山西永济风柏峪流动水准则观测的监测能力判定

用断层活动强度与地震的对应关系和经验公式估算发震震级的方法，分别对山西永济风柏峪流动水准观测进行了地震监测能力的判定。结果表明，该侧线对山西运城盆地及周边100km范围内ML≥4.0地震具有较好的映震能力。指出，这可作为为山西运城盆地及晋、陕、豫交界区地震预报的一种方法，可为该地区的防震减灾工作提供依据。     

山西南部临汾-运城盆地ML≥3.0地震平静异常效能评价

自2017年10月19日山西省临汾市尧都区发生ML3.6地震以来,临汾-运城盆地表现为大范围的ML3.0弱震活动,截至2020年6月20日ML3.0地震平静长达974d。应用临汾-运城盆地内自1997年以来的ML≥3.0地震目录,分析地震平静异常与异常结束后该区发生ML4.5以上地震之间的关系。结果显示,ML3.0地震平静异常超过1年,平静打破后的281d内在临汾-运城盆地有发生ML≥4.5地震的危险,异常对应率为100%,且地震预报效能评分R值为0.65(R0=0.52)和Molchan检验概率增益达到3,说明山西南部临汾-运城盆地ML3.0地震平静异常预测效能明显,可作为区域危险性判定的依据之一。     

山西数字测震台网监测能力及其构造意义

通过对山西数字测震台网不同时期的监测能力进行对比,发现,台网的监测能力在不断地提高。对山西省地区的监控能力达到2.0级,大同盆地、太原盆地的监控能力达到1.5级,忻定、临汾、运城盆地的监控能力达到1.5～2.0级。说明山西数字测震台网的建设从布局上侧重了对山西活动构造的监测,目前对山西大部分活动断裂带的监测能力都在1.5级,对今后的地震监测预报研究和防震减灾工作有着重要的意义。     

中条山北麓断裂形变异常的研究

叙述了山西地震带南端运城盆地及其周边100km范围近20a的地震活动特征，运用形变异常参数、差分、统计等方法对运城盆地内跨中条山北麓断裂的水准观测资料进行了研究。结果表明，断层大幅度形变速率异常变化较好地对应了研究区内1979年至2002年7次ML≥4.2的地震活动，且山西永济风柏峪测线自2001年8月至2002年4月仍存在一定的形变异常信息，表明，中条山北麓断裂目前正处于增强活动之中。     

山西地震带地震区划分及活动特点概述

山西地震带属华北地震区范畴。也称华北地震区山西地震亚区。 山西地震带,北部宏大的盆地出省到河北的怀来地区,南部由运城盆地出省到陕西的渭河谷地,中间包含着一系列的地堑或断陷盆地及谷地。整个地震带南北两段为北东东向,中间为北北东向,所以形状呈一个“S”形。在这个带的两侧还有一些次一级的地震活动区,也划入山西地震带的范畴。     

山西地震带小震群的力学成因

山西地震带小震群多发生于断陷盆地中,个别在两侧山区。尤以太原盆地分布最多,如太原、平遥、和顺、太谷、北格、介休等震群。临汾盆地一带都无震群发生,大同盆地、运城盆地也几乎无震群发生,这除了与地震条件有关外,作者认为从裂隙扩张的观点来看还与太原盆地内部的裂隙分布有关,小震群的活动反映了太原盆地内部裂隙分布较密、裂隙间隔距离较小,因而在应力增强的条件下极易产生连锁反应式的弱震活动以形成间歇的小震群。     

山西晋9-1井水位变化及映震能力初探

对位于山西孝义市的晋 9— 1 井水位的月均值变化进行了分析 ,发现其对远震、大地震有较强的映震能力 ,对近震及中等强度的地震在地震时和震后亦有一定的映震能力。得出该井水位的月均值变化可为地震预测预报提供参考的结论     

雄安新区地震危险性评估

地震危险性评估对确定工程抗震设防等级、制定城市规划与减轻地震灾害等具有重要意义.由于传统分析方法存在诸多缺陷,用其对特定区域进行地震危险性评估可靠性差.本文基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,提出了利用岩石破裂自相似性预测研究区标志性预震的方法,并进而创立了一种以地震物理预测为基础的地震危险性评估新方法.雄安新区位于唐山地震区内,近邻运城地震区.基于唐山和运城地震区地震趋势分析结果及主要断裂展布与雄安新区位置关系,在唐山地震区内划分了保定研究区,在运城地震区内划分了行唐和十渡研究区.采用上述方法,预测了这三个区将发生的较大预震.根据某些学者提出的地震烈度经验公式,评估了唐山地震区发生标志性地震、预震及运城地震区发生预震导致的雄安新区地震烈度.结果表明,未来50年内,雄安新区抗震设防烈度从原7度调整为8度为宜.     

