An analysis of non-normal Markovian extremal droughts

In many arid and semi-arid environments of the world, years of extended droughts are not uncommon. The occurrence of a drought can be reflected by the deficiency of the rainfall or stream flow sequences below the long-term mean value, which is generally taken as the truncation level for the identification of the droughts. The commonly available statistics for the above processes are mean, coefficient of variation and the lag-one serial correlation coefficient, and at times some indication of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the sequences. The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period, which form a basis for designing facilities to meet exigencies arising as a result of droughts. The sequences of drought variable, such as annual rainfall or stream flow, may follow normal, log-normal or gamma distributions, and may evolve in a Markovian fashion and are bound to influence extremal values of the duration and severity. The effect of the aforesaid statistical parameters on the extremal drought durations and severity have been analysed in the present paper. A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the return period ‘T’ in years has been suggested in parallel to the flood frequency formula, commonly cited in the hydrological texts. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies

Abstract

A hydrological drought magnitude (M _T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M _T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M _T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L _T ), as well as the mean drought duration (L_m ), in a characteristic drought length (L_c ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M _T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M _T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569.     

Drought analysis of monthly hydrological sequences: a case study of Canadian rivers

Abstract

Two parameters of importance in hydrological droughts viz. the longest duration, L_T and the largest severity, S_T (in standardized form) over a desired return period, T years, have been analysed for monthly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. An important point in the analysis is that monthly sequences are non-stationary (periodic-stochastic) as against annual flows, which fulfil the conditions of stochastic stationarity. The parameters mean, μ, standard deviation, σ (or coefficient of variation), lag1 serial correlation, ρ, and skewness, γ (which is helpful in identifying the probability distribution function) of annual flow sequences, when used in the analytical relationships, are able to predict expected values of the longest duration, E(L_T ) in years and the largest standardized severity, E(S_T ). For monthly flow sequences, there are 12 sets of these parameters and thus the issue is how to involve these parameters to derive the estimates of E(L_T ) and E(S_T ). Moreover, the truncation level (i.e. the monthly mean value) varies from month to month. The analysis in this paper demonstrates that the drought analysis on an annual basis can be extended to monthly droughts simply by standardizing the flows for each month. Thus, the variable truncation levels corresponding to the mean monthly flows were transformed into one unified truncation level equal to zero. The runs of deficits in the standardized sequences are treated as drought episodes and thus the theory of runs forms an essential tool for analysis. Estimates of the above parameters (denoted as μ_av, σ_av, ρ_av, and γ_av) for use in the analytical relationships were obtained by averaging 12 monthly values for each parameter. The product- and L-moment ratio analyses indicated that the monthly flows in the Canadian rivers fit the gamma probability distribution reasonably well, which resulted in the satisfactory prediction of E(L_T ). However, the prediction of E(S_T ) tended to be more satisfactory with the assumption of a Markovian normal model and the relationship E(S_T ) ≈ E(L_T ) was observed to perform better.     

Spatio-temporal drought analysis in the Trakya region,Turkey

Abstract

Since droughts are natural phenomena, their occurrence cannot be predicted with certainty and thus it must be treated as a random variable. Once drought duration and magnitude have been found objectively, it is possible to plan for the transport of water in known quantities to drought-stricken areas either from alternative water resources or from water stored during wet periods. The summation of deficits over a particular period is referred to as the drought magnitude. Drought intensity is the ratio of drought magnitude to its duration. These drought properties at different truncation levels provide significant hydrological and hydrometeorological design quantities. In this study, the run analysis and z-score are used for determining drought properties of given hydrological series. In addition, kriging is used as a spatial drought analysis for mapping. This study is applied to precipitation records for Istanbul, Edirne, Tekirdag and Kirklareli in the Trakya region, Turkey and then the drought period, magnitude and standardized precipitation index (SPI) values are presented to depict the relationships between drought duration and magnitude.     

