Some Characteristics of the Ionospheric Behavior During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

The Solar Cycle 23?–?24 minimum has been considered unusually deep and complex. In this article we study the ionospheric behavior during this minimum, and we have found that, although observable, the ionosphere response is minor and marginally exceeds the range of normal geophysical variability of the system. Two main ionospheric parameters have been studied: vertical TEC (vTEC, total electron content) and NmF2 (peak concentration of the F region). While vTEC showed a consistent modest decrease of the mean value, NmF2 behavior was less clear, with instances where the mean value for the minimum 23?–?24 was even higher that for the minimum 22?–?23. More extensive work is required to gain a better understanding of the ionospheric behavior under conditions similar to those presented in the last minimum.     

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.     

Did Predictions of the Maximum Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23 Come True?

For solar cycle 23, the maximum sunspot number was predicted by several workers, and the range was very wide, 80–210. Cycle 23 started in 1996 and seems to have peaked in 2000, with a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 122. From about 20 predictions, 8 were within 122±20. There is an indication that a long-term oscillation of 80–100 years may be operative and might have peaked near cycle 20 (1970), and sunspot maxima in cycles in the near future may be smaller and smaller for the next 50 years or so and rebound thereafter in the next 50 years or so.     

Comparisons of Supergranule Characteristics During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1 – 2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism, which controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influence the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character from periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 ± 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 ± 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 ± 1 m s⁻¹ in 1996; 141 ± 1 m s⁻¹ in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.     

Evolution of Coronal Holes and Implications for?High-Speed Solar Wind During the Minimum Between Cycles 23 and 24

We analyze coronal holes present on the Sun during the extended minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, study their evolution, examine the consequences for the solar wind speed near the Earth, and compare it with the previous minimum in 1996. We identify coronal holes and determine their size and location using a combination of EUV observations from SOHO/EIT and STEREO/EUVI and magnetograms. We find that the long period of low solar activity from 2006 to 2009 was characterized by weak polar magnetic fields and polar coronal holes smaller than observed during the previous minimum. We also find that large, low-latitude coronal holes were present on the Sun until 2008 and remained important sources of recurrent high-speed solar wind streams. By the end of 2008, these low-latitude coronal holes started to close down, and finally disappeared in 2009, while smaller, mid-latitude coronal holes formed in the remnants of Cycle 24 active regions shifting the sources of the solar wind at the Earth to higher latitudes.     

Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.     

Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798 – 2010. The analysis shows that spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition toward an active Sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to that of cycles 12, 14, and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as much as 20±8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo theories.     

Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activities During the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30 November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35 days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240 days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of 150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys. 438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

Statistical Study of ICMEs and Their Sheaths During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 – 2008)

We have created a new catalog of 325 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using their in-situ plasma signatures from 1996 to 2008; this time period includes Solar Cycle 23. The data set came from the OMNI near-Earth database. The one-minute resolution data that we used include magnetic-field strength, solar-wind speed, proton density, proton temperature, and plasma β. We compared this new catalog with other published catalogs. For every event, we indicated the presence of an ICME-driven shock. We identified the boundaries of ICMEs and their sheaths, and examined the statistical properties of characteristic parameters. We derived the duration and radial width of ICMEs and sheaths in the region near Earth. The statistical analysis of all events shows that, on average, sheaths travel faster than ICMEs, which indicates the expansion of CMEs in the interplanetary medium. They have higher mean magnetic-field strength values than ICMEs, and they are denser. They have higher mean proton temperature and plasma β than ICMEs, but they are smaller than ICMEs and last for a shorter time. The events were divided into different categories according to whether they included a shock and according to the phase of Solar Cycle 23 in which they are observed, i.e. ascending, maximum, or descending phase. We compared the different categories. We present a catalog of events available to the scientific community that studies ICMEs, and show the distribution and statistical properties of various parameters during these phenomena that govern the solar wind, the interplanetary medium, and space weather.     

