Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern bivariate densities: Are they applicable in hydrology?

Certain bivariate densities constructed from marginals have recently been suggested as models of hydrologic variates such as rainfall intensity and depth. It is pointed out that (i) these densities belong to the families of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern densities and the Farlie polynomial densities, which have been extensively studied in the statistical literature, and that (ii) these densities have a limited potential applicability in hydrology since they can model only weakly associated variates, whose product-moment correlationR is within the range |R|1/3, under the first family of densities, and |R|1/2 under the second family.     

Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern bivariate densities: Are they applicable in hydrology?

Certain bivariate densities constructed from marginals have recently been suggested as models of hydrologic variates such as rainfall intensity and depth. It is pointed out that (i) these densities belong to the families of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern densities and the Farlie polynomial densities, which have been extensively studied in the statistical literature, and that (ii) these densities have a limited potential applicability in hydrology since they can model only weakly associated variates, whose product-moment correlationR is within the range |R|1/3, under the first family of densities, and |R|1/2 under the second family.     

Statistical assessment of seismicity patterns in Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?

The variations of seismicity rate in Central Apenninesprior to the sequence started in September, 1997 (at00:33 UTC, M _L5.6) has been analysedby statistical methods, with the purpose of pointingup eventual periods of quiescence. The analysis wascarried out on the instrumental catalogue of theIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING), covering theperiod from January 1975 to March 1998. In apreliminary phase, the catalogue was declustered usingthe Reasenberg algorithm. After that, eventualmagnitude shifts due to variations in the modalitiesof observation have been individuated and corrected.The subsequent analysis, carried out making use of theZmap software package, has put in evidence thatthe sequence of September 1997 was preceded bya 2.5 year period characterised by absence of eventsof magnitude larger than 3.2, in an area approximately20 × 40 km wide, including the epicentre of themain shock. The statistical methodology shows thatonly 1/10³ of the space-time volumes analysed inthis study, exhibited quiescence of the same level.The study of seismicity rate change correlated toprevious main shocks in a larger area of CentralApennines shows that none of them were preceded by aseismic quiescence, specially close to the epicentreof the main shock, and lasting until the time ofoccurrence of the main shock as in the 1997 case.Actually, we found other patterns of precursoryquiescence with different time or space distribution.We conclude that precursory quiescence is a realfeature of Central Apennines seismicity, but it isdifficult to define a simple hypothesis, which appliesto the generality of cases and can be tested beforeimplementation in a system of earthquake riskmitigation.     

Natural Attenuation: A Feasible Approach to Remediation of Ground Water Pollution at Landfills?

Remediation of ground water pollution at old landfills with no engineered leachate collection system is a demanding and costly operation. It requires control of the landfill body, since the majority of the pollutants are still present in the landfilled waste for decades after the site has been closed. However removing the source is an attractive approach to managing leachate plumes. Natural attenuation has been implemented for petroleum hydrocarbon plumes and chorinated solvent plumes, primarily in the United States. Natural attenuation has not yet gained a foothold with respect to leachate plumes, however. Based on the experience gained from 10 years of research on two Danish landfills, it is suggested that natural attenuation is a feasible approach but is more complicated and demanding than in the case of petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated solvent.     

Seismicity of Czorsztyn Lake Region: A Case of Reservoir Triggered Seismic Process?

Czorsztyn Lake is an artificial water reservoir backed up by the hydropower plant Niedzica earth dam on Dunajec River in south Poland. Its filling began in 1995 and ended in 1997. The reservoir of 234.5 million m3 capacity is shallow, between 20 to 50 m of water column, on average. Until 2011 the seismic activity in this region was sparse, some 1 event trimonthly. However, in November 2011 more than 60 events occurred. Such bursts of activity, separated by low activity periods, continue to appear. Since August 2013 the area is monitored by a local seismic network. The setup allows to accurately locate the epicenters and to determine source mechanisms for stronger events. The events are clustered and aligned along NE-SW direction and their mechanisms are very similar, indicating N-S strike slip faulting. This and the irregular pattern of activity suggest that this seismicity is triggered by the reservoir impoundment.     

Dark energy: back to Newton?

Lucy Calder and Ofer Lahav look back at the surprisingly long history of dark energy, the dominant but mysterious component of our universe.     

Are marine plastic particles transport vectors for organic pollutants to the Arctic?

Plastic litter accounts for 50-80% of waste items stranded on beaches, floating on the ocean surface and lodged in the seabed. Organic pollutants can be absorbed onto plastic particles from sea water, attached to their surfaces or included in the plastic matrix as additives. Such chemicals may be transported to remote regions by buoyant plastics and ocean currents. We have estimated mass fluxes of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) to the Arctic via the main ocean currents and compared them to those in the dissolved state and in air. Substance fluxes with atmospheric or sea water currents account for several tons per year, whereas those mediated by plastics are four to six orders of magnitude smaller. However, the significance of various pollutant transport routes does not depend only on absolute mass fluxes but also on bioaccumulation in marine food chains.     

