地震科学信息综合及其向社会发布：南加州地震中心的历史

引言 寺田寅彦（Torahiko Terada）是20世纪初日本的一名物理学家、散文家和著名学者，也是东京大学地震研究所的创建者之一。他提出了家喻户晓的一句话是“天灾总是在人们将其淡忘时来临”。这句话虽然一点也不包含引发灾难现象的科学信息，但它在20世纪初无论对公众还是对负责公共安全的政府官员都是一个有效的警示。     

美国地质调查局地震监测概况及科学发展战略

2009年3月3日至5月12日,作者有幸参加了中国地震局组织的“地震应急管理境外培训班”。在考察、交流、学习之余,通过美国地质调查局（USGS）信息网站,对美国地质调查局的组织机构及队伍状况、美国地质调查局的职责和任务、美国地震监测系统、美国地质调查局2007--2017科学发展战略等进行了系统调研和资料整理,其中与防震减灾有关的科学发展战略内容对指导中国地震局做好“十二五”发展规划战略研密具有叁考价倌．     

南加州地震中心新的多方位协作计划

南加州地震中心（ＳＣＥＣ）自成立以来,其知识传播和教育计划一直是相互独立的。１９９８年１月,中心董事会在其新的工作计划中决定将以上的计划并入一个统一的多方位协作计划中去,这些计划代表和服务于所有的ＳＣＥＣ研究机构。由于非常出色,这些计划的规模和声誉迅...     

1998年南加州地震中心的研究项目

南加州地震中心的科研任务南加州地震中心（ＳＣＥＣ）的研究目标是研究和发展地震危险性评估的科学基础,其研究重点是：①地震潜势或作为地点、震级和时间函数的地震发生的概率;②破裂动力学;③地面运动或是用于任何场地的任意地震的完整的理论地震图。地震潜势研究包...     

浅析地震科学对社会发展的影响

随着社会及学科的发展,越来越多的地震知识应用于社会领域,对社会的发展具有极大的促进作用,为此有必要进一步探讨地震科学的影响。从地震预报、工程地震、震害预测、震灾评估、地震宣传和地震速报与应急等方面讨论了地震科学对社会发展的影响。结果表明,地震科学具有重要手社会价值和广泛的应用前景。在此基础上,提出应进一步加强地震震源、地球内部结构和地震预报等学科的研究,并展望了共应用前景。     

地震科学发展的大趋势：谈地震科学研究的综合化

地震科学是一门跨自然科学和社会科学的边缘科学,地震科学的发展除以地震监测台网的建设和科研人员的培养为基础外,还应依赖地震科学研究的综合化.对地震科学研究综合化的前提、各方法论在地震科学研究综合化上的应用及贡献等做了探讨.     

Heat flow map of the European part of the U.S.S.R.

A heat flow isoline map is presented. Low and relatively constant heat flow has been observed in the old shield areas of the East European Platform (25–40 mW/m²). Increased heat flow (>50 mW/m²) has been found in the Dniepr-Donetz depression. The area south of the East European Platform is characterized by highly variable heat flow (55–100 mW/m²). Some geophysical implications are discussed.     

Temporal cycles of karst denudation in northwest Georgia,U.S.A.

Time patterns of karst denudation in northwest Georgia (U.S.A.) were investigated at three spring sites for 12 months and at five stream sites for 10 years. Rainfall was evenly distributed and showed no significant seasonality. At the springs, as well as the streams, water hardness was largely controlled by discharge. At the springs, soil pCO₂ and water pH were strongly correlated (r + -0·69 to -0·83). Solute transport in spring waters was highly seasonal, with two conduit flow springs removing more limestone in the winter, and the diffuse flow spring removing more during the growing season. At the stream sites, most denudation occurred during the winter and spring seasons, and least during the summer. Fourier analysis showed that variations in denudation occur on deterministic (long-wave) as well as stochastic (shortwave) time scales. As contributing variables, discharge varied in short-wave and long-wave cycles, whereas soil pCO₂ showed only a long-wave cycle. The 12 month deterministic cycles were the most important, with changes in discharge taking precedence over soil pCO₂. Time series regression explains up to 69 per cent of changes in denudation through rain and soil pCO₂. Time cycles in available water are the key controlling factor of denudation, and amounts of available soil CO₂ may not be as important in the temporal patterns of karst downwearing as has been believed previously.     