Organization of Energetic Particles by the Solar Wind Structure During the Declining to Minimum Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We investigate the organization of the low energy energetic particles (≤1 MeV) by solar wind structures, in particular corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections, during the declining-to-minimum phase of Solar Cycle 23 from Carrington rotation 1999 to 2088 (January 2003 to October 2009). Because CIR-associated particles are very prominent during the solar minimum, the unusually long solar minimum period of this current cycle provides an opportunity to examine the overall organization of CIR energetic particles for a much longer period than during any other minimum since the dawn of the Space Age. We find that the particle enhancements associated with CIRs this minimum period recurred for many solar rotations, up to 30 at times, due to several high-speed solar wind streams that persisted. However, very few significant CIR-related energetic particle enhancements were observed towards the end of our study period, reflecting the overall weak high-speed streams that occurred at this time. We also contrast the solar minimum observations with the declining phase when a number of solar energetic particle events occurred, producing a mixed particle population. In addition, we compare the observations from this minimum period with those from the previous solar cycle. One of the main differences we find is the shorter recurrence rate of the high-speed solar wind streams (～10 solar rotations) and the related CIR energetic particle enhancements for the Solar Cycle 22 minimum period. Overall our study provides insight into the coexistence of different populations of energetic particles, as well as an overview of the large-scale organization of the energetic particle populations approaching the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

An Analysis of the Sunspot Groups and Flares of Solar Cycle 23

Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007. Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days, SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible.     

Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24

Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23. Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy).     

The Solar Cycle 23?�C?24 Minimum. A Benchmark in Solar Variability and Effects in the Heliosphere

Given the numerous ground-based and space-based experiments producing the database for the Cycle 23??C?24 Minimum epoch from September 2008 to May 2009, we have an extraordinary opportunity to understand its effects throughout the heliosphere. We use solar radiative output in this period to obtain minimum values for three measures of the Sun??s radiative output: the total solar irradiance, the Mg ii index, and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux. The derived values are included in the research summaries as a means to exchange ideas and data for this long minimum in solar activity.     

Are Planetary Tides on the Sun and the Birthplace of Sunspots Related?

We study whether the birthplaces of sunspots (defined as the location of first appearance in the photosphere) are related to the planetary tides on the Sun. The heliocentric longitudes of newly emerging sunspots are statistically compared to the longitudes of tidal peaks caused by the tidal planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. The longitude differences between new sunspots and tidal planets (and their conjugate locations) as well as the magnitudes of the vertical and horizontal tidal forces at the birthplace of new sunspots are calculated. The statistical distributions are compared with simulation results calculated using a random sunspot distribution. The results suggest that the birthplaces of sunspots (in the photosphere) are independent of the positions of tidal planets and the strength of tidal forces caused by them. However, since the sunspots actually originate near the tachocline (well below the photosphere) and it takes considerable time for the disturbances to reach photosphere, we hesitate to conclude that the formation of sunspots are not related to planetary positions.     

A Statistical Study on Photospheric Magnetic Nonpotentiality of Active Regions and Its Relationship with Flares During Solar Cycles 22?–?23

A statistical study is carried out on the photospheric magnetic nonpotentiality in solar active regions and its relationship with associated flares. We select 2173 photospheric vector magnetograms from 1106 active regions observed by the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at Huairou Solar Observing Station, National Astronomical Observatories of China, in the period of 1988??C?2008, which covers most of the 22nd and 23rd solar cycles. We have computed the mean planar magnetic shear angle ( $\overline{\Delta\phi}$ ), mean shear angle of the vector magnetic field ( $\overline{\Delta\psi}$ ), mean absolute vertical current density ( $\overline{|J_{z}|}$ ), mean absolute current helicity density ( $\overline{|h_{\mathrm{c}}|}$ ), absolute twist parameter (|?? _av|), mean free magnetic energy density ( $\overline{\rho_{\mathrm{free}}}$ ), effective distance of the longitudinal magnetic field (d _E), and modified effective distance (d _Em) of each photospheric vector magnetogram. Parameters $\overline{|h_{\mathrm{c}}|}$ , $\overline{\rho_{\mathrm{free}}}$ , and d _Em show higher correlations with the evolution of the solar cycle. The Pearson linear correlation coefficients between these three parameters and the yearly mean sunspot number are all larger than 0.59. Parameters $\overline {\Delta\phi}$ , $\overline{\Delta\psi}$ , $\overline{|J_{z}|}$ , |?? _av|, and d _E show only weak correlations with the solar cycle, though the nonpotentiality and the complexity of active regions are greater in the activity maximum periods than in the minimum periods. All of the eight parameters show positive correlations with the flare productivity of active regions, and the combination of different nonpotentiality parameters may be effective in predicting the flaring probability of active regions.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.