Effects of discharge of municipal waste on water quality of the lower Mississippi River

The effects of discharge of municipal wastes on water quality within the lower Mississippi River below Old River have been reevaluated using published water quality data in the Louisiana reach of the river for the water years 1974–1984. A novel graphical technique has facilitated the evaluation of upriver controls on water quality and the identification of sources and sinks along the lower Mississippi. Comparison of calculated annual fluxes at different downstream monitoring stations has simplified some of the problems inherent in evaluating analyses of samples collected from different water masses during a typical sampling run. The absolute concentrations of chloride, nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorous, dissolved oxygen, BOD, and COD are all strongly dependent on processes occurring upriver. Nonpoint influx of materials from agricultural wastes and natural plant debris may be the dominant upstream sources of N, P, BOD, and COD. Increases in chloride and phosphorous downstream within the Lower Mississippi appear to be caused by discharge of industrial wastes. Nitrogen fluxes decrease downriver, except where there is local discharge of high-N, high-P industrial waste water, possibly from fertilizer plants. Removal of N and increases in BOD may be due in part to biological uptake. High river discharge rates and efficient, natural processes of reaeration maintain high oxygen saturation levels. With the exception of an increase in bacterial count, the discharge of municipal waste into the Mississippi River in Louisiana appears to have had no significant effect on water quality, a finding consistent with the earlier U.S. Geological Survey study of Wells (1980). It would be highly desirable for future mass balance studies if existing water quality programs on the Mississippi River were to adopt a Lagrangian sampling approach.     

Interpretative matrices approach to ranking lake sub-basin pollution potential: an applied study in Brazil

In 2005 a Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii bloom occurred in the Rio Verde Lake Basin (Brazil). To address this concern, a field analysis was performed to measure physicochemical variables and flows in 14 sub-basins, between 2008 and 2009. Measurements of mean total P (0.039 mg/L ± 0.018 mean SD), mean total Kjeldahl N (0.260 mg/L ± 0.226 mean SD), and mean BOD (1.2 mg/L ± 0.4 mean SD) concentrations were low in most streams, while COD reached a high of 27.1 mg/L (±4.9 mean SD). One tributary was responsible for 85 % of TP load, 77.1 % of TKN load, 78 % of t-BOD load, and 79 % of t-COD load. These concentrations and loads were used to develop the pollution potential assessment matrix (2PAM), which considered three different perspectives: stream water quality, reservoir ecosystem equilibrium, and sub-basin management. Each factor (TP, TKN, BOD and COD) was weighted based on concentration, total load and unit-area load. Pollution potential differed depending on which perspective was considered. The matrix developed, 2PAM, provides a new way to analyze concentrations and loads, enabling basin managers to prioritize action plans according to desired use within the basin.     

Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River

Accurate prediction of the chemical constituents in major river systems is a necessary task for water quality management, aquatic life well-being and the overall healthcare planning of river systems. In this study, the capability of a newly proposed hybrid forecasting model based on the firefly algorithm (FFA) as a metaheuristic optimizer, integrated with the multilayer perceptron (MLP-FFA), is investigated for the prediction of monthly water quality in Langat River basin, Malaysia. The predictive ability of the MLP-FFA model is assessed against the MLP-based model. To validate the proposed MLP-FFA model, monthly water quality data over a 10-year duration (2001–2010) for two different hydrological stations (1L04 and 1L05) provided by the Irrigation and Drainage Ministry of Malaysia are used to predict the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and dissolved oxygen (DO). The input variables are the chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphate (PO₄), total solids, potassium (K), sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N). The proposed hybrid model is then evaluated in accordance with statistical metrics such as the correlation coefficient (r), root-mean-square error, % root-mean-square error and Willmott’s index of agreement. Analysis of the results shows that MLP-FFA outperforms the equivalent MLP model. Also, in this research, the uncertainty of a MLP neural network model is analyzed in relation to the predictive ability of the MLP model. To assess the uncertainties within the MLP model, the percentage of observed data bracketed by 95 percent predicted uncertainties (95PPU) and the band width of 95 percent confidence intervals (d-factors) are selected. The effect of input variables on BOD and DO prediction is also investigated through sensitivity analysis. The obtained values bracketed by 95PPU show about 77.7%, 72.2% of data for BOD and 72.2%, 91.6% of data for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. The d-factors have a value of 1.648, 2.269 for BOD and 1.892, 3.480 for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. Based on the values in both stations for the 95PPU and d-factor, it is concluded that the neural network model has an acceptably low degree of uncertainty applied for BOD and DO simulations. The findings of this study can have important implications for error assessment in artificial intelligence-based predictive models applied for water resources management and the assessment of the overall health in major river systems.     

