

Dissipation rate measurements in the northern North Sea from two independent observations are compared with various numerical models. The turbulence was characterised by tidal forcing in the bottom boundary layer and atmospheric forcing in the surface boundary layer. The observations were carried out by using free-falling profilers equipped with shear probes and fast CTD sensors. The models are based on Reynolds averaging and range from simple one-equation models to two-equation models with algebraic second-moment closures. Several error measures are applied for comparison of observations and model results. It is shown that the differences between the two observations are significantly larger than the equivalent measures between the model results. This is caused by the stochastic character of turbulent microstructure in connection with under-sampling, but also by the distance between the two observational sites, the movements of the vessels, instrument errors and so forth. The models on the other hand, although closed on different levels, are all based on the same assumptions and driven by the same external forcing, thus showing only relatively small differences between each other.     

Variations in tidal response of the medium in the spatiotemporal neighborhood of catastrophic earthquake in Japan

The predictability of catastrophic earthquakes according to data on time variations in tidal response is discussed. We present the results of a harmonic analysis of (1) a one-year record of tide-gauge observations with the use of two long-term vertical seismometers at the MAJO station on Honshu Island near the epicenter of the M _w = 9 catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, and (2) a 0.5-year record of horizontal pendulum observations at the ERM station near Hokkaido Island from March 13, 2010, to March 12, 2011, and from April 26, 2010, to August 3, 2010, respectively. The relative changes in the tidal amplitudes are found to be about 3 and 4%. The identification of distinct prognostic attributes awaits much more representative spatiotemporal statistics. These results can be adequately and reliably interpreted by analyzing “background” variations in the tidal amplitudes at these stations and, in particular, their possible seasonal variations. This requires at least several years of observations.     

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part III - Observation impact and observation sensitivity in the California Current System

The critical role played by observations during ocean data assimilation was explored when the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was applied sequentially to the California Current circulation. The adjoint of the 4D-Var gain matrix was used to quantify the impact of individual observations and observation platforms on different aspects of the 4D-Var circulation estimates during both analysis and subsequent forecast cycles. In this study we focus on the alongshore and cross-shore transport of the California Current System associated with wind-induced coastal upwelling along the central California coast. The majority of the observations available during any given analysis cycle are from satellite platforms in the form of SST and SSH, and on average these data exert the largest controlling influence on the analysis increments and forecast skill of coastal transport. However, subsurface in situ observations from Argo floats, CTDs, XBTs and tagged marine mammals often have a considerable impact on analyses and forecasts of coastal transport, even though these observations represent a relatively small fraction of the available data at any particular time.During 4D-Var the observations are used to correct for uncertainties in the model control variables, namely the initial conditions, surface forcing, and open boundary conditions. It is found that correcting for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and surface forcing has the largest impact on the analysis increments in alongshore transport, while the cross-shore transport is controlled mainly by the surface forcing. The memory of the circulation associated with the control variable increments was also explored in relation to 7 day forecasts of the coastal circulation. Despite the importance of correcting for surface forcing uncertainties during analysis cycles, the coastal transport during forecast cycles initialized from the analyses has less memory of the surface forcing corrections, and is controlled primarily by the analysis initial conditions.Using the adjoint of the entire 4D-Var system we have also explored the sensitivity of the coastal transport to changes in the observations and the observation array. A single integration of the adjoint of 4D-Var can be used to predict the change that occurs when observations from different platforms are omitted from the 4D-Var analysis. Thus observing system experiments can be performed for each data assimilation cycle at a fraction of the computational cost that would be required to repeat the 4D-Var analyses when observations are withheld. This is the third part of a three part series describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.     

A video-plankton and microstructure profiler for the exploration of in situ connections between zooplankton and turbulence

Turbulence and mixing are ubiquitous in the environment of planktonic organisms and critical in large-scale physical and chemical oceanographic budgets. Recent studies have shown conflicting results on the contribution of zooplankton to ocean mixing as well as the impact of turbulence on zooplankton feeding and swimming behavior. Some of the confusion arises from the lack of properly resolved, simultaneous and co-located observations of zooplankton and turbulence. This paper introduces and discusses results from preliminary deployments of a Video Plankton Recorder–Vertical Microstructure Profiler (VPR–VMP), which is shown to provide good quality, high-resolution, simultaneous observations of zooplankton and turbulence. Non-turbulent shear spectra associated with a zooplankton layer are discussed in terms of automating the rejection of unreliable dissipation estimates, the shear created by individual organisms and profiler avoidance. Comparing these fine-scale observations of zooplankton and turbulence with bulk measures and possible future improvements are also discussed.     

Satellite and in situ observations of the bio-optical signatures of two mesoscale eddies in the Sargasso Sea