山西运城振动事件S变换时频分析

基于S变换,对2005年以来山西南部运城及其附近地区的振动事件波形进行时频分析,并与山西南部地区的天然地震、爆破和塌陷地震波谱特征进行对比分析。结果表明：天然地震一般S波携带能量较大,衰减较慢,震相高低频成分呈现均匀分布;一般近台记录的人工爆破P波比S波发育,能量衰减较快,震相急促短暂;塌陷地震波列能量随时间和频率的展布相对集中,一般分布在频率较低区域;振动事件震相简单,被不同台站记录的波形能量优势分布及频率分布范围差异较大,衰减特征不明显。据此,基本可以排除山西南部及附近区域的振动事件为天然地震、爆破和塌陷事件的可能。     

山西地震带中段M≥6地震活动特征初探

利用历史地震资料，分析研究了山西地震带中段（包括大同、忻定、太原、临汾和运城）的Ｍ≥６地震活动特征，并对这几个盆地中强地震活动时序进行了分析对比，发现它们具明显的节奏活动特点。并对今后百年内山西地震带中段的中强地震活动趋势作出了估计。     

Age, geology, geophysics, and geochemistry of Mahukona Volcano, Hawai`i

The size, shape, and magmatic history of the most recently discovered shield volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, Mahukona, have been controversial. Mahukona corresponds to what was thought to be a gap in the paired sequence (Loa and Kea trends) of younger Hawaiian volcanoes (<4?Ma). Here, we present the results of marine expeditions to Mahukona where new bathymetry, sidescan sonar, gravity data, and lava samples were collected to address these controversies. Modeling of bathymetric and gravity data indicate that Mahukona is one of the smallest Hawaiian volcanoes (～6,000?km³) and that its magmatic system was not focused in a long-lived central reservoir like most other Hawaiian volcanoes. This lack of a long-lived magmatic reservoir is reflected by the absence of a central residual gravity high and the random distribution of cones on Mahukona Volcano. Our reconstructed subsidence history for Mahukona suggests it grew to at least ～270?m below sea level but probably did not form an island. New ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar plateau ages range from 350 to 654?ka providing temporal constraints for Mahukona’s post-shield and shield stages of volcanism, which ended prematurely. Mahukona post-shield lavas have high ³He/⁴He ratios (16–21?Ra), which have not been observed in post-shield lavas from other Hawaiian volcanoes. Lava compositions range widely at Mahukona, including Pb isotopic values that straddle the boundary between Kea and Loa sequences of volcanoes. The compositional diversity of Mahukona lavas may be related to its relatively small size (less extensive melting) and the absence of a central magma reservoir where magmas would have been homogenized.     

The Yecheng,Xinjiang, China,earthquake of February 14, 1980

In this study, we have checked the location and focal depth of the Yecheng earthquake (m _b = 6.0, maximum intensity VII) of February 14, 1980. The result shows that this is an intermediate event with a focal depth of 90 km. The microepicenter is located at 36. 4°N, 76, 9°E, while the macroepicenter is at 37.3°N, 76.9°E, 90 km to the north of the microepicenter. This is the first destructive intermediate event in China which led to a damage as severe as of intensity VII. The focal mechanism of the event is determined to be of thrust type. Combined with the analysis of seismological and geological data in surrounding area, the possible relation between the event and plate movement has been discussed. The result in this paper indicates that in some particular place, the destructive effect of intermediate event should be considered in seismic hazard assessment.     