Water pollution sources assessment by multivariate statistical methods in the Tahtali Basin,Turkey

In this study, multivariate statistical methods including factor, principal component and cluster analysis were applied to surface water quality data sets obtained from the Tahtali River Basin, Turkey. Factor and principal components analysis results revealed that surface water quality was mainly controlled by agricultural uses and domestic discharges. Cluster analysis generated two clusters. Based on the locations of the sites consisted by each cluster and variable concentrations at these stations, it was concluded that agricultural discharges strongly affected north and northeast part of the region. These methods are believed to assist water managers to understand complex nature of water quality issues and determine priorities to improve water quality.     

昆明盆地孔隙水的化学特征及其演化规律

昆明盆地为一碳酸盐岩基底背景上形成的断陷盆地.研究区内孔隙水中Ca²+、HCO₃^-在阳、阴离子中占有绝对优势,水化学类型以HCO₃-Ca、HCO₃-Ca·Mg、HCO₃·Cl-Ca等为主.受不同区域人为活动影响,地下水各离子组分空间分异较大,水化学类型由盆地边缘向盆地中心呈现出复杂化.在平面上,从盆地边缘向盆地中部的冲湖积平原方向,地下水矿化度具有东西过渡分带的特点,以矣六乡-小板桥-巫家坝-联盟镇为界,东部矿化度较低,西部则相对偏高.20年来,随城市化进程的加快,孔隙水水质的演变朝着正负两方面发展,盆地西山、草海一带生态环境有所好转,地下水矿化度在逐年降低,而地下水恶化的区间向着城市的外围边缘转移.冲湖积平原区,地下水矿化度变化不大.地下水化学类型的变异在很大程度上显示了地表土地利用方式的改变对地下水环境演变的影响.因子分析法的结果表明,地下水中Mg²⁺、HCO₃^-、Ca²⁺、Na⁺、Cl^-、SO₄^2-等离子的来源很大程度上显示自然演化的结果,而NO₃^-、K⁺、PO4^3-等离子的来源主要受农业和生活污水的影响.地下水化学组分中Mg²⁺、Na⁺、Cl^-、SO4^2-和K⁺同时受到自然作用和外界污染的影响,以COD为代表的工业污染在一定程度上影响了地下水中Cl^-、SO₄^2-和K⁺的浓度及其分布.     

中国东部不同特征小流域水文对比观测试验分析

为探讨中国东部地区变化环境下水循环演变机制,通过水文站网加密观测、构建不同特征试验流域等方法,揭示了不同土地利用和不同城镇化水平下水文要素分布及响应规律。结果表明:①小流域内场次极端降雨局部差异较大,主要受到微地形和风向的影响。②鄞江镇试验流域水位涨幅和单位雨量水位涨幅均高于天然画龙溪试验流域,主要受到了流域大小和城镇化率等因素的影响。③城镇用地和耕地土壤水消退过程较快,林地退水过程相对较慢;浅层10cm、20cm和40cm土壤含水率对降雨滞后响应时间分别为0~0.25h、0.25~0.75h和0.5~0.75h,而深层(60cm和80cm)土壤含水率由于受到优势流的影响,响应较为复杂,响应时间变动范围较大。④小流域地下水对降雨的响应存在滞后性,响应时间为6.5~12h。     

GIS-based impact assessment of land-use changes on groundwater quality: study from a rapidly urbanizing region of South India

This study attempts to assess the influence of changing land-use patterns on the groundwater quality of the hard rock aquifer system in the Maheshwaram watershed, near Hyderabad, India. The study area is a rapidly urbanizing region with land development progressing at a fast pace. To study the impact of this rapid urbanization and overall land-use transition, a groundwater quality index (GQI) was prepared within a geographical information system (GIS). The GQI integrates the different water quality parameters to give a final index value that can be used for spatio-temporal comparisons. The land-use transitions were closely monitored from 2003 to 2008 using multispectral satellite images. The land-use pattern has changed drastically with an increase in the built-up area at the expense of other land uses. The analysis reveals a rapid deterioration of groundwater quality related mainly to the increase in built-up land with unsewered sanitation and poultry farms. Seasonal variability of the groundwater quality was also assessed. Mean GQI decreased from 84.16 to 83.26 over a period of 5 years from 2003 to 2008, while seasonal variability of water quality increased. GQI and Seasonal Variability of water quality were integrated in GIS to yield a groundwater sustainability map, in terms of water quality. Zones of sustainable and unsustainable groundwater use were demarcated for better decision making related to municipal land allotment in this rapidly urbanizing region.     

