2008年“7.1”鄂东北特大暴雨过程的中尺度分析

利用常规气象资料、新一代雷达和卫星云图资料等,分析了2008年7月1日鄂东北特大暴雨过程中尺度扰动系统的发生发展、暴雨中尺度对流系统（MCS）结构特征以及地形对中尺度系统的影响。结果表明,鄂东北暴雨与中尺度气旋的发生发展关系密切,红安等地特大暴雨就是中尺度气旋波冷切变上激发的多个β中尺度对流系统相继东移产生的;中尺度气旋形成于黄淮锋面气旋波发展阶段,雷达反射率因子形态、结构特征较好地反映了该中尺度气旋波发展过程;对流易在红安西侧加强,同冷空气沿大别山和桐柏山之间南下与天气尺度西南气流交汇形成局地中尺度辐合线有关;红外云图上特大暴雨MCS形态为指状云团,由不同生命史阶段的子云团构成,是产生持续性强降水的云团的显著特征。     

1998年6月8～9日香港特大暴雨中尺度对流系统分析

利用卫星和多普勒雷达的高时空分辨率观测资料,对1998年6月8～9日香港暴雨过程中的中尺度对流系统进行分析,表明:(1)此次暴雨是冷锋前暖区的对流性降水,期间有3次强降水过程,每次维持时间2～5小时,中尺度对流系统是造成强降水的主要系统.(2)雷达回波强度与卫星云图对比发现,强回波区全位于云顶温度≤-32℃的云团内,但具体分布有两种情况:一种强回波区位于通常所说的发展强盛的α中尺度云团的边缘TBB等值线密集区,一种如尺度较小的线状强回波则位于两个β中尺度云团(云顶温度≤-52℃)之间.这利用常规观测资料是无法识别的.(3)分析单多普勒雷达反演的水平风场发现:大尺度的环境风场中,存在β中尺度系统的独立流场;中尺度云团内部的流场辐合与强回波带相对应.     

宝鸡2006年7月8—9日连续突发性暴雨的中尺度系统特征分析

利用西安多普勒雷达、FY-2C卫星、自动站加密雨量等资料,对宝鸡2006年7月8日、9日连续突发性暴雨的中尺度系统观测特征分析,结果表明:地面冷锋触发的中-γ尺度对流系统造成这2次暴雨;中-γ尺度对流系统生命史为1h左右,发展迅速,强降水产生于中-γ尺度系统成熟期(前30min);多普勒雷达图上,组合反射率大于45dBz的强回波对应强降水。2次突发性暴雨平均雨强1mm/min,最大4.2mm/min。借助多普勒雷达,可及时捕捉中-γ尺度对流系统。     

暴雨多普勒天气雷达回波特征分析及临近预警

对近几年来武汉雷达所观测的典型低涡、梅雨锋暴雨天气过程进行了多普勒雷达观测分析,总结了β尺度暴雨回波系统的基本特征和强降水与诸多因素的关系.分析指出,在短时预报业务中,暴雨回波的识别和预警关键是从整体上要抓住β中尺度暴雨回波系统发生发展的特征,而不是孤立地研究一个对流单体的演变.     

2009年7月7日南京短时暴雨的中尺度特征分析

利用FY-2C卫星红外辐射亮度温度(T_BB)资料、多普勒天气雷达资料、加密自动站资料、NECP再分析资料、常规观测资料对2009年7月7日发生在南京地区的一次短时大暴雨过程的中尺度特征进行分析,结果表明:在有利的天气尺度背景形势下,多个中尺度对流系统在南京地区合并,合并后的中尺度对流系统强度强,移速慢,造成了南京地区的强降水。这次短时暴雨的中尺度特征在云图T_BB资料上表现为对流云团合并后强度和范围显著增强,移速缓慢,T_BB梯度大值区在南京地区停留;在地面风场上体现为南移的中尺度辐合线与南京地区局地生成的中尺度辐合中心合并,使得地面风场辐合显著增强;在雷达回波上表现为,南京地区上空不断有对流单体并入形成大面积高效率降水回波,镶嵌其中的γ尺度对流单体沿着相同方向依次通过南京地区。分析中还发现,低空急流、低空切变线是这次短时暴雨天气过程的重要影响系统,利用多普勒雷达资料可以识别和分析它们的发展、变化特征,为短时暴雨的临近预报提供依据。     

一次典型梅雨锋暴雨过程的多尺度结构特征

利用多种类型资料,对2009年6月29—30日引发鄂皖境内梅雨锋特大暴雨过程的天气形势和中尺度对流系统（MCSs）进行了初步分析,揭示了梅雨锋暴雨系统的多尺度结构特征,并用中尺度模式WRF对梅雨锋暴雨系统进行了9km三重双向嵌套大区域精细模拟,再采用Morlet小波变换对模式输出进行空间带通滤波,分离出α、β和γ中尺度系统,对不同中尺度系统的热力动力三维空间结构特征进行了研究。结果表明：梅雨锋特大暴雨由梅雨锋上多个不同尺度的MCSs活动造成,这些不同尺度的MCSs在卫星云图和雷达回波上呈现出不同的特点。在α、β和γ中尺度上,梅雨锋暴雨中尺度系统在水平和垂直方向上的动力、热力结构特征存在着明显的差异,α、β中尺度系统具有明显的垂直环流,而γ中尺度系统则具有惯性重力波特征,往往嵌套在α、β中尺度系统内发生发展。最后,提出了典型梅雨锋暴雨系统的物理概念模型。     

