全球变化与亚洲季风

本文介绍近年来季风研究的某些进展,着重介绍和探讨青藏高原和ＥＮＳＯ事件对于中国和印度夏季风雨量变化的影响以及在全球变暖的背景下中国和印度季风雨量的可能变化。     

Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constituted by the World Meteorological Organisation provides expert guidance regarding scientific and technical aspects of the climate problem. Since 1990 IPCC has, at five-yearlyintervals, assessedand reported on the current state of knowledge and understanding of the climate issue. These reports have projected the behaviour of the Asian monsoon in the warming world. While the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1996) on climate model projections of Asian/Indian monsoon stated ``Most climate models produce more rainfall over South Asia in a warmer climate with increasing CO<sub>2</sub>', the recent IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report states ``It is likely that the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase in Asian summer monsoon variability and changes in monsoon strength.'Climate model projections(IPCC, 2001) also suggest more El Niño – like events in the tropical Pacific, increase in surface temperatures and decrease in the northern hemisphere snow cover. The Indian Monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon and its links with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, northern hemisphere surface temperature and Eurasian snow are well documented.In the light of the IPCC globalwarming projections on the Asian monsoon, the interannual and decadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall over India and its teleconnections have been examined by using observed data for the 131-year (1871–2001) period. While the interannual variations showyear-to-year random fluctuations, thedecadal variations reveal distinct alternate epochs of above and below normal rainfall. The epochs tend to last for about three decades. There is no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the epochal changes are affected by the global warming. Though the 1990s have been the warmest decade of the millennium(IPCC, 2001), the IMR variability has decreased drastically.Connections between the ENSO phenomenon, Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the Eurasian snow with IMR reveal that the correlations are not only weak but have changed signs in the early 1990s suggesting that the IMR has delinked not only with the Pacific but with the Northern Hemisphere/Eurasian continent also. The fact that temperature/snow relationships with IMR are weak further suggests that global warming need not be a cause for the recent ENSO-Monsoon weakening.Observed snow depth over theEurasian continent has been increasing, which could be a result of enhanced precipitation due to the global warming.     

一个耦合气候系统模式模拟的中全新世时期亚洲季风系统变化

本文分析了一个耦合模式FGOALS_g1.0对工业革命前气候(0ka)和中全新世时期(6ka)亚洲夏季风的模拟结果。在该研究中我们主要分析季风降水变率较大的区域,即东亚夏季风区(20°～45°N,110°～120°E)和印度夏季风区(10°～30°N,70°～80°E)。尽管耦合模式的普遍偏差依然存在,该模式反映出亚洲季风系统是海陆热力性质差异的结果,并较好地模拟出了0ka亚洲夏季风大尺度环流的特点和季节变化的特征。6ka和0ka比较分析的结果表明,6ka时期欧亚大陆增暖,海陆温度梯度加强; 印度夏季风降水从南亚大陆北移到 30°N 附近,位于青藏高原南侧的降水大值中心降水加强; 东亚季风区降水则表现为华北地区减少,长江流域和华南地区降水增加的特点。但合理地模拟季风爆发仍然是耦合气候系统模式的难点之一。
6ka时期亚洲夏季风变化是和大尺度季风环流的变化联系在一起的,而其根本原因是中全新世时期地球轨道参数变化所引起的太阳辐射变化,北半球季节循环的振幅加强。海陆热力性质的差异所导致海陆温差加大使得北半球的季风环流加强,印度夏季风高空东风在 20°～30°N 加强,低层赤道东风加强,跨赤道后的西南气流向北推移,从而使得印度夏季风降水雨带北移到 30°N 附近。东亚季风区的高低空温度场的配置使得副热带高空急流减弱,位置偏南,从而有利于华北地区的高空出现异常的辐合,中层为异常的辐散,抑制了季风降水的发展; 长江流域和华南地区则相反,季风降水降水加强。     