Drought as an agri-environmental determinant of irrigation land: the case of Bardenas (Spain)

Irrigated agriculture is causing certain deterioration of the quality of rivers and aquifers. The objective of this study is to analyse the agri-environmental repercussions caused by climatic changes in a typical irrigated land in the Ebro valley (Spain). The irrigation efficiency and agri-environmental impact in a basin of irrigated land (95 ha) were compared for two hydrological years with different pluviometry [October 2000/September 2001 (526 mm/year) vs. October 2004/September 2005 (211 mm/year)]. For this end, water balances were carried out in every plot and the quantity and quality (salinity and nitrates) of the water circulating through the drainage of the basin were gauged. The results indicate that in 2004/2005 farmers adjusted the irrigation doses better on each irrigation occasion, thus diminishing the fraction of drainage of the same (50% vs. 31%) and increasing the consumptive water use efficiency (56% vs. 79%). Nevertheless, the drought of 2004/2005 determined inappropriate irrigation management as the crops suffered a greater hydric deficit (3% vs. 23%). In 2004/2005, drainage waters presented higher electric conductivity (0.92 dS/m vs. 0.94 dS/m) and smaller nitrate concentration (96 mg/l vs. 74 mg/l). Last year, 55, 54 and 65% less of water, salts and N–NO₃⁻, respectively, were exported in the drainage. The lesser environmental impact in the year 2004/2005 was influenced by more appropriate use of water and agrichemical resources. Nevertheless, it is necessary to continue optimizing agricultural practices, mainly irrigation and fertilization, in order to minimize nitrate pollution and to confront years of drought.     

2005-2015年贵阳市生境退化程度对土地利用变化的响应

基于2005和2015年贵阳市土地利用数据,利用InVEST模型,分析了2005-2015年贵阳市生境退化程度对土地利用变化的响应,结果表明:（1）2005-2015年贵阳市城镇建设用地、农村居民点和有林地大幅增加,水田和旱地大幅下降,其他地类变化相对较小;水田和旱地转化为城镇建设用地、农村居民点和有林地最为突出;（2）10年间,贵阳市生境退化程度以下降为主,生境退化程度增加区主要分布在南部,下降区主要分布在北部、东部和西部;（3）生境退化程度热点变化以低值减少和高值减少为主;生境退化程度热点空间变化主要分布于南部。退耕还林政策及快速城镇化引起的水田和旱地转化为有林地、城镇建设用地和农村居民点是导致该区生境退化程度变化的主要因素。      

Groundwater quality in the lower Varuna River basin,Varanasi district,Uttar Pradesh

The lower Varuna River basin in Varanasi district situated in the central Ganga plain is a highly productive agricultural area, and is also one of the fast growing urban areas in India. The agricultural and urbanization activities have a lot of impact on the groundwater quality of the study area. The river basin is underlain by Quaternary alluvial sediments consisting of clay, silt, sand and gravel of various grades. The hydrogeochemical study was undertaken by randomly collecting 75 groundwater samples from dug wells and hand pumps covering the entire basin in order to understand the sources of dissolved ions, and to assess the chemical quality of the groundwater through analysis of major ions. Based on the total dissolved solids, two groundwater samples are considered unsuitable for drinking purpose, but all samples are useful for irrigation. Graphical treatment of major ion chemistry by Piper diagram helps in identifying hydro-geochemical facies of groundwaters and the dominant hydrochemical facies is Ca-Mg-HCO₃ with appreciable percentage of the water having mixed facies. As per Wilcox’s diagram and US Salinity laboratory classification, most of the groundwater samples are suitable for irrigation except two samples (No’s 30 and 68) which are unsuitable due to the presence of high salinity and medium sodium hazard. Irrigation waters classified based on residual sodium carbonate, have revealed that all groundwaters are in general safe for irrigation except one sample (No. 27), which needs treatment before use. Permeability index indicates that the groundwater samples are suitable for irrigation purpose. Although the general quality of groundwater of the lower Varuna River basin is suitable for irrigation purpose, fifty seven percent of the samples are found having nitrate content more than permissible limit (>45 mg/l) which is not good for human consumption. Application of N-Fertilizers on agricultural land as crop nutrients along the Varuna River course may be responsible for nitrate pollution in the groundwater due to leaching by applied irrigation water. The other potential sources of high nitrate concentration in extreme northern, southern and southwestern parts of study area are poor sewerage and drainage facilities, leakage of human excreta from very old septic tanks, and sanitary landfills. The high fluoride contamination (>1.5 mg/l) in some of the samples may be due to the dissolution of micaceous content in the alluvium. Nitrate and fluoride contamination of groundwater is a serious problem for its domestic use. Hence an immediate protective measure must be put into action in the study area.     

