Forecasts in urban transportation planning: Uses,methods, and dilemmas

Legislation and regulation require cities to prepare forecasts of patronage and J. cost when they compete for federal funds with which to build urban rapid transit systems. Experience shows that these forecasts routinely overestimate patronage and underestimate costs. The explanation for this phenomenon is to be found not in technical shortcomings in the forecasting methods, but in the fact that the forecasts are critically dependent on assumptions of key parameters. Assumptions are chosen to produce forecasts which justify projects favored on the basis of local politics. In an environment in which competition for funds is vigorous, effective advocacy becomes more important than objectivity in the use of forecasting methods. This paper reviews forecasting models widely used by transportation consultants, and shows how the models are manipulated in order to promote systems which have been chosen on the basis of political criteria.     

将适应气候变化纳入国土空间规划：进展、困境与思路

空间规划是适应气候变化的重要政策工具之一,将适应气候变化目标纳入空间规划已经成为国际主流政策。中国适应气候变化的空间规划仍面临诸多问题和挑战,包括气候适应目标和理念薄弱、气候变化风险评估与空间规划尺度不匹配、适应和减缓策略的协同机制欠缺、技术标准和法律法规不完善等。文章结合国家适应气候变化战略和国土空间规划体系重构的目标要求,研究提出适应气候变化导向的国土空间规划框架体系和技术思路,以及将适应气候变化纳入空间规划编制审批、技术标准、实施监督以及法规政策等各个环节的思路与建议,以期通过空间规划的编制与监督实施促进适应气候变化目标的实现。     

An investigation of urban heat island intensity (UHII) as an indicator of urban heating

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of urban heat island intensity (UHII) as an indicator of urban heating. The diurnal patterns of air and surface-temperature based UHII and variations in urban and rural area heating were analyzed and discussed. The detailed air-temperature based UHII patterns were determined in one urban and four suburban areas of Hong Kong. UHII was determined as spatially-averaged air-temperature difference between an urban/suburban area and its surrounding rural area. Additionally, reported air and surface-temperature based UHII patterns were integrated in the discussion to carry out a comprehensive analysis. The urban and rural area heating variations (i.e., the diurnal variations in net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and heat stored by an area) were examined in the light of UHII patterns to validate UHII as an indicator for urban heating. It is noted that the air-temperature based UHIIs were higher and positive in the night-time but lower and negative during the daytime. On the other hand, most of the surface-temperature based UHIIs, investigated through satellite data were positive during both the daytime and night-time. It is revealed that UHII can well reflect urban heating during night-time and early morning. However, the lower and negative UHII during solar peak time (daytime when solar radiation is the dominant source of heating) has seemingly not been representing urban heating.     

Assessment of ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) near major roads in urban Nanjing, China

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are a major component of atmospheric pollutants in Nanjing, a large city in the east of China. Accordingly, 12-h diurnal monitoring for ten consecutive days was performed adjacent to major roads in five districts, ca.1.5 m above ground level, in April, July and October 2006, and January 2007. The most numerous species of VOCs (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, o-xylene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, tetrachloromethane, trichloroethane and tetrachloroethane) were selected as the target pollutants for this field study of atmospheric distribution. The eleven VOCs were mostly found in gas phase due to their high vapor pressures. Gas-phase concentrations ranged between 0.6 and 67.9 μg m^− 3. Simultaneously, the levels of those VOCs measured near major roads were associated slightly with their regional background level. For all these areas, as expected, the high traffic area was the highest in terms of concentration. A positive correlation was also found between the VOC levels and traffic density. Our studies also provided VOC distribution, and vertical/horizontal profiles. The results show that traffic-related exposure to VOCs in major road microenvironments is higher than elsewhere and poses a potential threat to pedestrians, commuters, and traffic-exposed workers.     

Evaluation of the vegetated urban canopy model (VUCM) and its impacts on urban boundary layer simulation

The vegetated urban canopy model (VUCM) is implemented in a meteorological model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), for urban atmospheric modeling. The VUCM includes various urban physical processes such as in-canyon radiative transfer, turbulent energy exchanges, substrate heat conduction, and in-canyon momentum drag. The coupled model RAMS/VUCM is evaluated and then used to examine its impacts on the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the urban boundary layer (UBL) in the Seoul metropolitan area. The spatial pattern of the nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) in Seoul is quite well simulated by the RAMS/VUCM. A statistical evaluation of 2-m air temperature reveals a significant improvement in model performance, especially in the nighttime. The RAMS/VUCM simulates the diurnal variations of surface energy balance fluxes realistically. This contributes to a reasonable UBL formation. A weakly unstable UBL is formed in the nighttime with UBL heights of about 100–200 m. When urban surfaces are represented in the RAMS using a land surface model of the Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Feedback (LEAF), the RAMS/LEAF produces strong cold biases and thus fails to simulate UHI formation. This is due to the poor representation or absence of important urban physical processes in the RAMS/LEAF. This study implies that urban physical processes should be included in numerical models in order to reasonably simulate meteorology and air quality in urban areas and that the VUCM is one of the promising urban canopy models.     