长江流域历史水旱灾害分析

长江流域有丰富和长期的水旱灾害史料,最早的水灾和旱灾记载有2000余年的历史,经过系统整理和分析的历史水旱灾害资料有1000余年的旱涝型年表和500余年的旱涝分布图集.在以上资料基础上,对长江流域历史水旱灾害的地域分布特性和时间变化规律进行了初步分析:500余年历史水旱灾害的地域分布显示,流域水旱灾害总体特征是水灾重于旱灾,各级水旱灾害频率的地域分布极不均匀,存在着显著的灾害多发和少发地带,它们与自然地理环境、水系特征、气候条件和社会经济条件等因素有关;1000余年旱涝型年表分析表明,长江流域洪涝和干旱频次在时间上的非均匀分布并非完全随机,表现出多种时间尺度的年际变化特征,其中主要表现为约100a上下的大干湿气候期变化及40a左右的小旱涝期振动.     

2009年秋至2010年春我国西南地区干旱及与历史场次干旱对比分析

2009年10月至2010年4月,我国西南地区由于受厄尔尼诺影响,气温偏高、降雨偏少,发生了秋冬春三季连旱,耕地受旱面积占全国同期耕地受旱面积的78%,受灾人口和大牲畜饮水困难头数都达到了近十年来该地区的最高水平。通过对比本次和历史场次干旱发现,西南干旱并非稀遇现象,1951~1990年的40年间该地区曾发生干旱12次,且1949年以来,干旱有缓慢加重的趋势;本次旱灾与1963年旱灾在时空分布、灾害成因和灾情方面较为相似,但从气象干旱的角度来看,虽然1963年部分受旱地区无有效降雨历时为11个月,高于本次旱灾的6个月,但本次受灾率和成灾率均为1949年以来的最大值,说明在快速发展背景下,经济社会面对干旱显得更为脆弱。这些结论对于认清西南地区干旱特性与旱灾演变规律,加强抗旱减灾体系建设,具有重要的参考价值。     

Estimating sand concentrations using ADCP-based acoustic inversion in a large fluvial system characterized by bi-modal suspended-sediment distributions

Quantifying sediment flux within rivers is a challenge for many disciplines due, mainly, to difficulties inherent to traditional sediment sampling methods. These methods are operationally complex, high cost, and high risk. Additionally, the resulting data provide a low spatial and temporal resolution estimate of the total sediment flux, which has impeded advances in the understanding of the hydro-geomorphic characteristics of rivers. Acoustic technologies have been recognized as a leading tool for increasing the resolution of sediment data by relating their echo intensity level measurements to suspended sediment. Further effort is required to robustly test and develop these techniques across a wide range of conditions found in natural river systems. This article aims to evaluate the application of acoustic inversion techniques using commercially available, down-looking acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) in quantifying suspended sediment in a large sand bed river with varying bi-modal particle size distributions, wash load and suspended-sand ratios, and water stages. To achieve this objective, suspended sediment was physically sampled along the Paraná River, Argentina, under various hydro-sedimentological regimes. Two ADCPs emitting different sound frequencies were used to simultaneously profile echo intensity level within the water column. Using the sonar equation, calibrations were determined between suspended-sand concentrations and acoustic backscatter to solve the inverse problem. The study also analyzed the roles played by each term of the sonar equation, such as ADCP frequency, power supply, instrument constants, and particle size distributions typically found in sand bed rivers, on sediment attenuation and backscatter. Calibrations were successfully developed between corrected backscatter and suspended-sand concentrations for all sites and ADCP frequencies, resulting in mean suspended-sand concentration estimates within about 40% of the mean sampled concentrations. Noise values, calculated using the sonar equation and sediment sample characteristics, were fairly constant across evaluations, suggesting that they could be applied to other sand bed rivers. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

格尔木井水温异常特征及其与地震关系分析

简要介绍了格尔木井水温动态观测的环境与条件,在研究正常动态特征和影响因素的基础上,对水温异常的映震关系进行了分析,并成功地进行了一次短临地震趋势预测。探讨了水温异常的形成原因。     

A site‐consistent method to quantify sufficiency of alternative IMs in relation to PSDA