Simulation of nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Dongjiang River basin in South China using SWAT

Population growth, urbanization, and intensified agriculture have resulted in mobilization of nitrogen and phosphorus, which is the main cause of river water quality deterioration. Environmental regulation has expedited the necessity for agricultural producers to design and implement more environmentally suitable practices. Therefore, there is a need to identify critical nutrients and their loss/transport potential. Watershed model can be used to better understand the relationship between land use activities/management and hydrologic processes/water quality changes that occur within a watershed. The objective of the study is to test the performance of the SWAT model and the feasibility of using this model as a simulator of water flow and nitrogen and phosphorus yields over the Dongjiang River basin in South China. Spatial data layers of land slope, soil type, and land use were combined with geographic information system (GIS) to aid in creating model inputs. The observed streamflow and sediment at Boluo station in the Dongjiang River basin were used to calibrate and validate the model. Time series plots and statistical measures were used to verify model predictions. Predicted values generally matched well with the observed values during calibration and validation (R ²≥0.6 and Nash-Suttcliffe Efficiency ≥0.5) except for underestimation of sediment peaks and overestimation of sediment valleys at Boluo. This study shows that SWAT is able to predict streamflow, sediment generation, and nutrients transport with satisfactory results.     

Land subsidence and declining water resources in Quetta Valley, Pakistan

Extensive groundwater withdrawals in urban areas may cause water shortages, land subsidence, and water quality problems. The Quetta Valley is the largest population center in Balochistan province in western Pakistan. This area is arid and groundwater is the main water source for domestic and agricultural use. This work presents global positioning system (GPS) data and assessment of spatial and temporal variations in water levels. GPS data from two stations from mid-2006 to the beginning of 2009 show subsidence rate of 10 cm\year. Nine satellite images from 1975 to 2009 were classified and processed to quantify land cover and land use changes, which highlight an increase in agricultural areas in the central region of the Quetta Valley, as well as reduced vegetation on mountains. These data correspond to gradual temporal changes in water volumes in streams and lakes. Average temperatures have also increased and mean precipitation has decreased during this period. However, the greatest change in this area has been in population growth, which rose from 260,000 in 1975 to 1.2 million in 2010, mainly due to migration of refugees from war-torn neighboring Afghanistan. The Quetta Valley provides a good example for studying the impact of urbanization on water resources.     

辽宁省气温变化趋势中的城市化影响研究

利用1961 - 2017年逐日平均、 最低、 最高气温资料、 DMSP/OLS卫星夜晚灯光数据, 定量分析了城市化对辽宁省平均气温和极端气温指数趋势变化的影响。研究表明： 辽宁省气温呈显著增加趋势, 城市站增温速率明显快于乡村站; 平均最低气温增温率最快, 平均气温次之, 平均最高气温相对较慢; 四季增温速率依次为： 冬季>春季>秋季>夏季; 最低气温的城市化影响贡献率最大, 平均气温次之, 最高气温相对较小; 城市站最低气温的明显升高和最高气温增幅较小, 必将导致日较差明显减小和日较差城市化影响贡献率的增大。城市化加剧了辽宁省极端低温事件的显著减少和极端高温事件的明显增加, 城市化对极端气温事件影响显著。与冷事件有关的极端气温指数的城市化影响均为负值, 与暖事件有关的均为正值; 相对指数的城市化影响贡献率较大, 持续时间指数次之, 除气温日较差以外的绝对指数相对较小。基于最低气温的极端气温指数比基于最高气温的极端气温指数受城市化影响更显著, 其原因可能是城市热岛强度的非对称性以及城市站和乡村站气溶胶浓度之间的差异, 导致最高气温的增加没有最低气温的增加显著。     