Podhale,Poland, earthquake of November 30, 2004

Earthquake of November 30, 2004, in Podhale region, southern Poland, was of unexpectedly big size in this area of weak seismicity. As Poland is considered a country of low seismicity, the earthquake has caused concern about seismic hazard in Poland, especially since it took place shortly after the even more unexpected Kaliningrad Region, Russia, earthquakes of September 21, 2004, that inflicted minor damage in northern Poland. The paper presents the findings on the Podhale earthquake which reached macroseismic intensity up to 7 and magnitude 4.7 (m _b ; ISC). The event was felt up to a distance of about 100 km and inflicted slight damage to buildings in its narrow epicentral area, thus evidencing its relatively shallow depth. The quake has been located near the village of Skrzypne, about 15 km west-southwest of the district capital Nowy Targ. The source mechanism has been found to be of dip slip normal fault type, although a problem remains of association of this mechanism with known tectonic dislocations in the region. The earthquake has been followed by a long series of aftershocks. Their distribution in time is also studied and the biggest aftershocks have been located.     

太阳磁场磁性指数异常变化对南北半球中纬度气候的影响

本文参照太阳黑子相对数特征建立了太阳黑子磁场磁性指数时间序列. 大气温度场谱分析结果显示,南北半球中纬度平流层和对流层大气温度场普遍存在22年变化周期. 分析认为,大气温度场的22年变化周期是太阳活动22年磁性周期所激发.     

Anorthite,andesine, wollastonite,diopside, cordierite and pyrope: thermodynamics of melting,glass transitions,and properties of the amorphous phases

Drop calorimetry measurements between 900 and 1850 K are reported for amorphous anorthite, andesine, wollastonite, diopside, cordierite and pyrope. The isobaric heat capacities of the glassy and liquid phases of these materials, and the enthalpies of fusion of the minerals have been derived. The calorimetric entropies of fusion of these substances and of other oxide minerals are generally consistent with the calculated volume changes on melting and with the observed pressure dependences of the melting points. The thermodynamics of mixing of liquid plagioclases have been examined, and it is concluded that their enthalpies of mixing are markedly different from the values derived directly from solution calorimetry measurements at 985 K.     

Physical properties,vitrinite reflectance,and microstructure of coal,Taiyuan Formation,Qinshui Basin,China

In this study, we experimentally established the relationship between physical properties, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of coal, Taiyuan Formation, Qinshui Basin, China using representative coal samples collected from three different mines via the rock mechanics testing system (MTS). We analyzed the organic macerals, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of 11 coal samples using petrography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The experimental results suggest that (1) the elastic parameters can be described by linear equations, (2) both P-and S-wave velocities display anisotropy, (3) the anisotropy negatively correlates with vitrinite reflectance, and (4) the acoustic velocities and Young’s modulus are negatively correlated with the volume of micropores. The derived empirical equations can be used in the forward modeling and seismic inversion of physical properties of coal for improving the coal-bed methane (CBM) reservoir characterization.     

Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty,non-stationarity,likelihood, hypothesis testing,and communication

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Spatial distribution,source apportionment,and associated risks of trace metals (As,Pb, Cr,Cd, and Hg) from a subtropical river,Gomti, Bangladesh

Sediment samples from the Gomti River basin were investigated to determine and evaluate trace metal concentrations,their biological effect,and potential ecological and human health risks for adults and children.The mean concentrations of trace metals were organized in the descending order of mercury(Hg)(0.08 mg/kg)>chromium(Cr)(0.06 mg/kg)>lead(Pb)(0.05 mg/kg)>arsenic(As)(0.02 mg/kg)>cadmium(Cd)(0.01 mg/kg).The current study illustrated that metals were attributed to the area from natural sources and different anthropogenic sources especially from industries.However,the concentration levels were lower than the sediment quality guidelines(SQGs)based on the effect-range classifications of threshold effect concentration(TEC)and probable effect concentration(PEC).Therefore,the concentration of the elements showed no adverse biological effects on aquatic organisms.The evaluated potential ecological risk index also revealed the low toxicity to the aquatic environment.Moreover,the applied sediment quality indices,geo-accumulation index(Igeo),contamination factor(CF),and contamination severity index(CSI)suggested that the contamination levels of the elements were in the acceptable range,and the contamination had not notably impacted on the sediment quality.The risk index(HI)concerning age groups was significantly less than the threshold limit of 1 indicating that the contamination had no non-carcinogenic risk effect.The total carcinogenic risk(TCR)was less than a risk value of 1×10⁴.Hence,the current study suggests that immediate remediation is not required due to an absence of alarming conditions in the study area.Proper monitoring of the attribution of the metal elements should be done for the betterment of human and environmental health。