Forest protection and tenure status: The key role of indigenous peoples and protected areas in Panama

Using recent land cover maps, we used matching techniques to analyze forest cover and assess effectiveness in avoiding deforestation in three main land tenure regimes in Panama, namely protected areas, indigenous territories and non-protected areas. We found that the tenure status of protected areas and indigenous territories (including comarcas and claimed lands) explains a higher rate of success in avoided deforestation than other land tenure categories, when controlling for covariate variables such us distance to roads, distance to towns, slope, and elevation. In 2008 protected areas and indigenous territories had the highest percentage of forest cover and together they hosted 77% of Panama's total mature forest area. Our study shows the promises of matching techniques as a potential tool for demonstrating and quantifying conservation efforts. We therefore propose that matching could be integrated to methodological approaches allowing compensating forests’ protectors. Because conserving forest carbon stocks in forested areas of developing countries is an essential component of REDD+ and its future success, the discussion of our results is relevant to countries or jurisdictions with high forest cover and low deforestation rates.     

The role of protected areas and land tenure regimes on forest loss in Bolivia: Accounting for spatial spillovers

The conversion of tropical forests to croplands and grasslands is a major threat to global biodiversity, climate and local livelihoods and ecosystems. The enforcement of protected areas as well as the clarification and strengthening of collective and individual land property rights are key instruments to curb deforestation in the tropics. However, these instruments are territorial and can displace forest loss elsewhere. We investigate the effects of protected areas and various land tenure regimes on deforestation and possible spillover effects in Bolivia, a global tropical deforestation hotspot. We use a spatial Durbin model to assess and compare the direct and indirect effects of protected areas and different land tenure forms on forest loss in Bolivia from 2010 to 2017. We find that protected areas have a strong direct effect on reducing deforestation. Protected areas – which in Bolivia are all based on co-management schemes - also protect forests in adjacent areas, showing an indirect protective spillover effect. Indigenous lands however only have direct forest protection effects. Non-indigenous collective lands and small private lands, which are associated to Andean settlers, as well as non-titled lands, show a strong positive direct effect on deforestation. At the same time, there is some evidence that non-indigenous collective lands also encourage deforestation in adjacent areas, indicating the existence of spillovers. Interestingly, areas with high poverty rate tend to be less affected by deforestation whatever tenure form. Our study stresses the need to assess more systematically the direct and indirect effects of land tenure and of territorial governance instruments on land use changes.     

Land tenure and agricultural expansion in Latin America: The role of Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ forest rights

Agricultural expansion remains the most important proximate cause of tropical deforestation, while interactions between socio-economic, technological and institutional factors represent the fundamental drivers. Projected population increases could further raise the pressure on the remaining forests, unless agricultural intensification allows raising agricultural output without expanding agricultural areas. The purpose of this article is to understand the role of institutional factors in governing the intensification process towards the goal of preserving forests from agricultural pressures, with a focus on Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ rights to forests (as embedded in the various tenure regimes). In this paper we adopt an international dimension and analyse the process of agricultural expansion across eleven Latin American countries over the period 1990–2010 to assess whether, in a context of agricultural intensification, different land tenure regimes impact differently on the realization of land-sparing or Jevons paradox. The results, based on a number of multivariate statistical models that controls for socio-economic factors, strongly suggest that the formal recognition of Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ forest rights has played an important role in promoting land sparing or attenuating Jevons paradox.     

A global review of the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty

Secure property rights are widely understood as critical for socio-economic development and sustainable land management in forested areas. Policies and programs, ranging from devolution of specific resource rights to formal land titling, have therefore been implemented to strengthen forest tenure and property rights in countries around the world. Despite the prevalence and importance of these efforts, however, systematic understanding of their effects on poverty remains lacking. We address this gap by systematically reviewing evidence on the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty worldwide. We drew from a systematic map of evidence on forest-poverty links (Cheng et al., 2019) and used a population-intervention-comparator-outcome (PICO) framework to identify relevant studies. Our final dataset included 61 articles published from 2002 to 2016 comprising 91 case studies across 24 countries. Of these, only 11 articles (22 cases) used quasi-experimental methods to control for confounders. We find that almost all studied interventions (n = 88; 97%) focused on rights to access a forest area or withdraw resources from it. Relatively few studied interventions supported the more extensive property rights of exclusion (32%) and alienation (10%). Overall, reported impacts on both income/consumption and capital/assets dimensions of poverty were generally positive or mixed. Results from more robust quasi-experimental assessments showed greater variation, with case studies as likely to report negative as positive impacts on both poverty dimensions. We find tentative support for the economic theory that more secure property rights yield positive welfare effects. However, the paucity of evidence from more robust impact assessments constrains our ability to draw generalizable conclusions about the poverty impacts of different kinds of forest property rights interventions.     