A satellite based assessment of the impact of urban expansion around a lagoon

This paper examines the coastal regional trends in urbanization processes using remotely sensed images around the Kucukcekmece Lagoon as a case study, located in the western part of Istanbul, Turkey. Throughout the examination process, the coastline changes are determined for a long-term period. To achieve this goal, post-classification comparison method is applied to the CORONA and LANDSAT TM satellite images of 1963, 1987 and 2005. In order to identify the land use changes, common landscape structures in the region were distinguished as water, green and open land, urban and industrial areas. Due to the mix up of land-cover types between urban and industrial areas, the classified images are integrated with geographic information system data obtained from visual interpretation of the enhanced images and auxiliary data sets. The results of the change analyses in coastal region showed that important alterations are taking place in the area due to the unplanned urban and industrial expansions that has irreversibly changed the physical features of the Kucukcekmece Lagoon. According to image classification results, the urban land use area increased from 2 % oftotal area in 1963 to 38 % in 1987 and 46 % in 2005, most of which converted from agricultural and greenlands. At the same time, the ecological impact of the loss of specific land covers is highlighted based on the results of the land use changes and the previous scientific applications. Furthermore, some recommendations are given to planners, decision makers and politicians to maintain the sustainable coastal ecosystem management.     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

Spatial assessment of salinity and nitrate pollution in Amman Zarqa Basin: a case study

Intensive use of land resources in arid and semi-arid regions exert serious pressures on groundwater resources and jeopardize further socio-economical developments. The Amman-Zarqa Basin (AZB), the most vital basin in Jordan, is facing recent groundwater deterioration due to a very large increase in water demands for domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. The objectives of this paper were to quantify the degree of contamination in the basin by evaluating the characteristics, distribution and seasonal variations of two pollution indicators (nitrate concentration and salinity) and to determine the impacts of human activities (land use) on groundwater quality. Based upon long-term data (1970–2005) of groundwater samples collected from 538 wells across the AZB, spatial analyses indicated that both indicators have a strong spatial dependence and are anisotropically distributed. Prediction maps of Ordinary Kriging and Indicator Kriging provided detailed indications of the major and minor sources of pollution in the basin. Inefficient wastewater treatment plants, industrial activities and agricultural practices were responsible for 91, 85, and 25% salinization of nearby wells, respectively. Nitrate pollution had reached 73% above threshold (50 mg/L) in some cases. The temporal analyses estimated the salinity buildup rate to be around 8 × 10⁻² μS/cm per day, while nitrate buildup rate was estimated to be around 6 × 10⁻² mg/L per day. Remote sensing and spatial analyses helped greatly in groundwater quality assessment not only in providing the environmental status of the AZB but also in delineating the potential of contamination risk zones and their correlation to human activities. Furthermore, the paper suggests some environmental protection strategies that should be adopted to protect the vital groundwater resources of the basin from further deterioration.     

Oxygen isotope and geochemical variations in the Missouri River

Oxygen isotope ratios in streamflow of the Missouri River basin vary geographically due to differences in source precipitation and the integration of waters from upstream regions. Average '¹⁸O values in the Missouri River main stem systematically increase from less than -17‰ in the headwaters to about -9‰ in the lower basin. Seasonal variations at a given location result from fluctuations in meteoric precipitation, residence time in reservoirs and groundwater systems, evaporation, and snowmelt. Average water chemistry values are successfully predicted for the upstream stations of two reaches on the lower Missouri River based on changes in discharge along each reach and water quality measurements collected at the downstream stations. Source regions for some dissolved ions found in the lower Missouri River are also identified. Sodium and sulfate originate predominantly from the basin above Sioux City, Iowa, while nitrate is largely derived from agricultural regions below Sioux City.     

