1980~2013年二阶重力场球谐系数变化研究

基于重力场系数与极移和日长变化(LOD)之间的相互关系,计算1980~2013年二阶重力场系数变化（ΔC21、ΔS21）,并将其与人卫激光测距（SLR）的结果进行比较分析。结果表明,两者的变化趋势一致。SLR解算的ΔC20存在6 a变化的周期信号,但其振幅只是LOD中6 a信号的1/10,表明LOD中的6 a信号不是由大气、海洋、陆地水等地球动力学过程所激发的,现在还无法确定其激发机制。     

基于EWT-ARMA的短期电离层TEC预测模型

针对电离层总电子含量（TEC）数据非线性、非平稳的特点,在自回归移动平均（ARMA）模型的基础上,结合经验小波变换（EWT）,提出一种组合的短期电离层预测方法。采用IGS提供的电离层TEC格网数据进行实验,通过对比分析可知,相较于单一ARMA模型,本文组合模型在太阳活动低年和太阳活动高年5 d内的平均相对精度分别提高4.8%和2.8%,前1 d内组合模型的平均相对精度分别提高7%和6.1%。     

基于Argo海洋观测资料分析2005~2015年全球比容海平面变化的时空特征

利用3家机构（JAMSTEC、SIO、IPRC）发布的Argo海洋温度和盐度数据分析2005~2015年全球SSL在不同时间和空间尺度上的变化特征。结果表明,全球平均SSL（即由海水密度变化引起的）上升速率为1.08±0.38 mm/a;年际信号对SSL变化速率的估算结果存在显著影响,近期（2011~2015年）Argo数据的估算结果（2.16±0.50 mm/a）显著大于早期（2005~2010年）的结果（0.66±0.64 mm/a）。当前Argo产品用于全球平均SSL变化趋势的分析结果较为一致,差异为3家机构所得结果平均值的10%左右;而小尺度上(20°宽纬度带)的计算结果差异很大,能达到平均值的80%。对全球SSL的空间特征的分析结果也显示,3家机构产品估算的海平面比容变化周年振幅和线性速率在更小的尺度(±5°)上存在不可忽视的差异。     

基于Google Earth Engine的红树林年际变化监测研究

遥感技术已广泛应用于红树林资源调查与动态监测中,但仍然存在遥感数据获取困难、数据预处理工作量大、监测时间长而周期过大等问题,影响了学者对红树林演变过程的精细刻画与理解。本文基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）云遥感数据处理平台,选取Landsat系列卫星数据,生成长时间序列年际极少云影像集（云量少于5%）,利用3个红外波段反射率（NIR、SWIR1、SWIR2）和3个特征指数（NDVI、NDWI、NDMI）建立阈值规则集,实现对实验区越南玉显县红树林、红树林-虾塘、不透水面-裸地、水体4种目标地物的专家知识决策树分类和土地覆盖的制图,并基于分类结果监测该区域1993-2017年的红树林年际动态变化。结果表明：GEE平台可满足多云多雨地区红树林的长时间序列年际变化监测需求;本文阈值分类方法可以有效提取红树林及红树林-虾塘,实验区有86%年份的影像分类精度达到80%以上;年际变化监测可精细刻画实验区红树林面积先增后减再增的变化过程,也能准确反映红树林与红树林-虾塘养殖系统面积之间的负相关关系。红树林年际动态监测结果可以降低红树林演变分析的不确定性,并能更精细地量化红树林与其他土地覆盖类型的转化过程,从而评估经济发展、政策等因素对红树林演变的影响。     

GPS/PWV时间序列特征提取方法的研究

针对GAMIT/GLOBK软件解算得到的4 a GPS/PWV时间序列的特征提取问题,提出基于滤波辅助的部分集成经验模态分解（PEEMD）与Hilbert谱分析相结合的特征提取方法。首先,在PEEMD方法的基础上,结合滤波辅助的PEEMD方法与Hilbert谱分析,建立GPS/PWV时间序列特征提取模型;然后,将所提出的方法应用于TNML测站4 a的GPS/PWV长时间序列和7 d的GPS/PWV短时间序列分析中,并将滤波辅助的PEEMD结果与传统的小波分解结果进行对比。结果表明,该特征提取方法能准确有效地提取出 GPS/PWV时间序列中的周年周期和日周期特征分量,滤波辅助的PEEMD分解结果与小波分解结果一致,且提取的特征分量与原始信号更加吻合。     

