POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SENSITIVITY OF AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES: THE BASIN AND RANGE,AMERICAN SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO

Variability and unpredictability are characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems, hydrological patterns and climate of the largely dryland region that encompasses the Basin and Range, American Southwest and western Mexico. Neither hydrological nor climatological models for the region are sufficiently developed to describe the magnitude or direction of change in response to increased carbon dioxide; thus, an attempt to predict specific responses of aquatic ecosystems is premature. Instead, we focus on the sensitivity of rivers, streams, springs, wetlands, reservoirs, and lakes of the region to potential changes in climate, especially those inducing a change in hydrological patterns such as amount, timing and predictability of stream flow. The major sensitivities of aquatic ecosystems are their permanence and even existence in the face of potential reduced net basin supply of water, stability of geomorphological structure and riparian ecotones with alterations in disturbance regimes, and water quality changes resulting from a modified water balance. In all of these respects, aquatic ecosystems of the region are also sensitive to the extensive modifications imposed by human use of water resources, which underscores the difficulty of separating this type of anthropogenic change from climate change. We advocate a focus in future research on reconstruction and analysis of past climates and associated ecosystem characteristics, long-term studies to discriminate directional change vs. year to year variability (including evidence of aquatic ecosystem responses or sensitivity to extremes), and studies of ecosystems affected by human activity. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From fluvial dynamics to eco-fluvial dynamics

Sediment plays a very important role in the functioning of river ecosystems. It is the basic substance for the survival of benthic animals and aquatic plants. On the other hand, the growth of biofilms and bio-disturbance of benthos affect the sediment transport characteristics. With the increasing attention to protect aquatic ecosystems, the importance of habitats has become increasingly researched. The need to study the interactions among sediment, flow, riverbed deformation, and aquatic ecosystems naturally leads to the proposed discipline of eco-fluvial dynamics. In this paper, the basic concept and main research content of eco-fluvial dynamics is introduced with the Yarlung Tsangpo River as the research example. This case study is an example of an aquatic ecosystem in an ever-changing environment because of the effects of climate change. The results of analysis of eco-fluvial dynamics will provide a scientific basis for decision support for the government.     

Advances in environmental behaviors and effects of dissolved organic matter in aquatic ecosystems

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a group of compounds that have complex chemical structures and multiple interactions with their surrounding materials. More than one trillion tons of DOM are stocked in the world’s aquatic ecosystems. DOM is a very important part of aquatic ecosystem productivity and plays a crucial role in global carbon cycling. DOM has rich environmental behaviors and effects such as influencing the bioavailability of contaminants, serving as an important inducer of reactive oxygen species (ROS), and protecting aquatic organisms from the harm of dangerous ultraviolet radiation. There have been many systematic studies on the composition, structure, and sources of DOM because such studies are much easier to conduct than studies on the environmental behaviors and effects of DOM. Due to many factors, the research systems of DOM’s environmental behaviors and effects are still being developed and have become a hotspot of environmental science. This review paper focuses on some critical progress, problems, and trends of DOM’s environmental behaviors and effects in aquatic ecosystems, including mutual exchange mechanisms between DOM and particulate organic matter (POM) with influencing factors, photochemical behaviors of DOM especially inducing ROS, binding interactions between DOM and anthropogenic organic contaminants (AOC), interactions between DOM and microorganisms, effects of DOM on pollutants’ bioavailability, ecotoxicity, and ecological risks. Hopefully, this paper will contribute to a more systematic understanding of the DOM environmental behaviors and effects and to promoting further relevant studies.     