从地震工程研究看防震减灾科学研究计划

本文从比较伊朗巴姆地震和日本新潟中越地震入手,指出了我国防震减灾任务的迫切性。通过介绍美国地震工程网络模拟系统(NEES),阐述了我们和先进国家之间在试验手段上的差距。结合自然科学基金会相关学科发展趋势的研究结果和我国到2020年的全国防震减灾目标,提出了在数学上如何表达这样的一个宏观目标。最后,文章给出了几个具体的建议,为防震减灾科学研究规划提供参考资料。     

中国地震台网中心与美国哈佛大学快速震源机制解的对比

收集了2004～2006年中国地震台网中心(CENC)和美国哈佛大学(HRV)对同一地震快速震源机制解的测定结果.比较两个机构不同测定结果的地震震源机制类型;比较两者矩震级结果;计算同一地震不同反演结果的P轴、T轴空间取向差别.比较结果表明,除了少数地震的震源机制类型存在明显差别,震源机制类型一致的事件占总数的63%,中国地震台网中心测定的矩震级比美国哈佛大学测定结果偏小,平均偏差约为0.35.两个机构不同测定结果的P轴、T轴空间夹角分布较分散,在大约30°附近分布频度较大,这可能代表两个机构对同一地震测定震源机制解的一致性参数.     

Light for Earthquake Prediction： Shocks before the L＇Aquila Earthquake of April 6, 2009

The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.     

Tracing Subsurface Fluid Anomalies Before Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake and Prediction of the Earthquake

High-value subsurface fluid anomalies appeared in the northern part of North China region for more than two years before the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake. Some of the anomalies have appeared alternately and were correlated with moderate and moderately strong earthquakes in the region during the last year (1997). Typical short-term subsurface fluid anomalies have appeared in the area at 100 km ~ 200 km distance from the epicenter for two months before an earthquake. Tracing these anomalies during the last two years and repeatedly improving the knowledge of seismic regime, we have more successfully performed short-term and imminent earthquake prediction at half a month before its occurrence.     

"中国数字地震科学计划(建议书)"概述

介绍了制定中国数字地震科学计划的目的和意义，该计划的主要内容，及其与中国数字地震观测网络项目的关系。     

Light for Earthquake Prediction:Shocks before the L'Aquila Earthquake of April 6,2009

The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.     

阿富汗地震R/S分形特征及地震活动性分析

地震的发生具有非线性特征,分形理论能够刻画地震时空分布特征及其变化过程。本文基于R/S分析方法确定阿富汗主要地震带的分形特征,利用ARIMA模型对兴都—库什山地震带可能发生的年度最大震级进行预测。R/S分析表明,兴都—库什山地震带Hurst指数为0.9125,地震活动记忆周期为8年; 苏莱曼山地震带Hurst指数为0.7281,地震活动记忆周期为9年。兴都—库什山和苏莱曼山地震带地震活动的变化趋势与历史变化一致,且兴都—库什山地震带的趋势延续性比苏莱曼山地震带更为显著。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2022—2026年兴都—库什山地震带可能发生的年度最大震级分别为M_b6.2、M_b6.1、M_b5.8、M_b5.8和M_b6.1。     

756年张掖-酒泉地震考

根据现有历史地震资料和新补充史料的综合考证,认为现行地震目录所给的公元756年张掖-酒泉地震参数不确切,应做如下修正:震级应由现在的6级修订为7级左右,震中烈度由Ⅶ～Ⅷ度修订为Ⅸ～X度,极震区介于张掖、酒泉之间的高台北罗城一带.