我国西南地区一次暴雨过程特征及成因

利用卫星云图、多普勒天气雷达资料和高空风等各种天气学资料,对2009年6月8—9日广西、贵州、以及和湖南交界地带的一次暴雨过程进行了综合分析。结果表明,暴雨是由中尺度对流复合体东移、β中尺度强对流云团发展、以及二者合并造成的;地面α中尺度低压带配合α中尺度纬向切变线的生成,为中尺度对流复合体（mesoscale convective complex,MCC）的东移发展、β中尺度强对流云团的发展、以及二者的合并创造了有利条件;地面能量比低值舌的活动是MCC和β中尺度强对流云团生成和发展的触发机制之一;在多普勒雷达径向速度图上,MCC的生成和发展,伴随西南低空急流的建立和维持,大范围的逆风区的生成;MCC的消亡,伴随西南低空急流的减弱和消失,对应西北气流建立和东扩。MCC发展期和β中尺度强对流云团发展期、MCC消散期和β中尺度强对流云团消散期的涡度收支以及视热源和视水汽汇有很大的不同。     

东北地区一次短时大暴雨β中尺度对流系统分析

为了探寻东北短历时暴雨的预报线索,利用自动站、卫星和常规气象观测资料相结合的方法,研究2006年8月10日最大1 h雨量达到90.8 mm(泰来,其中,后半小时降水82 mm)的东北中西部百年一遇短历时特大暴雨中尺度对流系统(MCS)发展过程,及其发生的天气尺度背景和中尺度环境与触发机制.通过红外卫星云图和高分辨率的可见光云图,分析MCS如何从一个γ中尺度发展为α中尺度对流复合体(MCC)的过程.分析表明,与6个市(县)半小时雨量超过33 mm相关联的MβCS分别发生在2个阶段,第1阶段在MCC形成之前,MβCS主要向东移动(最后合并成MCC),第2阶段,在MCC成熟阶段.MpCS出现在MCC的西南边缘,而且最强短历时暴雨就发生在这里.从分辨率更高的可见光云图上可以发现,有北、西两条积云线,它们交汇的地方MβCS强烈发展并产生暴雨.分析MCS加强和产生暴雨的原因表明:(1)暴雨发生前夕暴雨区域具有高温、高湿和对流性不稳定层结,并存在明显的对流有效位能增加、抬升凝结高度及自由对流高度降低的现象,有利于暴雨发生;(2)β中尺度云团之间的合并,使MCS迅速发展,产生暴雨;(3)北、西两条积云线分别与地面风场中的两条辐合线相对应,在它们交汇处的较强辐合导致β中尺度云团强烈发展产生暴雨.分析MCS在MCC西南方向传播的原因表明,两条辐合线的移动方向和速度决定了暴雨MCS的传播方向.另外,偏北气流的出现和新老云团的新陈代谢过程是触发暴雨的关键因素.上述分析结果也为短历时暴雨的预报提供了有用的线索.     

季风槽环境中暴雨中尺度对流系统的分析与数值预报试验

应用地面降水观测资料、卫星云图、雷达回波以及NCEP再分析资料,对华南沿海受季风槽影响下发生的一次持续性暴雨的中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行分析,并探讨采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行预报的可能性。分析表明,暴雨由多个相继发展的中尺度对流系统造成。在相似环境中,不同中尺度对流系统发展形态和水平尺度有较大差异,最大可组织发展成α中尺度对流复合体（MCC）,但一般为β中尺度线状或带状对流系统。对其中发展形态分别表现为椭圆形中尺度对流复合体（MCS-2）和带状β中尺度对流系统（MCS-4）的对比分析发现,对流的起始发展均发生在夜间,与季风槽中低空急流的南风脉动有良好对应关系。基于临近探空资料的诊断发现,被认为对中尺度对流系统组织发展有指示作用的关键物理量如对流有效位能（CAPE）和风垂直切变难以区分不同中尺度对流系统的发展形态和趋势,探空资料的代表性将影响诸如“配料法”等暴雨客观预报方法的建立和应用。利用华南区域中心GRAPES（GRAPES_GZ）数值模式对两个中尺度对流系统进行的模拟预报结果表明,采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行显式预报已成为可能。比较而言,3 km水平分辨率模式可以更好地预报出暴雨的发生,但结果对是否调用对流参数化（CP）方案敏感。尽管不依靠对流参数化方案模式能够较好地预报出中尺度对流系统初始降水的发生,但会过度预报发展成熟后的降水。模式中如何描述中尺度对流系统对流的组织发展机制、如何处理对流参数化方案的“灰色区分辨率”问题需要仔细考虑。      

梅雨锋暴雨中尺度对流系统研究若干进展

梅雨锋暴雨中尺度对流系统是暴雨的直接影响系统,对其结构特征、活动规律及其发生发展的物理机制的深入研究,对提高梅雨锋暴雨的预报能力有重大意义。近年来对梅雨锋暴雨中尺度对流系统的研究取得了很大进展,文章对梅雨锋暴雨中尺度对流系统研究的若干进展作了简要综述,包括梅雨锋暴雨云系多尺度结构、梅雨锋暴雨的β和γ中尺度系统发生发展的环境条件和结构、云微物理分布和转化特征及其对热力动力过程反馈等方面,并对有关问题进行讨论。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.