Subnational institutions and power of landholders drive illegal deforestation in a major commodity production frontier

Deforestation is a main threat to the biosphere due to its contribution to biodiversity loss, carbon emissions, and land degradation. Most deforestation is illegal and continues unabated, representing around half of the total deforestation in the tropics and subtropics. Quantifying illegal deforestation is challenging, let alone assessing the social and institutional processes underlying its occurrence. We tackle this challenge by quantifying the relative influence of individual (i.e., landholders’ power, landholding size) and contextual (i.e., subnational institutions, agricultural suitability) factors on the type and size of illegal deforestation in the Argentine Dry Chaco, a major commodity production frontier and global deforestation hotspot. We build a Bayesian network fed with data of 244 illegal deforestation events, obtained from journalistic articles, grey literature, key informant interviews, and geospatial analyses. The results reveal that more powerful landholders were associated with larger illegal deforestation events. Policy simulations suggest that higher concentration of land in the hands of powerful landholders and more flexible subnational forest regulations would escalate illegal deforestation. This points to the need for a smart policy mix that integrates across economic, agricultural, and environmental sectors to halt illegal deforestation at commodity production frontiers. A land tenure reform can facilitate forest protection, while incentives to land-use diversification and the criminal prosecution of illegal deforestation are critical to shift landholder behavior towards more balanced production and conservation outcomes.     

Forty-year multi-scale land cover change and political ecology data reveal a dynamic and regenerative process of forests in Peruvian Indigenous Territories

This article explores deforestation and reforestation dynamics over 415,749 hectares of 25 titled Indigenous Community Lands (ICLs) in the Peruvian Amazon over forty years at three scales: total area, regions, and communities. We focus on ICLs as the territorial unit of analysis, as they are increasingly discussed regarding their importance for conservation. Additionally indigenous communities (ICs) are a too-marginalized group in the Amazon that merit more attention. Analyses of this kind are often short-term and use only large-scale Earth Observation methodologies. We use a multi-method approach linking remote sensing with ground verification, and qualitative historical political ecology work with ICs. We find that overall accumulated deforestation was low at 5%, but that when reforestation is considered, net deforestation was only 3.5%. At the community level deforestation and afforestation dynamics are complex, except for one period that indicates a macro state driver in the region. Results suggest inadequate accounting for forest regeneration in deforestation analyses and challenge the notion that presenting stakeholders with accumulated forest loss values is helpful in tropical areas where forests and people are dynamic. Furthermore, our work with communities highlights that categorizing them and their lands as pro-environment or not in general terms is unhelpful for determining fund flows to ICLs for environmental or development purposes.     

Trajectories of deforestation,coffee expansion and displacement of shifting cultivation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam

Production of commodities for global markets is an increasingly important factor of tropical deforestation, taking over smallholders subsistence farming. Measures to reduce deforestation and convert shifting cultivation systems towards permanent crops have recently been strengthened in several countries. But these changes have variable environmental and social impacts, including on ethnic minorities. In Vietnam, although a forest transition – i.e. shift from shrinking to expanding forest cover – occurred at the national scale, deforestation fronts and agricultural colonization for commodity crops – a.o. coffee – still dominated the Central Highlands plateaus. Previous studies suggested that the dominant land use changes in that region were on the one hand the acquisition and conversion of agricultural lands to perennial crops for external markets by capital-endowed Kinh households – the majority ethnic group in Vietnam – and on the other hand the corresponding displacement of poor households of ethnic minorities relying on shifting cultivation towards the forest margins. This study tested this hypothesis by using remote sensing to analyze land use and cover changes and deforestation trajectories in the coffee-growing area in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces over 2000–2010. Land use changes were linked with socioeconomic dynamics using secondary statistics and spatial modelling. Net deforestation reached ?0.31% y^?1 of the total area between 2000 and 2010. Deforestation was indeed mainly directly caused by shifting cultivation for annual crops, but this was partly driven indirectly by expansion of coffee and other perennial crops over agricultural lands. Displacement of shifting cultivation into the forest margins, pushed by market crops expansion, was the spatial manifestation of the marginalization of local ethnic minorities and poor migrants, pushed by capital-endowed migrants. This marginalization is a long-standing process rooted in the colonization and development strategy for the highlands followed since colonial times. Over the late 2000s, rapid deforestation was strongly reducing the benefits of national-scale forest recovery, and might shift the country back to net losses of natural forest. Implications for policies that may affect deforestation are discussed.     

Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics

Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992–2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase.     

Forest conservation effects of Brazil's zero deforestation cattle agreements undermined by leakage

Supply chain interventions, which include certification schemes and zero-deforestation commitments that aim to produce environmentally and socially beneficial outcomes, are increasingly common, but evidence of their efficacy is scarce. We quantified avoided deforestation from Brazil's zero-deforestation cattle agreements by exploiting variation in the policy's rollout and the acquisition of slaughterhouses by the agreements’ signatories from 2007 to 2015 in the Amazonian states of Mato Grosso and Pará. We found no average impact of the agreements on forest cover in the regions surrounding signatory slaughterhouses by the end of 2014. Our results show avoided deforestation of about 6% from the agreements on properties that enrolled early in the rural environmental land registry. However, forest loss increased commensurately on those properties that registered later, thus washing out the positive conservation effects from the early registrants. Our results also highlight that slaughterhouses bought plants in regions with higher deforestation both before and after the agreement, suggesting that companies are not avoiding these important hotspots. We conclude that the agreements have led to some avoided deforestation on registered properties, whose boundaries are transparent and publicly accessible, but that more robust reductions in deforestation will require additional action. The agreements could be made more effective by expanding monitoring to include all properties in the supply chain, as well as ensuring that all slaughterhouses monitor.     

LULUCF in the post-2012 regime: fixing the problems of the past?

One of the reasons why the Kyoto Protocol has been environmentally ineffective is the flaws in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting rules, including voluntary accounting for Article 3.4 activities, the adoption of a definition of forest management that allowed parties to preferentially include and exclude forest lands, and allowing parties with net emissions from LULUCF in 1990 to include deforestation emissions in their 1990 emissions base year. Three proposed amendments to the LULUCF rules for the post-2012 regime are discussed and analysed: (1) a force majeure rule, (2) a baseline-and-credit system for forest management and (3) an ‘emissions-to-atmosphere’ approach for harvested wood products. Although these proposals have the potential to significantly improve the accounting framework, there are still significant problems such as the failure to account for the biophysical effects of forest activities, uncertainties associated with the application of the forest management baseline-and-credit system and continuing optional coverage of Article 3.4 activities.     

Deforestation,biomass and carbon finance in Amazonia

Biomass dynamics in Amazonia are quantified and the value that carbon finance could deliver from slowing deforestation is assessed. Above-ground forest biomass in the Legal Amazon shrank from 90 Pg to 76 Pg between 1978 and 2004. An average decrease of 0.64 Pg (standard error 0.38 Pg) per year was estimated for primary and econdary vegetation. For an improved, spatially and temporally explicit estimation, a time series of remote-sensing results and a model of secondary forest area and age distribution was combined with a large-scale forest-growth model. The observed trend of biomass decline is continuous and defines a baseline that the avoidance of deforestation could be measured against. Based on scenario calculations, the emission reductions from slightly reduced deforestation rates could be valued in the range of €1 billion annually. Carbon finance for reducing emissions from deforestation (‘avoided deforestation’), which is being discussed as an additional mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, has the potential to alter the economic logic driving forest conversion.     