杂食性鱼类对浅水水体底栖—浮游生境耦合作用的影响:微综述

浅水水体存在着强烈的底栖-浮游生境耦合作用,耦合的结果决定着水生态系统关键特征.在缺少大型水生植物的浅水系统中,底栖藻类和浮游藻类对光照和营养盐的竞争是底栖-浮游生境耦合最为重要的生态过程之一,但该过程受到杂食性鱼类的影响.本文以浅水水体的底栖-浮游生境耦合作用为切入点,综述了杂食性鱼类对浅水水体底栖-浮游生境耦合作用的影响过程及机理.一般而言,杂食性鱼类有利于提高水层营养盐浓度,促进浮游藻类生长,降低水体透明度,不利于底栖藻类竞争,从而加速水体富营养化.但不同种类的杂食性鱼类(如底栖杂食性鱼类、偏植物性饵料的杂食性鱼类、偏动物性饵料的杂食性鱼类以及小型杂食性鱼类)因食性差异,对底栖-浮游生境耦合的影响机理不同,产生的生态环境效应各异;即便同一种杂食性鱼类也可因发育阶段不同对底栖-浮游生境耦合产生不同的影响.在人类活动、全球变暖以及富营养化等多重因子胁迫下杂食性鱼类在鱼类群落结构中的比例上升,因此,杂食性鱼类对水生态环境产生的影响深远、复杂,值得持续关注.     

Colloid transport and distribution in the hyporheic zone

Colloids moving from the stream into the hyporheic zone may have a negative impact on aquatic ecosystems as they are potential contaminants or carriers of contaminants. Moreover, retained colloids in the hyporheic zone could not only reduce the exchange flux between the stream and streambed but also change the conditions of the bed, affecting the habitats for aquatic organisms. Previous studies focused on the exchange flux across the sediment–water interface, but the colloid transport processes and distribution of retained colloids in the streambed have received little attention. We conducted experiments within a laboratory flume to examine these processes in a streambed driven by bedform‐induced hyporheic flow. Retained colloids measured in the bed at the end of the experiments revealed colloid retention mainly in the shallow layer of hyporheic zone (0–5 cm below the interface). The results demonstrated significant effects of particle trapping and settling on the colloid transport and distribution in the streambed. Retention leads to the formation of a colloid‐filled shallow layer in the bed. Particle paths based on model simulations showed that colloid settling in pore water modifies the direction of colloid transport and allows the colloid particles to move more deeply in the bed.     

The status of wetlands and the predicted effects of global climate change: the situation in Australia

The condition of many wetlands across Australia has deteriorated due to increased water regulation and the expansion and intensification of agriculture and increased urban and industrial expansion. Despite this situation, a comprehensive overview of the distribution and condition of wetlands across Australia is not available. Regional analyses exist and several exemplary mapping and monitoring exercises have been maintained to complement the more general information sets. It is expected that global climate change will exacerbate the pressures on inland wetlands, while sea level rises will adversely affect coastal wetlands. It is also expected that the exacerbation of these pressures will increase the potential for near-irreversible changes in the ecological state of some wetlands. Concerted institutional responses to such pressures have in the past proven difficult to sustain, although there is some evidence that a more balanced approach to water use and agriculture is being developed with the provision of increasing funds to purchase water for environmental flows being one example. We identify examples from around Australia that illustrate the impacts on wetlands of long-term climate change from palaeoecological records (south-eastern Australia); water allocation (Murray-Darling Basin); dryland salinisation (south-western Australia); and coastal salinisation (northern Australia). These are provided to illustrate both the extent of change in wetlands and the complexity of differentiating the specific effects of climate change. An appraisal of the main policy responses by government to climate change is provided as a basis for further considering the opportunities for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Modeling the impact of climate change on sediment transport and morphology in coupled watershed-coast systems:A case study using an integrated approach

Climate change is an issue of major concern nowadays.Its impact on the natural and human environment is studied intensively,as the expected shift in climate will be significant in the next few decades.Recent experience shows that the effects will be critical in coastal areas,resulting in erosion and inundation phenomena worldwide.In addition to that,coastal areas are subject to ＂pressures＂ from upstream watersheds in terms of water quality and sediment transport.The present paper studies the impact of climate change on sediment transport and morphology in the aforementioned coupled system.The study regards a sandy coast and its upstream watershed in Chalkidiki,North Greece;it is based on：（a）an integrated approach for the quantitative correlation of the two through numerical modeling,developed by the authors,and（b）a calibrated application of the relevant models Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT）and PELNCON-M,applied to the watershed and the coastal zone,respectively.The examined climate change scenarios focus on a shift of the rainfall distribution towards fewer and more extreme rainfall events,and an increased frequency of occurrence of extreme wave events.Results indicate the significance of climatic pressures in wide-scale sediment dynamics,and are deemed to provide a useful perspective for researchers and policy planners involved in the study of coastal morphology evolution in a changing climate.     