20世纪80年代初以来北太平洋海温变化特征

应用1979.1-2006.12北太平洋海表温度（SST）资料,采用一元线性回归、功率谱等统计方法对该区SST的变化特征进行分析,结果表明：（1）北太平洋SST年际变化较为显著,尤其在靠近亚洲大陆一带洋面、北太平洋中部中纬度海域及赤道中、东太平洋;（2）北太平洋西部和中部SST1-12月均呈上升趋势,靠近亚洲大陆的日本海一带和我国大陆以东洋面升温最快。除我国以东洋面升温中心在冬季外,其余海域升温均在夏秋季更迅速,20世纪90年代初以来尤为明显;北美海岸山脉以西及赤道中、东太平洋SST则呈弱的下降趋势;（3）赤道中、东太平洋春夏季存在显著5a和3.5a左右的年际变化;北太平洋中部30°N一带冬春季存在5-6a左右的年际变化和约14a的年代际变化;（4）除北太平洋中部（西风漂流区）外,各个海域大部分月份SST高值年和低值年分别与厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年对应,西风漂流区SST高值年均出现在20世纪末21世纪初,低值年与厄尔尼诺年对应。     

奇异谱分析在倾斜应变数据处理中的应用研究

通过模拟数据实验验证奇异谱分析（SSA）对于周期信号和趋势项有分离和提取功能,能有效去除标准差低于信号振幅的噪声,检测识别信号中存在的奇异点。将SSA应用于实际倾斜应变固体潮数据的处理中,选取丹东台、徐州台和泾县台的倾斜应变数据进行SSA处理。结果表明,SSA能有效提取数据中的长趋势成分和固体潮各潮波,有效分离数据中的干扰成分,识别出周期为7~15 d的降雨干扰, 对干扰排除和异常提取具有一定的参考意义。最后经过大量数据验证得出,SSA适用于倾斜应变数据的嵌入维度范围的经验选择。     

面向对象和DEM的ZY-1 02C影像湿地提取研究

本文运用面向对象分类与DEM数据相结合的方法,对资源卫星一号02C卫星遥感影像进行湿地提取。探索了基于对象与DEM信息的提取技术,在02C影像湿地的提取应用,对研究我国国产卫星在湿地监测和保护方面有重要的意义。研究结果表明：（1）面向对象的遥感影像信息提取方法,可同时兼顾影像光谱信息及空间信息,适用于02C影像的湿地提取,精度得到明显提高;（2）基于对象与DEM信息的提取方法,使沼泽地与草地相混淆的现象明显减轻,湿地分类精度进一步提高,该方法适用于高分辨率遥感影像的湿地提取研究;（3）基于对象与DEM信息提取的水田、水体、沼泽地及河滩的精度,分别为88.46%、97.44%、86.96%和83.33%,满足资源卫星一号02C遥感影像对湿地进行监测和保护的需要。     

陆态网络太原台gPhone重力仪背景噪声水平研究

基于陆态网络太原台gPhone重力仪1a的观测记录,在地震频段(200~600s)、亚地震频段(1~6h)和潮汐频段(周期大于6h)研究其背景噪声水平,并与全球超导重力仪SG的背景噪声进行比较。结果发现,潮汐和大气改正可以一定程度上改进重力数据的功率谱密度PSD,尤其是在亚地震频段和潮汐频段。经计算,太原gPhone重力仪在地震频段、亚地震频段和潮汐频段的背景噪声水平分别为3.641、4.659和5.359。gPhone重力仪的噪声水平在地震频段和亚地震频段均高于SG的噪声水平,但是在频率低于0.8×10-4 Hz时,gPhone重力仪的噪声水平低于新低噪声模型NLNM。此外,分析gPhone重力仪记录的2014年智利Mw8.1地震激发的自由振荡信号表明,虽然gPhone重力仪的噪声水平高于超导重力仪,但其依然能够清晰检测到地球自由振荡信号,验证了gPhone重力仪不仅适合研究长周期潮汐和亚地震模,也可以清晰获取地震频段的地球自由振荡信号。     

华北地区近期地壳水平运动的非震负位错反演

利用一种经初步改进了的非震负位错模型和华北地区1991－2000年的GPS观测资料，反演华北地区的地壳水平运动，以获取构造块体和边界断裂活动状况以及应力应变的积累部位及强度。其结果显示：（1）华北地区整体性向东偏南运动，冀鲁北部各块体正东向速率相对较大（11．4－12mm/a）；（2）阴山－燕山与河套断陷－鄂尔多斯－晋冀鲁间近EW－NWW向边界两侧左旋相对运动明显，导致1．0－2．8mm/a的边界锁定，且东段大于西段，以压性为主；（3）太行断块东西两界的北东向断裂带呈0－1．9mm/a的拉张锁定，左旋为主，其中晋获断裂锁定量最高；（4）唐山－沧东断裂北段、益都北西段及郯庐断裂中南段呈0．9－3．1mm/a右旋拉张锁定，其中益都北西段锁定量最高；（5）14条断裂中有12条不同程度地阻碍块体相对运动，近10年来有相当于Ms4.8-6.1的能量积累，其中燕山与冀鲁交界西段最高，阴山与鄂尔多斯东部交界次之，均表现为压性；晋获、郯庐断裂较弱（张性）；（6）从块体及断层活动方向来看，燕山、冀鲁交界西段与唐山－沧东断裂交汇区，阴山、鄂尔多斯东部交界与汾渭断裂交汇区，积聚一定程度应力应变的可能性相对更大。     