Forest tenure reform in the age of climate change: Lessons for REDD+

Numerous authors have stressed the importance of guaranteeing and protecting the tenure and human rights of indigenous and other forest-based communities under schemes for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD, or REDD+); and important international indigenous organizations have spoken out strongly against REDD+. This article examines two specific issues that present risks for local communities: rights to forests and rules for resource use. It draws on the findings of a study conducted by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) on forest tenure reforms in selected countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America from 2006 to 2008. The study underlines the numerous obstacles faced by communities after rights are won, in moving from statutory rights to their implementation and to access to benefits on the ground. It argues that there is currently little reason to expect better results from national policies under REDD+ without binding agreements to protect local rights.     

Conditions influencing the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in South America’s commodity frontiers

Reducing large-scale deforestation in commodity frontiers remains a key challenge for climate change mitigation and the conservation of biodiversity. Public and private anti-deforestation policies have been shown to effectively reduce forest loss, but the conditions under which such policies get adopted are rarely examined. Here we propose a set of conditions that we expect to be associated with the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in commodity frontiers. We then examine whether these conditions have influenced policy adoption in South America’s major soy-and-cattle frontiers: the Brazilian Amazon, the Cerrado, the Chaco, the Chiquitano, and Paraguay’s Atlantic Forest. By collating empirical data from diverse sources, including literature review, extensive expert interviews, and analysis of primary and secondary data, we show that the Cerrado, the Chaco, and the Chiquitano differ from the Brazilian Amazon in multiple ways that might have inhibited adoptions of effective anti-deforestation instruments. These conditions include: a higher importance of the agricultural sector within the respective countries, lower carbon stocks and species richness, higher prevalence of private land tenure, and higher baseline compliance with forest reserve regulations on private lands. We also observe that the adoption of the most effective private anti-deforestation instrument, commodity moratoria, may respond to similar conditions as those influencing the adoption of public instruments. Incentivizing public and private actors to adopt effective anti-deforestation policies in the Cerrado, Chaco, and the Chiquitano will likely be more challenging than it has been in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Community forest management in Indonesia: Avoided deforestation in the context of anthropogenic and climate complexities

Community forest management has been identified as a win-win option for reducing deforestation while improving the welfare of rural communities in developing countries. Despite considerable investment in community forestry globally, systematic evaluations of the impact of these policies at appropriate scales are lacking. We assessed the extent to which deforestation has been avoided as a result of the Indonesian government’s community forestry scheme, Hutan Desa (Village Forest). We used annual data on deforestation rates between 2012 and 2016 from two rapidly developing islands: Sumatra and Kalimantan. The total area of Hutan Desa increased from 750 km² in 2012 to 2500 km² in 2016. We applied a spatial matching approach to account for biophysical variables affecting deforestation and Hutan Desa selection criteria. Performance was assessed relative to a counterfactual likelihood of deforestation in the absence of Hutan Desa tenure. We found that Hutan Desa management has successfully achieved avoided deforestation overall, but performance has been increasingly variable through time. Hutan Desa performance was influenced by anthropogenic and climatic factors, as well as land use history. Hutan Desa allocated on watershed protection forest or limited production forest typically led to a less avoided deforestation regardless of location. Conversely, Hutan Desa granted on permanent or convertible production forest had variable performance across different years and locations. The amount of rainfall during the dry season in any given year was an important climatic factor influencing performance. Extremely dry conditions during drought years pose additional challenges to Hutan Desa management, particularly on peatland, due to increased vulnerability to fire outbreaks. This study demonstrates how the performance of Hutan Desa in avoiding deforestation is fundamentally affected by biophysical and anthropogenic circumstances over time and space. Our study improves understanding on where and when the policy is most effective with respect to deforestation, and helps identify opportunities to improve policy implementation. This provides an important first step towards evaluating the overall effectiveness of this policy in achieving both social and environmental goals.     