In probabilistic seismic demand analysis, evaluation of the sufficiency of an intensity measure (IM) is an important criterion to avoid biased assessment of the demand hazard. However, there exists no metric to quantify the degree of sufficiency as per the criterion of Luco and Cornell (2007). This paper proposes a site‐specific unified measure for degree of sufficiency from all seismological parameters under consideration using a total information gain metric. This unified metric for sufficiency supports not only comparison of the performance of different IMs given a response quantity but also assessment of the performance of a particular IM across different response quantities. The proposed sufficiency metric was evaluated for a 4‐story steel moment frame building, and the influence of ground motion selection on the degree of sufficiency was investigated. It was observed that ground motion selection can have a significant impact on IM sufficiency. Because computing the total information gain requires continuous deaggregation across the IM space, an approximate deaggregation technique that allows for a more practical estimation of marginal deaggregation probabilities is proposed. It is expected that the total information gain metric proposed in this paper will aid in understanding the efficiency‐sufficiency relation, thus enabling the selection of a proper scalar IM for a given site and application in probabilistic seismic demand analysis.     

洱海近50a来沉水植被演替及其主要驱动要素

依据文献报道的洱海水质、水文(水位)和沉水植被(物种组成、生物量及分布面积)数据,分析了近50年来洱海的水质变化、水位波动情况以及沉水植被的演替过程,探讨了驱动洱海沉水植被演替的主要环境因子.分析表明,洱海沉水植被群落经历了原生、过渡、顶级和衰退等主要阶段;自1980s以来,流域入湖营养盐增加、水质持续下降、藻类生物量逐年升高、沉水植被群落结构简单化和抑藻功能退化等因素是驱动洱海沉水植被演替与分布的原动力,水位大幅波动加速了洱海水生态系统由清水态向浊水态转变,并导致沉水植物大量衰退和某些特有物种消失.因此,在洱海水生态系统的治理以及沉水植被的恢复过程中,应优先考虑降低外源营养盐输入和优化水位调控.     

Hydrogeochemistry and its relation to groundwater level fluctuation in the Palar and Cheyyar river basins,southern India

An investigation was carried out to understand the role of water level fluctuation on major‐ion chemistry of groundwater in the Palar and Cheyyar river basins, southern India. As groundwater is the only major source of water for agricultural and drinking purposes in this area, it is important to know the effect of geological formations and agricultural activities on groundwater chemistry. Groundwater samples were collected once a month from 43 wells (641 samples in total), from January 1998 to June 1999, and analysed for major ions. The results indicate that the major‐ion chemistry of the groundwater varies with respect to space. Groundwater occurring near the River Palar has a high concentration of major ions except calcium, due to the absence of any recharge from the river, whereas lower concentrations of major ions were observed in the central part of the study area due to the recharge of fresh water from a number of surface reservoirs. The major‐ion chemistry of the study region is controlled by both mineral dissolution and anthropogenic activities. The relative contributions of mineral dissolution and anthropogenic contamination are estimated by a stoichiometric approach, which suggests that mineral dissolution is the dominant process in both the formations. The relation between water level fluctuations and major‐ion chemistry indicates that major‐ion chemistry is also greatly influenced by the water level fluctuations in different geological formations. Thus, the major‐ion chemistry of groundwater in this region is greatly influenced by mineral dissolution, anthropogenic activities and water level fluctuations in different geological formations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The behaviour of the mean energetic level in time and space: Persistence,autocorrelations, links to standard levels

Summary The variances, persistence, and spatial autocorrelations of the basic quantities at the mean energetic level (MEL) as well as the links between the MEL and standard isobaric levels are investigated. The statistics obtained for the MEL are compared with those for height and temperature at the 500 and 300 hPa levels. The behaviour of most quantities at the MEL does not show any peculiarity making it substantially different from isobaric levels. The only quantity at the MEL, not closely correlated with any variable at adjacent standard levels, appeared to be the pressure.     

Coseismic responses of groundwater levels in the Three Gorges well-network to the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake

We systematically analyze coseismic responses and post-seismic characteristics of groundwater levels in the Three Gorges well-network to the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008. The results indicate that these characteristics differ among wells. On the conditions of similar borehole configurations, the differences are associated with geological structural sites of wells, burial types of aquifers monitored, and transmissivities of aquifer systems. We explored coseismic and post-seismic step-rise and step-drop mechanical mechanisms and their implication to earthquake prediction. We validated the inference that the residual step-rise zone is a possible earthquake risk zone based on recent seismic activity on the Xiannüshan fault in the area.     