Long-term variabilities of thermodynamic structure of the East China Sea Cold Eddy in summer

Based on more than 30 years observed sectional temperature data since the 1960s, and compared with multi-year wind and Changjiang (Yangtze) River discharge data, spatial-temporal variations of the East China Sea Cold Eddy (ECSCE) in summer was analyzed in relationship to ocean circulation and local atmospheric circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analyseswere applied to this study. The results show that: l) The ECSCE in summer possesses significant interannual variabilities, which are directly associated with oceanic and atmospheric circulation anomaly. Main fluctuations demonstrate their falling in basically with E1 Nino events (interannual) and interdecadal variability. 2) The ECSCE in summer is closely related to the variation of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) and the Changjiang River discharge. The stronger the YSWC, the more intensive the ECSCE with its center shifting westward,and vice versa. However, a negative correlation between the Changjiang River discharge and the ECSCE strength is shown. The ECSCE was strengthened after the abrupt global climate change affected by the interdecadal variation of the YSWC. 3) SVD analysis suggested a high correlation between the variation of the ECSCE in summer and the anomalous cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the ECS. Intensification of the cyclonic wind strengthens the ECSCE, and vice versa. 4) The cyclonic atmospheric circulation has dominant influence on the interannual variation of the ECSCE, and the influence of the ocean circulation takes the second in. The ECSCE was usually stronger in E1 Nifio years affected by strong cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere. The variation in strength of the ECSCE resulted from the joint effect of both oceanic and atmospheric circulation.     

对流层延迟与可降水量直接转换模型研究

采用线性回归和最小二乘法拟合建立无线电探空可降水量（RS-PWV）与GPS对流层延迟（GPS-ZTD）、地面温度及大气压之间的直接转换模型,并将直接转换模型得到的PWV分别与RS-PWV及GPS反演得到的可降水量（GPS-PWV）进行比较。结果表明,RS-PWV与GPS-ZTD之间存在良好的线性关系,相关系数达0.927 6;RS-PWV与4阶拟合温度和大气压呈现较好的相关性,相关系数分别为0.640 1和－0.626 3;基于ZTD的单阶单因子模型PWV与GPS-PWV的相关系数达到0.969 9;基于ZTD、温度及大气压的单阶多因子模型PWV比基于ZTD的单阶单因子模型PWV精度明显提高,RMS从4.3 mm提高到3.3 mm。     

Variability of subduction rates of the subtropical North Pacific mode waters

The climatology subduction rate for the entire Pacific is known, but the mechanism of interannual to decadal variation remains unclear. In this study, we calculated the annual subduction rates of three types of North Pacific subtropical mode waters using a general circulation model (LICOM1.0) for the period of 1958-2001. The model experiments focused on interannual variations of ocean dynamical processes under daily wind forcings and seasonal heat fluxes. The mode water formation region was defined by a potential vorticity minimum at outcrop locations. The model results show that two subduction rate maxima (>100 m/a) were located in the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and the Central Mode Water (CMW) formation regions. These regions are consistent with a climatologically calculated value. The subduction rate in the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) formation region was smaller at about 75 m/a. The subduction rate shows clear interannual and decadal variations associated with oceanic dynamic variabilities. The average subduction rate of the STMW was much smaller during the period of 1981-1990 compared with other periods, while that of the CMW had a negative anomaly before 1975 and a positive anomaly after 1978. The variability agreed with Ekman and geostrophic advections and mixed layer depths. The interannual variability of the subduction rate for the ESTMW was smallest during 1970-1990, as a result of a weak wind stress curl. This paper explores how interannual signals from the atmosphere are stored in different parts of the ocean, and thus may contribute to a better understanding of feedback mechanisms for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) event.     