Erratum to: Seasonal Variations in the b-Value of the Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351322090014     

Are Taxonomic Distinctness measures compliant to other ecological indicators in assessing ecological status?

Assessing the ecological status, a concept implemented in the European Water Framework Directive [EC, 2000. Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for community action in the field of water policy PE-CONS 3639/1/00, p. 72], requires the application of methods capable of distinguishing different levels of ecological quality. The Average Taxonomic Distinctness has been used as tool in this context, and we tested the robustness of Taxonomic Distinctness measures applying it in different scenarios (estuarine eutrophication, organic pollution, and re-colonisation after physical disturbance), analysing simultaneously its compliance to other types of ecological indicators. Results show that, in most of the case studies, only Total Taxonomic Distinctness was relatively satisfactory in discriminating between disturbed situations. Other Taxonomic Distinctness measures have not proved to be more sensitive than other ecological indicators (Shannon-Wiener, Margalef, and Eco-Exergy indices). Therefore, this approach does not seem to be particularly helpful in assessing systems' ecological status with regard to the WFD implementation.     

Are taxonomic distinctness measures compliant to other ecological indicators in assessing ecological status?

Assessing the ecological status, a concept implemented in the European Water Framework Directive [Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for community action in the field of water policy PE-CONS 3639/1/00, 72 p.], requires the application of methods capable of distinguishing different levels of ecological quality. Somerfield and Clarke [Marine Environmental Research 43 (2003) 145-156] proposed Average Taxonomic Distinctness to be used as tool in this context. We tested the robustness of Taxonomic Distinctness measures applying it in different scenarios (estuarine eutrophication, organic pollution, and re-colonisation after physical disturbance), analysing simultaneously its compliance to other types of ecological indicators. Results show that, in most of the case studies, only Total Taxonomic Distinctness was relatively satisfactory in discriminating between disturbed situations. Other Taxonomic Distinctness measures have not proved to be more sensitive than other ecological indicators (Shannon-Wiener, Margalef, and Eco-Exergy indices). Therefore, this approach does not seem to be particularly helpful in assessing systems' ecological status with regard to the WFD implementation.     

Endocrine disrupting compounds: can they target the immune system of fish?

Endocrine disruption, in particular disruption by estrogen-active compounds, has been identified as an important ecotoxicological hazard in the aquatic environment. Research on the impact of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) on wildlife has focused on disturbances of the reproductive system. However, there is increasing evidence that EDCs affect a variety of physiological systems other than the reproductive system. Here, we discuss if EDCs may be able to affect the immune system of fish, as this would have direct implications for individual fitness and population growth. Evidence suggesting an immunomodulatory role of estrogens in fish comes from the following findings: (a) estrogen receptors are expressed in piscine immune organs, (b) immune gene expression is modulated by estrogen exposure, and (c) pathogen susceptibility of fish increases under estrogen exposure.     

Definitions of climatological and discharge days: do they matter in hydrological modelling?

The performance of hydrological models is affected by uncertainty related to observed climatological and discharge data. Although the latter has been widely investigated, the effects on hydrological models from different starting times of the day have received little interest. In this study, observational data from one tropical basin were used to investigate the effects on a typical bucket-type hydrological model, the HBV, when the definitions of the climatological and discharge days are changed. An optimization procedure based on a genetic algorithm was used to assess the effects on model performance. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies varied considerably between day definitions, with the largest dependence on the climatological-day definition. The variation was likely caused by how storm water was assigned to one or two daily rainfall values depending on the definition of the climatological day. Hydrological models are unlikely to predict high flows accurately if rainfall intensities are reduced because of the day definition.     

Inorganic and methylmercury: do they transfer along a tropical coastal food web?

Methylmercury (MeHg) and inorganic mercury (Hg_inorg) were evaluated in the water of a Brazilian estuary, with two size classes of plankton and seven fish species of different feeding habits. Water partition coefficients (PCs) in microplankton were fourfold higher for MeHg than for Hg_inorg; and water PCs in mesoplankton were 26 times higher for MeHg than Hg_inorg. Difference between microplankton and mesoplankton MeHg bioaccumulation factor (BAF) was higher (0.60 log units) than Hg_inorg BAF (0.24 log units), indicating that trophic transfer of MeHg between planktonic organisms is more efficient than Hg_inorg transference. MeHg concentrations, proportion of mercury as MeHg and its biotransference factors (BTFs) in the microplankton, mesoplankton and fish increased with increasing trophic level while biotic concentrations of Hg_inorg and proportion of mercury as Hg_inorg decreased thus indicating that MeHg was indeed the biomagnified species of mercury. MeHg reflected the vertical trophic guilds distribution, due to the fact that the top predator fish presented the highest concentration (0.77 μg g⁻¹ d.w.), followed by the less voracious species (0.43 μg g⁻¹ d.w.); while planktivorous fish presented the lowest concentrations (0.044 μg g⁻¹ d.w.). Hg_inorg did not present the same behavior. Results suggest that feeding habits and trophic guild are important parameters, influencing biotransference and biomagnification processes.