Satellite ocean-color imagery and field spectroradiometer observations are used to assess the bio-optical signatures of two mesoscale features, a cyclone C1 and an 18°-water anticyclone A4, in the Sargasso Sea. Field determinations of upper layer bio-optical properties, such as the diffuse attenuation coefficient and remote-sensing reflectance spectra, show little statistically significant variations with distance to the eddy center for either eddy. This contrasts field observations showing many-fold higher phytoplankton pigment biomass at depth (and for A4 higher primary production rates at depth) than is typical for this region. The cyclone C1 does show a significant decrease in the depth of the 1% photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) isolume with increasing distance from eddy center while the anticyclone A4 shows no coherent signal vs. distance. Vertical profiles of bio-optical properties show consistent patterns where subsurface maxima are displaced higher inside the core of the cyclone C1 than in the surrounding waters while the highest values of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 443 nm are observed within the core of anticyclone A4. Satellite observations of near-surface bio-optical properties show signals consistent with eddy physical characteristics, although the magnitude of these variations is very small, barely detectable by typical field measurement protocols. Mean values of bio-optical properties are higher within the cyclone compared with its periphery but not for the anticyclone. For both eddies, significant inverse correlations are observed between time series of bio-optical properties and eddy center sea-level anomaly. Consistent response to wind speed is also noted: following strong wind events, bio-optical parameters are elevated inside the anticyclone and are reduced inside the cyclone. These observations demonstrate that a combination of physical processes, including vertical eddy uplift, eddy horizontal advection, and eddy-scale Ekman pumping, contribute to the bio-optical imprint of mesoscale eddies. The contributions of these forcing mechanisms change over the period of observation, illustrating the limitations of inferring eddy bio-optical dynamics from short-term, field observations. The present analyses provide insights into the potential as well as the drawbacks of bio-optical techniques for probing the biological and biogeochemical impacts of open-ocean eddies.     

Application of Two Turbulence Closure Schemes in the Modelling of Tidal Currents and Salinity in the Hooghly Estuary

This paper has two purposes. The first is to study the circulation and salinity in Hooghly Estuary, along the east coast of India and the second is to compare the performance of two turbulence closure schemes by modelling it. A breadth averaged numerical model using a sigma co-ordinate system in the vertical is briefly described. Vertical diffusion of momentum and salt are parameterized by a simple first-order turbulent closure or by a one equation model for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) which uses a specified mixing length. The results are compared with the available neap and spring tide observations along the estuary for both low and high discharge periods.The computed elevations and currents are in reasonable agreement with the observations showing no major differences in vertical current profiles by both the turbulent schemes. However, there is a slight under-prediction of bottom currents. The salinity profiles predicted by TKE model show better matching with observations. Statistical tests are also conducted to study the comparative performance of the turbulent closure schemes. The maintenance of two layer structure in residual currents and salt variability are also studied by using the model.     

Distribution and retention of Petrolisthes armatus in a coastal plain estuary: The role of vertical movement in larval transport

Since transport of planktonic larvae is essential to the maintenance and expansion of many marine species, we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of green porcelain crab Petrolisthes armatus (Gibbes, 1850) larvae and the possible underlying physical and behavioral mechanisms using a combination of field observations and numerical modeling. The field study consisted of observations of larval abundance and distribution as well as hydrographic surveys of the Satilla River estuary on the east coast of the USA in August 2006. Larvae were found throughout the water column within the tributaries but primarily at depth in the main river. A numerical model was used to examine the effect of flow and possible larval behavior responsible for the observed distribution and the consequences for larval retention in the estuary. Model results that included downward larval movement are consistent with the field observations, supporting the hypothesis that P. armatus larvae vertically migrate within the water column, which aids in their retention within the estuary.     

The limiting wave height in wind-induced wave trains

The vertical acceleration threshold concept has been applied to evaluate the limiting wave height in the train of wind-induced waves propagated over a horizontal bottom. This concept yields very simple computation of the probability of breaking for stochastic sea in deep and finite water depths. The computations confirmed the available field and laboratory observations that the limiting wave steepness in the deep water is lower than the steepness predicted by Stokes. For shallow water depth, the limiting wave height is smaller than 0.55h. This conclusion is consistent with field as well as wave tank observations.     

Features of the hydrological structure and circulation in the north-western Black Sea: shipboard and satellite observations in 1989–1990

The results of shipboard and satellite observations of the synoptic variability in the region of the continental slope south of the Tarkhankut Cape are considered. Ship observations revealed a two-layer circulation system of currents. An anticyclonic meander is localized within the upper mixed layer. A cyclonic disturbance, related to the main Black Sea current, occupies the water column below the seasonal thermocline. The interaction between the thermohaline fields is presumably induced by the anticyclonic atmospheric circulation. The satellite-derived images revealed a complex pattern of the large-scale dynamics of seawater over the entire north-western Black Sea.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

基于无线电探空和无线电掩星观测的北极上层气温研究

The air temperature is one of the most important parameters used for monitoring the Arctic climate change. The constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate and Formosa Satellite Mission 3(COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3) radio occultation(RO) "wet" temperature product(i.e., "wet Prf") is used to analyze the Arctic air temperature profiles at 925–200 hPa in 2007–2012. The "wet" temperatures are further compared with radiosonde(RS) observations. The results from the spatially and temporally synchronized RS and COSMIC observations show that their temperatures agree well with each other, especially at 400 hPa. Comparisons of seasonal temperatures and anomalies from the COSMIC and homogenized RS observations suggest that the limited number of COSMIC observations during the spatial matchup may be insufficient to describe the smallscale spatial structure of temperature variations. Furthermore, comparisons of the seasonal temperature anomalies from the RS and 5°×5° gridded COSMIC observations at 400 hPa during the sea ice minimum(SIM) of2007 and 2012 are also made. The results reveal that similar Arctic temperature variation patterns can be obtained from both RS and COSMIC observations over the land area, while extra information can be further provided from the densely distributed COSMIC observations. Therefore, despite COSMIC observations being unsuitable to describe the Arctic temperatures in the lowest level, they provide a complementary data source to study the Arctic upper-air temperature variations and related climate change.