Indigenous Lands with secure land-tenure can reduce forest-loss in deforestation hotspots

Due to human activities, most natural ecosystems of the world have disappeared and the rest are threatened. At a global scale, 40% of the remaining forests occur in Indigenous Peoples Lands (IPL). While several studies show that IPL contribute to conserve forest-cover and halt forest-loss, other studies have found opposite results. The differing results on the role of IPL in forest conservation and loss are probably because of the effect of other variables, e.g. land tenure security. In this study, we addressed the role of IPL in forest conservation and loss, differentiating IPL with land-tenure security (IPL-S) and insecurity (IPL-I). We worked in a deforestation hotspot, the South American Dry Chaco region. First, we mapped IPL in the Dry Chaco. Then, covering the period 2000–2019, we measured forest cover and loss in IPL-S, IPL-I and in areas that are not Indigenous (non-IPL). Finally, we used a matching estimators method to statistically evaluate if IPL-S and IPL-I halt forest loss. To avoid bias, we accounted for the effect of variables such as Country (Argentina/Bolivia/Paraguay), Protected Area (yes/no), etc. We created the first map of IPL for the Dry Chaco, and found that at least 44% of the remaining forests are in IPL, and 67% of them are IPL-I. Our results also showed that IPL-S work as deforestation barriers. Inside PA, the effect of IPL-S was not always significant, probably because PA were already reducing forest loss. The effect of IPL-I on halting forest-loss was variable. We conclude that land-tenure security is key for IPL to reduce forest-loss, adding evidence on the importance of securing land-tenure rights of Indigenous communities for conservation purposes. At a regional scale, a large proportion of the remaining forests are Indigenous and conservation initiatives should be co-developed with locals, respecting their rights, needs and cosmovisions.     

Land tenure and REDD+: The good,the bad and the ugly

A number of international donors, national governments and project proponents have begun to lay the groundwork for REDD+, but tenure insecurity – including the potential risks of land grabbing by outsiders and loss of local user rights to forests and forest land – is one of the main reasons that many indigenous and other local peoples have publicly opposed it. Under what conditions is REDD+ a threat to local rights, and under what conditions does it present an opportunity? This article explores these issues based on available data from a global comparative study on REDD+, led by the Center for International Forestry Research, which is studying national policies and processes in 12 countries and 23 REDD+ projects in 6 countries. The article analyses how tenure concerns are being addressed at both national and project level in emerging REDD+ programs. The findings suggest that in most cases REDD+ has clearly provided some new opportunities for securing local tenure rights, but that piecemeal interventions by project proponents at the local level are insufficient in the absence of broader, national programs for land tenure reform. The potential for substantial changes in the status quo appear unlikely, though Brazil – the only one with such a national land tenure reform program – offers useful insights. Land tenure reform – the recognition of customary rights in particular – and a serious commitment to REDD+ both challenge the deep-rooted economic and political interests of ‘business as usual’.     

The carbon cost of agricultural production in the global land rush

Increases in the number of large-scale land transactions (LSLTs), commonly known as ‘land grabbing’ or ‘global land rush,’ have occurred throughout the lower- and middle-income world over the past two decades. Despite substantial and continuing concerns about the negative socio-environmental impacts of LSLTs, trade-off analysis on boosting crop yield and minimizing climate-related effects remains limited. Our study makes use of a global dataset on LSLTs for agricultural production to estimate potential carbon emissions based on different scenarios of land cover change and fertilizer use, as well as potential value of agricultural production on transacted land. We show that, if fully implemented on ∼ 38 M ha of transacted land, 2.51 GtC will be emitted during land conversion, with another 24.2 MtC/year emitted from fertilizer use, assuming farming technology of investors’ origin is adopted on transacted land. Comparison of different combinations of forest protection policies and agricultural intensification levels reveals that enforcing strict deforestation regulation while promoting fertilizer use rate improves the carbon efficiency of agricultural production. Additionally, positive spillovers of investors’ farming technology on existing arable lands of host countries can potentially double their crop yield. Our analyses thus suggest that fostering agricultural intensification and technology spillovers under strict regulation on land allocation to investors to protect forests would allow for boosting agricultural yield while minimizing carbon emissions.     

Deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the conservation implications of an internationally-engaged Myanmar

Myanmar is a country of huge biodiversity importance that is undergoing major political change, bringing with it new international engagement. This includes access to international markets, which will likely spur investment in export-oriented agriculture, leading to increased pressures on already threatened ecosystems. This scenario is illustrated in the Ayeyarwady Delta, the country's agricultural heartland sustaining high deforestation rates. Using the Delta as a model system, we use an integrated approach to inquire about whether and how imminent agricultural reforms associated with an internationally-engaged Myanmar could introduce new actors and incentives to invest in agricultural expansion that could affect deforestation rates. We use a novel remote sensing analysis to quantify deforestation rates for the Delta from 1978 to 2011, develop business-as-usual deforestation scenarios, and contextualize those results with an analysis of contemporary policy changes within Myanmar that are expected to alter the principal drivers of land-cover change. We show that mangrove systems of Myanmar are under greater threat than previously recognized, and that agriculture has been the principle driver of deforestation on the Delta. The centrality of agriculture to the Myanmar economy indicates that emerging policies are likely to tip the scales towards agricultural expansion, agro-industrial investment and potentially greater rates of deforestation due to the introduction of well-funded investors, insufficient land tenure agreements, and low governance effectiveness. The broad national challenge is to initiate environmental governance reforms (including safeguards) in the face of significant pressures for land grabbing and opportunistic resource extraction.     

Rights to carbon and payments for services rendered under REDD+: Options for the case of Mexico

Mexico is relatively advanced in its preparation for international policy on Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) and has many of the pre-conditions needed to support a community approach in the implementation of a national REDD+ programme, particularly as regards tenure of forests and experience with community forest management and PES schemes, although these conditions do not pertain everywhere. One critical issue that is yet to be resolved concerns rights to carbon credits and distribution of the financial benefits flowing from REDD+. We demonstrate that attribution of carbon credits from reduced deforestation and degradation at the community level is virtually impossible from a technical viewpoint, since these credits are counterfactual. Payments based on assessment of performance of each community in terms of such reductions would moreover be inequitable and inefficient. Flat rate payments in return for agreed improvements in management are likely to be more motivating and much easier to administer. However, increases in carbon stock (forest enhancement) can be physically measured on site, and could be more easily attributed to each individual community. We therefore propose a system in which reduced deforestation and degradation are considered environmental services, with credits accruing to national government. The financial value of the credits may be used to finance flat rate payments to communities who agree to implement improved management. On the other hand, credits for forest enhancement, which reflect measurable increases in carbon in the communities’ trees, would be considered environmental goods. These should be considered the direct property of the owners of the forest (in the same sense as wood or poles) and it would be possible for communities to sell these credits themselves. We acknowledge however that many other problems face implementation of REDD+ in Mexico, and provide a number of important examples.     

Scaling smallholder tree cover restoration across the tropics

Restoring tree cover in tropical countries has the potential to benefit millions of smallholders through improvements in income and environmental services. However, despite their dominant landholding shares in many countries, smallholders’ role in restoration has not been addressed in prior global or pan-tropical restoration studies. We fill this lacuna by using global spatial data on trees and people, national indicators of enabling conditions, and micro-level expert information. We find that by 2050, low-cost restoration is feasible within 280, 200, and 60 million hectares of tropical croplands, pasturelands, and degraded forestlands, respectively. Such restoration could affect 210 million people in croplands, 59 million people in pasturelands and 22 million people in degraded forestlands. This predominance of low-cost restoration opportunity in populated agricultural lands has not been revealed by prior analyses of tree cover restoration potential. In countries with low-cost tropical restoration potential, smallholdings comprise a significant proportion of agricultural lands in Asia (∼76 %) and Africa (∼60 %) but not the Americas (∼3%). Thus, while the Americas account for approximately half of 21st century tropical deforestation, smallholder-based reforestation may play a larger role in efforts to reverse recent forest loss in Asia and Africa than in the Americas. Furthermore, our analyses show that countries with low-cost restoration potential largely lack policy commitments or smallholder supportive institutional and market conditions. Discussions among practitioners and researchers suggest that four principles – partnering with farmers and prioritizing their preferences, reducing uncertainty, strengthening markets, and mobilizing innovative financing – can help scale smallholder-driven restoration in the face of these challenges.