亚洲树轮稳定氧同位素研究进展

树轮稳定氧同位素作为一种高精度的古气候代用指标,在亚洲地区的发展起步晚进步快。树轮稳定氧同位素比率（δ¹⁸O）对区域气候信息有较强的记录能力,且与水汽循环关系密切,对于理解复杂的亚洲气候起着重要作用。亚洲地区树轮δ¹⁸O对温度的响应主要出现在高纬度地区,中低纬度树轮δ¹⁸O主要记录与水分（降水、相对湿度、PDSI等）有关的信号。对亚洲地区已发表的树轮δ¹⁸O与气候要素（温度、降水、相对湿度）的相关分析显著性统计显示,生长季气候对树轮δ¹⁸O至关重要,树轮δ¹⁸O 与温度的显著相关关系呈正相关,与降水和相对湿度的呈负相关,温度和降水通过降水δ¹⁸O影响树轮δ¹⁸O,但各自的信号强度存在区域差异,而相对湿度信号则广泛记录在不同区域不同树种之中。亚洲树轮稳定氧同位素研究集中于中低纬度地区,因而对大气水文循环的响应主要侧重于对亚洲夏季风和ENSO的研究,对季风降水的记录反映了季风活动的变化特征以及与之有关的环流信息;季节分辨率的树轮稳定氧同位素研究限于低纬热带亚热带区域,但对于理解区域气候和季风活动的年内变化、挖掘年轮不清晰树种的树轮学研究潜力具有重要的意义。     

Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.     

Preparedness and storm hazards in a global warming world: lessons from Southeast Asia

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 found an average increase in global surface temperature of 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005. There is general agreement in the literature that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in Southeast Asia will increase with global warming. In particular, the potential impact of associated storm hazards will render the densely populated countries in Southeast Asia vulnerable to such changes in precipitation events. One main adaptation strategy given such impending changes is preparedness. Using existing literature and historical meteorological data, this paper establishes that Southeast Asia is indeed experiencing storms of higher intensities and more frequently. Two case of extreme storm event in Southeast Asia, the extreme high rainfall event in December 2006 in Southern Johor and Typhoon Vamei, are presented to consider the implications of the increased storm activities due to global warming. These two examples also discuss the need for preparedness in adapting to the impact of global warming.     

Assessment of the Decadal Prediction Skill on Global Land Summer Monsoon Precipitation in the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

Global monsoon precipitation plays a crucial role in the local social economy and global large-scale circulation and energy cycle. Using the decadal prediction output for 1960-2015 from ENSEMBLES Stream 2, the decadal hindcast skill of climate models on global land monsoon precipitation and the potential source of predictability were examined in this paper. It is found that the decadal variation of global and southern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation is not well hindcasted by ENSEMBLES. However, the Northern Hemispheric land Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in hindcast is well predicted, including the observed downward trend from 1960 to the late 1970s and upward trend since the 1990s. The main deficiency is that the minimum NHSM precipitation occured in mid-1970s, which is 10-year earlier than the observation, leading to poor prediction of NHSM precipitation from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Mega-ENSO and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are the two main factored that modulate the decadal variation of NHSM precipitation. The result shows that the relationships of NHSM precipitation with mega-ENSO and AMO in ENSENBLES are higher than the observation. The climate models well predicted the increase from 1960 to the late 1970s and decrease trend since the 1990s of mega-ENSO and AMO. It is the primary source of the prediction skill on NHSM changes during the two periods. Although AMO is well predicted by ENSEMBLES (highest correlation coefficient with observation is 0.85), the prediction skill of mega-ENSO is limited, leading to poor performance in predicting NHSM precipitation from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Thus, improving the prediction of mega-ENSO can be seen as one important method of better decadal prediction of NHSM precipitation.     

Long-term changes in the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon over western India

This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000–2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase.     

Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation

There is a close relationship between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa). However, recent observations suggest a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship that may be linked to global warming. We report here an analysis of the ENSO-monsoon relationship within the framework of a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI-coupled general circulation model (GCM), MRI-CGCM2.2. An overall correlation between the June-July-August (JJA) Nino3.4 sea surface temperature and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is –0.39, with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with the modeled ENSO. The simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations, from –0.71 to +0.07, in moving 31-year windows. This modulation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship is associated with decadal variability of the climate system.     