Modelling exposure of oceanic higher trophic-level consumers to polychlorinated biphenyls: Pollution ‘hotspots’ in relation to mass mortality events of marine mammals

Marine mammals in the past mass mortality events may have been susceptible to infection because their immune systems were suppressed through the bioaccumulation of environmental pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). We compiled mortality event data sets of 33 marine mammal species, and employed a Finely-Advanced Transboundary Environmental model (FATE) to model the exposure of the global fish community to PCB congeners, in order to define critical exposure levels (CELs) of PCBs above which mass mortality events are likely to occur. Our modelling approach enabled us to describe the mass mortality events in the context of exposure of higher-trophic consumers to PCBs and to identify marine pollution ‘hotspots’ such as the Mediterranean Sea and north-western European coasts. We demonstrated that the CELs can be applied to quantify a chemical pollution Planetary Boundary, under which a safe operating space for marine mammals and humanity can exist.     

Evaluation of seismicity and seismic hazard parameters in Turkey and surrounding area using a new approach to the Gutenberg–Richter relation

In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.     

Application of ensemble kalman filter to geophysical parameters retrieval in remote sensing:A case study of kernel-driven BRDF model inversion

Remote sensing can provide multi-spatial resolution, multi-temporal resolution multi-spectral band and multi-angular data for the observation of land surface. At present, one of research focuses is how to make the best of these data to retrieve geophysical parameters in conjunction with their a priori knowledge and simul-taneously consider the influence of data uncertainties on inversion results[1-5]. The essence of remote sensing lies in inversion. It is difficult to precisely retrieve parame…     

Bayesian modelling of environmental risk: example using a small area ecological study of coronary heart disease mortality in relation to modelled outdoor nitrogen oxide levels

Bayesian modelling of health risks in relation to environmental exposures offers advantages over conventional (non-Bayesian) modelling approaches. We report an example using research into whether, after controlling for different confounders, air pollution (NO_x) has a significant effect on coronary heart disease mortality, estimating the relative risk associated with different levels of exposure. We use small area data from Sheffield, England and describe how the data were assembled. We compare the results obtained using a generalized (Poisson) log-linear model with adjustment for overdispersion, with the results obtained using a hierarchical (Poisson) log-linear model with spatial random effects. Both classes of models were fitted using a Bayesian approach. Including spatial random effects models both overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation effects arising as a result of analysing data from small contiguous areas. The first modelling framework has been widely used, while the second provides a more rigorous model for hypothesis testing and risk estimation when data refer to small areas. When the models are fitted controlling only for the age and sex of the populations, the generalized log-linear model shows NO_x effects are significant at all levels, whereas the hierarchical log-linear model with spatial random effects shows significant effects only at higher levels. We then adjust for deprivation and smoking prevalence. Uncertainty in the estimates of smoking prevalence, arising because the data are based on samples, was accounted for through errors-in-variables modelling. NO_x effects apparently are significant at the two highest levels according to both modelling frameworks.

Enzymatic and cellular responses in relation to body burden of PAHs in bivalve molluscs: A case study with chronic levels of North Sea and Barents Sea dispersed oil

Mytilus edulis and Chlamys islandica were exposed to nominal dispersed crude oil concentrations in the range 0.015–0.25 mg/l for one month. Five biomarkers (enzymatic and cellular responses) were analysed together with bioaccumulation of PAHs at the end of exposure. In both species, PAH tissue residues reflected the exposure concentration measured in the water and lipophylicity determined the bioaccumulation levels. Oil caused biomarker responses in both species but more significant alterations in exposed C. islandica were observed. The relationships between exposure levels and enzymatic responses were apparently complex. The integrated biomarker response related against the exposure levels was U-shaped in both species and no correlation with total PAH body burden was found. For the monitoring of chronic offshore discharges, dose- and time-related events should be evaluated in the selection of biomarkers to apply. From this study, cellular damages appear more fitted than enzymatic responses, transient and more complex to interpret.