Rainfall intensity patterns derived from the urban network of Barcelona (NE Spain)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - An analysis of the normalised rainfall intensity curves in Barcelona (NE Spain) has been undertaken from 41 selected rain rate episodes recorded by an urban...     

Development of a new wavelet-based hybrid model to forecast multi-scalar SPEI drought index (case study: Zanjan city,Iran)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Drought forecasting plays a vital role in managing drought and reducing its effects on agricultural systems and water resources. In the present study, three...     

北京智能网格温度客观预报方法(BJTM)及预报效果检验

基于欧洲中心中期天气预报(ECMWF)精细化数值预报模式产品资料,采用一元线性回归以及克里金插值,发展了北京地区智能网格温度客观预报方法(Beijing intelligent grid temperature objective prediction method,BJTM),并对2017年1—12月北京地区55个考核站进行检验。结果表明,BJTM对ECMWF细网格模式的温度预报订正能力有显著提升,日最高、最低气温预报准确率分别提高25.4%和11.2%。2018年1—6月的业务运行结果也表明BJTM预报产品的预报结果优于同期ECMWF模式、中央台指导预报及预报员主观预报产品。BJTM可以有效提升北京地区温度预报的精细化能力和水平,有较好的业务应用价值。     

Common but differentiated convergence (CDC): a new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy

Abstract

This article describes a new concept for an international climate regime for differentiation of future commitments: the ‘common but differentiated convergence’ approach (CDC). Under CDC, Annex-I countries' per-capita emission allowances converge within a convergence period to a low level. Individual non-Annex-I countries' allowances converge to the same level also within the same period (‘common convergence’), but starting when their per-capita emissions are a certain percentage above global average (‘differentiated’). Until then they may voluntarily take on ‘positively binding’ targets. This approach eliminates two concerns often voiced in relation to gradually converging per-capita emissions: (i) advanced developing countries have their commitment to reduce emissions delayed and their targets are not the same as Annex-I countries with equal per-capita emissions; (ii) CDC does not provide excess emission allowances to the least developing countries. Under CDC, stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 and 650 ppm CO₂-equivalent can be reached with participation at roughly 0% and 50% above global average and convergence to around 3 and 4.5 tCO₂-eq/cap within 40 years. Even if the CDC approach is not implemented in its entirety, it is possible that the step-by-step decisions on the international climate regime can be guided by the principles provided in the CDC approach.     

Nocturnal urban heat island in Lisbon (Portugal): main features and modelling attempts

Summary In recent years, several studies have examined the Lisbon urban climate. A central conclusion is the existence of a nocturnal urban heat island (mean ΔT_u−r = 2.5 °C). The aim of this paper is to summarise several attempts carried out in the last decade to interpolate nocturnal air temperatures across Lisbon, in order to be able to draw thermal maps as accurately as possible. This study refers only to clear nights. Stepwise multiple regression and a Geographic Information System were used to model the relation between air temperature and parameters related to land-use and topography. The different regression models (coefficients of determination between 0.68 and 0.92) show that canopy layer air temperature depends on sky-view factor, building height and percentage of built-up area, but also to a great extend on mesoclimatic geographic factors such as altitude, topography and distance from the Tagus River. Examples of four frequently encountered nocturnal air temperature patterns are presented, each corresponds to a different weather type. This method employed could prove useful in drawing climatic maps that may be of use in master plans of urban municipalities.     

Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: An evaluation of six models and a new generator

Six variations of multiplicative random cascade models for generating fine-resolution (i.e., 5-minute interval) rainfall time series were evaluated for rainfall in Wroclaw, Poland. Of these variations, one included a new beta-normal generator for a microcanonical cascade. This newly proposed model successfully reproduces the statistical behavior of local 5-minute rainfalls, in terms of intermittency as well as variability. In contrast, both the canonical cascade models with either constant or time-scaled parameters and a microcanonical cascade model with a beta generator substantially underestimate 5-minute maximum rainfall intensities. The canonical models also fail to properly reproduce the intermittency of the rainfall process across a range of timescales. New observations are also made concerning the histograms of the breakdown coefficients (BDC). The tendency of the BDC histograms to have values exactly equal to 0.5 is identified and explained by the quality of pluviograph records. Moreover, the hierarchical evolution of BDC histograms from beta-like for long time steps to beta-normal histograms for short time steps is observed for the first time. The potential advantage is shown of synthetic high resolution rainfall time series generated by the revised microcanonical model for use in hydrology, especially hydrodynamic modelling of urban drainage networks.     