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall—lessons from the Mid-Miocene

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3–4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.     

青藏高原气候变化的若干事实及其年际振荡的成因探讨

利用1961-2012年青藏高原88个气象台站逐月气温、降水以及温室气体等气候系统监测资料和CMIP5输出的未来气候变化情景数据,分析了近52年来青藏高原气候变化暖湿化的若干事实,揭示了其年际振荡与温室气体、高原加热场、高原季风、AO等气候系统因子的关系,预测了未来20~40年青藏高原可能的气候变化趋势。研究表明：近52年来青藏高原在总体保持气候变暖的趋势下自2006年以来出现了某些增暖趋于缓和的迹象,较全球变化滞后了8年左右;降水量的增加在青藏高原具有明显的普遍性和显著性,气候变湿较变暖具有一定的滞后性,降水量变化的5年短周期日趋不显著,而12年、25年较长周期逐渐明显且仍呈增多趋势。由于温室气体、气溶胶持续增加、高原夏季风趋强、ENSO事件和太阳辐射减少,青藏高原气候持续增暖但有所缓和;春季高原加热场增强、高原夏季风爆发提前且保持强劲,使得高原春、夏季和年降水量增加,而秋、冬季AO相对稳定少动,东亚大槽强度无明显变化,高原冬季风变化不甚显著,导致了高原秋、冬季降水量无明显变化。未来20~40年青藏高原仍有可能继续保持气温升高、降水增加趋势。     

近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述

随着中国气象局对近50年来逐日气象观测资料的释放,人们从不同的角度对中国平均气候和极端气候的分布特征有了更多的了解.从目前研究的结果来看,这些认识需要有一个集成,即需要有一个总体的归纳和解释.通过中国近40年来的温度极值和降水极值事件的分析认识到全球增暖和区域环流异常决定着气候极值事件的分布格局.与全球增暖相联系的是:我国微量降水在空间上表现为一致的减少趋势,我国北方寒潮事件显著减少,冷夜和冷日的减少与暖夜和暖日的增多并存,以及极端强降水有增多的趋势.与东亚季风气流和西风带气流异常对应的我国有效降水在区域分布上发生了显著变化,东部季风区中的"北涝南旱"从1970年代末转型为"南涝北旱",与华南的偏干一起形成了东部季风区降水从华南、长江到华北的"-、 、-"异常分布型,但华南在1991年出现了转湿的突变;东北和西北先后从1983年和1987年前后转为暖湿气候.极端温度和极端降水趋势的空间分布与平均温度和平均降水趋势的空间分布一致.     

全球气候变化与地质灾害响应分析

对全球气候变化对地质灾害的响应关系,尤其是对滑坡和泥石流灾害的响应关系进行了综述。工业化革命以来,特别是近几十年来全球气候发生着重要的变化,全球几乎所有地区都经历着升温过程。全球气候变化对极端天气事件(极端降雨、气温升高、强风和洪水灾害)的影响尤为强烈,并且增加了地质灾害的发生风险。其中,水循环和气温的变化是影响地质灾害发生的直接因素。气温上升会导致大气层含水量升高、冰川冻土退化、海平面上升、蒸发作用增强;水循环变化会导致降雨频率、降水周期、降水强度的改变。日益增加的极端天气与同岩土体相互作用,导致了不同类型地质灾害的发生,严重威胁着人类的生活起居。     

河西内陆河流域出山径流对气候转型的响应

对甘肃河西内陆河流域出山径流变化过程与趋势的研究表明,从20世纪80年代中后期开始,受西风环流降水的影响,祁连山区中、西部的黑河、疏勒河流域的气候环境发出了由增温变干转为变湿的讯号,具体表现为随着山区气温升高,降水量增加,出山径流相应增大.采用区域气候模式预测和水文统计模式的计算,亦同样证实出山径流有显著的增加趋势.但受季风影响的祁连山东部的石羊河流域则尚未出现这种转变,从20世纪50年代起,出山径流量持续下降,表明其气候环境仍向增温变干的方向发展.     