Interactive effects of environmental variability and human impacts on the long-term dynamics of an Amazonian floodplain lake and a South Atlantic coastal lagoon

Human activities are exposing freshwater ecosystems to a wide range of stressors, whose direct and indirect effects can be alleviated or exacerbated through interactive effects with dynamic environmental drivers. This study used long-term data from two Neotropical lacustrine freshwater systems (Batata Lake, an Amazonian floodplain lake and Imboassica lagoon, an Atlantic coastal lagoon) subjected to different kinds of environmental fluctuations (i.e., flood pulse and sandbar opening) and anthropogenic impacts (i.e., siltation and eutrophication). Our objective was to determine whether the effects of human perturbations are contingent on modifications of important biotic and abiotic characteristics through environmental variability. For both ecosystems, environmental variability consistently interacted with anthropogenic perturbations to alter most of the variables analyzed, such as nutrient dynamics, chlorophyll-a concentration, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate species richness, and temporal community stability, which indicates that interactive effects between environmental variability and anthropogenic perturbations may impact a myriad of ecosystem properties. Furthermore, the nature of these interactive effects was highly dependent on the variable considered and on the ecosystem analyzed. For example, at Imboassica lagoon, sandbar openings interacted synergistically with trophic state to increase the phosphorus concentration in the water column. At Batata Lake, flooding generally alleviated the negative effects of siltation on species richness by both diluting inorganic suspended material concentration and by promoting local recruitment from the regional species pool. Such results indicate that our ability to understand and predict the outcome of anthropogenic impacts on inland aquatic systems can be hampered if we consider human stressors as “static” phenomena disconnected from dynamic interactions with major local environmental drivers.     

On the potential for climate change impacts on marine anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic regions

Current predictions as to the impacts of climate change in general and Arctic climate change in particular are such that a wide range of processes relevant to Arctic contaminants are potentially vulnerable. Of these, radioactive contaminants and the processes that govern their transport and fate may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a changing Arctic climate. This paper explores the potential changes in the physical system of the Arctic climate system as they are deducible from present day knowledge and model projections. As a contribution to a better preparedness regarding Arctic marine contamination with radioactivity we present and discuss how a changing marine physical environment may play a role in altering the current understanding pertaining to behavior of contaminant radionuclides in the marine environment of the Arctic region.     

Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km²) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.     

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MITIGATION OF SEDIMENTATION HAZARDS DOWNSTREAM FROM RESERVOIRS

1 INTRODUCTION Increasing attention is being given to sedimentation hazards downstream from reservoirs as dams built during the past century accumulate progressively greater volumes of sediment. The sediment storage both decreases reservoir capacity and operating efficiency of the dam, and creates a 搒ediment-shadow?downstream where sediment-starved flows commonly erode channel boundaries and create long-term channel instabilities. Numerous studies have documented downstream channel change…     

The impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle:A review

The increased frequency of climate extremes in recent years has profoundly affected terrestrial ecosystem functions and the welfare of human society. The carbon cycle is a key process of terrestrial ecosystem changes. Therefore, a better understanding and assessment of the impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle could provide an important scientific basis to facilitate the mitigation and adaption of our society to climate change. In this paper, we systematically review the impacts of climate extremes(e.g. drought, extreme precipitation, extreme hot and extreme cold) on terrestrial ecosystems and their mechanisms. Existing studies have suggested that drought is one of the most important stressors on the terrestrial carbon sink, and that it can inhibit both ecosystem productivity and respiration. Because ecosystem productivity is usually more sensitive to drought than respiration, drought can significantly reduce the strength of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks and even turn them into carbon sources. Large inter-model variations have been found in the simulations of drought-induced changes in the carbon cycle, suggesting the existence of a large gap in current understanding of the mechanisms behind the responses of ecosystem carbon balance to drought, especially for tropical vegetation. The effects of extreme precipitation on the carbon cycle vary across different regions. In general, extreme precipitation enhances carbon accumulation in arid ecosystems, but restrains carbon sequestration in moist ecosystems. However, current knowledge on the indirect effects of extreme precipitation on the carbon cycle through regulating processes such as soil carbon lateral transportation and nutrient loss is still limited. This knowledge gap has caused large uncertainties in assessing the total carbon cycle impact of extreme precipitation. Extreme hot and extreme cold can affect the terrestrial carbon cycle through various ecosystem processes. Note that the severity of such climate extremes depends greatly on their timing, which needs to be investigated thoroughly in future studies. In light of current knowledge and gaps in the understanding of how extreme climates affect the terrestrial carbon cycle, we strongly recommend that future studies should place more attention on the long-term impacts and on the driving mechanisms at different time scales.Studies based on multi-source data, methods and across multiple spatial-temporal scales, are also necessary to better characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate extremes.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Climate change and the oceans – What does the future hold?

The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO₂ is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality modelling in small Slovenian Mediterranean catchment – lesson for policy and decision makers

The study aims to address the long‐term impacts of six different downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCM) climate models on the quantity (river flow) and quality (sediment load, total nitrogen load and total phosphorus load) state of surface waters in the river Reka catchment, in the northern Mediterranean. Mediterranean areas are – due to high population density, favourable natural conditions for agriculture, limited water resources, diverse ecosystems biodiversity and expected climate change impacts – a global hotspot in climate research. Additionally, the study area lies on the border with the alpine climate zone, with a strong orographic effect on weather patterns. The location, and a wide range of studied parameters, provides an interesting insight into how various emerging climate change models may impact the status of surface waters and procedures for the governance of water resources. The study contributes to the knowledge and understanding of the climate change impact on the local catchment level, using the ensemble of the RCMs. It opens discussion about the impact of RCM selection on modelling climate changes with catchment models like Soil and Water Assessment Tool. This article also questions the usability of the results for the policy and decision makers in relation to the implementation of the results into short or long‐term water strategies or water/river management plans. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Salinity‐induced increase of the hydraulic conductivity in the hyporheic zone of coastal wetlands

In coastal zones globally, salinization is rapidly taking place due to the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, altered hydrology, and climate change. Although increased salinity levels are known to have a great impact on both biogeochemical and hydrological processes in aquatic sediments, only few studies have included both types of processes and their potential interactions. In the present paper, we used a controlled 3‐year experimental mesocosm approach to test salinity induced interactions and discuss mechanisms explaining the observed hydrological changes. Surface water salinity was experimentally increased from 14 to 140 mmol Cl per L (0.9 and 9 PSU) by adding sea salt which increased pore water salinity but also increased sulfate reduction rates, leading to higher sulfide, and lower methane concentrations. By analyzing slug test data with different slug test analysis methods, we were able to show that hydraulic conductivity of the hyporheic zone increased 2.8 times by salinization. Based on our hydrological and biogeochemical measurements, we conclude that the combination of pore dilation and decreased methane production rates were major controls on the observed increase in hydraulic conductivity. The slug test analysis method comparison allowed to conclude that the adjusted Bouwer and Rice method results in the most reliable estimate of the hydraulic conductivity for hyporheic zones. Our work shows that both physical and biogeochemical processes are vital to explain and predict hydrological changes related to the salinization of hyporheic zones in coastal wetlands and provides a robust methodological approach for doing so.     

Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact

It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than increased wind speeds.     

Climate change impact on Caspian Sea wave conditions in the Noshahr Port

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.