The differences of the size distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) between urban and rural sites of Guangzhou, China

Size distribution aerosol samples collected at two urban locations (Liwan and Wushan) and a suburban location (Xinken) in Guangzhou (South China) in autumn using a MOUDI (Micro-orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor) have been analyzed for 13 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by gas chromatography with mass selective detection (GC-MS). Different PAH size distribution models were found for urban locations and a suburban location. The particle size distributions of PAHs tend to shift toward a larger size in a suburban location than in an urban location caused by aerosol aging processes. The ratios of total-PAH/TSP changed greatly during different sampling periods, even though the samplings were conducted consecutively. This can be the result of reactions between PAHs and atmospheric photooxidants, and the formation of SOAs (secondary organic aerosols) during the aging process. Adsorption behavior on available aerosol surface area, absorption behavior in available aerosol organic mass and multilayer adsorptive accumulation in coarse mode aerosols were the three mechanisms which control the size distribution of PAHs.     

A climatic and environmental protection strategy,the road toward a sustainable future

This editorial essay conveys a clear message: The overuse of our fossil fuel resources especially in the North, and the overpopulation in many parts of the South, result in an unacceptable stress to Earth. This manifests itself in some of the most serious threats to mankind, such as global climatic change, environmental degradation, food shortage, hunger, poverty, and migration. It is the purpose of this editorial essay to make a contribution toward a reduction of some of these threats, notably those from climatic change. Specifically, I present a tractable climatic and environmental protection strategy which is designed to give concrete answers to such seemingly simple questions as: What has to be done? (This depends e.g. on the concentration stabilization objective of the Rio Climate Convention, and the global warming ceiling of the Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament). By whom does it have to be done? (This addresses the secret of a successful protection strategy which involves a fair burden sharing among the world's countries). When does it have to be done? (This discusses the problem of setting tractable, i.e. differentiated and binding emission targets). How can it be done? (This relates to individual countries, states, and municipalities. It is demonstrated for Germany how her commitment of a 25 to 30% CO₂ reduction by 2005 can be achieved.) Moreover, the question is addressed: How many people and how much fossil fuel use can our planet stand? The major result is that without self-restraint climate and ecosystem protection cannot be maintained, because it is incompatible with trends in the wasteful fossil fuel use in the North and strong population growth in the South. Finally, a plea is made to share responsibility on the road toward a sustainable future.     

National climate change mitigation legislation,strategy and targets: a global update

Global climate change governance has changed substantially in the last decade, with a shift in focus from negotiating globally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets to nationally determined contributions, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This paper analyses trends in adoption of national climate legislation and strategies, GHG targets, and renewable and energy efficiency targets in almost all UNFCCC Parties, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2017. The uniqueness and added value of this paper reside in its broad sweep of countries, the more than decade-long coverage and the use of objective metrics rather than normative judgements. Key results show that national climate legislation and strategies witnessed a strong increase in the first half of the assessed decade, likely due to the political lead up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009, but have somewhat stagnated in recent years, currently covering 70% of global GHG emissions (almost 50% of countries). In comparison, the coverage of GHG targets increased considerably in the run up to adoption of the Paris Agreement and 89% of global GHG emissions are currently covered by such targets. Renewable energy targets saw a steady spread, with 79% of the global GHG emissions covered in 2017 compared to 45% in 2007, with a steep increase in developing countries.

Key policy insights

• The number of countries that have national legislation and strategies in place increased strongly up to 2012, but the increase has levelled off in recent years, now covering 70% of global emissions by 2017 (48% of countries and 76% of global population).

• Economy-wide GHG reduction targets witnessed a strong increase in the build up to 2015 and are adopted by countries covering 89% of global GHG emissions (76% not counting USA) and 90% of global population (86% not counting USA) in 2017.

• Renewable energy targets saw a steady increase throughout the last decade with coverage of countries in 2017 comparable to that of GHG targets.

• Key shifts in national measures coincide with landmark international events – an increase in legislation and strategy in the build-up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference and an increase in targets around the Paris Agreement – emphasizing the importance of the international process to maintaining national momentum.