Long-term variability of the sharp thermocline in the Yellow and East China Seas

Based on observed temperature data since the 1950s, long-term variability of the summer sharp thermocline in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) and East China Sea Cold Eddy (ECSCE) areas is examined. Relationships between the thermocline and atmospheric and oceanic forcing were investigated using multiyear wind, Kuroshio discharge and air temperature data. Results show that: 1) In the YSCWM area, thermocline strength shows about 4-year and 16-year period oscillations. There is high correlation between summer thermocline strength and local atmospheric temperature in summer and the previous winter; 2) In the ECSCE area, interannual oscillation of thermocline strength with about a 4-year period (stronger in El Ni o years) is strongly correlated with that of local wind stress. A transition from weak to strong thermocline during the mid 1970s is consistent with a 1976/1977 climate shift and Kuroshio volume transport; 3) Long-term changes of the thermocline in both regions are mainly determined by deep layer water, especially on the decadal timescale. However, surface water can modify the thermocline on an interannual timescale in the YSCWM area.     

基于网络法时序InSAR大气误差校正方法研究

将大气相位延迟对干涉图的影响分为3个主要分量,分别采用网络法进行解算和消除。以西藏崩错地区为实验区,利用2007~2010年期间20景ENVISAT ASAR数据对该方法进行验证,并采用一维协方差函数分别对校正前后的大气延迟误差进行估计。结果显示,协方差函数中平均方差从原来的3.1 mm²降到0.6mm²,降低了80%;e-folding波长从原来的1.5 km减低到0.21 km,减低了86%,说明网络法可以有效地校正干涉图中的大气相位延迟误差。     

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基于MODIS和AMSR-E反演京津冀地区大气水汽含量及比较

为了长时间、大范围获取水汽数值,利用2005~2008年光学遥感的MODIS近红外、红外水汽产品,以及微波遥感AMSR-E数据,2种方法反演水汽。微波AMSR-E亮温数据采用Merritt N.Deeter(2007)亮温极化差方法,选取18.7GHz和23.8GHz 2个波段,得到AMSR-E升轨、降轨大气水汽数值。以京津冀地区为研究区域,通过地统计相关性分析、时间序列分析、年际间变化分析,可知2种方法4种资料反演的大气水汽数值的R2都达到0.95,时间分布符合中国雨带移动规律,空间分布不均。MODIS数据反演值比AMSR-E值要低,得到2种方法反演水汽的各自优缺点。     

Comparison of visibility measurements over horizontal path by Micro-pulsed lidar and visibility meter

As a powerful tool to scan the atmosphere, the I idar can derive visibility values by directly collecting the backscattering laser light from the atmosphere. Simultaneous measurements of atmospheric visibility by Micro-pulsed lidar （MPL） and a commercial visibility meter （VM） NQ-1 have been performed to evaluate the feasibility of the MPL system designed by the Ocean Remote Sensing Laboratory （ORSL） of the Ocean University of China （OUC） from October 21 2005 to November 21 2005 in the Shilaoren Sightseeing Garden on the Qingdao coast. All the 880 data samples obtained by the two instruments have high correlation coefficients （up to 0.86）, which indicates it is feasible to utilize MPL to measure atmospheric visibility.     

Response of the Dominant Modes of Atmospheric Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere to a Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in 2007

This study revisits the Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) for the extended period of 1979-2015 based on satellite measurements and finds that the Arctic SIE experienced three different periods: a moderate sea ice decline period for 1979-1996, an accelerated sea ice decline period from 1997 to 2006, and large interannual variation period after 2007, when Arctic sea ice reached its tipping point reported by Livina and Lenton(2013). To address the response of atmospheric circulation to the lowest sea ice conditions with a large interannual variation, we investigated the dominant modes for large atmospheric circulation responses to the projected 2007 Arctic sea ice loss using an atmospheric general circulation model(ECHAM5). The response was obtained from two 50-yr simulations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice concentration for the period of 1979-1996 and one with that of sea ice conditions in 2007. The results suggest more occurrences of a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO) response to the 2007 Arctic sea ice conditions, accompanied by an North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-type atmospheric circulation response under the largest sea ice loss, and more occurrences of the positive Arctic Dipole(AD) mode under the 2007 sea ice conditions, with an across-Arctic wave train pattern response to the largest sea ice loss in the Arctic. This study offers a new perspective for addressing the response of atmospheric circulation to sea ice changes after the Arctic reached the tipping point in 2007.     

一种基于特征子空间的多用户盲分离算法

提出了一种基于特征子空间的多用户盲分离算法。算法首先估计出信号源的导向矢量,然后再利用ESB算法进行波束形成,解决了当存在多个用户时权值收敛于单一用户的问题,可以在不知道信号先验知识的情况下对来自不同方向上的独立信号进行有效的分离。算法不需要进行繁琐的Gram—Schmidt正交化处理,并且在盲分离信号的基础上还可以估计出信号的波达方向。计算机仿真结果表明,分离出来的信号与源信号的相关系数均大于0．99,证实了算法的有效性。