贵阳市城镇化进程与土地利用转变关系

贵阳市岩溶地貌十分发育,可利用土地资源缺乏,城镇化发展与土地利用相互制约.基于贵阳市2001~2014年城镇化指标数据及1996、2001、2004、2009、2016年五期遥感影像数据,采用指标权重法和土地利用类型转移矩阵,分析了2001~2014年贵阳市城镇化发展趋势和1996~2016年土地利用的时空分布特征及演变规律.并运用相关性分析方法建立函数响应度模型,探讨了城镇化与土地利用之间的作用关系.结果表明:（1）2001~2014年间,贵阳市城镇化水平呈上升趋势,综合城镇化得分增长率为52.46%,其中人口（26.0%）、生态（20.4%）、空间（19.9%）和经济（18.3%）城镇化对综合城镇化贡献较大,社会（15.4%）城镇化相对较小;（2）贵阳市农用地、建设用地面积增加,净增长总量23.66%,未利用土地面积减少,净减少总量23.56%,土地利用类型总变化量为87.77%;（3）城镇化进程推动着土地利用的变迁,2001~2014年水田（13.767响应度）、裸地（4.476）、旱地（1.708）、灌木（1.319）土地利用类型对城镇化的综合响应度较高,乔木（0.897）、草地（0.878）、建设用地（0.693）、水域（0.180）相对较低.城镇用地面积的快速扩张是土地利用类型转变的直接因素.因此,建议在城镇化进程中,优化土地利用结构,以提高土地资源利用效率,保证城镇化进程可持续发展.      

Geo-environmental evaluation of Wadi El Raiyan Lakes,Egypt, using remote sensing and trace element techniques

Wadi El Raiyan depression represents a discharge area of excess wastewater from the Faiyum province. It comprises two lakes: the upper lake connects the lower one through a channel. The intensive agriculture in the area hazardously affects both lakes. To assess the status of these lakes, this work studies the change detection using image classification and post-classification comparison, physicochemical parameters, concentration of trace elements, and microbiological contents. The classified images indicate a maintained constant area of the upper lake from 1990 to 2012 and decreased by 1.6% in 2014. The lower lake area increased by 4.8% between 1990 and 2001, then decreased till 2014 and increased again by 8.4% in 2015. The change detection concluded that the lake could be disappeared by 2019 if the exploitation of water from the upper lake continues, or the lake could be rebounded if the government planned to increase the recharge. The factor analysis implies that the total Fe, Mn, Ni, Ba, and As are controlled by pH–Eh relationship, Cu by TDS, Pb by temperature, while Cd is attributed to anthropogenic factor. The upper and lower lake samples exhibit biological oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) values lower than fish farm samples. The high BOD and COD values were coupled by high nitrate contents in the studied water samples. The cultivated land drains and the fish farms samples have total coliform (TC) and fecal coliform (FC) higher than the samples collected from the upper lake.     

An integrated methodology to assess future water resources under land use and climate change: an application to the Tahadart drainage basin (Morocco)

The assessment of freshwater resources in a drainage basin is not only dependent on its hydrologic parameters but also on the socio-economic system driving development in the watershed area; the socio-economic aspect, that is often neglected in hydrologic studies, is one of the novelties of this study. The aim of this paper is twofold: (1) presenting an integrated working methodology and (2) studying a local case of a North African watershed where scarce field data are available. Using this integrated methodology, the effects of climate and land use change on the water resources and the economic development of the Tahadart drainage basin in Northern Morocco have been evaluated. Water salinization, tourism, urbanization, and water withdrawals are a threat to water resources that will increase with future climate change. The Tahadart Basin (Morocco 1,145 km²) is characterized by rain-fed agriculture and by the presence of two water retention basins. Assessment of the effects of climate and land use change on this drainage basin was based on current and future land cover maps obtained from spatial interactions models, climate data (current and future; scenario A1b for the period 2080–2100), and hydrological models for water budget calculations. Land use suitability maps were designed assuming a A1b Special Report on Emissions Scenarios socio-economic development scenario. The most important conclusions for the period 2080–2100 are the following: (1) Freshwater availability within the watershed will likely be affected by a strong increase in evaporation from open water surface bodies due to increased temperature. This increase in evaporation will limit the amount of freshwater that can be stored in the surface reservoirs. (2) Sea level rise will cause flooding and salinization of the coastal area. (3) The risk for drought in winter is likely to increase. The methodology used in this paper is integrated into a decision support tool that is used to quantify change in land use and water resources.