Trends and extreme value analysis of rainfall pattern over homogeneous monsoon regions of India

Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871–2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies.     

Pacific coral oxygen isotope and the tropospheric temperature gradient over the Asian monsoon region: a tool to reconstruct past Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Having recognized that it is the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient rather than the land–ocean surface temperature gradient that drives the Indian monsoon, a new mechanism of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monsoon teleconnection has been unveiled in which the ENSO influences the Indian monsoon by modifying the TT gradient over the region. Here we show that equatorial Pacific coralline oxygen isotopes reflect TT gradient variability over the Indian monsoon region and are strongly correlated to monsoon precipitation as well as to the length of the rainy season. Using these relationships we have been able to reconstruct past Indian monsoon rainfall variability of the first half of the 20th century in agreement with the instrumental record. Additionally, an older coral oxygen isotope record has been used to reconstruct seasonally resolved summer monsoon rainfall variability of the latter half of the 17th century, indicating that the average annual rainfall during this period was similar to that during the 20th century. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近千年东亚夏季风演变历史重建及与区域温湿变化关系的讨论

集成中国季风区石笋氧同位素记录的共同变化特征,初步建立了近千年10年平均的东亚夏季风演变序列。在10年尺度以上分析了东亚夏季风演变与其他气候要素变化之间的关系。主要结论有： 1)近千年来东亚夏季风演变可划分为中世纪时期(11～13世纪初期)的季风稍弱阶段,13世纪中后期至14世纪前半叶的季风较强时期,14世纪后半叶至17世纪的季风较弱阶段,自18世纪开始持续约200年的季风再次增强时期,以及20世纪初开始的季风逐渐减弱阶段。2)近千年来东亚大陆或北半球温度的变化虽然对东亚夏季风变化具有一定的影响,但东亚夏季风强度的变化并不总是取决于陆地温度的变化。3)近千年来东亚夏季风的强弱变化与降水变化在低频趋势上有良好的对应关系,在东亚夏季风增强的时期,中国东部降水较多,而在夏季风减弱时,中国东部降水趋于偏少。     

Recent trends of temperature and precipitation proxies in Saudi Arabia: implications for climate change

The objective of the present study was to reconstruct a short-term (12–14 years) trend of surface temperature and precipitation patterns using their surrogates as provided by satellite images for selected locations along the Red Sea mountains in Saudi Arabia. Time series land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite were temporally plotted to delineate the trend and the decadal rates of change of both parameters. Results showed that real climate change is reported in the study area during the study period. There is a net increasing in the surface temperatures by 0.45 to 1.2 °C/decade and a net decrease in annual rainfall between 2001 and 2014. Findings of the present study show that the region is under a warming of the climate and a declining of wetness, which coincide with the air temperature and rainfall trends obtained from meteorological stations.     

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical downscaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, downscaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and downscaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the midlatitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability.     

<Emphasis>H</Emphasis>ydrological variability of the <Emphasis>S</Emphasis>oummam watershed <Emphasis>(N</Emphasis>ortheastern <Emphasis>A</Emphasis>lgeria<Emphasis>)</Emphasis> and the possible links to climate fluctuations

The long-term variability of rainfall in the Soummam watershed (NE Algeria) has been analysed over the past 108 years using continuous wavelet method in order to identify the interannual modes controlling the rainfall variability. Statistical analyses of rainfall timeseries have shown its distribution following five periods of time, limited by a series of discontinuities around 1935, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The continuous wavelet transform have demonstrated different low frequency modes: 2–4, 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 years.The annual band is expanded during the full study period with some pics around 1905, 1920–1935 and 1960; it shows a negative long-term trend, in particular since the period 1970–1990 when a major change has been identified. Then, the relationships between climate patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the hydrological variability in the frequency domain have been investigated; they have shown a mean explained variance of 40 and 24 %, respectively. Such variances are less obvious for the annual mode and increase for the interannual frequencies. The coherence suffer from high perturbations since the period 1970–1990 when the NAO (SOI) shifts from negative (positive) phases to positive (negative) ones. Such anomalies are responsible for significant changes of rainfall variability, emphasising the global warming effects.